L$ Deficit Hits L$504,000,000 Annualized!
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Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
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05-16-2006 09:11
With sources of L$62,000,000 per month and sinks of (L$20,000,000) per month, the L$ is projected to leave a net deficit of L$504,000,000 within the next 12 months. With a current money supply of L$660,000,000 the money supply is expected to grow to L$1,164,000,000 within the next 12 months - thats an increase of 76%!
LL must find ways to stem this humongous deficit so that future avatars are not saddled with an insurmountable money supply. Additionally, such a large deficit will put pressure on saver avs, who will see the value of their saved L$ plummet.
At the current deficit, it would not be unreasonable to see the L$ trade at L$550 per $1 USD within 12 months.
We cannot continue to live high on the free money hog because we are just mortgaging our own future - and future generations of helpless nOObs.
I strongly encourage the Linden Reserve Bank to take immediate action.
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Jonas Pierterson
Dark Harlequin
Join date: 27 Dec 2005
Posts: 3,660
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05-16-2006 09:21
What free money? Dwell is leaving.
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Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
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05-16-2006 09:25
Stipends.
We must stop borrowing against the future!
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Jonas Pierterson
Dark Harlequin
Join date: 27 Dec 2005
Posts: 3,660
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05-16-2006 09:27
I paid for my stipend. So its not free money to me. If you have aproblem with the source, go ask LL to get my 500L a week off the market. As long as I get my 500, as my contract states, I'm happy.
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Good freebies here and here I must protest. I am not a merry man! - Warf, ST: TNG, episode: Qpid You killed my father. Prepare to die. - Inigo Montoya, The Princess Bride You killed My father. Your a-- is mine! - Hellboy
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Lee Dimsum
Registered User
Join date: 22 Feb 2006
Posts: 118
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05-16-2006 09:36
Well the Linden is falling for another reason. Purchasing a 12m premium account implies buying 26k L$ at a rate of 1 usd to 361 L$... The exchange rate will adjust and fluctuate around 361.
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Jopsy Pendragon
Perpetual Outsider
Join date: 15 Jan 2004
Posts: 1,906
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05-16-2006 09:46
From: Jamie Bergman ... a net deficit of L$504,000,000 within the next 12 months. "Any deficit must, ultimately, be repaid, either through taxation, or seignorage. The Ricardian equivalence hypothesis states that this means a public deficit is exactly the same as a tax rise." -- wikipediaSorry... I just thought 'seignorage' was a cool term.  (I fear senior age more than seignorage.)
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Nexus Nash
Undercover Linden
Join date: 18 Dec 2002
Posts: 1,084
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05-16-2006 09:53
From: Jamie Bergman With sources of L$62,000,000 per month and sinks of (L$20,000,000) per month, the L$ is projected to leave a net deficit of L$504,000,000 within the next 12 months. With a current money supply of L$660,000,000 the money supply is expected to grow to L$1,164,000,000 within the next 12 months - thats an increase of 76%!
LL must find ways to stem this humongous deficit so that future avatars are not saddled with an insurmountable money supply. Additionally, such a large deficit will put pressure on saver avs, who will see the value of their saved L$ plummet.
At the current deficit, it would not be unreasonable to see the L$ trade at L$550 per $1 USD within 12 months.
We cannot continue to live high on the free money hog because we are just mortgaging our own future - and future generations of helpless nOObs.
I strongly encourage the Linden Reserve Bank to take immediate action. Would you please stop trolling. zOMG THE L$!!! People that actually understand economic policy are laughing at you right now and you're scaring all the noobs away. Just stop.
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Lee Dimsum
Registered User
Join date: 22 Feb 2006
Posts: 118
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05-16-2006 09:54
From: Nexus Nash Would you please stop trolling. zOMG THE L$!!! People that actually understand economic policy are laughing at you right now and you're scaring all the noobs away. Just stop. +1
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Phoenix Psaltery
Ninja Wizard
Join date: 25 Feb 2005
Posts: 2,599
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05-16-2006 09:59
From: Nexus Nash Would you please stop trolling. zOMG THE L$!!! People that actually understand economic policy are laughing at you right now and you're scaring all the noobs away. Just stop. A-MEN! P2
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Ranma Tardis
沖縄弛緩の明確で青い水
Join date: 8 Nov 2005
Posts: 1,415
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05-16-2006 10:07
From: Jamie Bergman With sources of L$62,000,000 per month and sinks of (L$20,000,000) per month, the L$ is projected to leave a net deficit of L$504,000,000 within the next 12 months. With a current money supply of L$660,000,000 the money supply is expected to grow to L$1,164,000,000 within the next 12 months - thats an increase of 76%! LL must find ways to stem this humongous deficit so that future avatars are not saddled with an insurmountable money supply. Additionally, such a large deficit will put pressure on saver avs, who will see the value of their saved L$ plummet. At the current deficit, it would not be unreasonable to see the L$ trade at L$550 per $1 USD within 12 months. We cannot continue to live high on the free money hog because we are just mortgaging our own future - and future generations of helpless nOObs. I strongly encourage the Linden Reserve Bank to take immediate action. There would be legal action against Linden Labs if the stipend for "premium" members was dropped without compensation. Yes, I would join in a group action against them. However it is not my desire of wish to do so! A remedy to removing stipends for premium members is to double the 512sq meters land allotment to 1024 sq meters. I can accept this action and think most "premium" members can as well. Content providers provide a service and enrich Second Life but where would it be without the people who pay the real life expenses? Remember this, I don't pay real money for things that can only be used in second life. I would make my own instead! Also there are a lot of freebies out there! Perhaps you will be happy if all land was owned by a the very few and everone rented? Again be careful of what you ask for! If all land belong to a few they could ditate any terms that they could think of for land rental.
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Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
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05-16-2006 10:28
From: Nexus Nash Would you please stop trolling. zOMG THE L$!!! People that actually understand economic policy are laughing at you right now and you're scaring all the noobs away. Just stop. If you're laughing, YOU are the fool, my furry friend. Because if that is the case, it is you who is ignorant.
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Nexus Nash
Undercover Linden
Join date: 18 Dec 2002
Posts: 1,084
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05-16-2006 10:33
From: Jamie Bergman If you're laughing, YOU are the fool, my furry friend. Because if that is the case, it is you who is ignorant. yes yes... arn't we all...
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Ranma Tardis
沖縄弛緩の明確で青い水
Join date: 8 Nov 2005
Posts: 1,415
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05-16-2006 10:42
Well I have suggested one way to compensate the "premium" members for the droping of the stipend. Can anyone thing of anything else?
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Maxx Monde
Registered User
Join date: 14 Nov 2003
Posts: 1,848
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05-16-2006 10:45
Its just desensitization - OMG JAMIE POSTED ABOUT L$, LOL.
I mean, it dilutes the effectiveness, whatever you are driving at Jamie, or perhaps that is your point, after all - making your posts incrementally inflationary? Lack of attention power?
OMG JAMIE POST INFLATION, WATCH OUT!!
Hahah.
Really redundant loop, eh?
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ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
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05-16-2006 10:46
From: Jamie Bergman With sources of L$62,000,000 per month and sinks of (L$20,000,000) per month, the L$ is projected to leave a net deficit of L$504,000,000 within the next 12 months. With a current money supply of L$660,000,000 the money supply is expected to grow to L$1,164,000,000 within the next 12 months - thats an increase of 76%!
LL must find ways to stem this humongous deficit so that future avatars are not saddled with an insurmountable money supply. Additionally, such a large deficit will put pressure on saver avs, who will see the value of their saved L$ plummet.
At the current deficit, it would not be unreasonable to see the L$ trade at L$550 per $1 USD within 12 months.
We cannot continue to live high on the free money hog because we are just mortgaging our own future - and future generations of helpless nOObs.
I strongly encourage the Linden Reserve Bank to take immediate action. I 2nd this motion... A Money Supply of L$1.1/Billion is unacceptable. Jamie is correct, the L$ will surpass L$500 by this time next year. No doubt about it. We can fix the problem now, because later is too late.
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Zonax Delorean
Registered User
Join date: 5 Jun 2004
Posts: 767
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05-16-2006 10:48
From: Ranma Tardis A remedy to removing stipends for premium members is to double the 512sq meters land allotment to 1024 sq meters. Sounds like a good alternative for me, too. I'd rather have +512 sqm. Though you shouldn't think that it comes free for Linden Labs: it would mean adding about 78 sims (if we suppose that there are 10000 premium users), or 156 sims (if we suppose 20000 active users). That's some money, monthly, too! For Linden Labs, it might SEEM cheaper not to do anything, but that might only be short-term thinking: if the economy is too unstable, people won't invest (time, energy, money) in it.
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Zonax Delorean
Registered User
Join date: 5 Jun 2004
Posts: 767
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05-16-2006 10:51
From: ReserveBank Division I 2nd this motion... A Money Supply of L$1.1/Billion is unacceptable. Jamie is correct, the L$ will surpass L$500 by this time next year. No doubt about it. We can fix the problem now, because later is too late. Yeah, right... Except at about L$ 361 / USD people who hold premium accounts just for cashing in the stipend, will start losing money. And thus, terminate their speculative premium account, which will mean less cash inflow.
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ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
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05-16-2006 10:52
From: Jonas Pierterson I paid for my stipend. So its not free money to me. If you have aproblem with the source, go ask LL to get my 500L a week off the market. As long as I get my 500, as my contract states, I'm happy. You need a new song. "I Paid For My Stipends" has dropped off the Top100 charts...
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Nexus Nash
Undercover Linden
Join date: 18 Dec 2002
Posts: 1,084
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05-16-2006 10:58
2 questions... From: Jonas Pierterson I paid for my stipend. So its not free money to me. If you have aproblem with the source, go ask LL to get my 500L a week off the market. As long as I get my 500, as my contract states, I'm happy. 1. What 'contract'? From: Jamie Bergman L$ Deficit Hits L$504,000,000 Annualized! 2. What 'deficit'?
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Keiki Lemieux
I make HUDDLES
Join date: 8 Jul 2005
Posts: 1,490
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05-16-2006 11:21
From: Nexus Nash Would you please stop trolling. zOMG THE L$!!! People that actually understand economic policy are laughing at you right now and you're scaring all the noobs away. Just stop. Ditto
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Static Sprocket
Registered User
Join date: 10 Feb 2006
Posts: 157
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05-16-2006 11:22
From: Ranma Tardis There would be legal action against Linden Labs if the stipend for "premium" members was dropped without compensation. Well, changing it wouldn't be all that difficult. The agreement between you and linden labs is only a binding contract for your current account period -- so if your on a 30 day account, they are free to change that agreement prior to you renewing at the end of your current period (same with the longer account options.) *If* Linden Labs should choose to do so, they could change the agreement in regards to stipends, land tier, or any other respect and simply grand-father in all the current premium accounts until their current account term ends. Account holders could themselves, decide if they wish to renew under the new agreement or not. P.S. I personally do not believe removing or reducing stipends is needed to stabilize the Linden. IMHO sinks, reduction of other sources, and a slow shift in what people expect to receive for free in-world (clubs, games, events, etc) will help keep the economy both growing and assist in stabilizing the Linden. I also believe the idea of a L$250 to $1 USD was a bit optimistic based on the account options that are available -- my hope is that the linden will stabilize somewhere above the L$361 quoted by some, how much higher depends on how things unfold over the next six months.
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ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
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05-16-2006 11:26
Ditto to the Ditto Machine..
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Cheyenne Marquez
Registered User
Join date: 19 Sep 2005
Posts: 940
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05-16-2006 11:28
A glance at this thread tells me the osteriches are multiplying. 
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Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
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05-16-2006 11:32
From: ReserveBank Division I 2nd this motion... A Money Supply of L$1.1/Billion is unacceptable. Jamie is correct, the L$ will surpass L$500 by this time next year. No doubt about it. We can fix the problem now, because later is too late. Its so sad how history repeats itself. The so called "financial wizards" assure the masses of the world that there is nothing to fear... while the economy crashes around them. And in the end, it is the huddled masses who are hurt most, as they unwittingly end up holding the bag. SL Huddled Masses, Arise ye!! Cast off your L$'s before they are further devalued. THIS IS YOUR WAKEUP CALL!!! Do not listen to the osteriches who pretend there is no problem and have ridden the L$ down from L$250 / $1 USD to the current situation and still claim there is no problem - even in the face of massive Linden Federal Deficits. Houston, there IS a problem!!!!
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Keiki Lemieux
I make HUDDLES
Join date: 8 Jul 2005
Posts: 1,490
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05-16-2006 11:33
From: Static Sprocket Well, changing it wouldn't be all that difficult.
The agreement between you and linden labs is only a binding contract for your current account period -- so if your on a 30 day account, they are free to change that agreement prior to you renewing at the end of your current period (same with the longer account options.)
*If* Linden Labs should choose to do so, they could change the agreement in regards to stipends, land tier, or any other respect and simply grand-father in all the current premium accounts until their current account term ends. Account holders could themselves, decide if they wish to renew under the new agreement or not.
P.S. I personally do not believe removing or reducing stipends is needed to stabilize the Linden. IMHO sinks, reduction of other sources, and a slow shift in what people expect to receive for free in-world (clubs, games, events, etc) will help keep the economy both growing and assist in stabilizing the Linden. I also believe the idea of a L$250 to $1 USD was a bit optimistic based on the account options that are available -- my hope is that the linden will stabilize somewhere above the L$361 quoted by some, how much higher depends on how things unfold over the next six months. Another thing they could do is increase the cost of an annual plan. If it was $10 a month, $27 a quarter or $96 a year, then the magic 361 number would be altered considerably. Suddenly they would be selling lindens at 270/$ as part of an annual package. I wonder how that would affect the market.
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