LL Massive fail in progress?

SL is just fine- I am sure I am not alone in saying I am not going anywhere- and I hve been paying tier for three years now - things get bumpy then they straighten out.

SL is just reflecting the state of the RL economy... and THAT had better recover soon...

/me checks pathetically diminished portfolio yet again

This is probably right.

Its not really a bad thing for mainland either. The adult sims, much as I love them, tend to be the ugliest sims...

Mainland just looks more and more visually pleasing everyday as people with good business sense but no design head get pushed off to Zindra, and those of us with good taste but no idea what a dollar is hang back on mainland.

I actually see signs of recovery in my area and this past quarter, for the first time since early last year, my 401k did not lose any money -- though it will still take quite a bit to make up for what I did lose in the last year.

I think its because you still can't walk 4m in SL without tripping over a bot farm.


Shopping bots is basically how land flippers seem to work.

Send a bot out to buy up in certain price ranges, and either resell, or hold for a human team to come and evaluate. And it think that right now, they're are causing their owners to lose a -lot- of money by buying land that is still dropping, or getting into buy/sell cycles over the same plot of land when two or more competing bots show up...

What I don't get is a situation in my former home sim. In a moment of "I've had it" I sold my last 512 and had to keep lowering it til a landbot grabbed it. (It was a really stupid thing for me to do as I wasn't paying tier on it...just one of those "emotional girl things in the midst of partnership issues." Gah, I could kick myself.)

Anyway, there are parcels on that sim that were for sale during the two years I lived there and are STILL for sale, some coming down in price. The average 512 on that sim is anywhere from 3K - to slightly over 2K; however the one *I* sold for nothing is listed at...get this....over 10K!!!!!!! There are two waterfront parcels facing protected Linden Ocean for around L13,400. I've never heard of the land group and can't find them in search.

Do they have so much money they can sit on that 512 and think someone in this SL economy is going to pay 10k? (Of course if it's their only property they're not paying tier, but then would they have a bot?)

And the land is not even anything special - it's smack dab in the middle of the sim. The market is bizarre lately.

No... there are just a lot of land dealers who have no concept of the market value of their land.

Or they don't want it to sell, but are willing to let it if it does - they may own something nearby they want to keep a nice view for.

People right now are buying protected road and protected waterfront land for under 2000, sometimes under 1000. Anything above 1500-1700 for a 512 anywhere on mainland is almost certainly overpriced. Though that said, if its a plot next to something really commercially hot, it might be worth a bit more for a hopeful shopowner. The same facts would ruin its value for a residential purpose.

By shopping bots I mean bots that pretend to be shoppers in stores. Clubs have chat bots, and stores are getting shopping bots.

I don't know how other estate owners are doing - we don't exactly have a club. However, I can say that July has been the worst month in the history of my business. This is despite being ranked 1st or 2nd in top land keyword searches, running an expensive classified, and making changes that should INCREASE rentals (such as setting up Web property listings). I know summers are slower, and I'm sticking it out for a few months, but this just feels much worse. I have a bad feeling.

update copy

Maybe half the mainland could sink into the ocean driving up the price of the remaining land. Glut in supply? Remove the supply.

Somebody reported in a thread not too long ago that the concurrency decline was larger during peak hours than off-peak. I was too lazy to independently confirm that observation, but if it's true, it's a weird sort of bot to account for the decline. Admittedly, there are "daylight only" traffic-gaming schemes (and, for all I know, in off-peak areas, some "night only" traffic gamers--which would actually make the traffic-gaming less disruptive to real shoppers). Nonetheless, based on bot-thinning alone, it seemed difficult to account for the purported disparity in what hours saw the most concurrency decline.

Okay, I won't be that lazy. The thread was .

What we need is for LL to realize that they've been their own worst enemy for the last year. They need to stop with the bipolar psychotic BS pricing moves. They need to fix the issues and implement the suggestions that residents want. They need to realize that residents are customers, not (just) cash cows.

They need to figure out that word-of-mouth is worth a lot and that a lot of us, bimbo's though we may seem, are actually RL professionals. Ya know, the ones that you've been courting at the expense of your existing residents...

SL may be hazardous: It turns RL professionals into bimbos!

(Spread the word. It might generate some buzz. )

I read the post by Elanthius in a link Desmond Shang provided in a thread here. Elanthius had a good point - LL makes money on the tier, not the land prices. So they might have no interest in reducing supply.

They don't collect tier on abandoned land. Is there any source for how much abandoned mainland there is?

Up to a point that is true. However (talking about mainland of course) if Elanthius and other large scale land owners can't sell the land they hold, then I am guessing that at some point it starts getting abandoned. Then no one is paying tier.

The thing that will save LL's butt is estate land, if those folks can keep paying the major tier that they are charged each month. I guess that when that gets "abandoned" it just goes off the grid, but estate stuff isn't my area of interest so I really don't know.

For sure a handful of premium accounts each buying a 512 will not make a dent in the glut of land already out there.

Accelerate the abandonment of Mainland parcels and encourage everyone to move to either Zindra, Bay City, or lease from (or purchase) private sims. This is a more palatable capacity consolidation and turnover strategy than kicking people off Mainland directly; let the economic forces do it. Then recycle the mainland capacity as sims For Education to school systems (teenagers/preteens, but not the Teen Grid) and Open Government portals and such. Try to get government (US "stimulus" and "infrastructure" money directly or indirectly. Expect all-new users and all-new content from the influx, with a long tail towards future revenues.

There will be chickens in every pot.

I doubt this will happen.
There is no way I will be moving to Zindra, Bay City/Nautilus or estate land for a variety of reasons unique to each place.
My mainland sim is too good to let go unless there comes a point where I can no longer afford it. I am happy where I am and the only thing that will change that is if the rules tighten to the point where sale/abandonment seem the only option left. This will be long after the fun has gone and in this case I would probably end up with no land at all rather than move to Zindra, Bay City, Nautilus or any estate land. This end game would not be part of any accelerated abandonment of mainland for me, I can see it as a possibility in the future but not any time close.
I would be surprised if I am the only one who feels this way.

Customers are merely an interim stopgap to an all-new customer base. "Word of mouth" as perceived by the new potential customers can be manipulated by marketing.

Second Life is a highly reliable platform suitable for business and education with millions of satisfied customers. There will always be a tiny minority of unhappy complainers for any service, and you can see evidence of that on the web, too. But millions of happy customers who don't say anything bad, and the success stories of major businesses like IBM and the endorsement of educational institutions and government agencies tell the real story. If you're not clear, just read the official web pages.

The next major revenue for Linden Lab will be based on government money. Your tax dollars at work.

It's already happening, that's the point. Of course there will be a few traditional mainland customers like you remaining, but statistically speaking, you are in a tiny minority. Don't be surprised - this is why people are saying "Where is everyone?" and "Why is there no more content?" and "Why does it seem like there's nobody on mainland anywhere I go?" and "Why is there no more mainland land sales market?" and all that.

LL does not view the current customers as a viable cash cow; that's why they are shifting to a new and better pasture. That's what Zindra and all their marketing for the last 18 months is all about. It's not like it is a secret; they shout it as loud as they can constantly. (Well, of course you leave out the part about what you're doing to the current customer base - that's just negative, and you only talk about the positive.) Is this really not 95% transparent?

You know what I meant! Don't make me throw a sheep at you!!


Mmmm... KoolAid..

Just a thought...

when they move land sales to the web, I wonder if this will mean you'll no longer see land for sale inworld?

Something to consider, particularly if the rate of abandonment increases.

This new feature is possibly also another reason Elanthius is considering downsizing. For those who currently use technology to pick up land cheaply this will be a major blow to their acquisition method.

for the rest of us it's just another move to being facebooky - between the dashboard, this and xsl most things will be done on the web rather than inworld. It's certainly an interesting move by LL to abandon the concept of an immersive world and move a lot of the focus to the 2d web.

Actually that would bother me less than you think.
Firstly, I doubt there would be no content, besides I am quite capable of making most things I need these days, secondly there are very few people around on mainland when I get to log in anyway so I doubt I would notice the difference, and thirdly if I had to make do with the land I have then that would be fine.

Anyway you are wrong, this accelerated abandonment path you speak of isn't happening yet, what we are in now is the very slow stage of people trying to sell up due to a variety of factors, some due to SL/LL and some due to RL. So there is a lot more yellow than before and a little more purple, this is the way it will stay for some time and I believe will be painfully drawn out as it moves towards total mainland abandonment, if that ever happens.

People still have not come to terms with the fact the land they paid upwards of L$30/sqm for is now really only going to sell for peanuts comparatively. Don't underestimate the ability of some people to bury their head in the sand instead of seeing what is reality.

I believe this may indeed be happening. Direct customer support to individuals is not a scalable strategy; let estate owners/managers do it.
I believe the next major *expansion* for LL may be corporate and government based. However, believe me, there are better 3D platforms out there for government and most industry, ones that are tailored for those uses. After all, education and government does not need the rest of the grid, the unwashed masses. They do not wish to participate in a general society. That is the domain of entertainment. LL'd be insane to walk away from the entertainment market (what SL is now); the available market is virtually unlimited.

You said the key word, "platform". For education, business, and government, I could easily see a loosely federated set of private grids emerging over time. This may involve LL's platform (the eventual "behind the firewall" offering), or the folks at Forterra, ProtonMedia, or other 3D grid developers may have something to say about it.

But if LL walks away from the entertainment market, then they deserve to dry up and blow away. Which is what would happen.
.