A call for ALL new land release to be URGENTLY SUSPENDED

A free market should fluctuate. I wouldn't have it any other way, "fair" or not. But I don't agree with your conclusions as far as the particulars go. Understand that for a lot of us, this isn't an abnormal low... It's returning to an area that we have already experienced. Many of us remember when land was going for ~2/sm. We don't nessesarily all see ~4/sm as the "natural" state of land economics. I think the fluctuation is larger and slower than you suggest.

You talk about fairness in land holdings, but your suggested methodolgy is anything but fair... Why should someone comming in tommorow be denied an oprtunity to buy land directly, like his buddy was able to do, just to artificialy stabalize a market? No, your solution is only fair to the brokers and investors, ultimatly, not to the average citizen.

A deflationary cycle is highly destructive in any free market, which is what we're going through right now.

It causes panic sales and pushes people the sidelines in terms of purchases to wait for it to settle down .. which just causes a downward deflationary spiral, not to mention nobody does anything for fear of losing their investment, and we are left with a stale, dying world that just depresses people.

Hmmmm - thats interesting, Blaze. I'll need to think about that. The true renter as the causative factor, rather than the pseudo-seller.

I would have thought the pseudo-seller could undercut and out-expand the true-renter by miles any day, since he/she recovers the purchase price very quickly, and can move on almost immediately to buy her/his next sim.

Surely higher "rent" and slower expansion should reduce such an operator to insignificance unless the pseudo-sellers have a cartel and are taking a ridiculous profit? (Which I am not suggesting for a moment).

But thank you for your thoughtful post. A discussion of causative factors was more what I was hoping for than so much "it doesn't matter". Whether it matters or not, understanding its causes is still important IMHO.

But I take it, Blaze, that you still feel unlimited, uncontrolled availability of big slices of private island land has unbalanced the supply side one way or the other, and contributed to dropping mainland prices ? That their supply should be controlled, as we previously discussed ?

Would those of you who seem to think the actual price unimportant nevertheless care to comment on what recent factors you think have caused the drop ? Surely that is of interest, if only to see more clearly what might happen next ?

Let's introduce rent control because it has always been so successful. As the Wikipedia notes:If someone wants to claim that this isn't rental (which I don't know how you really could) please note that I was using the term "rent" as in the economist's jargon.

Jonquille, we have varying financial resources, varying motives or indeed needs for playing.

Has it never occurred to you that this may be a resource for severely disabled or bedridden or otherwise housebound people who may have made serious financial sacrifice to be here and for whom a bit more land than 512m may be pschologically a life saver? That recovering a few hundred dollars when they can no longer play may be very significant in such circumstances ?

I think you have entirely misunderstood my position. I am not really complaining that the land price is falling. I am complaining that it is changing rapidly and significantly, when the Lindens promised to keep it stable, and could easily keep it stable if they wished.

I would be posting the same way if after such a promise it then nearly doubled.

I want it STABLE.

You seem to want it LOWER, and are applauding the fact that the apparently random and out-of-control movements have brought it lower where you want it.

If you pooh-pooh my request for stability and control, will you start complaining when that same lack of control takes it back up to L$9/m ? Will you still be applauding then, Jonquille?

My guess is you agree with me, you just want it stabilised at a lower level. I'm willing to discuss what the best level to stabilise at might be, but this thread is asking for some STABILISING ACTION.

If LL announce they have changed their mind, and are taking action to stabilise it at a lower price, thats ok and I would accept it, though many people might think this unwise and want to know why.

So that is the real question I am asking, J. Do we need LL acting to hold prices stable, or do you really want them doing nothing and letting land and exchange rate swing all over the place?

You can't REALLY think that good, can you ?

Any of you ?

Well, one segment of the population is interested in restructuring the economy around content rather than land.

The theory is content barons are more productive and interesting than land barons. The buying and selling of land is an activity lacking in significant technical merit and so should not be something which is draining L$ out of the economy (which is what land barons are doing).

One way to do this is to destabalize the land economy so much that land barons exit and LL finds different ways of making money.

Unfortunately, while I have some sympathy with this theory (being entirely based on content myself), instability is a very destructive force and the froth it creates can wreak significant damage due to the dissapointment and anger it incites.

I also don't think LL has anyway of making money on an economy which isn't land based, so there is that rather sticky problem as well.

But isn't it also a part of the natural economic cycle.
It seems to me that right now it also provides new oppertunities. We shouldn't be selling but buying.

Besides some idle speculation from Philip, there is NO plan to change the tier structure. There is, however, a plan that will start in just two days that should, in fact, stabilize land prices. I fully expect that this dip in prices will correct over the next few months and that from there on out, you can expect land to fluctuate not more than 50% in either direction.

This is because from now on, both island sims and mainland sims will be delivered on demand! The market will dictate the speed at which new sims are released.

If I'm wrong, it bodes ill not only for land prices but for SL as a whole, because the only reason land prices would continue to drop is if SL itself stops growing and people as a whole stop buying land for their projects.

All I'm suggesting is that the the Lindens should reactivate their stated policy of stabilising the economy by controlling the supply of land. unless they care to re-stabilize at a new lower level, things have sunk so low that we would need a temporary cessation of release (two weeks ?) to get back up to the previous level. But it would have to include exercising control over the rate at which private islands are supplied. Unless I have it wrong, these are still freely available. We are not told how many are being sold. In my opinion these are the root cause of the present drop.

WHY are some sims rationed, others not ?
WHY are some fixed price ($981, soon to be $1200), whilst others must be competed for in a fluctuating open market ?
WHY ?

The unrationed ones give the supply side the ability to run wild, and I suspect that is what has happened.

With regard to your last point, I agree. The new rules excluding all but the full-sim buyer from the low-priced auction process are a disgrace. I don't know why we aren't all howling blue murder. Have I missed the chorus ?

What if people continue to migrate to the superior price/zoning of Island land? That can continue to contribute to the falling land prices, even with the new structure in place.

Hold on, Ananda. If you are right I have misunderstood this change. That would be entirely different. I'd better make it my priority to check it out.
You don't have a link do you, forum keyword search is not working for me?
Are they both to be fixed price ? The same price ?

If this is true then ultimately land prices will be determined by the rate at which land barons care to invest. There are so few big ones that their whims will cause substantial proce fluctuations.

So my cry for the Lindens to take stbilising action, as they undertook to do, is totally dead ? No more stabilising action via land supply ever ? A completely uncontrolled economy ? No alternate control proposals ?

Are you SURE, Ananda? Seems completely crazy to me - a recipe for disaster. Boom bust boom bust.

I gotta go check.

Well, market demand is a fine way to stabalize the economy.

Unfortunately because of the tier discount there is this huge gap between what people can be charged in the future and what they're currently paying (basically, 0 versus 4$/m2!)

That gap is created by the tier discount, and it is that gap which Philip freaked everyone out by saying he was going to close.

The problem, of course, is that the economy is based on that gap in many ways.

Sorry, Ananda, as I read it you are absolutely incorrect.
/3/e4/51842/1.html

As before, only Private islands are available on demand and at fixed price.
Mainland sims are to be auctioned and therefore rationed.

Exactly as I thought.

Total lack of even-handedness suggests they want to kill the mainland sim.

Apparently they deliberately continue to voluntarily undermine their only declared method of stabilising the economy, so they no longer value stability.

The new exclusion of the smaller buyer from land auctions is apalling in my opinion. Why no outcry ? Thats how I got nearly all my land. I have seen no code of practice issued for the now-ratified private land-wholesalers. Can they for instance refuse to sell to those they dislike? Indulge in private vendettas ? Can they run auctions themselves or must we always pay the price they choose? Bye bye bargains for the astute or patient.

I really don't like the way this is going.

So I should be happy to pay more for land to use, so that others can get a better profit when they resell? No, thanks. You're making the very large assumption that I'm just floating in cash to hand out for land, which is far from the case. Either that, or you're trying to make me feel guilty for expecting to pay a fair price for land that I wish to use to make my own SL money. Not going to work. Nice hyperbole, though. Well done there. Has it occurred to you that those same people would also have to pay the higher price to buy land? Isn't it extremely insensative of you to wish those higher prices on those poor, poor disabled masses? For shame!



I don't want LL doing anything to try and stableize the price at all. I want us, the residents and consumers and creators, to decide what we will pay and what we won't pay. I want a consumer driven open market. I've paid the higher prices for land I thought worth it, as I said. I'll pay the lower prices too. And I don't want those prices controlled by LL, but rather, what we as purchasers decide we are willing to pay.

This is our world.. Stop asking mommy and daddy to do things for us.

I couldn't agree more. Let the speculators eat cake!

And what makes you so sure that this isn't their goal?



Why does a cheap economy car cost less than a sportscar, and why can I go to the store and pick one up at any time while I might have to get on a waiting list for certaint types of exotic vehicles?

Because they aren't the same thing.

Both are sims. There the similarity ends.



Yeah. It wasn't as loud as I expected, but it was there.

I'm not J., but just speaking for me...

Yes, yes I do think that's a good thing. (see proviso)

(proviso ) Mind you, I still prefer to think of land as simply server space. It shouldn't be a commodity, to my mind... Whats important is what's on the server, not the server itself. To blaze and others, that makes me a content baron. Whatever, I guess. But if we *must* suffer under a "land is a commodity" delusion and LL insists on playing along, then yes, I went the market absolutely unrestricted, unregulated, and uncontrolled.

Maybe your first sentence is sarcasm, Blaze, but your point on tier discount is very valid.

A land-leasing private-sim owner pays US195 per month.
Even if the sales of the leases exactly pay the sim purchase price and no more, the pseudo-tier brings in good money. If divided into 2048m plots (32 of them) charging rent at Linden tier rates brings in 32x$15 = $480 per month. Giving a gross margin of US$285 per month.

So the leaser can provide the inhabitants with say 1 hour of attention per day per sim at US$6 per hour and still clear US$105 per month. Some in-world player employees will work for one third of that. A settled sim may need little attention from its owner.

All this ignores further undeclared discounts that LL almost certainly gives to the multiple-sim-holder.

This is what makes the whole thing viable. Combined with the brilliantly innovative step of persuading the "renter" to reimburse your entire land purchase price, and obligating him to find a substitute to take his place if he leaves. Despite his complete lack of any real ownership rights or enforceable contract, and his need for absolute obedience to his landlord, who can run off with the cash at any moment, with no violation even of the TOS. It shows us just how lawless and anarchic and ugly many people must think mainland SL is, that they find this so attractive. Personally the mainland offends me less, and attracts me more, each month.

One could argue that the tier discount is excessive, to allow such a thing to flourish on its back, but so many people like it, I guess it must be good. What other criterion do we have? Mind you, when the first "landlord" does the dirty, if LL refuse to clear up the mess, opinions may change !

It would be fascinating to discover what sort of extra monthly premium people would be willing to pay for these services - or if they only want it because it comes "free".

Never mind - sorry - I digress.

So yes, Blaze. On that tier discount the new regime is being forged.

Their losses must be staggering. Ha ha!

~Ulrika~

Funny, go look at the auctions now. There's a few 512's, and even a 384. I'm not so sure the whole-sim-only thing is on. They seem to be going the opposite way!

Buster

Well, I must say I'm really quite surprised with the enthusiasm here for an uncontrolled fluctuating economy. I think the idea that this means it is in "our hands" is a bit wrong. I think it will be in the hands of a few big land-barons. Soon maybe in the hands of just one.

Not my idea of more power to the individual. Still, I can recognise when I am heavily outnumbered by other thinking people, so its probably time for me to accept defeat on my "call to action" and "demand for stability" and drop it here. Seems more appropriate for a game than a "world" but maybe thats where we differ.

But I am still interested on what people think the causative factors are at present and would really like a few more opinions to mull over.

When the lindens see the land becoming "too expensive" (a subjective term), they release more land faster. Barring the 1.2 debacle, or a major shortage of server availability, you're not going to see $L10/meter anytime soon, except on insanely desirable land (like the double-prim city sims).

It's seriously a non issue. And, in the long run, cheaper land is better for everyone except those short-sighted folks who base their entire enjoyment and revenue from land speculation. Hell, even Anshe has diversified.

LF

I'd say that is only 1/2 accurate since Robin said in the announcement -

That sounds like there will always be land available for auction regardless of demand. Which doesn't fit into my definition of rationing.

Not that I care as like others, I've bought my land for my own use. I thought I would point that out though.

essence,

the initial cost of land will be minimum 1000 USD per sim, creating a baseline for land at around 5L$/m2. these numbers have been discusse by tiger and schwan in threads discussing the change in land distribution.

controlling the supply will be up to the community. land traders will only buy as much as would make them profitable, large scale project developers could bypass the land traders and buy gridded land directly from LL.

what i see happening is that as long as the price of land in world is around 8L$ or up, new sims can be activated sustainably. when new sim prices drop below this point, it would mean there is too much old land on the market to sustain the activation of new land (for profit).

of course all the models i construct attempt to be rational. but the real world is never rational

If you watch this thread very very closely knowing what is known about the admitted behavior of some posters in it, it is truly fascinating - almost an art form what has been done in this thread. Bravo.