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The Great SL Recession of '04?

Ace Cassidy
Resident Bohemian
Join date: 5 Apr 2004
Posts: 1,228
11-04-2004 10:03
From: Meiyo Sojourner
Anyway, on a different note... I was thinking that maybe there should be more ways for LL to siphon L$ out of the market so there's not quite as much of an ever growing volume in circulation. (FYI: I know jack about economics.) Granted, uploading a texture or getting hitched will cost ya L$10 but is that making an impact at all?

-Meiyo


The drop in land prices and the drop in the L$ go hand-in-hand. Auction land denominated in L$ is the biggest siphon of L$ out of circulation, so as land prices drop, the number of L$ being removed is reduced as well.

This will be a little trickier for LL to manage if they do indeed want the money supply to grow at the same rate as subscribers. They could auction more land in L$, but that's going to affect their bottom line. LL investors will want to see as much of that new land denominated in US$ as possible.

The alternative would be to downwardly adjust the forumulas for those L$ that come into existence (primarily weekly stipends and daily dwell payments).

- Ace
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"Free your mind, and your ass will follow" - George Clinton
Anshe Chung
Business Girl
Join date: 22 Mar 2004
Posts: 1,615
11-04-2004 10:05
From: Maxx Monde
I think things are fine. If you're crazy enough to make your life land brokering, then hey, take your lumps, my chicken-of-the-sea.

If you can't hack it, then dump your stock and stop complaining about it. I don't hear people who make clothes post threads about how LL can 'Fix the fashion business'....because they deal with their fluctuations.

Suck it up, jesus, its getting embarassing.


This thread is neither about realtor business nor about my business but about state of SL economy as a whole. If people like you consider my contributing to this thread or my starting another thread about how to help SL grow only to be self-motivated "complaining", then all you achieve is that I keep my observations to myself and stop contribute to useful discussion and simply go about my business without giving one *censored* about SL economy eroding even further.
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Meiyo Sojourner
Barren Land Hater
Join date: 17 Jul 2004
Posts: 144
11-04-2004 10:05
From: blaze Spinnaker
What is this vision? I'd like to know.
From: someone
Buddy flys me around to all these cool different places in-world and finally puts me into a nice little starter home on 1024 meters on the edge of a lake.


http://secondlife.blogs.com/philip/2004/10/evolutionary_fi.html#more

Sorry, but if that is the vision we need to know ahead of time what SL is going to do to land prices. And vague promises about "more SIMs" and what not isn't going to cut it.

As an aside, I feel it's important to point out that Phillip later retracted his statement about camping at the Newb area.

-Meiyo
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I was just pondering the immortal words of Socrates when he said...
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MrsJakal Suavage
Purple Butterfly
Join date: 18 Jul 2004
Posts: 1,434
11-04-2004 10:06
From: Anshe Chung
This thread is neither about realtor business nor about my business but about state of SL economy as a whole. If people like you consider my contributing to this thread or my starting another thread about how to help SL grow only to be self-motivated "complaining", then all you achieve is that I keep my observations to myself and stop contribute to useful discussion and simply go about my business without giving one *censored* about SL economy eroding even further.


Did you honestly expect anything different? ;)
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blaze Spinnaker
1/2 Serious
Join date: 12 Aug 2004
Posts: 5,898
11-04-2004 10:06
Yeah, he editted it out of his blog as well. Which is why that wasn't included in my quote.
_____________________
Taken from The last paragraph on pg. 16 of Cory Ondrejka's paper "Changing Realities: User Creation, Communication, and Innovation in Digital Worlds :

"User-created content takes the idea of leveraging player opinions a step further by allowing them to effectively prototype new ideas and features. Developers can then measure which new concepts most improve the products and incorporate them into the game in future patches."
Anshe Chung
Business Girl
Join date: 22 Mar 2004
Posts: 1,615
11-04-2004 10:10
From: MrsJakal Suavage
Did you honestly expect anything different? ;)


You are right, might have been a bit optimistic hoping for productive discussion without personal attack. Now that some of the forum troll seem to find their way back I am off before the baroness bashing distract from the real problems of SL. Take care ;-)
_____________________
ANSHECHUNG.COM: Buy land - Sell land - Rent land - Sell sim - Rent store - Earn L$ - Buy L$ - Sell L$

SLEXCHANGE.COM: Come join us on Second Life's most popular website for shopping addicts. Click, buy and smile :-)
Zuzi Martinez
goth dachshund
Join date: 4 Sep 2004
Posts: 1,860
11-04-2004 10:15
i dunno Anshe, what are you after? i guess it's not sympathy since you said you're not complaining. if you really are vital for the SL economy all by yourself maybe Linden needs to nationalize you to protect the economy.

businesses come and go and if yours is going you need to get into another line of work. you don't owe it to the economy to hang on and take a loss just to save it (if that's even possible). am i completely wrong or if all y'all cashed out wouldn't the land still be there and be for sale until someone else bought it? it's not like you're making clothes and if you go then no one else will sell your clothes. land stays put right?

am i fucking dense or is it normal not to understand what the problem is in every single "Big Problem in SL" post?
Maxx Monde
Registered User
Join date: 14 Nov 2003
Posts: 1,848
11-04-2004 10:16
Hey, did the thread all of sudden get a lot better?


Aaaah..


Anyway, about the L$. Down it goes! Where it stops, nobody knows!
blaze Spinnaker
1/2 Serious
Join date: 12 Aug 2004
Posts: 5,898
11-04-2004 10:18
I'm going to assume rhetorical.

The point is that Anshe is one of few who have made very significant investments.

She is rapidly becoming a cautionary tale for anyone else who is interested in making similar type investments in SL.

Cautionary tales, btw, are a bad thing when it comes to investing. Not a good thing.
_____________________
Taken from The last paragraph on pg. 16 of Cory Ondrejka's paper "Changing Realities: User Creation, Communication, and Innovation in Digital Worlds :

"User-created content takes the idea of leveraging player opinions a step further by allowing them to effectively prototype new ideas and features. Developers can then measure which new concepts most improve the products and incorporate them into the game in future patches."
Ace Cassidy
Resident Bohemian
Join date: 5 Apr 2004
Posts: 1,228
11-04-2004 10:19
From: Maxx Monde
Anyway, about the L$. Down it goes! Where it stops, nobody knows!


I am bear, hear me roar.

- Ace
_____________________
"Free your mind, and your ass will follow" - George Clinton
Maxx Monde
Registered User
Join date: 14 Nov 2003
Posts: 1,848
11-04-2004 10:21
Dude, you're totally waiting down at $3.20 aren't ya :)

hehehe.

But I won't guess, it is interesting though.
AmbientGroove McLean
Wandering Soul
Join date: 27 May 2004
Posts: 28
11-04-2004 10:22
I don't have the patience to read all of the replies, but wish to address the original post. My opinion is strictly one of a non-financial viewpoint. I am but a consumer, not a creator. I personally hate malls. It is impossible to find anything if you go there in search of any one specific thing. I admit I started out my shopping rhoutine by just starting at the beginning and spending the next 8 hours sorting through booths and endless merchandise, but have since started using the Find option to narrow down the locations that are classified as having a particular good. I now shop at only specialty stores that I'm in and out of in less than 10 minutes with the item I had in mind safely tucked into my Inventory. Down with the malls! *ducks and runs*
Ace Cassidy
Resident Bohemian
Join date: 5 Apr 2004
Posts: 1,228
11-04-2004 10:27
From: Maxx Monde
Dude, you're totally waiting down at $3.20 aren't ya :)

hehehe.

But I won't guess, it is interesting though.


While I'm always honest about my position and try to share my true views of the GOM marketplace, I tend to not reveal specific orders that might be mine.

However, I assure you that NONE of that money sitting at $3.20 is mine. There's somebody else sitting there with US$3000, waiting to buy.

- Ace
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"Free your mind, and your ass will follow" - George Clinton
Surreal Farber
Cat Herder
Join date: 5 Feb 2004
Posts: 2,059
11-04-2004 10:31
From: blaze Spinnaker
The point is that Anshe is one of few who have made very significant investments.


Not true.... even if you only mean significant in terms of $US. Anshe is just very visible, her practices and line of work also draw a lot of comment.

Diversification is still the key to riding out economic lows and changing market directions.

Surreal
Chromal Brodsky
ExperimentalMetaphysicist
Join date: 24 Feb 2004
Posts: 243
11-04-2004 10:39
From: Jacqueline Richelieu
Just as we have seen the rise of malls, we may now see their downfall.


I should probably add to this thread again, lest my earlier post be somehow misconstrued. Anshe's business, or Anshe Inc., if you prefer, worked based upon the manipulation of markets. Calling the comparison I draw a personal attack is so much hand waving and smoke and mirrors in an attempt to draw the reader's attention away from reality. As far as I know, Anshe is a fine and upstanding person who pets kittens, scratches the ears of dogs, kisses babies, and donates all her proceeds to charities. That said, she is influencing my world-- our world, and I'll be damned if, after being solicited for an opinion, I'll stand by while that opinion is attacked without consideration of its meaning or why it might be expessed.

As for malls, I would welcome their decline. Malls and advertising mar the view and, perhaps moreso than any other class of build, saturate my video cards texture memory. This isn't the intent of the proprieters, but it is the impact they have, and I welcome any relief from it. Better for an artisan to live, surrounded by their builds in context, which can also happen to be marked for sale such that a visiting friend or explorer, if so inclined, can purchase.
Ace Cassidy
Resident Bohemian
Join date: 5 Apr 2004
Posts: 1,228
11-04-2004 10:59
frig... let's add some more uncertaintity into the mix.

The GOM ATM in Shinda is timing out after 1.5.6, so nobody can get L$ in or out. I certainly hope this is a short-term condition.

- Ace
_____________________
"Free your mind, and your ass will follow" - George Clinton
Maxx Monde
Registered User
Join date: 14 Nov 2003
Posts: 1,848
11-04-2004 11:00
OooOoOO!!

Well, we'll see, maybe a temporary thing. But we both know what happened last time with the L$, don't we?

SELL SELL SELL!!

Heheh.
Maxx Monde
Registered User
Join date: 14 Nov 2003
Posts: 1,848
11-04-2004 11:20
Slip'n'slide

Down to $4.00 last (L$1.00 in the old blocksize equivalent).

I'd better put my parachute on...
Ace Cassidy
Resident Bohemian
Join date: 5 Apr 2004
Posts: 1,228
11-04-2004 11:26
From: Ace Cassidy
frig... let's add some more uncertaintity into the mix.

The GOM ATM in Shinda is timing out after 1.5.6, so nobody can get L$ in or out. I certainly hope this is a short-term condition.

- Ace


nevermind... it seems to be working now... probably just an email delay created by the whole grid coming up afresh.

- Ace
_____________________
"Free your mind, and your ass will follow" - George Clinton
Meiyo Sojourner
Barren Land Hater
Join date: 17 Jul 2004
Posts: 144
11-04-2004 11:26
From: Chromal Brodsky
As for malls, I would welcome their decline. Malls and advertising mar the view and, perhaps moreso than any other class of build, saturate my video cards texture memory. This isn't the intent of the proprieters, but it is the impact they have, and I welcome any relief from it. Better for an artisan to live, surrounded by their builds in context, which can also happen to be marked for sale such that a visiting friend or explorer, if so inclined, can purchase.

I know better tools for searching for objects are in the works. My guess is once those are delivered the mall scene my take a downward spiral. If users can search for objects they're looking for there won't be much of a need for searching thru a mall on foot. I could see a lot of 512m plots replacing 10 small rental stalls a business owner has spread across the world. Like I said.. just a guess.

-Meiyo
_____________________
I was just pondering the immortal words of Socrates when he said...
"I drank what??"
blaze Spinnaker
1/2 Serious
Join date: 12 Aug 2004
Posts: 5,898
11-04-2004 11:38
It's a very good guess.

Hopefully, LL will give a roadmap when object search comes out so that people with malls can start downsizing them.
_____________________
Taken from The last paragraph on pg. 16 of Cory Ondrejka's paper "Changing Realities: User Creation, Communication, and Innovation in Digital Worlds :

"User-created content takes the idea of leveraging player opinions a step further by allowing them to effectively prototype new ideas and features. Developers can then measure which new concepts most improve the products and incorporate them into the game in future patches."
MrsJakal Suavage
Purple Butterfly
Join date: 18 Jul 2004
Posts: 1,434
11-04-2004 11:44
From: AmbientGroove McLean
I don't have the patience to read all of the replies, but wish to address the original post. My opinion is strictly one of a non-financial viewpoint. I am but a consumer, not a creator. I personally hate malls. It is impossible to find anything if you go there in search of any one specific thing. I admit I started out my shopping rhoutine by just starting at the beginning and spending the next 8 hours sorting through booths and endless merchandise, but have since started using the Find option to narrow down the locations that are classified as having a particular good. I now shop at only specialty stores that I'm in and out of in less than 10 minutes with the item I had in mind safely tucked into my Inventory. Down with the malls! *ducks and runs*



Anytime you need anything just hollar :p ;)
_____________________
Lordfly Digeridoo
Prim Orchestrator
Join date: 21 Jul 2003
Posts: 3,628
11-04-2004 12:19
From: Anshe Chung
You are not telling me anything new, Ace. This is why you haven't found any comments from me about falling land price for long time. Because I considered it natural that after big boom you see price come down.

However, we are at one point now where we don't see prices coming down to some previous level but simply a complete devalution that hurt SL economy as a whole. Prices are at historical low and there is no bottom in sight. At same time, the volume of land transactions in world has fallen dramatically despite falling prices but the volume of land Linden kept pushing on auctions remained constant.


Prices are not as a historical low. Let me know when the average price of 2048 meters of land is selling for less than $L1500. Then it'll be at a historical low.

You DID know that public land sold for $L1/meter, right?

*reads rest of the thread*

LF
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Lordfly Digeridoo
Prim Orchestrator
Join date: 21 Jul 2003
Posts: 3,628
11-04-2004 12:27
From: blaze Spinnaker
Maxx -

It's not that simple. Changing your business model is required, I agree, but having to suffer a loss because, 'whups we just added 40 sims .. tee hee' isn't funny.


So, what, you want the land to stop growing so some people can make a killing at an artificially limited resource?

So, you're FOR a monopoly?

Or what?

From: someone

How would you like it if tomorrow, SecondLife releases something that breaks all of your scripts or makes all of your content unuseable .. with no warning?


First of all, buying and selling land isn't content. It's speculation. Second of all, adding more land into the Grid isn't "breaking" anything, it's just making the current land market valued a little more in the long run.

Third of all, adding more land to the Grid makes absolutely NOTHING "unuseable";(sic); if anything, it makes 40 more Sims "usable".


From: someone

LL has learned, the hard way, to warn people about changes in certain parts of the world. I think it's only fair that they warn people ahead of time when they are about to flood the land market.


It's pretty easy, really... when the current groups of Sims start running out of land to auction, they add more land to the system to auction.

Ta-da! Now wasn't that easy?

LF
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Siggy Romulus
DILLIGAF
Join date: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 5,711
11-04-2004 12:42
Au Contrare - I think a land barons business model being broke becuase 'wups we added 40 sims' is farking hilarious. In fact I've busted up out loud 7 times catching up with this thread.

When people were flogging land for over 10 bucks a meter all I heard was 'Free Market - this is the Free Market'. Now that things ain't so good all I hear is 'The economy is broken!'

If the value of the $L being low is the price to pay for watching this - I for one am more than willing to pay it..

As for me - I make what I wanna make and enjoy myself - anything I get is more or less 'free and clear'. I don't count time spent on hobbies and relaxing as 'business time', and so even if it were .01c a block, I'd still be making a profit.

Siggy.
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From: Jesse Linden
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