LL Massive fail in progress?

I think their previous business model for a grid based largely on entertainment (another way of saying "general use" isn't viable long-term, due to costs versus market size. (It's already failed, probably, but we are not privy to any inside information to exactly characterize that. All public reports from LL is that everything is super rosey, growth is skyrocketing, of course.) Compare SL to WOW or something and compare costs. LL will continue to have entertainment customers, especially if they can shift the support requirements largely to private governance as you mentioned, but it will just be a small part of the main customer base ("education" etc.) And without aggressively persuing those speciality markets, it won't happen all by itself before there's no more funding, hence the action over the last 18 months.

As for why the new segments will want often want to be on the LL grid, as opposed to private grids (even federated) -- it's about critical mass. Those people will want to interoperate with each other, for content and for cross-promotion and crossover users, and being on the main grid is easier. Not just technically easier in many ways, but psychologically. It's the difference between going down the block versus visiting another planet. (If all the problems of seamless grid interconnects were solved, it would be very much less of an issue though.) At that point, LL is just in a commodity hosting situation, or perhaps a trusted broker. Actually, in that supergrid future I do have a hard time understanding how they will stay in business. But all the current Directors may have "cleared cash" ( )by then, so maybe they don't need to plan in detail quite that far out. Being agile and all that.

I think when things get to that stage, Phillip Linden will be pleased that he helped create the beginnings of the metaverse. I don't think he personally is really in it for the money, in the end; he has a vision.

There's decent money to be made on a correct read of the future.

Take your posted predictions and base a business plan on it.

I think we're just going to have to agree to disagree here. I DO think that if LL is going to be successful in 'entertainment', they would have to make some changes. And, truthfully, it would be impossible to resolve without insight into LL's balance sheet.Oh, yes. Let's think about the Arpanet - initially, all the universities were on it directly, as they are in SL now. At this point though, universities have a public web presence and a very different intranet.

As tunnels, VPNs, etc. evolved, university networks retreated behind firewalls, and they now exist as a mesh of interconnected intranets. You and I may be betting on different sequences of technology evolution for the education/government/business market, but I think we agree on the eventual outcome.

Inworld lad has no value to the outside 2d world though. If they move too far out and onto the web, there is no reason to even have a 3D world anymore...

I was involved in that (since 76) and remember it slightly differently than your description, but I am not sure what analogies to make regarding the tiny details.


I don't think anyone questions the coming supergrid; certainly LL was talking about it even when I got on SL in 2006, and of course they're heavily involved in the open standards for it. Meanwhile, yes, please pass the popcorn!

This is what concerns me. If LL can't pull in the profits they want through mainland tier because of mass abandonment, they may start jacking up tier for the private islands to make up the difference.

That would be a bonehead move - people would then be forced to abandon those, as well.

The smarter move in my opinion would be to lower tier all around.

LL are not well known for making the smart move sadly.

Only if they have a death wish.

It just has to be the case that private estate rentals are feeling the pinch as Mainland prices plummet. Sure, there are exceptions: Caledon is effectively its own economy, and Caledonians aren't going to retreat to Mainland no matter how cheap it is; there are other estate-only dwellers who will always think Mainland isn't sufficiently "gated community" for them. On the margin, however, there simply must be folks who otherwise would have rented on an estate but just can't pass up the bargain-basement Mainland prices. Until there's some reversal in the Mainland slide, such pressure on estates won't subside.

You'd have to be some mind reader to predict when LL will next mess up your business plan, but there is room to adapt and move ahead in the short term and be prepared to change course again in the future.

The sky isn't falling that's for sure.

I have no clue about facebook, because I use a simple mirror to see my face and a good book to read a quality-story, but: my small austrian medias of my small austrian country brought a rumor that facebook would plan to install a currency - similiar to the L$-system - to enable facebook-people to create hmmm? facebook-things and to trade them for cents like we trade primware for cents.

While reading this in one of our newspapers again, I think that facebook is inspired by LL and LL is inspired by facebook.

And since new LL has a facebook-presence afaik.

I don't like to think further what that could mean, but since LL are on a trip to create ideas instead concentrating only on technics and service, I would describe my feelings about the near future of SL as "not so good"...

SL was and is and will be ever then wonderful, if the LL-management avoids to think things and stops to plan plans. All what we need is the LL tech staff to hold the hardware fit and the code stable and a totaly unproductive, apathic and locked in a container made of 5 meter opaque steel management.

1 user wishes she could decipher Desmond's inscrutable posts.

I wanna make money too, darn it.

Reduce tier charges.

Increase land allowances per tier.

Let people pay their tiers in their own currency.

Increase prims per plot. (as per open sim and others)

Increase size of prims (as per open sim and others)

New prim shapes.

New building features.

Yes and yes and yes to all of those. James Joyce's yes and again yes.

I would also absotutely love it if they made the avatar mesh better. There are slider features I would like to have. Like changing the shape of the eyes easier.

As a followup to my post #31, I went over to my former water sim last night as I've been having this nagging thought in the back of my mind to go ahead and just purchase a 512. I can always do something with it and that sim is "home" as I never lived anywhere else as long.

As I mentioned in the previous post, instead of the prices there falling, they seem to be increasing, which I find curious with all the land falling talk lately. The least expensive 512 (7.0) was also in the most desirable location for me. Another 512 was next to it and a 1024 off to the side but I had at least some open water on one side of the 512 I wanted.

I decided to sleep on it, went back over just now and everything has changed!!!!! Literally overnight. The 512 I wanted was sold, along with the 1024 to a group that has a house on it. The 512 next to it is selling for around L10.0 sqm but now has any view blocked by the 512 I *did* want (and that was available last night). To top everything off, the new owners seem to be ban-line happy so pretty red lines criss-cross the grid. I was a bit disheartened but have seen people come and go from there fairly often, so will just keep an eye on it.

QUESTION: I am woefully ignorant of most of the rest of mainland. (Your maps are wonderful, Carl, but map-reading was never one of my greater strengths.) Can anyone recommend other water sims or sims that front oceans on the mainland to check out?

Thanks!

I have waterfront land in Molay and I have near waterfront in Omanix which borders Homerlone, I think that has waterfront too.

However what I don't know is if the ocean is protected or not, I'm not sure how you find that out.

Thanks Ciaran, I'll take a look at those. From what I understand, protected ocean is owned by Governor Linden as shown in the About Land info. (If not, please someone let me know. The two oceans surrounding the Warbluster sim have that notation and I've yet to see anything built on them.)

Qie is sweet on Jannae?! Who knew?

Type "Blake Sea" or "Nautilus" into your map and start your search there. It's some of the most extensive open water in SL

But also some of the most expensive real estate I think? My main issue is that the plots on the water sim of Warbluster have risen in price as other mainland is falling.

(Just to be clear, I enjoy living on water sims...not sims facing the water. *smiles*)

ETA: I looked back and noticed that I did say I was also looking for mainland that faced the ocean, but I truly prefer total water sims. Sorry about that confusion.)

Then Blake sea is still the place to look. Search around the perimeters. I found a little 512 fronting a permanent channel that feeds into the Blake Sea for $L2000 last week. And I can see a couple of 4096 plots protected beachfront in Tkachiev for $L44000 right now and they can be combined into an 8192. A 592 water lot in Firespire for 5.5 per meter and a 1024 same sim for $L4 per meter.

Good luck in the hunt!

It's not restricted to mainland either. Just done another impromptu check, and of all the 50-60 private island regions nearest me on the map, mine is the only one with anyone on it. Me

I then do a generally random sweep in all directions, and it is almost impossible to find another green dot, and it has been like that for quite some time now.

I can't imagine why so many people are paying private island tier, and not using them.

Rock

either you work for LL or you have not been paying attention to the fact that their marketing efforts are ineffectual and suck donkey balls. If you think there is another boom in new customers coming, you are way off the mark.

I'd also like to see proof of a single major real world company success story in SL. Or at the very least get your definition of success as it applies to companies here.

Thanks, Jesse

They're talking the talk though. http://dusanwriter.com/index.php/2009/07/28/linden-labs-grid-for-business-its-all-work/

I can't think of a single reason apart from marketing that any company would want to be in here rather than a behind the corporate firewall using the LL product or the opengrid.

There's no guaranteed data protection, there's always the risk of content theft, griefers, the unstable platform in general and the lack of consistent policies...

Educators are no better, they too should be behind a firewall rather than trusting LL to keep secure their communications. The excuse that it's good for field trips is rather spurious.

However it does make for better marketing and for a better reputation than sex'n'sleaze.

I'm sure those missing millions of facebook type customers will be a lot happier when they can tell people where they spend their time without being called all manner of basement dwelling, sociopathic sex fiend loser and can network and shop in the 2d and slip in world to catch up with those they've been 2ding with all day, try on their latest purchases from XSL that they made while doing the 2d thing and live that lifestyle of the rich and famous.

I could be wrong of course.