Why SL cannot succeed - a personal opinion.

Many, many online games have been unstable at the start.

Anarchy Online, when it started, was renowned for being flaky and unreliable - but it still built up into one of the most popular online games.

Now, though I know SL can't be judged like a game, and although you're right that stability is an SL problem that needs to be dealt with, people are "used" to computers as a whole being unstable and they will ignore it if the experience is entertaining enough.

On the other hand... it cuts both ways.... because if SL looks too good, people will feel they can't contribute anything and a large section of its appeal will be gone.

Balderdash. WoW is doing very well without significant visual improvements. This, as a wannabe business platforms needs visual improvements a lot less than WoW.

Sure it's possible that some people would take one look, dislike the look of the place, log out, and never come back, but I doubt that it happens or, if it does, it's very uncommon.

We won't agree on it, Jopsy. You think that the look of the place is more important than stability when it comes to people staying or not, and I think the opposite. I'll ask everyone a question...

Has it ever crossed your mind to quit SL because of something to do with SL itself (not for personal reasons)? If you have, was the reason because it doesn't look as good as it could, or was it because of the instabilities?

I can answer for myself. Very recently it crossed my mind to knock it on the head because SL was being really bad for a couple of weeks, and damned frustrating way too often. I didn't because of the business, but if it hadn't been for that, I may have gone - at least for a lengthy break form it.

You know, we can argue about this until our keyboards are broken and we are collectively out of Advil but it will not change the simple fact that LL is going to do what they think is best for SL – regardless of what any of us think. While it is tempting to think that we can predict the future and change Philip’s mind with pitchforks and torches, the fact is that WindLight is coming. Havok4 is coming. Mono is coming. A year from now SL will be a very different place. Maybe a competitor will blow them out of the water between now and then, maybe not.

Didn't someone earlier on this thread mention an 80% drop out rate on orientation island? Teleport works far more than 80% of the time, so I wouldn't blame that for the drop out rate.



Instabilities are random and intermittant. Ugly is inescapable.

Ciaran- All MMO's must evolve, yes even WoW.

The difference is, can get away with merely 'adding content' (new races, new areas) and call it "evolution", because both give their customers something new to explore. Keep in mind that "WoW" is not the first "Warcraft" product that Blizzard offered. It looks nothing at all like it did in it's first incarnation.

SL is way different, we add new content all the time, but that's not 'evolution' that's merely 'growth'. For LL to re-invigorate oldbies and to woo newbies, they need to move the possibility of this world forward, which includes appearance, features AND performance/stability.

Sony copped out, rather than evolve EQ in place, they offered a whole new world called EQ2 for those that wanted more. Can you imagine what would happen here if Linden Lab tried that? It would bankrupt so many loyal long-term residents they'd never trust LL again.

LL's stuck, they must upgrade the world we have, and keep it unified.

I totally disagree. There is a reason why camera phones never took off. It's not only because it is uncomfortable to need to get your hair and make up done just for a phone call. There is another reason. While hearing the voice adds enormous value to a telemeeting, seeing the person's mouth talk on a tiny screen, while sitting at their desk, doesn't add any valuable information. We usually know what the other person looks like, and if not, a static photo is enough. What all current options for teleconferencing are lacking is the information about social relations and roles. These are represented by the seating configuration for example: The event host sits on the side, invited guests walk up to take the microphone to do a speech, the audience sits on rows of chairs. This information can only be transmitted by using graphical representations of agents, avatars. We are used to avatars from childhood, when we played board games where each player is represented by a colorful figure. Realistic looks of the avatars is not important, but their uniqueness is.

Webcams are really a useless gimick IMHO, while virtual worlds make real teleconferencing possible for the first time.

SL will only survive if LL keeps adding "enhancemts" every other day or so. We need improved voice and more clouds in the sky.

I'd like to point out that SL doesn't have to close for 8 hours a week anymore either What crippling effects are you talking about? So far I haven't had my whole machine freeze up because I was running SL, On my dual boot (linux/MS) machine I run win2K (it's what I had around when installing), I have lost more hours of data because of MS bugs than I have SL. As for the amount of money you're paying out....why? Premium account? Why bother? I've got a free account, and make enough money in world to pay tier. If you own a whole sim, I can see that being more of an issue, but then, if a business can't cover it's overhead, it sounds more like bad business decisions than anything else.

"There are plenty of Windows updates, and Windows always has flaws, but it's been a stable operating system for long long time. It could never be compared to SL.

Take TPing as an example of instability. I joined in Dec 2006, and I've never known a time when TPing was reliable. Sometimes it's worse than at other times, and right now it's pretty bad. Why? Why after all this time is TPing so unreliable? It's not because it can't be fixed. It's because the people at LL haven't had the will to fix it. Which is more likely to cause people to leave SL - TP failures half the time, including plenty of crashes whilst TPing, or not having a more attractive environment? My money is on instability."
-Phil Deakins

Phil, I suppose that would depend on your definition of stability. I joined about the same time you did in '06, The teleport issue has been WAY more reliable than not for me. I think 1 out of every 100 times I tp somewhere I have to try it twice. There have only been a couple of days that I remember tps being down for extended periods of time. So, I think it not so much an issue. maybe I'm just lucky, (shrugs)

I have had people pick up and leave because they thought the problems with their inventory was because of the land. It's not the land! It's the asset server. But how do you make that clear to someone who's lost thousands of L in objects or many hours of work putting something together? That threatens my business and it's not my fault or a bad business decision. It's not a frequent occurrence, thank God, but if it happens once, it's one time too many. It's already happened once to me, and may happen again in the next few days for me. That's unacceptable.

How on earth have you lost hours of data due to MS bugs? Are you reformatting all the time? Inventory loss on SL has got to be way more of an issue than data loss with Windows. I've never had my whole machine freeze up because of SL either, that's because Windows is running correctly

Crippling effects such as not being able to login, warnings to be careful when rezzing no copy objects, 503 errors rendering search all useless, not being able to TP, not being able to upload textures yadda yadda yadda. If these were one off issues then it would be fine, things don't always work, updates in a world like this are going to be problematic because of the sheer amount of variables and I am more than willing to accept that things can go pear shaped, but check the blog and see how often it happens.

I was merely pointing out that people pay more here than they do for a copy of Windows. If you're trying to say that tier is effectively free because business recoups those costs then you have to include the cost of Windows in the equation too.

I've no idea if somebody did or not, but I wouldn't take any unverified guesses as real data. And I used teleport merely as an example. It's only one of the instabilities. I wouldn't estimate 80+% successful TPs over time though, but even if that's accurate, 1 out of 5 TPs failing/crashing, is a very long way from being a reliable TP system, and we all know that we have times when only 1 or 2 out of 5 TPs succeed. And don't forget that TPs are just one of a host of faults that we put up with. Any content creator knows the times when SL is near impossible to work with, without the patience of Job.

You're just lucky, Jacquelin

I used TPs as an example because some other things, such as frequent crashing, are a lot to do with the user's system, and there are many system combinations, so it's much harder to fix those things. But TPing is serverside, and is wholly fixable if LL has the will to do it, but they don't have the will to fix it. Inventory loss is another thing that is wholly fixable if they had the will to do it, and there are many more instabilities like that. TPing is maybe the best example, because it's failure can make SL virtually unusable.

I know that they've spent time on TPs and inventory loss, but they haven't had the will to fix them. All they've done is get things working again - more or less. They simply don't have the mentality to create a stable platform that could be used for business in the same way that the web is used, and because of that, it's my opinion that they cannot succeed. That's assuming that they actually want to succeed in that way. Perhaps they've no desire for that. I remember reading that they don't envisage gojng to a 2.0 version, and that it will always be 1.xxx. Maybe that's an indication of their lack of desire to create what I see as the future for this type of system.

But if they don't want to create the future as you see it, then failing on your terms may well be success on theirs.

SL is a success in terms of what I want from it - which is a source of entertainment. I've had more fun here than from any other form of electronic entertainment, and while I'd like it to be more stable, I can live with 10-20% of TPs failing, problems rezzing objects, and crashing 2-3 times per week - the instability probably costs me 30 minutes a week, out of 30-40 hours online.

I think it could evolve in the way you seem to envision, and I would agree that LL do not seem capable of achieving that. But for me, if they did take it that way, SL would probably become much less attractive.

SL will continue to succeed at what it does until either the instability grows to the point that the number of residents starts falling, or a competitor offering a similar level of freedom to create with greater stability and better customer support.

I agree. It's why I wrote "That's assuming that they actually want to succeed in that way" in my previous post. When I started this thread, I was assuming that they are looking to go in that direction, and I based that on something that I read long enough ago for me not to be certain about it any more.

There's a more recent indication that they are not looking to that future. I think it was Zero Linden who suggested that OpenLife come up with an interface to SL, which is in keeping with what I read way back, but that's not the attitude to have if they are looking to a future that I envisage. It is LL who should be devloping a grid interface and protocols, if they are to lead the way in that direction.

It seems that they are not looking to go that way, and I'll have to accept that. I'm sure it will come though, whether LL decides to do it or not.

Lol funny enough mate was telling me how in WoW they can now build steampunk planes and tanks, mobile phones and cyberlimbs next I suspect

Exactly - that's why the "why do they keep adding new features and not fixing the existing bugs" question has an unexpected answer. It's because if they stopped adding new features, SL would stagnate. Content on SL, unfortunately, exhibits diminishing returns in a way that similar content on (say) WoW doesn't - it costs a WoW programmer nothing to type a few extra combat bonuses onto an item and suddenly make it sought-after, but in SL where most things are social, it's much harder.

Most people who have been here for a while have learned that most SL activity is about socialisiation between the real people, and thus as long as your avatar generally looks good and not like a newbie, you'll get treated pretty much equally no matter what exact avatar it is. Having a house can be valuable and making major changes to your house will be noticed, but that's expensive, and if someone else in your "group" already has a house or place to meet then effectively competing with them costs money and probably only adds drama. Of course, just playing dress-up and house for the joy of it can be a lot of fun, but it palls a bit when you realise that no-one else is playing let's pretend.

So adding new features is valuable because it keeps the market moving. Whether or not LL will at some point have to add socially manipulating features is another question..

Well, the thread continues to be interesting and bristling with thought. Congrats, Phil, on starting a great discussion!

There seems to be a persistent confusion on what it would mean if LL succeeded in creating a business-worthy version of SL. There are two very different ways that businesses could use such tools:

1. Build their own private grids using LL's basic "platform", which may/may not be tied to SL. IMHO, this is a big market, and would constitute success for LL. It validates the 3D web concept. Its impact on SL's current social structure and economy would be minimal -- most of the companies' activities in this case ARE NOT IN SL.

Note that I say nothing about whether 3D grids subsume/replace 2D. I don't think that has ever been part of LL's vision, and it certainly is not necessary for LL to be successful.

This is a reason why LL, for example, is working on the voice modifications they are doing. These mods make the platform more capable of business-class collaborative 3D meetings.

2. Do successful product launches, branding, and conferences aimed at the current SL community. I see very few businesses doing this long term ... but smart businesses willl play with this in SL so that they are ready when 3D grids are launched (very possibly built using LL's platform) where it DOES make sense to do this.

Again: the SL we know and love very likely could be only one of many, many grids built using LL technology. But, I think, SL will be hosted by LL for as long as Philip is involved with LL, because it is Philip's legacy project, and his personal dream.
.

I agree with Collette. The reasons for failures of videophones are complex and you've mentioned a few of them. Regardless, for business purposes, I think that SL-style VR won't cut it. Of course, perhaps it's lack of imagination on my part. I've been wrong about this kind of thing before.

I work for a major communications equipment vendor. Lately they've been touting "telepresence". Having been in plenty of videoconferences, which I find a waste of equipment, I didn't expect much.

Well, I did a presentation at a telepresence meeting recently, and found that I was wrong, dead wrong. In this case, it was a meeting between a handful of US engineers and a handful halfway around the world. It was like sitting at an oval table, with our team on one side and their team on the other, life sized or larger, on screen. I could tell as I presented who was getting it and who wasn't. I could look directly at whomever was talking and read their expressions clearly, as well as seeing the reactions of their teammates. Best of all, it was utter simplicity to use: an administrator set up the meeting; when we got there the phone on the table knew about the meeting (it showed in the LCD display) and we pressed one button to connect.

And that's without the fancy feature, which really exists: life-sized, real-time holographic projection.

Sure, this stuff is not cheap enough for small companies, at least not yet.

For business purposes, SL takes too long to learn to control and doesn't naturally show gestures, facial expressions, or body language.

I believe that someday, VR will be a huge part of the lives of many people, just as the Internet is today. At that time, businesses will use VR because it's part of the fabric of society, and VR will offer excellent opportunities. But I don't think they will go there simply for VR meetings.

I think 3D virtual teleconferencing will be a big deal that will only get bigger as the "bandwidth" (it really should be called "throughput" grows to accommodate it. For all the reasons given above, plus a couple more in SL's case. Which should make SL a very big player in this field.

First, SL can serve well indeed as the "poor man's" teleconferencing tool. Compare the cost of a private island to the cost of setting up and operating a conventional teleconference - even one that is just an array of postage-stamp head shots, let alone something so sophisticated as Lear Cale attended. Second, and probably more important, SL offers abundant opportunities for side conversations and back-channel talk. Anybody who's been in the business world knows how important these really are, and conventional teleconferencing cannot provide that - because even if it was available no-one would believe for a minute someone wasn't eavesdropping. In SL, the boss won't see your IM or notecard unless the recipient reveals them. And for another, SL allows for impromptu meetings as needed or wanted, networking, or just plain socializing and even virtual "entertaining" among colleagues, or with clients - all at no additional cost. These are a couple of the main reasons people - and companies - spend small fortunes travelling to conventions and trade shows. Compare THAT to the cost of maintaining a private SL island. For yet another, SL provides a neutral ground where you can teleconference without outside people coming in behind your company firewall. And finally, the abundant creation tools provided free by SL, for conferences where a visible - or audible - example or prototype would be a key component to the meeting. There's just too much an official, corporate teleconferencing network at a feasible price can't - or at least won't - accommodate.

If SL can get its shit together (to use the technical, formal term), I think it will have a bright future indeed in this area. Maybe, even probably, a huge future.

Hmmm... well, video conference replacement (at least partial) is certainly part of what a business gets from a 3D collaborative platform like SL, but not the whole enchilada that they get. And SL will never replace the most successful form of conferencing, the audio conference.

That said, video collaboration platforms have come a long way, Har. Most DO incorporate IM backchannels, even IM conferences among folks who are both in the videoconference and not. Even so, I think videoconferencing is a clumsy tool for anything other than small meetings in conference rooms. Oh, and for the occasional small video conference where you want to show someone remote something live ... "Look, everybody, Junior's first steps!!!".

In SL you can also put up "shows" of your products very quickly and efficiently, detect when someone comes to see them, and show up if you'd like to help the visitor out. You can create atmosphere for a meeting. Y ou can be virtually present, in an avatar that shows a professional you, while you're in your bathrobe. The immersive aspect of SL I think provides a really nice medium spot between being in a meeting room together in RL, and a phone conference.
.

BTW, correcting myself int he above post - where I wrote teleconferencing, of course I meant videoconferencing - it's a lot more than a bunch of people interrupting each other on the telephone...

My info loss with windows has been on two main occasions (though there have been probably hundreds of times that my compy froze running windows, which takes time to reboot, and reopen whatever I've been doing), both have to do with the type of work I do in RL. There is a program that is only made to run with windows, which is well written, and reasonably efficient, but required format for my biz. The problem is that win2k, and xp both have a bug, not a feature, that conflicts with that program. This did not used to be a problem years ago, but then MS "fixed" something, and broke that part of it. Now, I can work for hours on a report, save it, etc, and then freeze time comes, and instead of just crashing, windows refuses to recognize that it's spent 2, 4, 6 hours having something saved. Vista apparently plays well with this other program, but crashes on general principle like a drunk frat boy. After trying it for a week, my husband had so many crashes, he decided to just completely nix the MS OS from his lappy and install unix/ubuntu. Essentially you are making the same point I am, at least with your last sentence. If SL is a service that is provided for free, but you can opt to invest in it, then you have to take the good with the bad. If you're counting it as a business necessity, then it's costs have to be factored it, just as you would the cost of buying your OS. I just don't see that the few problems SL has had in re tps, some downtime, borked uploads have been anywhere in excess of the time out I've had from work rebooting windows, or the problems I've had with any other "service". I used MS because it's easy to pick on, and they're my favorite punching bag of late But it still stands that those of us who choose to put money into SL are well aware that there are some problems. Those that are new should do as any person new to a system should: ASK! The tp issue to me is such a non-issue for me, I just don't get what the problem is. Maybe, like Loki agrees, it's luck, maybe it's compy/connection performance, and maybe it's the sims we're tping to. empty sim? more likely to land, full sim? less so. I think the only huge bork LL has had, that really did cost people a lot was the inventory missing. Which, I believe has been "found", though I"m not entirely sure when and where and what. As someone who never buys no-copy items, unless I absolutely HAVE to, and always takes backups (just like the days before auto-save in word processors) I've been fortunate enough to only loose the Left shoe of one of my outfits.

Lots of good posts here. I'm new and that doesn't afford me to think about the viability of SL or LL's business model like those of you who have been here for years... but I can provide observations of a newcomer, FWIW. This is kind of the progression I've had the last few weeks....

When I first got into SL I wasn't bored at all. There were so many crazy new places to go and creative things that people have come up with. Yea, its not mind blowing graphics but eh... still unique.

Cool, you mean I can actually own/rent land and build or modify structures? Neat. Its like legos from my past, only better. Let me rent some land and mess around with my house.

So how come it never rains or I never need to eat, or some hot guy doesn't just hit on me and we form a cool in-world relationship like I've read about. I guess I need to make more of an effort.... a virtual coffee shop would be nice - too bad I need the caffeine more than my avatar does.

Ok, a week goes by and I've messed around with my house, read two books cover to cover on SL, even created my own clothing already. But what next?

Cool, an in-world TV that broadcasts live shows? Wow, this could be fun.. but how many times can I watch re-broadcasts of a sailing race. Ok, I'm bored of that now. Ran through the few videos worth watching and now my TV is off.

Ohhh.. I can afford to buy my own land now? Maybe in a tropical island setting.. yea, thats it! Ahhhh... that $100 and $28 a month sure feels worth it. Wait, what did I just do?

Maybe I should decorate my skybox or something. Furniture? Some really sweet looking stores out there with a lot of creative things... and only a few real $ for a whole set? But... not sure why I need that. Am I going to actually sit on it and do anything? It would look nice in my house, but now am I just playing ken and barbie without the ken. Thats kind of embarrassing actually, I hope nobody is looking....

Maybe I should seek out some friends. But how? Just hang out? I'm not much of an online chat fan... in fact I kinda like to stick to myself. Maybe I should become an escort... yea baby... er... ok, not. I think most of them are guys in RL anyway... (?) Ew, thats kinda creepy.

But hey, look at this cool pool I could build! I always wanted a fancy pool. Ok, it took longer than I thought to set that thing up... glad I am getting more skilled at editing things or that might have been a nightmare. I'm so happy with myself... but... now what. Am I supposed to sit and float in my pool or something? Lights on, lights off... water jet on, water jet off... cool, almost looks like a flat bottle of rum in that bar. Bored... what else can I build.

Cool, weather! But my sim doesn't allow it. Hmmm... maybe I can make money by building something or making something. Naw, not creative enough. Should I buy more clothing for my avatar? What for... its not like I have anyone to impress but myself.

Browses every single item available on slexchange and onrez... some cool stuff. I wonder why people buy multi-level houses with lots of stairways that are impossible to negotiate anyway. They sure look fancy. Maybe I should save my real life $ and I might be able to upgrade my existing one.

Sure would be nice if the forums and web site were more stable. Makes me think being an estate manager isn't such a good idea. LL obviously doesn't care much about stability. That says a lot.

Hey look, someone is coming my way. Wait, they don't even look like a person and are threatening me. Great, I now have to hide in my skybox and there is this strange person attacking me. I learn how to ban... play with a fun security tool. Ok, now I've basically made it so nobody will ever be able to come talk to me.

What, ban lines aren't allowed? They are annoying. I wonder what else I CAN'T do on my virtual land. I want to be a good neighbor after all.

3 weeks go by... well, I can FINALLY actually buy something big now that the "rules" allow it.. thanks LL. But now I'm so bored I don't know what I'd buy with it.

Going into 4th week... bored of building, bored of shopping, not skilled enough to make money, too nervous and too new to become an estate owner... and I don't have 2 years to wait around before I'm no longer new and people might trust me.

503 error again. Gee, I just got kicked out of my SIM.

Hey cool, Lost is back on TV and Microsoft just released some new software. on to something else... I wonder what will happen to my SL avatar. It sure was pretty. Sure glad I didn't try get my friends into this - what an expensive month that was!

Walks away...

----

Ok, so LL made some $ off me, as did a few others in SL. Only took me a month to get bored enough to move on to something else. Maybe SL can survive on that kind of turnover rate? hmmm... (realizing I'm maybe not the typical SL user...)

It took me a couple months or more to make many friends. I have same friends now almost year though. I have lots of creativity and good friends that what has kept me here.

I must admit,that was an entertaining read.

Agreed!

And my friends list keeps growing!