Sorry, I should have been a bit more precise in my previous post. There are two current meanings of "inflation": one is directed to the consumer prices rising; the other is related to having an excess of money supply compared to the size of an economy. I was referring to the latter definition of inflation, which may or not be outdated in some circles (at least, that's what the Wikipedia says, my usual reference when I'm in doubt of things I was taught a decade ago

). Economics, like any other science, evolves and has "trends".

I agree that not all consumer prices rise when you increase the money supply. In RL, for instance, prices of kitchen appliances or computer hardware slowly decline over the years, no matter what the current, measured inflation is. This is simply the result of better technology that allows manufacturers to produce certain items cheaper, independently of labour and parts cost. Overall, when measuring the Consumer Price Index (CPI), you may have inflation as a net sum of all contributions in the CPI, but some items may always be cheaper every time you measure it. The problem with measuring inflation based on CPIs is picking the "right" set of consumer goods, and, of course, if you change that set, the value of inflation may be different.
In SL, to the best of my knowledge, nobody is measuring any sort of CPI. So it's hard to have a precise value of "inflation" connected to the rising prices of consumer goods in SL. The best you can measure is the amount of money in circulation, and the number of transactions done on average by individual residents. That was the type of "inflation" I was referring to. Psychologically, and simply put, if there is no competition, since people have more money available, merchants will be able to offer the same goods and products for a higher price. The problem is measuring if, overall, prices are rising or not.
From: Milkbone Albion
Cost of goods is all labor (except for upload fees), there are generally no cost of materials (unless you buy animations or textures). Labor, if I do it myself, is really worth WAY more in US than I'll ever get out of SL. Therefore making things in SL generally has to be a labor of love. Cause it's very unlikely to make a RL living from SL play.
As everything else in SL, it certainly depends a lot on what kinds of goods and services you provide, and how much you're able to sell. A simple example: talented builders are able to build a whole sim in a month, and market price for that service is around 150-250,000 L$, or, if you wish, around US$ 1,000. In some countries, that would be a pretty good monthly salary (that's slightly below the average salary for EU countries, for instance). You may argue that a talented designer is able to earn much more than that in RL (say, doing web pages) and I certainly agree.
It's not just builders that can make a living from SL. It's more a question of time invested, and expected return. A skin maker may "invest", say, 12 hours of work designing a new skin (instead of doing, say, a logo for a RL customer, or a web site). Let's assume that they charge, in RL, US$50/hour for professional graphical design, so that skin would be an "investment" of US$ 600, or about L$ 150,000 or so. If this designer sells that very same skin for L$ 500, and is able to sell over 300 copies of it, they have made a profit from their work — measured in RL terms, not in SL terms.
The question that arises is, of course: "ah, but most designers are not able to sell so many copies". Think again. Most
good designers, with proper marketing, are well able to sell much more than 300 copies of their fantastic designs. So, for them, it's very likely that they can "make a living" simply from SL work.
I'm not even mentioning real estate agents, who definitely make enough in SL to be able to enjoy a very comfortable lifestyle in RL just by, uh, "playing SL" as you say.
Again, you may argue that not everybody is able to do the same. I certainly agree. In RL, it takes 1,000 artists to have 1
good artist (the same applies, for instance, to athletes). Although SL tends to attract a larger proportion of good artists than the usual ratio, still, this would mean that just a few dozen artists would be able to make a living from their work, and it's not unsurprising that you have precisely that happening in SL. Also, talent alone is not enough — you also need excellent marketing techniques. Take Pixel Dolls, NOMINE, or the Midnights (Chip, Mistress, Torrid...) as a few examples of very talented designers' brands that are well able to sell SL clothes enough to give them a comfortable RL lifestyle. Fortunately, they are not isolated exceptions

Concentrating on a market niche, developing an item that is well marketable, defining the highest price that residents are willing to pay for that item, and designing a marketing strategy to do repeated sales on that item so that you get a return of your invested time is not for everybody — thus your statement: "it's highly unlikely to make a RL living from SL" is, actually, very true. No, it's not for everybody. But that's the same as in RL.
From: Milkbone Albion
On the stipends: A certain amount of $L needs to be "created" and put into the system to account for the growing community. To really analyze things, you have to consider the Gross National Product (total amount of $L in the system) and also consider the total SL population. There has to be money in circulation and in the hands of consumers. I think that LL is watching this and does what they can to keep the $L at a reasonable value.
You're precisely right. That's what LL is doing and has been doing since the L$ was first established as the currency in SL. The equilibrium is exactly on those issues.
From: Milkbone Albion
If there had never been any stipends, there would never be any L in circulation. So at least in the beginnings of SL, there needed to be money 'created' so that there would be money. Now that we're in to it, it's all based on population. The more active users, the more L in circulation you need in order to have a healthy economy.
Definitely correct. Stipends, or the "beginning money" you get when joining SL, is what "jumpstarts" the economy. The more people in the economy (and assuming that they are active participants in it), the more L$ LL can "mint". The current levels of stipends reflect the "equilibrium".
From: Milkbone Albion
So stipends actually stimulates the economy, and gives the masses money to buy things. It's easy to say that no stipends would increase the value of L but that's not necessarily true.
There is a law on diminishing returns either way: slightly increasing the stipends may make people spend a bit more, thus being able to afford products that they wouldn't afford previously, still without making prices rise; contrariwise, slightly lowering the stipends may force merchants to offer their wares for slightly lower prices, so that people can afford them, and keep merchants in business. Fine-tuning the equilibrium is precisely what LL is doing. "No stipends" would definitely increase the value of the L$ dramatically, but it would also mean that a large part of the resident population would not be able to afford to buy anything, so, several merchants would simply drop out of business unless a new model of earning money would be implemented. I don't disagree with you on that. However, I also think that reducing the stipends (ie. "welfare"

encourages most of the people to become active agents of the economy instead (thus, circulating existing L$ more). For instance, people would start to accept jobs — even low-paying ones — to make up for their loss of "welfare income". Any well-established merchant would certainly be able to offer jobs for L$50 a week, and basic account holders would certainly agree to do them in return of that money, since it meant covering up the loss of income nicely.
The problem, of course, is determining how many jobs could be created to accomodate a "no-stipend" economy. It's just a feeling, but I hardly expect our economy to be able to offer 60,000 jobs from one week to another! As a side example coming from my personal experience, I'm
offering jobs and expected more people to apply for them, less than a dozen applied so far. I always wondered if it's the result of having stipends — after all, "having a job" wastes your precious "enjoyment time" (no matter how appealing your job can be) and discourages people from taking those jobs, since it's easier just to hang around and get money dropped from the sky

From: Milkbone Albion
Has inflation actually happened? Are products more expensive than they used to be? I don't know because I generally don't buy anything but land. I'm still wearing my default skin (because I can't find one that looks hetero and geeky like my RL self).
The answer, of course, is "nobody knows", since you don't have a CPI

The only thing that has risen in price are rentals, but the only reason for that is simply the L$ having dropped so much (since the renters have to pay for tier in US$, they have no choice but to rise their prices in L$). Now that the L$ is rising again at the LindeX, I expect prices to drop again. In any case, this phenomenum is strictly tied to the L$/US$ ratio, and not to the amount of L$ in circulation.
On the other hand, if you use the older definition of inflation, then there is certainly more money in circulation, when compared to the number of transactions. This means that money should be circulating more (more transactions) due to the increase in both people and L$. But it is not (it has grown, sure, but not at the same pace). According to the older definition of inflation, there is no question that you can measure it pretty well.
Does this affect prices? Very hard to say, without a CPI. You can only trust your gut feeling. Since you have more and more competition these days, naturally prices tend to drop, and this mostly offsets price rising effects. Also, top-level designers have a much larger customer base than, say, one year ago, so they can keep their prices down and have increased sales as well. The net result is that it
looks like the prices are
not rising overall.
From: Milkbone Albion
You also shouldn't be so alarmist and worry about a pair of shorts costing 5000L. That wouldn't happen over night, and I don't think that's gonna happen at all. When you can get shorts for free if you look around, and you can make your own pair for $10L and a little bit of photoshop talent. Those two factors will self control the market.
I'm not an alarmist

Extreme examples are just that — examples.
From: Milkbone Albion
When you said:
From: Gwyneth Llewelyn
Also notice that it's a very, very small number of people that would leave SL in case the stipends disappeared (or were reduced).
What are you basing that on? I don't think that the general concensus of the SL community is represented in the forums. I think a lot of people read but don't post. How many of the 60,000 users have you surveyed?
Of course I'm counting the number of people that have voiced their opinion in a few threads, representing about 1% of the SL population, as well as some polls to the effect that have been posted. We're talking about perhaps a few dozens that answered in a universe of a few hundreds that posted. Feel free to calculate the statistical significance of those claims and the margin of error — I haven't done so, but it should be easy to do if you're a statistics expert (I'm definitely not, and I've forgotten almost everything I learned on that area, lol). But I'm wildly guessing that we're talking about 5% of people that would leave with a 95% degree of confidence, assuming that the resident population of SL is statistically well-represented in the forums (most would disagree with that claim).
From: Milkbone Albion
I don't believe that my $500L/wk stipend that I prepaid a year for is welfare because I paid US$ to get that. Whether it's created money or not, the one year account I purchased promised that $500/wk and therefore I will always feel that I purchased it. So the only solution there is for LL to have to buy it off the LindeX, which is a really really bad idea because it would put them out of business.
Although you dismiss your own suggestion, I actually think it's a very good one! I would certainly agree that you should "get what you pay for", ie. if you pay US$ 9,95 per month, you should get "for free" around L$ 2500 per month. That would be a fair balance in the accounting figures

Now, when the bonus stipend is reduced to zero (it should happen in about a week or two), this means that monthly-paying premium accounts get actually a bit
less L$ than what they're actually paying for. But that's fine, since they are also subsidizing basic accounts. Under this model, and assuming the (Linden-announced) 1:6 ratio of paying customers vs. basic customers, this means that the "extra" L$ 500 you
don't get in Premium goes into the hands of basic accounts - ie. you could pay up to 2 basic account from that. Right now, LL is "stretching" a bit their payments and adding extra L$ to cover for the rest. The solution is to tweak stipends slightly to accomodate. I think that's precisely what LL is doing — earning an average of 5-6,000 L$ due to ratings on Premium (and perhaps half as that on Basic, since the revenue from ratings was quite higher than the base stipend for Basic...) was simply an unworking model that didn't equate with what people were paying in US$...
Still, you're correct — as long as people are, in a sense, "paying for L$" with their account fees, the stipends can be mantained. They just need a bit of tweaking.
From: Milkbone Albion
So if you want a solution to remove stipend: Then go to a model where there are no premium accounts. Honor the current contracts and when they're done, do away with them. Make everyone purhase their first 512sm land tier and make us purchase L on the LindeX. But see, in the long run LL would not make as much money that way. So it should never happen. Cause if LL goes out of business, SL ends and your 200,000L bank account is worth NOTHING.
I'm not sure I'm following your ideas, replacing premium accounts by buying L$ from LindeX is never a solution for LL, since LL does not earn US$ that way (they only cover their Visa charges). How is this related to "having no stipends"?
From: Milkbone Albion
conclusion: LL needs stipend because it's a sneaky way of selling created $L. They make money when they create money and sell it, in the form of stipend. They need to make money for SL to exist. Again, the point of my original post: ..LL is a business that needs to make a profit..
I agree with the argument that LL needs to supply L$ into the economy, related to the number of residents — the more residents in SL, the more money has to be created, assuming that all residents are active agents — and that the stipends is the easiest and more logical way to do it in a fair way (there are alternatives, of course, but this one at least benefits
all residents).
I'm not actually in favour of getting rid of the stipends. Echoing Philip on this, I think that stipends should be adjusted to balance the economy, which is a quite different thing. The L$ available in the economy should increase if the economy demands it — not if the residents demand it, which is something completely different. If you pour money into the economy, and it's not generating more transactions in the right proportion, something is amiss, and you should balance it out, by taking money away from the economy. That's what LL is doing — nothing radical, just slightly nudging here and there to make sure things work out properly. I imagine that the simple fact of eliminating the bonus stipends will be more than enough to prevent inflation (in the old sense of the word). And I also think that we should set up a CPI some day to be able to watch if prices are rising or falling, instead of wildly speculating on that
