L$ Deficit Hits L$504,000,000 Annualized!
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ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
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05-16-2006 14:07
From: Lee Ludd Admittedly, exactly how to measure the population base in SL is somewhat problematic. But it would be difficult to defend the proposition that the population base is static. Simple minded estimates using the data available seem to suggest that the population is growing faster than the money supply, and has been for the last year.
Don't be fooled by Linden Lab Population numbers in which accounts have multiple Alts, users who created an account and logged in less than 10 times and never returned, and those who may have once been active, but haven't connected in years... Of the nearly 200,000 people LL claims, I'm pretty sure only about 10-20% of that number is active. Thus making the money supply a primary inflation creator...
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Ranma Tardis
沖縄弛緩の明確で青い水
Join date: 8 Nov 2005
Posts: 1,415
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05-16-2006 14:10
From: ReserveBank Division Then Linden Labs can adjust their policy so that when its time to "Renew" your yearly contract, that redo the Stipend Payouts to be "Adjustable" without warning. Then within 12/months, all the Stipends being paid can be scaled back and not violate anybody's contract. I do not think you are reading that corectly. I would not of paid a year in advance if they can cancel or change my contract without misconduct on my part. I think a court of law would agree. Think about it, what is anything worth in Second Life if Linden Labs can take away property without compensation. The answer is NOTHING! Lindens have no value, land has no value and private sims have no value. I only out about $100 American, what about Anshe Chung?
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Jonas Pierterson
Dark Harlequin
Join date: 27 Dec 2005
Posts: 3,660
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05-16-2006 14:10
From: ReserveBank Division Easy.... Imagine the backlash when somebody who spent L$50,000 for a plot of land (US$15  today turns around when the exchange rate is L$3500 and that same plot is now worth (US$14). Thats what you get when you invest in a game. The linden value remains the same. The majority of SL, I imagine, -could care less- about devaluation of the exchange rate. I know I could care less. Note: you will get no more responses until you can quote me that the seller rate would improve.
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Good freebies here and here I must protest. I am not a merry man! - Warf, ST: TNG, episode: Qpid You killed my father. Prepare to die. - Inigo Montoya, The Princess Bride You killed My father. Your a-- is mine! - Hellboy
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Dmitri Polonsky
Registered User
Join date: 26 Aug 2005
Posts: 562
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05-16-2006 14:13
From: Jamie Bergman With sources of L$62,000,000 per month and sinks of (L$20,000,000) per month, the L$ is projected to leave a net deficit of L$504,000,000 within the next 12 months. With a current money supply of L$660,000,000 the money supply is expected to grow to L$1,164,000,000 within the next 12 months - thats an increase of 76%! LL must find ways to stem this humongous deficit so that future avatars are not saddled with an insurmountable money supply. Additionally, such a large deficit will put pressure on saver avs, who will see the value of their saved L$ plummet. At the current deficit, it would not be unreasonable to see the L$ trade at L$550 per $1 USD within 12 months. We cannot continue to live high on the free money hog because we are just mortgaging our own future - and future generations of helpless nOObs. I strongly encourage the Linden Reserve Bank to take immediate action. Pity there's not an equal deficit on freebie resellers. Note...I did NOT name names.
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eltee Statosky
Luskie
Join date: 23 Sep 2003
Posts: 1,258
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05-16-2006 14:20
don't pay any attention to the troll behind the curtain
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wash, rinse, repeat
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Coilin Noonan
Registered User
Join date: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 2
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money /greed
05-16-2006 14:24
Hum lets see yes this is a very profitable game for some. Lets see i believe this was made to be a game to have fun and meet others show off creativity and have a 2nd life. I don't believe that it was intended to end up like it has as a 2nd job with some making 250k in 2 years and others making a ton of rl cash also. So what if theres a 3500000 l to 1 us dollar i'll still have fun i'm not here to make a job and feed my family thats what my 1st life is for. and my real life job. I'm here to party and get away from rl bs and enjoy a retreat into an alter ego/life. I believe the crying about the economy is going way to far into the real life politics of a real world and too many are greedy for making a living here. I need my 500 a week to have a way to buy stuff and not be a stripper or screw a bunch of perverts for a living in my second life. I get screwed enough in my 1st life and unless your a good programer or graphic arts person/animator you won't make much here unless you sell tons of porn or make a hot escort girl.
just an uneducated observation
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mcgeeb Gupte
Jolie Femme @}-,-'-,---
Join date: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 1,152
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05-16-2006 14:38
From: Lee Dimsum Well the Linden is falling for another reason. Purchasing a 12m premium account implies buying 26k L$ at a rate of 1 usd to 361 L$... The exchange rate will adjust and fluctuate around 361. At a flat rate it equals this. You're not counting anything else like sinks.
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Gigs Taggart
The Invisible Hand
Join date: 12 Feb 2006
Posts: 406
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05-16-2006 14:38
From: Jonas Pierterson edit: charges will still be pressed if this is done before my contract is fulfilled, neither party in a contract can alter the agreement without the others consent You do know you can't "press charges" for breech of contract, right? It would be a civil action, not a criminal one. And damages in your case would be what? $50 USD? Good luck on that suit. You'd pay that much in travel expenses even if you live in California. You want a class action? The laywers would make millions of dollars, and you'd get a check for $1 or so in the mail 2 years later. I hate it when people threaten to sue needlessly.
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Ranma Tardis
沖縄弛緩の明確で青い水
Join date: 8 Nov 2005
Posts: 1,415
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05-16-2006 16:48
From: Gigs Taggart You do know you can't "press charges" for breech of contract, right? It would be a civil action, not a criminal one. And damages in your case would be what? $50 USD? Good luck on that suit. You'd pay that much in travel expenses even if you live in California. You want a class action? The laywers would make millions of dollars, and you'd get a check for $1 or so in the mail 2 years later. I hate it when people threaten to sue needlessly. So you think a company has the right to do anything to its customers? Actually I think fraud is a criminal action. Promising one thing and delivering another might fit this description. You think a action is ok as long as you can get away with it? With atitudes like this no wonder my firm will soon be #1 in the world!
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Gigs Taggart
The Invisible Hand
Join date: 12 Feb 2006
Posts: 406
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05-16-2006 17:50
From: Ranma Tardis So you think a company has the right to do anything to its customers? Actually I think fraud is a criminal action. Promising one thing and delivering another might fit this description. You think a action is ok as long as you can get away with it? No I don't think that. Lets be realistic, however. 1. Linden Labs isn't going to drop paid-for premium stipends. They will phase them out as many have suggested. 2. You wouldn't really sue them anyway, even if they did. It just bugs me when people start yelling about how they will sue all the time.
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Jonas Pierterson
Dark Harlequin
Join date: 27 Dec 2005
Posts: 3,660
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05-16-2006 17:54
If they breach the agreement without a phaseout, then I will seek recompense. if they want to pay the remainder of my contracts stipends at once, that is acceptable. I will actively persue gathering enough players for a class action suit if needbe.
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Good freebies here and here I must protest. I am not a merry man! - Warf, ST: TNG, episode: Qpid You killed my father. Prepare to die. - Inigo Montoya, The Princess Bride You killed My father. Your a-- is mine! - Hellboy
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Ranma Tardis
沖縄弛緩の明確で青い水
Join date: 8 Nov 2005
Posts: 1,415
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05-16-2006 18:03
From: Gigs Taggart No I don't think that. Lets be realistic, however. 1. Linden Labs isn't going to drop paid-for premium stipends. They will phase them out as many have suggested. 2. You wouldn't really sue them anyway, even if they did. It just bugs me when people start yelling about how they will sue all the time. How do you know? You know nothing about me in real life. If Linden Labs drops stipend in the middle of my one year prepaid membership, yes I would seek redress. It is my hope they will honor their comitment and do the right thing thus avoiding such unpleasantness. Will I renew my premium membership with no stipend, NO! It will just not be worth it.
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Allana Dion
Registered User
Join date: 12 Jul 2005
Posts: 1,230
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05-16-2006 18:52
From: Jamie Bergman Fine. But before long your precious L$500 will be worth peanuts. It wont even be worth paying premium account prices for. This is a serious problem. Are you on a premium account or basic? You believe that the stipends are destroying the economy. Do you give your stipend back when it's given to you every week or are you just holding on to that cash happily and complaing about it here? Personally I couldn't care less whether stipends stay or go but your habit of yelling about the things you feel are issues repeatedly doesn't seem to be helping anyone see your point. Seems to be having the opposite effect. As a business woman *cough* I would assume that you understand the concept of catering to your market, or in this case your audience. If what you're trying to sell them isn't sparking their interest, you try another tact.
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Jopsy Pendragon
Perpetual Outsider
Join date: 15 Jan 2004
Posts: 1,906
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05-16-2006 19:12
Ranma / Jonas- LL will very likely refund a prorated amount, for the unused months of an anual membership, if the reason for cancellation is due to a change in the terms of service imposed by them. They'd might do it anyway if you asked nicely at the time of cancellation. (they might also say that because you opted for the discounted anual rate that you're not eligible for a prorated refund, tough luck.) You're being quite unreasonable if you expect more than that. Can we please chill out about this so we can get back to freaking out about how the SecondLife Deficit is so zOMG! Terrible! I still haven't gotten a solid answer to my question... to rephrase... How will a perpetually sliding exchange rate harm SecondLife? A perpetually sliding exchange rate merely discourages people from holding large sums of L$'s due to the "negative interest payements". So what? So it is a cost of business to be dealt with by the likes of Anshe, IGE and others that are MAKING money off of other people's L$. (and they're savvy enough to adjust their business models to remain successful.) Come on you "non-Osterichs" out there... paint me a believable scenario that shows how a steady and predictable slide in the exchange rate will ultimately destroy the community of SecondLife.
Convince me... and I'll join the "Kill the Stipends" bandwagon.
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Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
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05-16-2006 19:13
Are you joking? I cash L$ the SECOND I get them. It has served me well, as the value has done nothing but plummet and will continue to do so.
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Jopsy Pendragon
Perpetual Outsider
Join date: 15 Jan 2004
Posts: 1,906
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05-16-2006 19:19
From: Jamie Bergman I cash L$ the SECOND I get them. One could say that the system was designed to encourage you to do exactly that. The more money passing through the Lindex, the more LL skims off the top, and what better way to encourage you to sell L$'s daily than to have tomorrow's value known to be lower?
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ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
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05-16-2006 20:13
From: Jonas Pierterson Thats what you get when you invest in a game. The linden value remains the same. The majority of SL, I imagine, -could care less- about devaluation of the exchange rate. I know I could care less. Note: you will get no more responses until you can quote me that the seller rate would improve. Poor Jonas, unable to see the forest for all the trees... Let me spell out an example with some details to better help you comprehend the meaning of Money Supply Inflation. Example ---------- Jonas buys L$1,000,000 of the LindenX because he just wants to stare at his money. He is going to shake his fist at the world and proclaim that he is the Econ Guru of SL. So this little experiment will cost Jonas US$3,225 at the current exchange rate of L$310. And today, May 16, 2006 is the day Jonas begins his experiment. Fast forward the clock to May 16, 2007. The Linden Dollar exchange rate is now L$500. Jonas still holds L$1,000,000 linden dollars. Jonas beats his chest and says, "I'm going to show that ReserveBank who's the man around here." So Jonas sells his L$1,000,000 on LindenX for L$500. Jonas gawks when his transaction receipt says that all he gets is US$2,000. Jonas stares and wonders where in the heck his US$1,225 went. Jonas looks around for his "majority" who could careless about the devaluation of the Linden Dollar, only to find out that he is the last man standing. Everybody else dumped their Linden Dollars for USDs because they could see the hand writting on the wall. --> A Falling Valuation, Linden Labs continued arrogance of flooding the SL Economy with Linden Dollars via Stipends, and the never ending flood of land, all of which quickly educated 99% of SLers that holding Linden Dollars was a stupid thing to do. Now, everybody waits on the side lines with piles of USDs just waiting for the Linden Policy to shift to one that curtails the Stipends and New Land. Along with a increase in the sinks to begin eating away at the massive supply of currency in the market. All of these positive changes would begin to trigger a buying spree of Linden Dollars. Pushing the valuation back up and making hard working SLers feel proud of their paychecks when they sell a widget. Does that help Jonas? Repeat after me: "When the Money Supply grows faster than GDP, you get Inflation." "Anybody who uses population growth as a money supply trigger is an idiot" Maybe this picture can ease the pain of this educational lesson. 
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Jopsy Pendragon
Perpetual Outsider
Join date: 15 Jan 2004
Posts: 1,906
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05-16-2006 21:34
From: ReserveBank Division Poor Jonas, unable to see the forest for all the trees... Let me spell out an example with some details to better help you comprehend the meaning of Money Supply Inflation (someone) buys L$1,000,000 of the LindenX because he just wants to stare at his money. and he pays a vanity tax for sitting on a stupid big wad of money in a system where HOLDING money clearly doesn't pay. One could call it a STUPIDITY tax. So. Show me why SecondLife needs someone to buy a bunch of Lindens, SIT on them doing nothing with them... and then try to sell them a year later? And show me why punishing someone for being stupid enough to try to manipulate the L$ in this way is bad for SecondLife? Nice try... but the only person this example works out bad for is the idiot that "invested" in a fantasy currency that has a very clear and established downward trend. L$ are meant to be spent, not held on to, buy what you need, cash out the surplus.
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ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
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05-16-2006 21:48
From: Jopsy Pendragon L$ are meant to be spent, not held on to, buy what you need, cash out the surplus.
Funny you should mention such a phrase. Because a solution to the Glut of Linden Dollars, is actually to create an in-game investment vehicle which would be quoted in Linden Dollars. Causing people to buy linden dollars, increasing the demand side of the equation, and moving valuations back up. Thus the need for an Equity/Bond Market in SL. Sir Jopsy owns 65,000m2 of land. You need some cash for a business venture, so you issue a Bond against your land for 1/yr paying a yield of 6%. Lets assume you get L$300,000 for your bond from SL investors. You do whatever to create a Widget Shop with your money. Every month for 12 months, you repay L$25000 on the Bond + L$1500 in interest. At the end of one year, the bond is repaid and the investors netted themselves L$18,000. Of course, if you default on a payment, your land is revoked, given to the investors, and sold to recoup their investment. Also during which time, you are prevented from selling the land before the bond+interest is repaid.
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Jonas Pierterson
Dark Harlequin
Join date: 27 Dec 2005
Posts: 3,660
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05-16-2006 23:20
From: Jopsy Pendragon and he pays a vanity tax for sitting on a stupid big wad of money in a system where HOLDING money clearly doesn't pay. One could call it a STUPIDITY tax. So. Show me why SecondLife needs someone to buy a bunch of Lindens, SIT on them doing nothing with them... and then try to sell them a year later? And show me why punishing someone for being stupid enough to try to manipulate the L$ in this way is bad for SecondLife? Nice try... but the only person this example works out bad for is the idiot that "invested" in a fantasy currency that has a very clear and established downward trend. L$ are meant to be spent, not held on to, buy what you need, cash out the surplus. I usually have at most 3k in my main account, shipping extra off to me and my sl wife's 'bank' alt. The 'bank' alt lets us enjoy what we have without going overboard on spending - as all we see is usually around 1k. But it also allows us to pull larger amounts when we need them or want them for something particular, be it a land parcel, 1 or 2k each for high stakes games, or todays pocket edition greedy. We have the lindens to get what we want. Its a comfortable second life.
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Good freebies here and here I must protest. I am not a merry man! - Warf, ST: TNG, episode: Qpid You killed my father. Prepare to die. - Inigo Montoya, The Princess Bride You killed My father. Your a-- is mine! - Hellboy
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Jopsy Pendragon
Perpetual Outsider
Join date: 15 Jan 2004
Posts: 1,906
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05-16-2006 23:30
From: ReserveBank Division Funny you should mention such a phrase. Because a solution to the Glut of Linden Dollars, (etc etc etc) While the rest of that sounds like it might be an interesting 'game' moneywise... I'm not going to do anything that puts my land in jeapordy. If I need in L$ beyond what I can scrounge up by selling/commision-work or offloading a parcel, then I buy them at the current rate. If it *REALLY* poses a threat to the community and SecondLife as a "platform" I want to understand how and why. So far I've just seen bad parallels made to real life (where I agree, deficits with national governments can be bad things. Particularly, if MY salary isn't keeping up with inflation and taxation). Try again? Please... explain to me why "glut of Lindens Dollars" (as you call it) is ultimately bad for SecondLife.
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Chloe Lowell
Registered User
Join date: 28 Mar 2006
Posts: 84
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05-16-2006 23:41
I am sure, someone in one of the hundreds of other threads suggested the obvious solution as it is. If the currency is devluaing against the dollar, then increase your prices. If you think, selling an item at 1$ each is fair, then set your L$ price as appropriate.
Real life eonomies go through currency fluctuations and inflation is a regular part of most economies, so why not here?
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Jopsy Pendragon
Perpetual Outsider
Join date: 15 Jan 2004
Posts: 1,906
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05-16-2006 23:48
From: Chloe Lowell I am sure, someone in one of the hundreds of other threads suggested the obvious solution as it is. If the currency is devluaing against the dollar, then increase your prices. If you think, selling an item at 1$ each is fair, then set your L$ price as appropriate. Real life eonomies go through currency fluctuations and inflation is a regular part of most economies, so why not here? Well, part of the perceived problem is that the fluctuation is ever downward (or upward depending on how you look at it). I'm just kinda curious, there's a lot of: "Something must be done immediately!" (by non-ostEriches) I'm just asking them to paint a picture of this inevitable and horrible financial doom that we're on a collision course with... such that killing stipends is our only hope for survival. Until then, I'm not buying it. Even with tomorrow's cheaper L$'s. 
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Allana Dion
Registered User
Join date: 12 Jul 2005
Posts: 1,230
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05-17-2006 00:27
From: Jamie Bergman Are you joking? I cash L$ the SECOND I get them. It has served me well, as the value has done nothing but plummet and will continue to do so. Once again you completely missed my point. If you truly believe that the stipends are the big problem as you claim and you really are advocating that everyone demand they stop... then why are you still accepting yours? If you believe what you say, shouldn't you be giving it back.. (ie: upload some random texture 50 times every tuesday to give back the 500) and then recomending everyone who agrees with you on the issue should do the same thing over and over until the Lindens finally hear you? Again I'll state, I personally don't get a stipend, never needed one and don't care. BUT, you do care so, give it back. If you believe the stipends are a threat to the economy, utilize one of the L$ sinks and dump em. Or would that just be much too logical and not nearly as much fun as just screaming about it?
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Nepenthes Ixchel
Broadly Offended.
Join date: 6 Dec 2005
Posts: 696
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05-17-2006 04:00
From: Eddy Stryker I have a hard time keeping track of the chicken little threads, can someone remind me at which exchange rate Second Life is going to fail and the virtual world will cease to exist? If it's anywhere near L$320/$1USD let me know quickly please. At any given moment doom is when the linden reaches 10% lower than it is. ("Jam yesterday, jam tomorrow, but never jam today". I learnt more about economics reading Alice Through the Looking Glass than I do here.... but this is fun!)
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