The L$ Pop Was Great! Now I'm Selling!

so you lost 199k? poor thing.

Hi,

I understand your post. Thanks.

I'm not trying to panic people although I can not prove that to you. I simply want it to be known that I called the proper sale rate. I doubt typing anything on these boards makes much of if any difference on the market. I mean hell, 20% of SL doesn't even use the limit orders.

Whatever the situation, right now is the best time to sell. Just wait until Wed and all of you will be thinking, "damn, that Pan guy was right." If I'm wrong, I'll be eating my virtual hat, as I stated before.

I wish I had 199K to lose, thus the "if."

Ok, IT IS NOW 11PM EASTERN AND THE POP IS AT 7,714! This is the last chance to sell at this great rate! Once the pop for the day starts going down that is it. Tomorrow people will be at parties and thus no demand and Wed it is back to work, not to mention the end of the rebalancing, the stipends which come out tomorrow and everything else I've mentioned a million times. The only thing that could stop this ( for 12-24 hours) is if a MASSIVE number of people got online in world tomorrow for the 4th rather than party. I doubt that. As everyone on here has asked me to do, I won’t yell SELL! but rather politely tell you that you should sell now if you want the best rate. If you don’t care about losing a few L$ per 1USD then go ahead and wait. No big loss or anything. But this is by far the best time to sell in SL's recent history. Good luck!

Anyone still think this isn't the self-proclaimed "SL's Top Economic Mind"? lol

Ok... Personally I would have said "I believe thet this is the best sell rate" but I figure we've got that pretty much clarified by now.
A hell of a lot better...

Now, we can have a proper discussion rather than "I'm right! No, I'm right!" kind of slanging match.


The thing I see is the connection you make between the inworld population and demand for L$... although there might be a vague connection, there are a lot of other factors that are also connected and will have an effect. (as you mentioned, the stipend every week is a pretty big one)
The problem is, we're running on a way different set of conditions now to the past, so using the past to predict the future is going to be inaccurate, to say the least. (point of interest, the rise over the last month has been on mondays, as though people are selling to beat the stipend rise... which then fails to appear as it's already risen more than the stipend would fuel)

What we have now is an interesting set of conditions... day traders keeping the pressure up to strengthen the L$, slowly reducing amounts of stipends, (as older basics stop playing/accounts get abandoned) no more dwell, ever increasing numbers of new basics who need money... all contributing to the demand for L$.
On the other hand, we've got Stipends (in slowly reducing amounts) and the strengthening of the L$, (leading people to be more inclined to sell) both contributing some pressure against the current trend of the L$.

Overall, no-one can even be sure of what it's going to do long term, as the conditions haven't been in place long enough to gather enough long-term data to base our predictions on. (that, by the way, is where RBD and JB came unstuck... they insisted on using the old conditions to predict the new Lindex behaviour)
All we can do is give our opinions and hope that we're right... until such time as we have the data to work from. Then we can start to make some fairly accurate predictions...

However... I do agree that we will likely see some fall in value over the next couple of days... given how Stipend days have been recently, I do doubt it'll be more than a few points over the curse of 24 hours before returning to normal again. That's the pattern over the last month, so it's becoming a recognisable trend.

*sigh* and I thought you'd stopped with the intense "YOU MUST LISTEN TO ME NOW" rhetoric... seems I was wrong.

As I said, there has NOT been enough time since all the changes to gather enough useful data to make any kind of accurate medium term predictions... hell, it's not useful for even short-term ones...

And again, even with people working, wed, thurs and fri have ALL seen the value strengthen since the changes stablised... so people being at work doesn't mean the value will drop. Please try to understand this and learn from this mistake.

What was that middle bit again?

To me it looks like the $L is breaking out of its old trend into a new trend. It seems like there would be risk in assuming this is the time to sell just because of the stipend. As others have pointed out, the day traders jumping on the bandwagon of this new trend could keep the value rising. Then again they may all become afraid of the stipend and it will fall. Its really doesn't seem like the best time to predict the direction, as there are so many factors to make emotions fickle on both sides right now.

Good post. Yes, I feel we will have a stop in the gain of the L$ after tonight's population starts to go down and then I feel the L$ will lose about 3-5 points before slowly starting to lose value again, like before, but at a slower rate. That's it. Why? All the points I mentioned in earlier posts.

Not unless the population continues to grow faster than the loss of value of the L caused by the ads (Stipends, etc.). I doubt this will happen. I'm talking long term here. In the short term you'd want to sell now no matter what. After the adjustment and the big pop of new players subsides, the linden will start to lose value again but slower than before. Starting just about now.

Sadly the value could stay at what it is wit hthe stipend in place if they wanted it to and i think that has pretty much been proven in the last month. Who is going to keep arguing that the volume of the L is the problem after it went from like 330L > 1usd to 300L > 1 usd in 1 months time. All I seem to see happening right now was people gaining some confidence because LL just happene to get rid of a very small amount of L in circulation. Now for people that have been here over the last year and were here for the ratings bonuses care to elaborate how payments on a weekly basis actually are driving the value down because im not seeing it.

Last year the amount per user was almost triple what it is now really and the value of L was a bit more stable then it is now. LindEx was then created and GOM was shut down this caused some panic and the value started dropping heavily around that time and never realyl recovered. You also then had people scared when the linden's stated being able to sell their own L on the LindEx. The era of the L dropping was mainly due to a panic that really had nothing to do with economics but was rather mainly in people's minds and probably wouldnt of happened if LL didnt open their own currency exchange. Things take time people need to adjust and i think they finally have fully adjusted to LindEx and i think LL has done a good job bolstering some confidence back into the system.

I think its been proven over the last month quite abundantly that the money coming into SL isnt the problem (vast majority comes from premium stipends which we all still get). There is still a bunch of Volume pouring into SL and the value jumped up. I think in the future we are more likely to see a sliding scale more then in the past it'll go up and down and its highly unlikely that it will drop or increase dramatically unless a bunch of people work to try and do that or lose patience. I also think lindex could use some language flips the stuff kind of seems backwards from a seller standpoint.

Still a few more hours to sell. If we are REALLY lucky the in game population and thus demand will stay high on the 4th while all the Americans are home, but I doubt it due to the fact Americans love to drink massive amounts of that watered down crap they consider to be beer on the 4th of July. Sell now or within the next few hours to get the best deal or before the stipends are paid tomorrow at the latest! Sell and good luck!

I'd say you HAVE to be right now. Can't get any or much better than this. Sell!

You've been pushing people to SELL NOW for 24 hours aready.. good lord... stop posting it already.

You said the Linden would start to fall at 11pm EASTERN time... it's 11pm PACIFIC time and the Linden is still slowly gaining. Mostly because people ARE selling now.

The linden will reach 295 tonight, with a chance to hit 294 before morning.

Now that's flood ...

And at least 250 by sunday.

There should be a penalty for being unoriginal in starting threads and rehashing the same subject over and over.

Frontal lobotomy comes to mind. ^^

Yea right. It will be in the 300s by Wed. I can post all I want. If you don't like it, skip my posts or ignor me. But I'd sell now if I where you. Even with peak population the Linden has stopped gaining and is now only losing ground. Timmmmber!

310 by next Sunday.

or forever hold your peace. The Linden looks to be maxed now. Its been at the same rate all day and now the stipends are being added. Looks like it is time for the day traders to start dumping!

Change the record... it's still gaining value...


Ok, so it's slow, but it's still gaining.

:edit: You do realise we WILL hold you to that last prediction?

This thread "Time To SELL!" seems to be a direct continuation of "The L$ Pop Was Great! Now I'm Selling!". Since it is on the same topic and by the same poster, I shall merge them.

Consolidating this thread into other "Sell" threads.

EDIT:
The thread merge was to deal with spam threads all on the same topic (as spamming the forums is against forum policy).

I was bored tonight and decided to look into just who Pan Fan is. In the first place Pan has a huge amount of knowledge about SL for a "new" resident who is 2 days old. Somebody who posts here frequently accuses RBD of being an alt of Jamie Bergman. Taking that as a starting point I researched all three accounts. Jamie Bergman is a real resident who actually plays the game but most of you already know that (I didn't so started from scratch). ReserveBank Division joined both SL and the forum the same day, Jamie was actually 1 day apart. When you look at RBD's profile ingame you find a person who has been a member of the forum since 1/16/2006 and apparently only entered the game itself to enter this in his profile "We Run Our Bank Like Scottish Bankers." He has no ratings, never given any ratings, is a member of no groups, has not entered anything else in his profile, hence he was created to just post opinions on the forums.

Pan Fan's profile looks identical to RBD's with the exception that it appears he has never entered the game at all because his ingame profile is completely blank. I skimmed a few other profiles of people posting in Pan's thread and found all were active players even ones only 2 or 3 weeks old. Conclusion; RBD could very well be Jamie Bergman and since Pan Fan has a profile identical to RBD's and expresses exactly the same opinions could very well be Jamie/RBD.