Do we have an "SL-Killer"?

There has been lots of talk in the various forums about the Adult Content changes about people leaving to use Blue Mars. When I read about it, I'm not sure quite whether it's going to work for me (don't have a powerful enough computer), but it brought something else to mind...

Linden Labs are currently the market leader in Virtual Worlds and there doesn't seem to be a strong number two. This means that they can sort of rest on their laurels a bit. Obviously if and when a new Virtual World comes along that has all the good features of SL but does it *better* (better eye-candy, better performance, better management) then a lot of people that aren't happy with one or another aspect of SL are going to jump ship, and the exodus will start.

That, in turn, may force LL to make some drastic changes in order to stay number one (either that or just fiddle while Rome burns and die a death while someone else takes over).

So, question 1 - is Blue Mars going to be an "SL killer", in your opinion?
Question 2 - do you feel that LL will up their game (possibly with SL Version 2) or will they just sit back on their laurels and slowly disappear?
Question 3 - What would it take to keep SL ahead of worlds like Blue Mars?

The only SL killer I can think of is LL

I think the appeal of virtual worlds is fading and SL is going to become less virtual in the future in order to keep people interested.

Blue Mars has a really nice 3D engine, but once amateurs get their hands on it then it'll probably end up looking like SL's mainland.

I don't know Blue Mars, so I don't it's potential, but I am convinced that LL has alienated enough people that SL will certainly be impacted as soon a viable alternative comes along. I get the sense that a lot of people are waiting for, and wanting, an alternative to come along.

I think, when a viable alternate virtual world comes into being, all of the negative, LL's haters, who bitch about SL constantly will leave for the new world, and the rest of us will have a party to celebrate their departure.

Just sayin....

Handy

There was a thread about this a week or two ago. I looked at a video of BM's cityscape - it was no better than SL with shadows and the avatars are so-so. That's in contrast to the better known BM video of the trees and waterfall, which are very impressive.

I don't know what BM's terms of service are going to be, but it's unlikely it'll be a building and sex free-for-all!!!!!

I, for one, don't think there's much to complain about in SL, and most of what there is to complain about is the fault of residents, not LL.

I think SL is morphing into something other than just an entertainment platform. With all the non-stop blog postings about education and businesses, I am beginning to feel like we just do not matter to them anymore.

If another virtual world appears that has the same functionality and economy as SL and actually shows appreciation for the customers that pay them, then yes I would say SL is in trouble.

When they get shadows sorted, it will become more viable for serious 3D simulations for architects etc.

keep in mind that BM is not the same as SL is.
It's a MMORPG, which like WOW, is not the same context in play as SL is. In SL you can create your own items, textures, anims, sounds, scripts etc.. in BM you cannot, it's a world created by the developers, in which you (if at all possible), can buy goodies to place inworld (no edit possible, just the item as is). Furthermore in MMORPG's you have quests and rules you as part of a faction/breed of whatever, should follow closely, in order to gain extra powers/money/items.
This makes Blue Moon a GAME, and SL is not, since it has no quests or levels to complete (game objectives so to say).

The products, are not in the same genre of entertainment.

You got that right!

I'm hoping a good no.2 VW world does emerge......just to keep LL honest and having the effect of breaking up their monopoly which allows them to continually piss all over their customer base.

I will be taking a look at Blues Mar, I have a developers license for it. If you don't try it, you just can't know.

I for one think SIM tiers are a bit excessive for what you really get.....if someone else could provide a better value for money product, LL would have to reconsider their Tier structure.

Some of the SL clones are offerning that but a look at their residents' forums shows that all is not sweetness and light for them either!

I'm not talking about those Open grid products......I doubt any of those will ever seriously threatened SL. I'm talking about something like Blue Mars that has a proper company behind it with Tech resources and funding but being more like SL rather than WoW.
It doesn't necessarily need to be a SL clone like the Open Grids.....can have completely different architecture providing the concept is the same i.e 3D VW, with an economy and all users can create.

When there's competition in any given marketplace....the consumer wins! (or benefits)

Yeh, just a something that runs ok where you can build and use money... That's all it takes.

Second Life is the only virtual world of it's kind- a user-created, social environment with an economy. The media have sung the praises of the product as the next great wave of the future. And Linden Lab does an awful job managing Second Life.

In a credit-driven free market, one would expect to see competitors sprouting up everywhere.

Yet it doesn't happen. Potential competitors seem to pop up, but not stick around long.

So why?

It has to be because there really is no profit to be had with this kind of product. The cost of production exceeds what people are willing to pay for the product.

They were already rattling on about that stuff in 2005 when I joined. It's a pipe dream, not a sea change, and that ain't seaweed in the pipe they're smoking.

Question 1 - is Blue Mars going to be an "SL killer", in your opinion?

Not in the slightest. The external content creation tools and content creator registration process and recurring fees to keep your created content in-world will squash any content development by anything less than a large for-profit company. You can't even make a skirt for Blue Mars without investing thousands of dollars in high-end software that most individuals can't afford. Even if you already have that hugely expensive software suite, you have to pay for the right to create anything, and pay for the right to keep what you created in-world. Apparenty, if someone develops a set of "MarsPro Golf Clubs", and then sells a bunch of them, And then quits paying their recurring content creator fees, all those SOLD products go *poof!* from the customer's inventories.

What Blue Mars is, if it ever gets beyond vaporware, is a shared environment for would-be virtual world game designers. Invest thounsands of dollars in a City (Sim) and development apps, making a Mars Golf Resort, and hope to get people to visit and pay you enough to cover monthly fees and make a profit. Yeah. Good luck with that.

Question 2 - do you feel that LL will up their game (possibly with SL Version 2) or will they just sit back on their laurels and slowly disappear?

I think they do need to make improvements in what SL offers, but Blue Mars won't be the driving force for change.

Question 3 - What would it take to keep SL ahead of worlds like Blue Mars?

They already are, because anyone can create content in SL. SecondLife is lightyears ahead of Blue Mars in terms of user access to creative tools. And Blue Mars has absolutely no plans to make content creation accessable to the masses. It's a resort for people to come to and spend money, paying a small number of specialized developers.

Customer service is all it would take to drive those in SL to whatever they are providing. I don't see WOW or BM as competition for SL. It's like comparing apples to oranges.

Potential competitors as in "services that look superficially similar" or potential customers as in "services that provide similar functionality"? Apples or oranges? I think it's more like Apples and Nintendos. They're not different kinds of fruits, they're different kinds of products.

And the only one I can think of that hasn't "stuck around long" is Lively. There.com and Activeworlds and IMVU and Habbo are all humming along with substantial user bases, catering to people who want game consoles.

Nobody's tried, therefore there's no money to be made? I dunno, if you found yourself in an alternate 1982 where the only entertainment-oriented home computers were the Apple II and Apple II clones (which is where things almost seemed to be headed at one point, believe it or not) would you say there was no money to be made in home computers? Or would you be asking why Radio Shack and Atari and Commodore hadn't bothered to enter the business in that timeline?

I don't know WHY there's not been anyone other than SL clones trying to create a Cyberspace/Metaverse/Other Plane, but I don't think it's because we're in the alternate timeline.

Edit: Have I missed a bunch of alternate virtual worlds? What are the "[p]otential competitors [that] seem to pop up, but not stick around long"?

Edit:You stole the words right out of my typeahead buffer.

I was hoping this was going to be a Jack The Ripper thread.

The customer is always wrong?

The Blue Mars Management team, so far, seem to be a little more responsive and upfront. I think Linden Lab needs to completely separate their 'Corporate America' mentality people away from the community (customer) development component (which they do not have as of yet).

The millions of creative, artistic people that are drawn to this community will not adopt the group-think mentality of Corporate America. Shoving it down their collective throats only leads to bad PR.

They need a strong Community Manager who will not allow such nonsense as we see with the AR system and the cavalier attitudes toward premium customers.

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Does that mean you can't use something like Blender, or an educational copy of Maya, or a stolen copy of Maya? I heard the same argument for why sculpties were unfair, but they're everywhere now.



Also keep in mind that to be successful in SL (as in, generating income to live off of) you also have fees to pay. Many thousands are spent on classifieds in order to be heard over the noise. In a system with a higher barrier to entry there won't be so much noise.

And that's where BM may shine. Maybe the content will be higher quality, not so redundant, and not so full of hucksterism and fugliness in its presentation, so maybe BM will appeal to a higher-end audience (or maybe even a wider audience), so those fees won't just go into a frickin' hole.

I thought LL's acquisition of SLX was rather curious given Phil's desire for 3D amazon.coms where customers interact with each other in a 3D space. Rather than making that a reality for even its own customers, LL added a 2D shopping site to its repertoire.

And those are still valid arguments as to why sculpties suck.

But you don't have to pay anything to be successful in SL (as in, having people treat you like a rock star because they suddenly notice that you're the guy who created something they find really really cool). I make more money programming in RL than I'd ever make in SL, but I don't get groupies in RL because, well, nobody in RL knows the names of any actual programmers... let alone recognizing them.

Success is where you find it.

^ This. ^