Welcome to the Second Life Forums Archive

These forums are CLOSED. Please visit the new forums HERE

A call for ALL new land release to be URGENTLY SUSPENDED

Ellie Edo
Registered User
Join date: 13 Mar 2005
Posts: 1,425
07-13-2005 16:38
Here is the graph of land prices. The next point in the graph is now three days old and I await it with trepidation.

The value of the L$ is sinking, with huge unmet "sell" offers over hanging the market.

I personally have lost confidence in the value of my land, and am contemplating unloading my mere quarter sim at a huge loss, and getting my money out if I can. Half my fun was putting up a few 100 US$, and planning my puny land strategy with it. I reckon I have now lost $US150-200. Not much, I guess, and I knew it was a game, but I don't think I'll play that bit of the game any more.

Obviously many others are feeling the same. Which puts us in the sort of positive feedback situation which can lead to a bigger crash.

In a way it doesn't matter, but I fear that if we get widespread disillusionment on one aspect, we may start losing people from the game altogether. Which would matter.

The Lindens pledged to control the economy by controlling the rate at which they released land. I believe this whole problem began when one land baron found an unexpected way of "selling" land not meant to be sold - land which was available on request, outside the "release controls" the Lindens were operating.

Despite warnings of what might happen, the Lindens took no step to plug this leak past their sluice-gate. Even the land baron herself recently posted that her own actions had very significantly devalued her own mainland holdings, along with yours and mine.

Looking at the land release rate in auction, I see the Lindens have cut it well back recently (note shortage of first land too), but it looks like nowhere near enough. At what rate are private islands being sold ? I think we need to be given this figure weekly along with the other land stats, now they are competing and dragging prices down. Then we can all see if this really is the cause. And note you cannot join in and become a leasing landlord yourself without $US1200 up front. Its a big boy's (or girl's) game. Probably a foolhardy one the way things are going.

For these reasons I call on the management to suspend the release of all further land(except first land), particularly the probably culpable "on-demand" yet "plot leasing" private islands, until they get land and exchange rates back towards their previous stable levels.

Unless they can achieve this, I'm going to join the panic and get out of land too, so I also will unwillingly help to make things worse.

I could post chapter and verse on the history of how this all came about, but an immediate remedy is the current priority.

I welcome anyone who can refute with rational argument (not emotion) my hypothesis about how this was caused, or propose a less drastic solution.

I think few of us, looking at the numbers, would deny that it looks like we have a developing problem. The next land price figure will be a significant one. My guess is "on down". I hope I'm wrong.

What we need is for the Lindens to announce some sort of action, demonstrate they are back in charge, and thus restore some of this waning confidence and stem the fall. Otherwise I think we are in big trouble.
Malachi Petunia
Gentle Miscreant
Join date: 21 Sep 2003
Posts: 3,414
07-13-2005 16:45
Bummer for you; perhaps that's what Linden Lab wants to happen though - but we'll never know. The value of land in RL and in SL is subject to all sorts of externalities, but you knew that.
Adam Zaius
Deus
Join date: 9 Jan 2004
Posts: 1,483
07-13-2005 16:48
You need more data in that. If you look at a longer term picture, you will find that it looks more like a U curve that rebounds back and from L$3/sqm with a bit of regularity. :)
_____________________
Co-Founder / Lead Developer
GigasSecondServer
Jonquille Noir
Lemon Fresh
Join date: 17 Jan 2004
Posts: 4,025
07-13-2005 16:48
As someone who buys land to actually use it, and not to resell for profit, I welcome the lower land prices.
_____________________
Little Rebel Designs
Gallinas
Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
07-13-2005 16:49
Could not agree more.

Lindens, please keep an eye on the economy. Its is creating havok (no pun intended) for those of us in the business community.

Thank you!
Khamon Fate
fategardens.net
Join date: 21 Nov 2003
Posts: 4,177
07-13-2005 16:52
From: Jonquille Noir
As someone who buys land to actually use it, and not to resell for profit, I welcome the lower land prices.

/clap
_____________________
Visit the Fate Gardens Website @ fategardens.net
Ulrika Zugzwang
Magnanimous in Victory
Join date: 10 Jun 2004
Posts: 6,382
07-13-2005 16:55
From: Jonquille Noir
As someone who buys land to actually use it, and not to resell for profit, I welcome the lower land prices.
I agree! Let it drop. :)

~Ulrika~
_____________________
Chik-chik-chika-ahh
Lordfly Digeridoo
Prim Orchestrator
Join date: 21 Jul 2003
Posts: 3,628
07-13-2005 17:01
Looks fine to me.

I extremely agree with Jonquille... I buy land to use it, not to sell, or for an investment.

Sorry to hear that you see SL as an investment opportunity to diversify your portfolio rather than a tool used for entertainment, socialization, and relaxation.

LF
_____________________
----
http://www.lordfly.com/
http://www.twitter.com/lordfly
http://www.plurk.com/lordfly
Ellie Edo
Registered User
Join date: 13 Mar 2005
Posts: 1,425
07-13-2005 17:08
From: Jonquille Noir
As someone who buys land to actually use it, and not to resell for profit, I welcome the lower land prices.

I have never DEALT in land, Jonquille. Half my holding is a residence. Half is for business. I spread myself a bit, on the basis that it was not money lost, because I could always resell for about the same if the economy was stable. I now see it was indeed money lost, and unless LL act quickly I shall terminate any "spread myself" activity, and reduce land holdings to the bare minimum. A small home over the shop, and a careful assessment of just how many prims I really need. Way, way less than I have. Probably 1024 would be enough. I could rent (not lease) that - let someone else take the risk.

If significant numbers of others think the same way, confidence is lost, and we have a crash. It'll be less fun that way, though, and many of us might leave.

The Lindens said they were controlling the economy for stability, they said how, I believed them. They haven't done it. They remain silent as it sinks. Are they in control, or have they given up? Without control we will just have crazy cycles, shedding players at every turnaround. Or shedding the small-investing players at least.

They SAID they were controlling for land price and exchange rate stability. Now is the time to prove it, and DO it. I'll search out their posts making this pledge when I have time.
DoteDote Edison
Thinks Too Much
Join date: 6 Jun 2004
Posts: 790
07-13-2005 17:10
From: Jonquille Noir
As someone who buys land to actually use it, and not to resell for profit, I welcome the lower land prices.
Gotta add my 'ditto' to this - so ""
Cristiano Midnight
Evil Snapshot Baron
Join date: 17 May 2003
Posts: 8,616
07-13-2005 17:17
From: Jonquille Noir
As someone who buys land to actually use it, and not to resell for profit, I welcome the lower land prices.


Still yet another ditto for this post :)

PS - Ellie, I don't discount your concerns - but the land market has always been volatile - it has gone up and down. There is also such a thing as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Hysteria breeds hysteria - and people are already freaking out over someone dumping a bunch of money into GOM (probably the same person freaking out the loudest just to manipulate the market and make a profit when it spikes again). Threads like this add to the panic you are hoping won't happen so the prices don't drop even more.

I have 102,000m of land that I have paid a wide range of prices for - I could never being to hope to recoup all that I've invested - so I just enjoy myself and don't worry about land prices unless I have to buy - then I welcome low land prices.
_____________________
Cristiano


ANOmations - huge selection of high quality, low priced animations all $100L or less.

~SLUniverse.com~ SL's oldest and largest community site, featuring Snapzilla image sharing, forums, and much more.

Jonquille Noir
Lemon Fresh
Join date: 17 Jan 2004
Posts: 4,025
07-13-2005 17:18
There's very little chance I will ever make back what I've spent on my Gallinas land. I paid quite a lot per sm for it, in 512 to 1024 chunks at a time, as it became available. (With many thanks to great neighbors who offer it to sim residents before selling to the highest bidder!) I did that because I really wanted it. I did it to at least have some control over my view, my environment, my lag, and my chosen sim. If I ever decide to move on and sell, I will pretty much bend over and take it without lube. I accept this.

I'm not normally a very caring person, but I would rather accept this loss, than to have LL halt all land release so that mine will be more valuable when and if I decide to sell. The reason I would rather take this sacrifice, is because for this sacrifice, 500 people who also want land to use, rather than to sell, will be able to afford it without being bent over. That will keep 500 people who want to build content and community in the game. (500 people who want to use land as a supplemental income may tier down, but I'm okay with that. They rarely have anything interesting to offer me anyway.)
_____________________
Little Rebel Designs
Gallinas
Ananda Sandgrain
+0-
Join date: 16 May 2003
Posts: 1,951
07-13-2005 17:21
Ellie,

If you haven't already, check this announcement:

/3/e4/51842/1.html

Linden auctioning of parcels smaller than a sim ends soon anyway, so you'll get your wish. It wouldn't surprise me if this dip in prices is actually a result of the change, since it will be much harder to be a small-time land speculator.
_____________________
Siggy Romulus
DILLIGAF
Join date: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 5,711
07-13-2005 17:22
In a nutshell:


Shit happens!
_____________________
The Second Life forums are living proof as to why it's illegal for people to have sex with farm animals.

From: Jesse Linden
I, for one, am highly un-helped by this thread
Eboni Khan
Misanthrope
Join date: 17 Mar 2004
Posts: 2,133
07-13-2005 17:26
Just last week we were all supposed to hold hands sing "We are the World",shun all profiteering and moneymaking in SL, so that the poor, the virtually starving and homeless artistic masses could have a loving and safe hippie utopia of creative space without profit and the evils of reality, err capitalism. Today it's” FUCK everyone else!!! I need to protect my investment”. Wow, this community rocks.


Let me call Bono so we can get a benefit together in SL real quick, we can rally against the evil SL World Bank/ LL and bring about some real change! The revolution will come televised across broadband!

*hums*

We are the world, we are the children, we are the ones that make a brighter day...


EVERYONE! SING!
_____________________
blaze Spinnaker
1/2 Serious
Join date: 12 Aug 2004
Posts: 5,898
07-13-2005 17:36
Yeah, Ellie, you know we talked about exactly this problem about 2 months ago. Kinda amusing how it has exactly all come to pass so precisely the way we laid it out.

My thoughts are that LL knew this might come down but wanted to let it play out a little to see where it might lead.

Well, it has lead to cool zoning and a land based economy which is imploding.

I think the solution we proposed of creating a second type of sim that you could rent out that was auctioned was probably the best. Unfortunately, for whatever reasons, LL wants to go down a different route which is remove the large tier discount.

That'll be more rough, though I suspect they'll grandfather it so people currently in the biz won't get hit that hard.
_____________________
Taken from The last paragraph on pg. 16 of Cory Ondrejka's paper "Changing Realities: User Creation, Communication, and Innovation in Digital Worlds :

"User-created content takes the idea of leveraging player opinions a step further by allowing them to effectively prototype new ideas and features. Developers can then measure which new concepts most improve the products and incorporate them into the game in future patches."
Surreal Farber
Cat Herder
Join date: 5 Feb 2004
Posts: 2,059
07-13-2005 17:38
Ferran and I own a private sim and some mainland land too.

I guess my thought is, like the stock market (1) don't risk what you can't afford to lose and (2) stay in for the long term, this too will pass.

Spikes and dips in land prices have come and gone in the past two years. This could be the start of a trend, but more likely to be just another dip before the next climb. If you are using your land and enjoying it, don't forget to factor that in before making a decision you may regret later.
_____________________
Surreal

Phobos 3d Design - putting the hot in psychotic since 2004

Come see our whole line of clothing, animations and accessories in Chaos (37, 198, 43)
blaze Spinnaker
1/2 Serious
Join date: 12 Aug 2004
Posts: 5,898
07-13-2005 17:42
No, Surreal, there is a structural problem in the economy, one that Hiro Queso in fact is probably the main culprit.

Don't get me wrong - I like what he's done. However, he has devalued land by renting it out (no purchase price).

This has in effect created a chain reaction in the rest of the land market by convincing most land barons not to participate in the buy side which has dropped demand for land.

There were numerous solutions, the free account giveaway was among them. Unfortunately, it's only half of the solution.
_____________________
Taken from The last paragraph on pg. 16 of Cory Ondrejka's paper "Changing Realities: User Creation, Communication, and Innovation in Digital Worlds :

"User-created content takes the idea of leveraging player opinions a step further by allowing them to effectively prototype new ideas and features. Developers can then measure which new concepts most improve the products and incorporate them into the game in future patches."
Cristiano Midnight
Evil Snapshot Baron
Join date: 17 May 2003
Posts: 8,616
07-13-2005 17:47
From: Eboni Khan
Just last week we were all supposed to hold hands sing "We are the World",shun all profiteering and moneymaking in SL, so that the poor, the virtually starving and homeless artistic masses could have a loving and safe hippie utopia of creative space without profit and the evils of reality, err capitalism. Today it's” FUCK everyone else!!! I need to protect my investment”. Wow, this community rocks.


Let me call Bono so we can get a benefit together in SL real quick, we can rally against the evil SL World Bank/ LL and bring about some real change! The revolution will come televised across broadband!

*hums*

We are the world, we are the children, we are the ones that make a brighter day...


EVERYONE! SING!


This actually made me laugh out loud - thank you :)
_____________________
Cristiano


ANOmations - huge selection of high quality, low priced animations all $100L or less.

~SLUniverse.com~ SL's oldest and largest community site, featuring Snapzilla image sharing, forums, and much more.

Seth Kanahoe
political fugue artist
Join date: 30 Jan 2005
Posts: 1,220
07-13-2005 17:57
From: blaze Spinnaker
No, Surreal, there is a structural problem in the economy, one that Hiro Queso in fact is probably the main culprit.


I believe that "structural problem" is called virtual (read: "play";) free market capitalism.

;)
Ellie Edo
Registered User
Join date: 13 Mar 2005
Posts: 1,425
07-13-2005 18:13
I have much respect for some of you who are posting these "its good" or "who cares" or "shit happens" views, but I must say you puzzle me.

The alternative to a controlled stable land price (at whatever level) is an uncontrolled one, probably cycling randomly between two extreme values, maybe every 4 or 5 months at a guess. Maybe between 3L$/m and 9L$/m, for arguments sake.

Many of you seem to think that this doesn't matter - except to horrid "dealers" - because resale value isn't important.

Here's another reason I think it does matter. Is it fair that two new players, arriving here four months apart, should have entirely different land-purchase costs when each comes to the natural point to spread themselves a little? Probably by a factor of three? The lucky get gets three times the land for his money. They then sit there for the next three years (never dealing) but one has an estate three times bigger than the other ?

Surely SL should strive to offer a consistent experience, and equal opportunity, to all entrants, regardless of when they arrive.
Siggy Romulus
DILLIGAF
Join date: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 5,711
07-13-2005 18:17
From: Eboni Khan
Just last week we were all supposed to hold hands sing "We are the World",shun all profiteering and moneymaking in SL, so that the poor, the virtually starving and homeless artistic masses could have a loving and safe hippie utopia of creative space without profit and the evils of reality, err capitalism. Today it's” FUCK everyone else!!! I need to protect my investment”. Wow, this community rocks.


Indeed... SecondLife is a cruel and fickle mistress!

In order to bolster spirits and make everyone feel good again, I humble submit this reflection:


When things go wrong, as quite oft they will...
When your daily road seems all uphill...
GOM is low, but your tier is high...
When you try to laugh, but can only cry...
When you're so sick of it all that you just wanna quit..

Don't cry to me,
I don't give a shit.
_____________________
The Second Life forums are living proof as to why it's illegal for people to have sex with farm animals.

From: Jesse Linden
I, for one, am highly un-helped by this thread
Ellie Edo
Registered User
Join date: 13 Mar 2005
Posts: 1,425
07-13-2005 18:22
And I think this "resale value is irrelevant" theory may be quite inappropiate in some households.

Its only a game, but to get a really nice little land holding and have fun you need about US$400 invested. At least, thats what you think you need after a bit.

But you may have to justify this "game"expenditure to your partner, as a first cost in addition to the tier. If you can tell her or him with honesty that this money is recoverable on resale with a pretty high probability, she or he is much more likely to agree, just as you are more likely yourself to think it not too stupid.

Just because you limit your investment to what you are able to lose without actual distress doesn't mean you are eager to see it go unless its inevitable. It isn't.
Jonquille Noir
Lemon Fresh
Join date: 17 Jan 2004
Posts: 4,025
07-13-2005 18:26
From: Ellie Edo
And I think this "resale value is irrelevant" theory may be quite inappropiate in some households.

Its only a game, but to get a really nice little land holding and have fun you need about US$400 invested. At least, thats what you think you need after a bit.

But you may have to justify this "game"expenditure to your partner, as a first cost in addition to the tier. If you can tell her or him with honesty that this money is recoverable on resale with a pretty high probability, she or he is much more likely to agree, just as you are more likely yourself to think it not too stupid.

Just because you limit your investment to what you are able to lose without actual distress doesn't mean you are eager to see it go unless its inevitable. It isn't.


Do you think that people should have to pay more for land because someone else has to justify the expense to their partner?

I don't.

If you can't afford to spend it, don't.
_____________________
Little Rebel Designs
Gallinas
Lordfly Digeridoo
Prim Orchestrator
Join date: 21 Jul 2003
Posts: 3,628
07-13-2005 18:28
From: Ellie Edo
And I think this "resale value is irrelevant" theory may be quite inappropiate in some households.

Its only a game, but to get a really nice little land holding and have fun you need about US$400 invested. At least, thats what you think you need after a bit.


That's nonsense. I pay 15 bucks a month, and have quite a happy time.


[/QUOTE]
Just because you limit your investment to what you are able to lose without actual distress doesn't mean you are eager to see it go unless its inevitable. It isn't.[/QUOTE]

Sure it is. In the end, we all die. We all lose. Put in that perspective, worrying about the future price of virtual land in a small MMORPG's economic cycle is... well, silly. :)

LF
_____________________
----
http://www.lordfly.com/
http://www.twitter.com/lordfly
http://www.plurk.com/lordfly
1 2 3 4 5 6 7