From: Gilster Hax
Like sheep to slaughter you lead us as if we do not know where you are taking us. Eventually only Linden Labs will be allowed to receive payment for land. This is an eventuality and this is how we are suckered in, by investing our time and money to create the content of this virtual world. We then have no vote, no say. We just allow the "MAN" to bully us over. Well Jack...this time you may see an impact on the sl economy that will burst all your plans to basically take our rl money from us like a school yard bully.
The case for a plodding and methodical destruction of the competing business of landowners has been made repeatedly ever since LL dropped the price of these OSR's and announced that they would be pumping them out en masse.
The best way to determine a companies motives is to examine their behavior and make note of what that behavior actually accomplishes, if you can ignore the rhetoric.
People like to call this a conspiracy theory. I would say that you would have to assume an awful lot of accidental providence and a fair amount of downright stupidity on the part of LL in order to ignore the possibility that LL knew what they were doing all along.
Keep in mind that long before any of the sweeping changes that have led to this debauchle, the writing was on the wall for the real-estate market in SL. the release of the viewer code and the reverse engineering of the server code virtually ensured, with LL's active participation, that other grids will eventually open up, introducing competition and vastly reducing the value of virtual land. Arguably it's value should be pinned to the cost of resources in current hosting solutions with a similar profit margin - perhaps $100/mo for a full prim region. maybe $40/mo for an OSR.
With that as the backdrop and LL's active participation in the opening of that market it would be silly to think they have a long-term strategy for renting private islands versus "value added" mainland (if you could call it value-added, but i dirgress). SO we can assume that they see private islands, and their owners, as a temporary cash-cow that will last as long as they have a monopoly on a virtual economy.
So what to do with a cash-cow? Why you milk it, of course!
The idea that LL was somehow unaware of the use of OSR's as residential, and even commercial, sims would suggest that they did not notice the many 100's of them that were already being sold as residential well before they made the decision to make them even more attractive. It was, after all, their land store that was advertizing "Low prim Private island paradise with 1875 prims and 64k sqm!" by the many dozens at any given time. And remember, they were delivering these OSR's manually at the time, with names that clearly suggest their usage, and to locations which are clearly not "forest or water". Then you have to keep in mind that concierge has been providing support for these islands since they were first introduced. Providing rollbacks to restore a residents lost poseballs, etc. To suggest they didnt see it happening is rediculous.
So lets assume the obvious, they knew full well how they were being used.
When they saw it happening they had 2 choices really, smack down the abusers and enforce their guidelines, or jump on the gravy train and ride it.
Doubling the prim count, freeing them from estate boundaries, allowing landowners to buy them one at a time and drop them in isolated locations on the grid, I think these decisions illustrate fairly well which way they decided to go. The changes were designed to accomplish one thing, there is in fact only one reason to make these changes in tandem, to make the OSR's more atttractive for residential use, increasing demand for them.
Having done that they were suddenly inundated with manual orders for them for many weeks. For awhile the demand was so large it took 21 days to deliver them. They sold and delivered hundreds per day, and this was at the original high price of $415 for setup, for many weeks, until the demand finally dropped off.
Meanwhile they were already working on the new land store which would automate the delivery of OSR's. Is it reasonable under any stretch of the imagination to think that they did not already have a plan to lower the price and create a new demand as soon as the store was ready? This is where the bait and switch argument comes in.
Having exhausted demand at the higher price they made the announcement to lower the setup fees for both the full prim sims and the OSR's, inviting 1000s of residents jump into an already overcrowded land market and become "landbarons" in their own right. Its was easy, and now it was cheap, many people were salivating at the thought, others were complaining that they couldnt afford the full prim sims required, and they wanted their own OSR too. Others were decrying the abrupt devaluation of current holdings, myself included. A few of us were predicting the end of the real-estate market and beginning to realize that LL was acting with malice aforethought. It wasnt a popular theory at the time.
Notably, LL was completely silent after the initial announcement, pretending not to see these issues being raised at all. They started the announcement with the disclaimer of light-use and let the feeding frenzy build without a single comment... No responses like, dont buy these if you want to live on them to all the salivating posts, just silence.
My point about their silence? It was out of character for a company so concerned with improving the experience for their residents to ignore so many questions which should have raised concerns about what the users expectations were. Just as it is now for them to remain silent in the face of the reaction to their price hike for so long. I believe they did not want to contradict their use guidelines and make themselves culpable, but also did not want to do anything to qwell the demand. But thats pure conjecture, I admit.
They ignored the warnings of many of us about performance and the effect on the economy. They ignored the questions which directly demonstrated that most of the demand was for residential use. My personal pet peeve at the time was that they continued to sell the full prim islands at the high price of $1675 on the land store, with no notice being given of the pending price change, all the while discussing and price drop and postponing it until the new land store was ready.
This was also around the time they started the trend toward posting blogs with comments turned off and moved the grid status announcements to their own page, some of our comments were very off color, and increasingly off topic as they would not raise a proper forum to discuss private island issues. I accused them of practicing a bait and switch land scam and setting an example for those who would game the system (landbots etc).
So the new land store was finally released to great effect. OSR On Demand was a resounding success. The land glut was a perfectly acceptable tradeoff for low mainland parcel sales as long as the orders were rolling in by the 100s per day.
Meanwhile LL had turned its focus to the mainland cleanup project, rolling out new regions, outlawing advertizing parcels, creating new roads, adding "value added communities" like Bay city and Nautilus... why all the sudden reverse their long standing practice of ignoring all this? Well, we have already established that the Private Island market will only be temporary, so in order to consilidate their user base they are going to have to entice them back to mainland so that they wont jump to other grids when the doors swing wide. And if you are the suspicious sort, perhaps they had an inkling that eventually they were going to have to do something about the land glut they had engineered, but not until it had played itself out.
As will happen when you sell something with no controls on quantity the supply quickly outstrips the demand, suddenly no one could find a tenant for anything. There were nearly as many islands as concurrent users, and the land market was essentially crashed. Of course, this means that instead of buying OSRs through the land store people started selling them at loss in the forums. Sales had dried up, and with it, LLs unsustainable growth spurt.
But LL is all about growth - so how can they possibly re-invigorate the market when they cant add users and cant sell land?
Welcome to the new solution. Raise the price of OSR's beyond the ability of anyone but the worst abusers of them to afford to keep them. Everyone else will be forced to either abandon their OSRs or spend more fees converting them back to full prim regions. The tenants suddenly made homeless by the dumping of OSRs will decide that perhaps its best, after all, to head back to the mainland, since its been cleaned up an bit. The reduction in OSRs will open up computer resources for more mainland to meet that demand, and reduce the load on the infrastructure casued by haivng a region for every 2 avatars online at any given time.
All's well that ends well - With one drastic shock to the system they have solved all their problems; infrastrucure load is reduced, Land supply shrinks, Revenues grow. All they had to do was decimate a few thousand landowners, and if you think they didnt see it coming, even allow for the probability that it was an evolving plan, then maybe you deserve what you get. But no one deserves to be treated like a mark just because they are foolish enough to believe the rhetoric.
As I said at the outset the best way to gauge a companies motives is to examine the effects of what they do. This is not about the users, Its not about abuse, Its about growth and customer retention. These would be laudible motives if they weren't fleecing the residents to fund it, changing their pricing every few months before anyone can recover from the last change. Raking in the fees and teris. LL has taken its operating philosphy from the likes of enron, bush & countrywide.
As I've said before... They are done with us (Private Island Landowners), they have nearly picked our pockets clean. Now they just need our tenants to get the hint and move to mainland so they can push us off the cliff. The only question left is... where to build the cliff? No worries, they will have a nice new continent for it just as soon as the homeless masses are hungry for mainland again
