All Out by 2009?
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Kaimi Kyomoon
Kah-EE-mee
Join date: 30 Nov 2006
Posts: 5,664
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03-13-2008 11:59
From: Desmond Shang
Pie, I'll risk violating the 'gambling' restriction and place a $L 1 gentleman's bet with you.
"I bet that at the end of 2009, Second Life won't have a direct competitor with an equal online concurrency." - Desmond Shang, 13 Mar 2007.
I'm not a gambler but if I were I'd put my money on you Desmond. Everything you've said in this thread has impressed me as being well stated, informed, analysis. From: Rebecca Proudhon
On the other hand the ideal of making SL a positive tool to improve the human communication that could help the "Human Condition," is a great ideal, but SL itself, is not going to be a tool to help improve anything if it's allowed to be a Bordertown melting pot of scammers. Putting the cart in front of the horse doesn't work. Allowing cats and mice in the same room tends to lead to bloodshed The exact analogy I've been thinking myself! SL is like the Wild West before the law abiding citizens were able to get the desperadoes under control. I'm hoping the idea is that it can develop into something better. I'm doubtful that it can be forced very quickly. From: Colette Meiji Well a full scale, direct competitor isn't going to come out of nowhere.
So its pretty obvious there wont be one by the end of 2009.
That doesn't mean SL isn't in a situation where it isn't ripe for a competitor to come and steal huge amounts of its active user base.
In fact companies that have been musing the idea over might feel encouraged by this very report done by a such a "respected" company. I'd seriously consider jumping to a new place if it had better looking avatars and/or I could edit individual vertices.
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Kaimi's Normal Wear From: 3Ring Binder i think people are afraid of me or something.
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Desmond Shang
Guvnah of Caledon
Join date: 14 Mar 2005
Posts: 5,250
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03-13-2008 12:32
From: Pie Psaltery Deal  Never let it be said I couldn't be a gentleman (no snickering Colette) You rock, Pie! Kaimi, I've been wrong before - in big ways. I was a California tech exec in the late 1990's - that's enough to give anyone some cause for introspection. If it comes down to it the truth will probably be stranger than anything we can make up. Who expected Yahoo, once a fun little grey page of 'cool links' - I remember using it - would someday be subject to a hostile takeover by a Microsoft, offering billions? I could just see a Wayne's World style "got five-thousand dol-lars! got five-thousand dol-lars!" dance done by the Yahoo creators, if Microsoft bothered to buy 'em out in 1995... Who knows! Maybe Xcite or Cocoa's Cottages or Mystitool will be the next Yahoo to the online generation of the moar!-ing 20's! Stranger things have happened.
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Kaimi Kyomoon
Kah-EE-mee
Join date: 30 Nov 2006
Posts: 5,664
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03-13-2008 12:42
From: Desmond Shang
If it comes down to it the truth will probably be stranger than anything we can make up.
There you go again! I agree with this too.
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Kaimi's Normal Wear From: 3Ring Binder i think people are afraid of me or something.
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Qie Niangao
Coin-operated
Join date: 24 May 2006
Posts: 7,138
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03-13-2008 15:58
From: Rebecca Proudhon After enough people get burned and if people at large, look at it as scam-central then who will take it seriously except those looking for a free-for-all.
If SL ends up with the same rep as "Nigerian Email" Scams, crooked Multi-level marketing, ponzi schemes, or has the rep of allowing illegal behaviors to occur, then the media will oblige the seeming, SL deathwish and help them die quickly. Right, I do agree that LL has to protect SL's reputation. But really, over the past year, LL has made tremendous steps in that direction: gambling ban, banking ban, adfarm ban. And, however ill-conceived, even the IDV travesty was/is intended to address the "den of iniquity" image threat. The remaining problems are way more difficult: IP theft, and the integrity of resident-to-resident transactions (e.g., the semantics of Estate land "sales"  . But you know, I know for a certain fact that LL is *very* concerned about the IP theft problem. It's just a very hard problem to handle without unintentional "chilling effects" consequences. (The whole reason I ever even heard about SL, some two years ago, was because of a podcast about IP in virtual worlds.) And the recent announcement of escrowed L$-denominated private sim transfers is perhaps a step toward managing the threat of resident-to-resident scams. So it's not that SL's image isn't a serious problem, but to be objective about LL's actions over the past year, they've taken real, dramatic steps to address it. (On the side topic of open sourcing: I don't know for sure that community inspection will prevent all security exploits. But I do know that I'm nervous about transactions riding proprietary protocols to code known only to LL employees. I'd be pretty reluctant to let my bank push a closed, non-SSL encryption algorithm to my desktop for account access; right now, we're painfully close to that with SL's sim/asset-server transactions.) |
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Rebecca Proudhon
(TM)
Join date: 3 May 2006
Posts: 1,686
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03-13-2008 15:59
I wont settle for less then a Holographic Virtual Reality
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Annabelle Babii
Unholier than thou
Join date: 2 Jun 2007
Posts: 1,797
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03-13-2008 16:01
I've created lovely 500 prim columns specifically designed to keep the sky up on your parcel. only $50000000l each!
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Rebecca Proudhon
(TM)
Join date: 3 May 2006
Posts: 1,686
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03-13-2008 16:08
NY TIME article 3/13/08
Video Road Hogs Stir Fear of Internet Traffic Jam
By STEVE LOHR
Caution: Heavy Internet traffic ahead. Delays possible.
For months there has been a rising chorus of alarm about the surging growth in the amount of data flying
across the Internet. The threat, according to some industry groups, analysts and researchers, stems mainly
from the increasing visual richness of online communications and entertainment — video clips and movies,
social networks and multiplayer games.
Moving images, far more than words or sounds, are hefty rivers of digital bits as they traverse the Internet’s
pipes and gateways, requiring, in industry parlance, more bandwidth. Last year, by one estimate, the video
site YouTube, owned by Google, consumed as much bandwidth as the entire Internet did in 2000.
In a widely cited report published last November, a research firm projected that user demand for the
Internet could outpace network capacity by 2011. The title of a debate scheduled next month at a technology
conference in Boston sums up the angst: “The End of the Internet?”
(Continued on link) |
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Lowen Raymaker
Registered User
Join date: 21 Apr 2007
Posts: 185
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03-13-2008 16:10
/327/76/236691/1.html#post1846100It looks like 9.9.09 is end game.
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Colette Meiji
Registered User
Join date: 25 Mar 2005
Posts: 15,556
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03-13-2008 16:14
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Avguste Aeon
Registered User
Join date: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 83
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03-13-2008 16:21
Hmm
Guys, only complaining is doing no good to anyone.Actions,even spoken ones,speak louder than complaints.
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Colette Meiji
Registered User
Join date: 25 Mar 2005
Posts: 15,556
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03-13-2008 16:55
Forum related activities -
Complain
Rant
Rave
Plug
Inform
Predict
Speculate
Dictate
Lie
Debate
Argue
Flame
Troll
Flirt
Joke
Thats bout all we've got.
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Rebecca Proudhon
(TM)
Join date: 3 May 2006
Posts: 1,686
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03-13-2008 17:35
"All must serve the one true King" |
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Cocoanut Koala
Coco's Cottages
Join date: 7 Feb 2005
Posts: 7,903
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03-13-2008 21:36
(Having read only the first few posts of this thread)
I ditto the sentiment that the real-world businesses can go elsewhere. That's just fine with me.
coco
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Stephen Wisent
Registered User
Join date: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 95
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03-13-2008 21:39
From: Cocoanut Koala (Having read only the first few posts of this thread)
I ditto the sentiment that the real-world businesses can go elsewhere. That's just fine with me.
coco That's all very well ..but who pays the bills going forward? We're not, and our little fantasy world isn't going to be subsidised forever by the "real-world businesses that can go elsewhere".. Especially if they take your advice and go elsewhere.. |
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Lowen Raymaker
Registered User
Join date: 21 Apr 2007
Posts: 185
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03-13-2008 21:53
From: Cocoanut Koala (Having read only the first few posts of this thread)
I ditto the sentiment that the real-world businesses can go elsewhere. That's just fine with me.
coco I guess you are going to pay for R&D? |
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Prime Price
Registered User
Join date: 20 Aug 2007
Posts: 26
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5 years head start DOES count...
03-13-2008 23:28
Yep it does!
Of course competition will try to catch up. Of course SL needs to improve its preformance. But what really started as a science project is a now a growing business with close to 5 years experience behind it. Many companies wish they had a 5y head start over their competitors. For that reason only, and as long as SL doesn't rest on its laurels, i believe things are looking bright for SL. As much as i respect Gartner, this is a totally new industry with little to refer to in terms of indicators. The 3 challenges raised are valid but not strategic issues related to the development of online worlds. These are tactical challenges. Standards and Interactivity between worlds for example should have made this list, as well as the ability to plug in business-oriented applets so companies can find relevance to think long term in online worlds.
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Lucifer Baphomet
Postmodern Demon
Join date: 8 Sep 2005
Posts: 1,771
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03-14-2008 00:00
Desmond Shang wins this thread. the Lindens can close it now... 
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Llanna Lane
will work for food
Join date: 28 Mar 2007
Posts: 28
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03-14-2008 01:01
i think gartner owns a mainland roadside parcel and hopes this way adfarmers go away.
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Kaimi Kyomoon
Kah-EE-mee
Join date: 30 Nov 2006
Posts: 5,664
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03-14-2008 01:03
From: Llanna Lane i think gartner owns a mainland roadside parcel and hopes this way adfarmers go away. Heh heh I wish them jolly good luck with THAT.
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Kaimi's Normal Wear From: 3Ring Binder i think people are afraid of me or something.
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Morwen Bunin
Everybody needs a hero!
Join date: 8 Dec 2005
Posts: 1,743
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03-14-2008 01:47
Ah well... Gartner... Don't know about other places, but over here we are not really impressed by what Gartner says... Morwen. |
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Tegg Bode
FrootLoop Roo Overlord
Join date: 12 Jan 2007
Posts: 5,707
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03-14-2008 02:17
From: Prime Price Yep it does!
Of course competition will try to catch up. Of course SL needs to improve its preformance. But what really started as a science project is a now a growing business with close to 5 years experience behind it. Many companies wish they had a 5y head start over their competitors. For that reason only, and as long as SL doesn't rest on its laurels, i believe things are looking bright for SL. As much as i respect Gartner, this is a totally new industry with little to refer to in terms of indicators. The 3 challenges raised are valid but not strategic issues related to the development of online worlds. These are tactical challenges. Standards and Interactivity between worlds for example should have made this list, as well as the ability to plug in business-oriented applets so companies can find relevance to think long term in online worlds. Hmm they catch up fast , have a look at open Grid and HiPi, they are near exact copies off the ground in under 12 months, still in beta but gaining quick, with a few extra new innovatiotions, real customer support and some undercutting on tier they could really have an impact when they take off.
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John Horner
Registered User
Join date: 27 Jun 2006
Posts: 626
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03-14-2008 04:10
From: Pie Psaltery Desmond, I don't feel picked on at all, but I also don't think you answered anything for me personally.
You compare SL to a basic computer. I'm saying it could turn out to be more like the Betamax player. Supierior... maybe. Anyone still use it? Anyone?
Mission statement:""It's our mission to connect us all to an online world that advances the human condition."
But ummm.... wouldn't you need to know how to provide good customer service before you tried to advance the human condition? Wouldn't you need to have the sensitivity to know how to communicate with your customers effectively (the recent "We're having a party you can't come to blog post springs to mind)? When 25% of all sessions result in crashing the client, how well are they connecting us?
Wouldn't it be slightly more difficult to get those few phone calls to the big boys begging for more millions answered if your investors were too busy backing other endevours that showed as much promise as yours did 3 years ago?
You call SL "The Main Grid" but does it have to stay the main grid? If Osgrid and Openlife grid and Deepgrid all eventaully connect together, why bother going thru the hassle connecting to SL grid? Economy? Can't I just steal a ton of content from SL and drag it with me for free to any of these grids? Why pay in an opensource world?
Then you remind us all that we (meaning premium, tier-fee paying residents) are the ones really supporting this whole thing. But is anybody who is paying for this platform really happy about that? And how many people from 2004 are still paying premium? From 2005? If you can't keep your resident supporters, how are you going to keep your corporate supporters? And why am I paying tier HERE when in Central Grid its significantly cheaper to 'own land'?
People don't value cheap. I offer you Walmart and the humble VW Bug in argument.
I respect you a great deal Des, and applaude the way you have used this platform to its fullest potential. But I think the people, like yourself, with so much invested in this platform are going to be the ones left out in the cold the most.
Change is coming. Adapt or die. I had a few minutes to spare yesterday Pie and I took a look at two of those sites you mentioned. One website has been removed, the other is so basic (box on screen) I think I could have done better. Granted the concept of my own Sim on my hard drive is a fair idea and I took the precaution of downloading both the Sim and a separate dedicated client app to run it. But I am sure Linden Labs could emulate such an idea together with a facility to migrate (on a one way trip) your personal inventory without alienating content creators given most software will only work in a Linden type environment. This reminds me of the day traders I see who try to outwit the CFD and Spread Bet Providers on the real life stock market using a few hundred pounds of margined capital, and nearly always fail. In short it takes millions of real US to both create and maintain a viable 3D platform that has mass take up. That may not be apparent in the beginning for the software geek in California who may rent some space on a server using open source software, but to quote another concept he may well be successful until the day he goes bankrupt Finally, let us look at two existing virtual worlds, which is Second Life and World of Warcraft. Both have had millions of dollars thrown at it and thousands of years of collective development in man-hours |
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Brenda Connolly
Un United Avatar
Join date: 10 Jan 2007
Posts: 25,000
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03-14-2008 04:13
From: Lowen Raymaker I guess you are going to pay for R&D? Let's do away with the Virtual Welfare State, make evry resident pay his way, even if it is only a few dollars a month. But I agree with Coco. If the price of keeping SL is that it becomes the same mass marketed corporate cesspool that RL is, you can keep it.
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Cristos Benelli
Nuova Sicilia
Join date: 2 Mar 2007
Posts: 49
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03-14-2008 05:09
Focussing on end-users is ultimately the best way to attract corporations, who will go where the "eyeballs" are - Gartner or no Gartner. So it brings the issue-base back to improving the user experience, simplifying access for new entrants, platform stability, etc.
The Gartner report seems more targeted towards corporations who would enter SL on a closed-door approach - for its own employees, to improve internal communications, reduce travel and comms cost, to experiment, etc. Their evaluation parameters are around converting their IT infrastructure to support SL. From this perspective, their points are valid. But the moment you add "interact with consumers" to a company's virtual world objectives, then "eyeballs" become the number one parameter. Eyeball-wise, SL today has an enviable position, which it can protect by continuing to invest...in residents.
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Pie Psaltery
runs w/scissors
Join date: 13 Jan 2004
Posts: 987
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03-14-2008 05:21
From: John Horner That may not be apparent in the beginning for the software geek in California who may rent some space on a server using open source software, but to quote another concept he may well be successful until the day he goes bankrupt When I joined this platform in 2004 the list of things you couldn't do, such as create animations or even hug someone without a LOT of effort, was incredibly long. Your quote, John, reminds me most of Philip Rosedale. |