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Ginko Financial

blaze Spinnaker
1/2 Serious
Join date: 12 Aug 2004
Posts: 5,898
11-18-2005 09:29
I believe the interest rate is 0.15% per week.

So, compound (1.0015)^52 for one year.
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Taken from The last paragraph on pg. 16 of Cory Ondrejka's paper "Changing Realities: User Creation, Communication, and Innovation in Digital Worlds :

"User-created content takes the idea of leveraging player opinions a step further by allowing them to effectively prototype new ideas and features. Developers can then measure which new concepts most improve the products and incorporate them into the game in future patches."
Michael Seraph
Second Life Resident
Join date: 9 Nov 2004
Posts: 849
11-18-2005 09:34
From: Tren Neva
I at not point suggested that you were a Ginko customer, nor did I ever attack anyone asking question. I asked that if you had questions, that would you please send them in IM or on our forums, and not try to turn each post into "its a scam because they didn't answer this"



Really, then you didn't post the following in response to Anshe's post?

From: Tren Neva
you started this thread to try to ruin Ginkos name {Ginko Bank has been around for about a year, so I'm curious why this sudden vigilante against us}. Using snide remarks and trying to make everything sound negative...


Seems like an attack to me. You definitely say that Anshe is trying to ruin Ginko's name by asking the simple question, "How's it possible to have such huge returns on investments."
Jonny Dingo
An den, an den, an den...
Join date: 24 Feb 2005
Posts: 42
11-18-2005 09:39
From: Michael Seraph
Really, then you didn't post the following in response to Anshe's post?



Seems like an attack to me. You definitely say that Anshe is trying to ruin Ginko's name by asking the simple question, "How's it possible to have such huge returns on investments."



Michael why dont you post something worth reading? All your comments are negative and make very little sence nor hold and importance at all. Give it a break.
Tiger Crossing
The Prim Maker
Join date: 18 Aug 2003
Posts: 1,560
11-18-2005 09:42
EDIT: The following post is all kinds of wrong (I need more sleep) and should be ignored.
From: someone

OMG! I did make an error in my first examples...

I didn't factor in the compound interest!

I was very wrong and very, VERY underestimating the worst case senario: That of no one withdrawing and L$250,000 going into the system every day. WITH the compound interest, at the end of 64 days, 16 million L$ will have been given to me, total, and I would need to have made 1,000,000,000,000,000 US dollars to pay everyone off. Again, this is with NO withdrawls. Absoulte worst-case senario. I forget how to pronounce 1,000 trillion properly...

EDIT: Scratch this one... Made me doubt my calculations and I over-reacted. Knock 3 zeros of that number... It's only 1 trillion.

Just remember the fable of the little old chess master and the emperor. The emperor wanted the chess master to teach him, and the man agreed. For payment, we wanted a single grain of rice today, to be placed on the first square of the chess board. The next day of lessons, he wanted twice as many grains of rice on the second square, and so on. When every square on the board was filled in this manner, the lessons would be over and the emperor would know all of the master's secrets. The emperor agreed.

His empire ran out of rice long before they got to the end of the 64 lessons, and he never learned the master's secrets.

That was 50% daily interest.


EDIT: And if it IS 15% a week instead of per day, then yes, the numbers don't get as large as fast, but they still get very large before long. The money has to come from SOMEWHERE. Eventually, at those rates more L$ will be earned in interest than have ever been created by Linden Lab. The system HAS to end before that.
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Sneak Dulce
Mentor
Join date: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 49
11-18-2005 09:51
TIger, your numbers are off, and you need to know more about how much that Ginko does gain a day in deposits, and then also, take into account that people are withdrawing at the same time as depositing, so I find it very improbable that they are gaining 250,000 into such an account, and then not having anyone take out any of their money. So please, do not throw around numbers unless they are being used properly. You have tried three times, and gotten the wrong number each of those times.
blaze Spinnaker
1/2 Serious
Join date: 12 Aug 2004
Posts: 5,898
11-18-2005 09:52
From: Tiger Crossing

EDIT: And if it IS 15% a week instead of per day


No, actually, it's 0.15% interest a week :)
_____________________
Taken from The last paragraph on pg. 16 of Cory Ondrejka's paper "Changing Realities: User Creation, Communication, and Innovation in Digital Worlds :

"User-created content takes the idea of leveraging player opinions a step further by allowing them to effectively prototype new ideas and features. Developers can then measure which new concepts most improve the products and incorporate them into the game in future patches."
Tiger Crossing
The Prim Maker
Join date: 18 Aug 2003
Posts: 1,560
11-18-2005 10:17
EDIT: The following post is all kinds of wrong (I need more sleep) and should be ignored.
From: someone

Forget all of my long-range extrapolations, there are mistakes in there (like 15% a day, which WAS said earlier in this thread, but is incorrect), and -- as I said before -- has no bearing on any actual real-world or virtual-world system.

But still, the one-cycle example should have raised some warning flags.

L$16,000,000 or US$64,000
for one week at 15%
64,000 * 1.15 = 73,600
73,600 - 64,000 = 9,600

If you gave me 16 mil Lindens today, I would have to make US$9,600 this week to give back to you, along with your original US$64,000.

If you did the same the next week, including your profits, I'd have to make US$11,040.
73,600 * 1.15 = 84640
84,640 - 73600 = 11,040

If I made any mistakes, they should be obvious here, since all my math is in the message.

It can't be sustained. (If it could, don't you think real-world BANKS would do it?)
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Schwanson Schlegel
SL's Tokin' Villain
Join date: 15 Nov 2003
Posts: 2,721
11-18-2005 10:18
From: blaze Spinnaker
No, actually, it's 0.15% interest a week :)


TY Blaze
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Sneak Dulce
Mentor
Join date: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 49
11-18-2005 10:27
Once again... your numbers are way off... for the fourth time... 1.15.. is 15 percent a week, blaze himself has told you, that it is 0.15 percent a week.. so you might want to replace your 1.15 with 1.0015....
Travis Lambert
White dog, red collar
Join date: 3 Jun 2004
Posts: 2,819
11-18-2005 10:27
From: Tiger Crossing
Forget all of my long-range extrapolations, there are mistakes in there (like 15% a day, which WAS said earlier in this thread, but is incorrect), and -- as I said before -- has no bearing on any actual real-world or virtual-world system.

But still, the one-cycle example should have raised some warning flags.

L$16,000,000 or US$64,000
for one week at 15%
64,000 * 1.15 = 73,600
73,600 - 64,000 = 9,600

If you gave me 16 mil Lindens today, I would have to make US$9,600 this week to give back to you, along with your original US$64,000.

If you did the same the next week, including your profits, I'd have to make US$11,040.
73,600 * 1.15 = 84640
84,640 - 73600 = 11,040

If I made any mistakes, they should be obvious here, since all my math is in the message.

It can't be sustained. (If it could, don't you think real-world BANKS would do it?)


Tiger - The compound interest rate is not Fifteen Percent. It is point-one-five percent.

Anotherwords - .15% or .0015
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Flyingroc Chung
:)
Join date: 3 Jun 2004
Posts: 329
11-18-2005 10:29
From: blaze Spinnaker
I believe the interest rate is 0.15% per week.

So, compound (1.0015)^52 for one year.


I think the current interest rate for Ginko is 0.14% a *day*.
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Tiger Crossing
The Prim Maker
Join date: 18 Aug 2003
Posts: 1,560
11-18-2005 10:30
I need more sleep. This 10-hour work days with only one day off a week are killing my brain.
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Nicholas Portocarrero
Registered User
Join date: 13 Jul 2004
Posts: 237
11-18-2005 10:31
From: Tiger Crossing
*skips the rest of the thread after reading two pages and brings up Excel*


If L$250,000 was deposited each day, at 0.15 daily compound interest, and no one withdrew...

Then at the end of 2 months, 16 million L$ will have been collected. That equates to US$64,000 at current echange rate (1:250). To even be CAPABLE of honoring the terms should all investors choose to then cash out, the organization would need to have made a PROFIT off the invested money totaling a sum of US$2,173,500. That's US Dollars, not Linden Dollars (which of course would be half a billion).

If some percentage of participants withdraw their money over the course of that two months, the total sum will be less.

If it instead took twice as long, 4 months, to accrue the 16 million at a stedy rate with no withdrawls, the total necessary RL profit needed to cover all investors would be 4 million US dollars.


I personally don't know how to make 2 million US$ out of US$64,000 in two months.

Nor do I know how to make 4 million US$ out of the same 64 grand in four months.


If I did, I wouldn't play Second Life... I'd pay someone to play it for me.


What?? Your numbers make no sense at all.
Sneak Dulce
Mentor
Join date: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 49
11-18-2005 10:32
If you want to know, it works out to be around 90 dollars a day, maybe more, maybe less, starting next week.. I will be making much more than that in a day, and I am sure that any business savy person can manage to pay that interest.
Tiger Crossing
The Prim Maker
Join date: 18 Aug 2003
Posts: 1,560
11-18-2005 10:37
Forget all my posts. I was working off incorrect data, and making a stupid mistake to boot. My calculations are, for the most part, right, but only if pi = 3. Try it, you'll see.


...*goes to sleep under his desk*
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Shadow Garden
Just horsin' around
Join date: 17 Jul 2005
Posts: 226
11-18-2005 10:39
From: Tiger Crossing
Forget all my posts. I was working off incorrect data, and making a stupid mistake to boot. My calculations are, for the most part, right, but only if pi = 3. Try it, you'll see.


...*goes to sleep under his desk*



Now you see why I leave math to professionals! *giggle* The whole interest compounding thing confused me when I took accounting classes, confused me worse when I tried to do RL investments, and I finally gave up and gave it all to an investment counselor. :)
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Carl Metropolitan
Registered User
Join date: 7 Jul 2005
Posts: 1,031
11-18-2005 10:43
From: Nicholas Portocarrero
Is Berkshire Hattaway a pyramid scheme?

Annual Percentage
Change in Per-Share
Book Value of
Berkshire Hathaway

10.5 2004
21.0 2003
10.0 2002
(6.2) 2001
6.50 2000
0.50 1999
48.3 1998
34.1 1997
31.8 1996
43.1 1995
13.9 1994
14.3 1993
20.3 1992
39.6 1991
7.40 1990
44.4 1989
20.1 1988
19.5 1987
26.1 1986
48.2 1985
13.6 1984
32.3 1983
40.0 1982
31.4 1981
19.3 1980
35.7 1979
24.0 1978
31.9 1977
59.3 1976
21.9 1975
5.50 1974
4.70 1973
21.7 1972
16.4 1971
12.0 1970
16.2 1969
19.0 1968
11.0 1967
20.3 1966
23.8 1965

21.9 Average Annual Gain — 1965-2004

(from http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2004ar/2004ar.pdf Page 3)
Desmond Shang
Guvnah of Caledon
Join date: 14 Mar 2005
Posts: 5,250
11-18-2005 10:53
Consider any RL business making over 66% annually, but choosing to use Second Life as the vehicle to gain investors.


Disadvantages:

- ridiculously small pool of investors

- dependent upon the stability of $L

- cash-limited to the extreme



Advantages:

- ability to disappear overnight

- ability to gain small-time investors unlikely to sue due to small loss, big embarrassment, lack of understanding how to sue, or most likely all three

- ability to use offshore-from-USA financial companies like IGE to hide reporting

- fertile ground for a ponzi scheme that could grow for *years* before collapsing.




If such a shaky business model collapsed 'late in the game', then yes, it would affect every single one of us. Hard.

Regardless what the perpetrator thought he was doing - he could be the most righteous man on earth and it wouldn't matter.

But not many people would go for such a thing, destroying the entire economies and toppling governments, right?

*cough* All of Albania! *cough*
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blaze Spinnaker
1/2 Serious
Join date: 12 Aug 2004
Posts: 5,898
11-18-2005 10:54
From: Flyingroc Chung
I think the current interest rate for Ginko is 0.14% a *day*.


oh right

Sorry, my mind just has an impossible time with that number.
_____________________
Taken from The last paragraph on pg. 16 of Cory Ondrejka's paper "Changing Realities: User Creation, Communication, and Innovation in Digital Worlds :

"User-created content takes the idea of leveraging player opinions a step further by allowing them to effectively prototype new ideas and features. Developers can then measure which new concepts most improve the products and incorporate them into the game in future patches."
Waves Lightcloud
SexBall Safety Designer
Join date: 22 May 2004
Posts: 193
I can Believe I Ate The Whole Thing!!
11-18-2005 10:59
Took me an hour out of my day to read this entire thread. I had my mind made up within the first 10 minutes. I endured the remaining 50 minutes of pain just to read all the good mud slinging. Now my eyes are bleeding!!! Ack!! why oh why do I torture myself with this junk!!!!!
Flyingroc Chung
:)
Join date: 3 Jun 2004
Posts: 329
11-18-2005 11:12
Let's say we invested $1 in Ginko today... from their website, the interest is 0.14% per day.

Tomorrow, we would have
1 * 1.0014 = 1.0014$L

Day after tomorrow, we would have
1 * 1.0014 * 1.0014 = 1.0028 $L

Day after that we have:
1 * 1.0014 * 1.0014 * 1.0014 = 1.0042 $L

You should be able to see the pattern. We can see that the interest we get from ginko is:
(1 + r)^n

where r is the interest rate expressed as a fraction (e.g. currently 0.0014), and n is the number of days.

Ok, so assuming 0.14% a day is sustained, we see that:

in one year, we can get about 67% in interest (1.0014 ^ 365 = 1.666)
in 2 years, we more than double our money (1.0014 ^ (356 * 2) = 2.777)
in 4 years, we get more than 7x our initial deposit (1.0014 ^ (356 * 4) = 7.710)
in 8 years, we get more than 59x our initial deposit! (1.0014 ^ (356 * 8) = 59.450)

Now obviously (I hope) you can see how this interest rate is *not* sustainable over the long term. At best, you can hope for a good short-term runup.

The other thing you might want to think about is that the longer Ginko provides such high interest, the more difficult it becomes for them to make enough money to pay for interest.
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Sneak Dulce
Mentor
Join date: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 49
11-18-2005 11:23
And then you forgot to add in the constant interest rate drop that has been mentioned 4 or 5 times now, right?
Flyingroc Chung
:)
Join date: 3 Jun 2004
Posts: 329
11-18-2005 11:28
From: Sneak Dulce
And then you forgot to add in the constant interest rate drop that has been mentioned 4 or 5 times now, right?


Right, the fact that the interest rate has dropped 4 or 5 times now is just more evidence that the high interest rate is *not* sustainable.
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Sneak Dulce
Mentor
Join date: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 49
11-18-2005 11:29
It has been posted on the Ginko forums itself, this fact, before this post here started.

I've had people ask me persoanlly if it was true before this, if the interest rate was going to drop, I told them yes, and they seemed unhappy about it, but when I told them as Ginko continues to grow, the rate will have to decrease as it will get harder, and harder to keep paying such a high interest. And as this string continues, it seems that our customer base continues to grow.
Flyingroc Chung
:)
Join date: 3 Jun 2004
Posts: 329
11-18-2005 11:36
From: Sneak Dulce
It has been posted on the Ginko forums itself, this fact, before this post here started.


I do not dispute that Ginko has never claimed that the interest rate is sustainable. I'm just putting the math out here, expecially since there's some inaccurate numbers above (no offense Tiger -- we all make mistakes).
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