Buy Hiro's Katanas! They change color! They are Nifty. You know you want them! Go get them! Tell him Eggy sent you and he may or may not give you a discount! 

Okay, dude. We NEED a new running joke.
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Hiro Pendragon
bye bye f0rums!
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11-04-2004 01:55
Buy Hiro's Katanas! They change color! They are Nifty. You know you want them! Go get them! Tell him Eggy sent you and he may or may not give you a discount! ![]() Okay, dude. We NEED a new running joke. _____________________
Hiro Pendragon
------------------ http://www.involve3d.com - Involve - Metaverse / Emerging Media Studio Visit my SL blog: http://secondtense.blogspot.com |
Ace Cassidy
Resident Bohemian
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11-04-2004 02:03
I'm with Lynn on this one, why does it always have to be something internal that's affecting the price of the L$? We, as a collective whole determine the value of the L$, and nothing else. While L$ are just bits on a hard drive somewhere, they do have a value. How much we value those bits is reflected in the price on GOM. If more people want those bits, the price goes up, and if more people are trying to turn those bits into real money, the price goes down. Its as simple as that. Personally, I see two factors at work here. The first has been discussed, and that was the surge in land prices over the summer, and the subsequent fall in those prices as the Lindens brought more land into play. More people chasing higher priced land, meant more of a demand for those bits. The second was the past indiscriminate buying of L$ by IGE. They kept their wallets open for a very long time and kept the price of the L$ artificialy high as they tried to out-muscle the free market. They're now sitting on about 12% of all the L$ in circulation, and have wisely stopped buying L$. Without IGE buying and keeping the price high, we're seeing it return to its point of equilibrium. But remember, its the collective "us" that determines the value of the L$. My US$0.02... - Ace _____________________
"Free your mind, and your ass will follow" - George Clinton
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Anshe Chung
Business Girl
Join date: 22 Mar 2004
Posts: 1,615
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11-04-2004 02:22
All correct, Ace. I watched the IGE bubble for long time and stopped keeping L$ stock since more than one month, immediately selling whatever surplus I got.
However, we moved beyond IGE bubble now. At GOM Linden$ is now far below exchange rate compared to before IGE start buying. L$ was at 1.25 before IGE started buying, now it is at 1.00 and still keep dropping it seems. This is lower than pre-CNN, pre-There, pre-LandBoom and pre-IGE price. Just the same as land price now is far below any price level I ever seen in SL. When was last time you could buy land for 2 L$ / sqm? So to me this indicate bad economic balance. First Linden Lab made mistake of adding too little land leading to insane price level in summer. Now they make opposite mistake. Neither is good for economy. _____________________
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Damien Fate
Goofy designer
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11-04-2004 02:31
Bleh Ace, I'm not saying that internal things don't affect it, ofcourse I know they do. And I know that it's the people in SL that affect it also.
But doesn't RL affect the people that play SL? I'd say, it does, and that you have to take RL into account also. ![]() _____________________
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Ace Cassidy
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11-04-2004 02:42
However, we moved beyond IGE bubble now. We haven't even begun to get beyond that bubble. If and when IGE decides to unload the L$11M that they're sitting on, and which they're going to have difficulty selling on their website at their current prices, then we'll see that bubble burst. I'm afraid that we haven't seen the worst of that yet. So to me this indicate bad economic balance. First Linden Lab made mistake of adding too little land leading to insane price level in summer. Now they make opposite mistake. Neither is good for economy. Philip Linden made it clear a couple of Town Halls ago that their plan is to bring new land out at a rate equal to the rate of growth in the subscriber base. To me, that sounds like a perfect plan for long-term land price stability. - Ace _____________________
"Free your mind, and your ass will follow" - George Clinton
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Hiro Pendragon
bye bye f0rums!
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11-04-2004 02:46
We haven't even begun to get beyond that bubble. If and when IGE decides to unload the L$11M that they're sitting on, and which they're going to have difficulty selling on their website at their current prices, then we'll see that bubble burst. I'm afraid that we haven't seen the worst of that yet. Philip Linden made it clear a couple of Town Halls ago that their plan is to bring new land out at a rate equal to the rate of growth in the subscriber base. To me, that sounds like a perfect plan for long-term land price stability. - Ace I was thinking ... the more that money changes hands, the easier it is to get because people are more willing to spend since they can get more. Maybe seeing some deflation is a sign that the economy in SL is going well, believe it or not... As for what Anshe said, I don't think she was centrally attacking the long-term plan; I think she was just plain saying there's too much land for sale. Take a look at the map for land for sale; she may be right. There's a LOT of white on the map. _____________________
Hiro Pendragon
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Ace Cassidy
Resident Bohemian
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11-04-2004 02:50
Bleh Ace, I'm not saying that internal things don't affect it, ofcourse I know they do. And I know that it's the people in SL that affect it also. But doesn't RL affect the people that play SL? I'd say, it does, and that you have to take RL into account also. ![]() Of course external RL factors affect SL, but that only gets reflected in the value of the L$ in terms of how it is affecting us, the citizenry of SL. If external economic factors caused a considerable drop in disposable RL income, it would certainly affect the value of the L$. But its still who wants L$ and who wants to convert L$ into US$, which is us as a collective whole, that decides the value of the L$. But you're right... external factors do have an impact on our economic decisions in SL. - Ace _____________________
"Free your mind, and your ass will follow" - George Clinton
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blaze Spinnaker
1/2 Serious
Join date: 12 Aug 2004
Posts: 5,898
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11-04-2004 02:52
I think LL might be half guessing that they feel land selling is not a viable business in SL and don't really care what happens to land sellers.
They might be right, but they should make this more clear. _____________________
Taken from The last paragraph on pg. 16 of Cory Ondrejka's paper "Changing Realities: User Creation, Communication, and Innovation in Digital Worlds :
"User-created content takes the idea of leveraging player opinions a step further by allowing them to effectively prototype new ideas and features. Developers can then measure which new concepts most improve the products and incorporate them into the game in future patches." |
Anshe Chung
Business Girl
Join date: 22 Mar 2004
Posts: 1,615
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11-04-2004 03:23
We haven't even begun to get beyond that bubble. If and when IGE decides to unload the L$11M that they're sitting on, and which they're going to have difficulty selling on their website at their current prices, then we'll see that bubble burst. I'm afraid that we haven't seen the worst of that yet. IGE started doing exactly that. They greatly lowered prices, only sporadicly buy and their L$ holdings slowly started to decrease. But if there would be no other problems, then IGE could just sell for slightly below the rate of L$ before they started buying, which was about 1.25$. Instead you see L$ at around 1$ now. Philip Linden made it clear a couple of Town Halls ago that their plan is to bring new land out at a rate equal to the rate of growth in the subscriber base. To me, that sounds like a perfect plan for long-term land price stability. - Ace It sounds like perfect plan and many people believed it. However this is not what happened. If current rate of land added on auction equals real growth of active population in Second Life then I am Miss Piggy of The Muppet Show. We would not have seen drastic drop of land price like this. I remember when Philip also announced they would add more land to "slightly bring down land prices to normal levels". Since then we have seen land price drop by 70% and more, from an all time high to an all time low in history of Second Life. _____________________
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Siggy Romulus
DILLIGAF
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11-04-2004 03:37
tee hee hee hee hee hee hee
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Ace Cassidy
Resident Bohemian
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11-04-2004 04:03
I remember when Philip also announced they would add more land to "slightly bring down land prices to normal levels". Since then we have seen land price drop by 70% and more, from an all time high to an all time low in history of Second Life. I think this is a bit overstated, Anshe. When I first came into SL last spring, PG land was priced around L$2-5/m2, and M land was L$5-8/m2. After doing a quick scan of the Land Sales tab in the Find window, that looks to me to be about what land is going for today. Prices haven't hit all-time lows. They've just come back to where they were before the shortage caused such a run-up in prices over the summer. - Ace _____________________
"Free your mind, and your ass will follow" - George Clinton
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Anshe Chung
Business Girl
Join date: 22 Mar 2004
Posts: 1,615
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11-04-2004 04:24
I think this is a bit overstated, Anshe. When I first came into SL last spring, PG land was priced around L$2-5/m2, and M land was L$5-8/m2. After doing a quick scan of the Land Sales tab in the Find window, that looks to me to be about what land is going for today. Prices haven't hit all-time lows. They've just come back to where they were before the shortage caused such a run-up in prices over the summer. - Ace I joined in March, which was spring. At that time cheapest PG was definitely not priced $2-$5. Most was around 7 L$ with occasional "bargains" at 5 L$ or so. L$ at that time was at about 1.10 US$ per 250 L$, slightly above now. For my 512 sqm newbie land I was offered 5000 L$ in March. As to when Philip made the statement you quote, which was when prices were high, we saw since prices at auctions drop from 12-15 L$ mature and 5-9 L$ PG down to about 4-5 L$ mature and 2-3 L$ PG while at same time L$ itself drop from 1.45 US$ to about 1 US$. I am refering to normal land, not telehub area. I know those number very well since during past 4 months I have watched every single auction and was able to reduce my own max bid accordingly while still obtain enough land. I had max bids 3 times as high as now and at that time won even less auctions than with my very low max bids now. So, no, we are definitely not back to some point in the past, especially not last spring, but current market is way below that level now. _____________________
ANSHECHUNG.COM: Buy land - Sell land - Rent land - Sell sim - Rent store - Earn L$ - Buy L$ - Sell L$
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blaze Spinnaker
1/2 Serious
Join date: 12 Aug 2004
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11-04-2004 04:37
Does anyone have a history of the secondlife.com/land page?
It would be interesting to look at some historical numbers. Also, you need to include telehub land.. It's not fair to cherry pick the land market to make your examples. If certain land goes in and out of vogue, that's the nature of any market. It's called creative destruction and is a very necessary force in market based economies. _____________________
Taken from The last paragraph on pg. 16 of Cory Ondrejka's paper "Changing Realities: User Creation, Communication, and Innovation in Digital Worlds :
"User-created content takes the idea of leveraging player opinions a step further by allowing them to effectively prototype new ideas and features. Developers can then measure which new concepts most improve the products and incorporate them into the game in future patches." |
Ace Cassidy
Resident Bohemian
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11-04-2004 05:18
I joined in March, which was spring. At that time cheapest PG was definitely not priced $2-$5. Most was around 7 L$ with occasional "bargains" at 5 L$ or so. L$ at that time was at about 1.10 US$ per 250 L$, slightly above now. For my 512 sqm newbie land I was offered 5000 L$ in March. A more definitive history would cetainly be helpful in settling this clash of memories, but I can offer some anecdotal evidence... I bought the land where the Iraqi War Memorial now stands in PG Ganymede for L$5/m2. I bought PG Atlas land for around L$2/m2, and later resold it for about the same. And I sold my 512 Land for the Landless plot in M Epimetheus for L$7/m2, and I was concerned at the time that I might be asking too much. This all happened in the April/May timeframe. - Ace _____________________
"Free your mind, and your ass will follow" - George Clinton
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Anshe Chung
Business Girl
Join date: 22 Mar 2004
Posts: 1,615
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11-04-2004 05:38
A more definitive history would cetainly be helpful in settling this clash of memories, but I can offer some anecdotal evidence... I bought the land where the Iraqi War Memorial now stands in PG Ganymede for L$5/m2. I bought PG Atlas land for around L$2/m2, and later resold it for about the same. And I sold my 512 Land for the Landless plot in M Epimetheus for L$7/m2, and I was concerned at the time that I might be asking too much. This all happened in the April/May timeframe. - Ace Well, those three sims are pretty much at low end of their markets (PG/M). And at least in Atlas both your buying and selling price was definitely below normal market value at that time. I watched land finder where most land is listed, even before I started land trading. While anecdotal might all be nice, we would indeed need a statistic here. In any case, question is what is good for growth of SL and trust of people in its future. SL economy needs some positive trend again to show people opportunities. Current trend is one very clear downwards trend to domination of the land tier fees. @blaze Telehub land price dropped as much if not more than other area. It is just a smaller segment of market, so not so easy to make meaningful statistic. _____________________
ANSHECHUNG.COM: Buy land - Sell land - Rent land - Sell sim - Rent store - Earn L$ - Buy L$ - Sell L$
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Ace Cassidy
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11-04-2004 06:41
SL economy needs some positive trend again to show people opportunities. Current trend is one very clear downwards trend to domination of the land tier fees. The cost of land, and the value of the L$ are both reflective of the supply/demand fores at work. Despite your Miss Piggy comment, the Lindens control the supply in both of these, and have publicly stated that they want this supply to mirror the growth rate in the subscriber base. I have no reason to disbelieve them on this. Downward trends in both of the cost of land and the value of the L$ is not signalling doom and gloom. Its just a natural cycle. Both were artificially inflated (land by the shortage that was corrected over the summer, and L$ by the over-speculation done by IGE), and now they're coming back down. Downward trends will cause some people pain, just like upward trends caused others pain. But in both the case of land values and the case of the value of the L$, its just natural market forces at work. I'm not ready to toss in the towel just yet. - Ace _____________________
"Free your mind, and your ass will follow" - George Clinton
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Mina Firefly
Tattooist
![]() Join date: 11 Aug 2004
Posts: 341
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11-04-2004 07:04
It's always been like that....
Every game that has transferable money in it , has always virtual money for real money for sale on auction sites. And of course that brings along a few economic crisisses. It's not like your whole life is depending on it. So just go with the flow and relax and enjoy the game. |
Anshe Chung
Business Girl
Join date: 22 Mar 2004
Posts: 1,615
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11-04-2004 07:04
You are not telling me anything new, Ace. This is why you haven't found any comments from me about falling land price for long time. Because I considered it natural that after big boom you see price come down.
However, we are at one point now where we don't see prices coming down to some previous level but simply a complete devalution that hurt SL economy as a whole. Prices are at historical low and there is no bottom in sight. At same time, the volume of land transactions in world has fallen dramatically despite falling prices but the volume of land Linden kept pushing on auctions remained constant. It is also not simply business of realtor that is effected. Actually as realtor, low land price also means I can restock at less cost. There is a lot more to this and that effect almost every major enterprise in SL and a lot of the content people enjoy. I for example have 5 sims worth of land that is not for sale but that is developed land such as malls and community sims. There is content and monthly tier fees in US$. With devaluation of land and L$ I see those places fall from profitable to unprofitable putting me under pressure to either raise rent there or close some down. I simply refuse to believe that what Linden is doing is the same they announced. Whatever formula they use is obviously flawed as it in no way generate supply that realistically reflect actual demand. I also in no way see how it help SL grow since tier cost remain constant and, in terms of L$, have actually risen drastically. _____________________
ANSHECHUNG.COM: Buy land - Sell land - Rent land - Sell sim - Rent store - Earn L$ - Buy L$ - Sell L$
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Jauani Wu
pancake rabbit
![]() Join date: 7 Apr 2003
Posts: 3,835
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11-04-2004 07:07
Downward trends will cause some people pain, just like upward trends caused others pain. But in both the case of land values and the case of the value of the L$, its just natural market forces at work. I'm not ready to toss in the towel just yet. i'm with you ace! the sl economy is going to have ups and downs just like any economy. those who can understand the market forces will come out ahead, those that don't will not. those that are playing for fun will have fun regardless. i think as the SL community gets larger and the L$ float and land market grow in proportion, the market will become even more stable. my intuituion is that a large free market is much better at absorbing small anamolies. _____________________
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read my blog Mecha Jauani Wu hero of justice __________________________________________________ "Oh Jauani, you're terrible." - khamon fate |
blaze Spinnaker
1/2 Serious
Join date: 12 Aug 2004
Posts: 5,898
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11-04-2004 07:14
Well, hopefully Philip will post a refresh of the economic stats and then we can debate this subject like intelligent adults instead of anecdotal yokels.
![]() _____________________
Taken from The last paragraph on pg. 16 of Cory Ondrejka's paper "Changing Realities: User Creation, Communication, and Innovation in Digital Worlds :
"User-created content takes the idea of leveraging player opinions a step further by allowing them to effectively prototype new ideas and features. Developers can then measure which new concepts most improve the products and incorporate them into the game in future patches." |
Ace Cassidy
Resident Bohemian
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11-04-2004 07:32
Anshe,
In addition to some content that I sell in-world (drums, joints, telescopes, et al), I make most of my "SL living" by trading L$ on GOM. Its not dis-similar to what you do with land, and if you look back at my forum history, you won't ever see me bashing the practice. In fact, when the forums were screaming bloody murder about high land prices, I was always a strong defender of a free market. If someone was willing to spend L$20/m2 for land, then that was what it was worth, no matter how much people cried about it. I think more buyers and sellers in ANY market make for better and more competitive markets, so I actually view those that buy and sell land as a good thing for the land market, just like me and the people I compete with over on GOM are good for the currency market. So long as there is no collusion (and I've never seen any indication of collusion in EITHER market), more buyers and sellers add to the liquidity and competitiveness of these markets. Just like you live on the margin between the price you buy and the price you sell, I live on margin too. So long as I can sell my L$ for more than I bought them (or vice versa), I'm a happy camper. So you're correct when you say that the lower market can also be good for you, since it reduces your costs. It doesn't matter what the price is. Its all about the difference between where you buy and where you sell that matters. I guess where we differ, is that you seem to be quite concerned by the recent decline, and I'm just kind of shrugging it off as no big deal. There were 2 big factors that we've discussed and agreed upon (land shortages and IGE buying L$), and I just view it as these 2 markets doing what they naturally do, and that is sort things out. The economy is fine. So long as subscriber growth continues (and I'll leave that to the Lindens to take care of), the economy can only get better. More SL citizens equals a richer and more diverse landscape, and can only cause the value of the SL economy as a whole to increase. My US$0.02... - Ace _____________________
"Free your mind, and your ass will follow" - George Clinton
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Anshe Chung
Business Girl
Join date: 22 Mar 2004
Posts: 1,615
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11-04-2004 07:49
i'm with you ace! the sl economy is going to have ups and downs just like any economy. those who can understand the market forces will come out ahead, those that don't will not. those that are playing for fun will have fun regardless. i think as the SL community gets larger and the L$ float and land market grow in proportion, the market will become even more stable. my intuituion is that a large free market is much better at absorbing small anamolies. The freedom of the market ends where Linden Lab control the supply of land and L$. And I strongly doubt that L$ float and land market really grow in proportion with active player base. If this would be the case, we would have stable value of L$ and land now and not steady devalution since months. Freedom or market also ends with monthly tier fees continuously rising in terms of L$. _____________________
ANSHECHUNG.COM: Buy land - Sell land - Rent land - Sell sim - Rent store - Earn L$ - Buy L$ - Sell L$
SLEXCHANGE.COM: Come join us on Second Life's most popular website for shopping addicts. Click, buy and smile ![]() |
Ace Cassidy
Resident Bohemian
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11-04-2004 07:55
The freedom of the market ends where Linden Lab control the supply of land and L$. And I strongly doubt that L$ float and land market really grow in proportion with active player base. If this would be the case, we would have stable value of L$ and land now and not steady devalution since months. Freedom or market also ends with monthly tier fees continuously rising in terms of L$. I'm inclined to take Philip Linden at his word, and am highly skeptical of any Linden conspiracy theories. What would be their motivation? - Ace _____________________
"Free your mind, and your ass will follow" - George Clinton
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Maxx Monde
Registered User
Join date: 14 Nov 2003
Posts: 1,848
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11-04-2004 08:01
The lower limit may be $3.60 - which is the low (0.90 pre block-adjustment) of a while ago. Unless someone steps in to slam it all the way down, you know, out of frustration of certain business activities.
Time will tell, eh? |
Anshe Chung
Business Girl
Join date: 22 Mar 2004
Posts: 1,615
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11-04-2004 08:04
Anshe, In addition to some content that I sell in-world (drums, joints, telescopes, et al), I make most of my "SL living" by trading L$ on GOM. Its not dis-similar to what you do with land, and if you look back at my forum history, you won't ever see me bashing the practice. In fact, when the forums were screaming bloody murder about high land prices, I was always a strong defender of a free market. If someone was willing to spend L$20/m2 for land, then that was what it was worth, no matter how much people cried about it. I think more buyers and sellers in ANY market make for better and more competitive markets, so I actually view those that buy and sell land as a good thing for the land market, just like me and the people I compete with over on GOM are good for the currency market. So long as there is no collusion (and I've never seen any indication of collusion in EITHER market), more buyers and sellers add to the liquidity and competitiveness of these markets. Just like you live on the margin between the price you buy and the price you sell, I live on margin too. So long as I can sell my L$ for more than I bought them (or vice versa), I'm a happy camper. So you're correct when you say that the lower market can also be good for you, since it reduces your costs. It doesn't matter what the price is. Its all about the difference between where you buy and where you sell that matters. I guess where we differ, is that you seem to be quite concerned by the recent decline, and I'm just kind of shrugging it off as no big deal. There were 2 big factors that we've discussed and agreed upon (land shortages and IGE buying L$), and I just view it as these 2 markets doing what they naturally do, and that is sort things out. The economy is fine. So long as subscriber growth continues (and I'll leave that to the Lindens to take care of), the economy can only get better. More SL citizens equals a richer and more diverse landscape, and can only cause the value of the SL economy as a whole to increase. My US$0.02... - Ace I don't disagree on most of this. But there is one big IF. Does subscriber growth really continue? Or does it slow down? How many people are leaving or becoming less active? I am also not mainly arguing here from the speculator or reseller perspective. As I post above, I worry more about the profitability/viability of the land/content the many land owners in Second Life have to pay land tier fees for. When you buy and sell at GOM you do so with a very short horizon. You don't keep huge stock, you don't spend weeks or months to develop content, to rent out things to people. You don't have regular fees you must pay. You are speculator in that case, not really running a business. This means a long term trend does not really affect you. We all hoped that low land price and cheap L$ would help SL grow by attract more subscriber and make people spend money on more things. If you go back to old posting from August I actually supported increase of land supply and critisized when Lindens suddenly took off 10 snow sims from market for special projects that mostly did not happen (Neualtenburg seems exception). I did not like artificially limited supply and high auction prices as little as I like the unhealthy situation now with L$ and land value drop and tier fee becoming more and more dominant. We need healthy and stable situation and not a neverending drop of value. Otherwise whenever somebody invests he/she just loose value by default. And if the goal of Linden Lab is really stable market, then their formulas for L$ and land supply must have some bugs. _____________________
ANSHECHUNG.COM: Buy land - Sell land - Rent land - Sell sim - Rent store - Earn L$ - Buy L$ - Sell L$
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