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L$ Deficit Hits L$504,000,000 Annualized!

Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
05-16-2006 11:36
From: Keiki Lemieux
Another thing they could do is increase the cost of an annual plan. If it was $10 a month, $27 a quarter or $96 a year, then the magic 361 number would be altered considerably. Suddenly they would be selling lindens at 270/$ as part of an annual package. I wonder how that would affect the market.


It wouldn't. The growing money supply is the PROBLEM, not the answer.
Nolan Nash
Frischer Frosch
Join date: 15 May 2003
Posts: 7,141
05-16-2006 11:44
It's the economy, stupid.
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ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
05-16-2006 11:51
From: Jamie Bergman
It wouldn't. The growing money supply is the PROBLEM, not the answer.




Ditto.... The Premium Accounts aren't the problem with the
the massive supply of Linden Dollars. Stipends are source of
the problem.

The question for Linden Labs and everybody else should be:

a) End Stipends and let the economy live within L$660/million Linden Dollars

b) Trim back the Stipends Dollars and adjust them based on a "real" number
in-world to determine how much should be put back into the economy.
And "population" should not be part of the number as long as LL wishes to
only look at "total accounts" while ignoring Alt Accounts and Account which
haven't logged in for months/years.
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Jopsy Pendragon
Perpetual Outsider
Join date: 15 Jan 2004
Posts: 1,906
05-16-2006 11:53
The cash flow is a river. More is flowing into the ocean than the ocean can absorb.

Move to higher ground.

--
I live on a houseboat... if sea level goes up, I can live more places. ;)
Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
05-16-2006 11:59
From: Nolan Nash
It's the economy, stupid.


Bingo.
Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
05-16-2006 12:00
From: Jopsy Pendragon
The cash flow is a river. More is flowing into the ocean than the ocean can absorb.

Move to higher ground.


Yes, you get it.

Please spread the word and help to save some clueless nOObs.
Ranma Tardis
沖縄弛緩の明確で青い水
Join date: 8 Nov 2005
Posts: 1,415
05-16-2006 12:02
From: ReserveBank Division
Ditto.... The Premium Accounts aren't the problem with the
the massive supply of Linden Dollars. Stipends are source of
the problem.

The question for Linden Labs and everybody else should be:

a) End Stipends and let the economy live within L$660/million Linden Dollars

b) Trim back the Stipends Dollars and adjust them based on a "real" number
in-world to determine how much should be put back into the economy.
And "population" should not be part of the number as long as LL wishes to
only look at "total accounts" while ignoring Alt Accounts and Account which
haven't logged in for months/years.


I dont think you are reading my messages. I paid for my stipend and it is part of my contract with Linden Labs.

Cutting back my stipend is breaking the contract with the premium members.
Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
05-16-2006 12:05
From: Ranma Tardis
I dont think you are reading my messages. I paid for my stipend and it is part of my contract with Linden Labs.

Cutting back my stipend is breaking the contract with the premium members.


Fine. But before long your precious L$500 will be worth peanuts. It wont even be worth paying premium account prices for. This is a serious problem.
Ranma Tardis
沖縄弛緩の明確で青い水
Join date: 8 Nov 2005
Posts: 1,415
05-16-2006 12:23
From: Jamie Bergman
Fine. But before long your precious L$500 will be worth peanuts. It wont even be worth paying premium account prices for. This is a serious problem.


It is your problem and not mine; I could care less if the linden went to 3,500 Lindens to the dollar or 35,000. I am a premium member to own land and get my 512. The 500 is an important part but not the only part.



Oh I am paid up in advance to save money. What you are asking for is to take away what was part of the agreement. This is to primary to benefit others like yourself which am guessing is a basic member.



Now I have no problem with removing the stipend to basic members. This will have a bigger effect and Linden Labs has no legal obligation to pay it.
Psyra Extraordinaire
Corra Nacunda Chieftain
Join date: 24 Jul 2004
Posts: 1,533
05-16-2006 12:23
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Seraph Nephilim
and the angels will weep
Join date: 28 Jan 2006
Posts: 255
05-16-2006 12:41
From: Psyra Extraordinaire
Moved to Sticky on every forum....
Jopsy Pendragon
Perpetual Outsider
Join date: 15 Jan 2004
Posts: 1,906
05-16-2006 12:58
From: Jamie Bergman
But before long your precious L$500 will be worth peanuts.


Jamie / RBD -

So... let's plan on an eventual exchange rate of L$3,000 to US$1.

Tell me again... how is this going to destroy SecondLife?

So people spend the same US$ for bunches more L$. Stipends devalued to one tenth their current value... where's the problem?
Kelly Nordberg
Registered User
Join date: 12 Mar 2006
Posts: 116
05-16-2006 13:07
I have also stated the possible option to resolve the excess $L supply the stipend created:

LL should treat preimum accounts as standing $L buy options. (250/288/361 per USD) and first buy a portion of the $L in Lindex to pay for the stipends. Additional can be printed if the market is too hot and can take infusion of new $L. (Need an economical advisor to determin this.)

Another option is to let the existing preimum account agreement run out and switch all preimum members to new "land owner" account, and adjust the price accordingly. (for the ones with lifetime account, LL would just have to eat that)

Stable and trusted currency is needed for SL to viable long term (in addition to technological improvement). SL relies 100% on user created contents to provide entertainment to the "gamers" crowd. If SL does not provide the necessary return to worth the content creator's time, there will be no new contents and SL will fail.
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Kelly Nordberg
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Eddy Stryker
libsecondlife Developer
Join date: 6 Jun 2004
Posts: 353
05-16-2006 13:19
I have a hard time keeping track of the chicken little threads, can someone remind me at which exchange rate Second Life is going to fail and the virtual world will cease to exist? If it's anywhere near L$320/$1USD let me know quickly please.
Ranma Tardis
沖縄弛緩の明確で青い水
Join date: 8 Nov 2005
Posts: 1,415
05-16-2006 13:19
From: Kelly Nordberg
I have also stated the possible option to resolve the excess $L supply the stipend created:

LL should treat preimum accounts as standing $L buy options. (250/288/361 per USD) and first buy a portion of the $L in Lindex to pay for the stipends. Additional can be printed if the market is too hot and can take infusion of new $L. (Need an economical advisor to determin this.)

Another option is to let the existing preimum account agreement run out and switch all preimum members to new "land owner" account, and adjust the price accordingly. (for the ones with lifetime account, LL would just have to eat that)

Stable and trusted currency is needed for SL to viable long term (in addition to technological improvement). SL relies 100% on user created contents to provide entertainment to the "gamers" crowd. If SL does not provide the necessary return to worth the content creator's time, there will be no new contents and SL will fail.


I disagree with you because there is a lot of content available now. The Lindens use to make the content and will have to do it again.
Ranma Tardis
沖縄弛緩の明確で青い水
Join date: 8 Nov 2005
Posts: 1,415
05-16-2006 13:20
From: Eddy Stryker
I have a hard time keeping track of the chicken little threads, can someone remind me at which exchange rate Second Life is going to fail and the virtual world will cease to exist? If it's anywhere near L$320/$1USD let me know quickly please.


Last it suppose to be L$350 to $1.

I agree with you, who cares? Not me!
Gurgon Grumby
Registered User
Join date: 2 Dec 2004
Posts: 24
05-16-2006 13:25
In this surplus scenario has SL population growth been factored in? What about money removed from the economy by; being left in inactive accounts? Players who still have a few hundred Linden in their account when they quit playing? What about money taken out of the economy in the form of upload charges?

I spend several people’s stipend bonuses worth of linden on uploads every month… That money does not go back to the economy…
Jonas Pierterson
Dark Harlequin
Join date: 27 Dec 2005
Posts: 3,660
05-16-2006 13:33
From: Ranma Tardis
A remedy to removing stipends for premium members is to double the 512sq meters land allotment to 1024 sq meters. I can accept this action and think most "premium" members can as well.



Make it 1536. They already give 512 free, but 1024m2 more free makes the equivalent of the stipend if bought off the lindex. 1024 m2 + 512 m2 = 1536m2

edit: charges will still be pressed if this is done before my contract is fulfilled, neither party in a contract can alter the agreement without the others consent
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Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
05-16-2006 13:39
From: Gurgon Grumby
In this surplus scenario has SL population growth been factored in? What about money removed from the economy by; being left in inactive accounts? Players who still have a few hundred Linden in their account when they quit playing? What about money taken out of the economy in the form of upload charges?

I spend several people’s stipend bonuses worth of linden on uploads every month… That money does not go back to the economy…


Sinks have been factored in using the latest economic data available. Additionally, this projection assumes that there is NO growth in the amount of stipends paid out. We all know that the amount of stipends paid out will only increase, so the Linden Federal Deficit could end up being far worse than L$504 million.

The deficit is so big its mind-boggling.
ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
05-16-2006 13:44
From: Ranma Tardis
I dont think you are reading my messages. I paid for my stipend and it is part of my contract with Linden Labs.

Cutting back my stipend is breaking the contract with the premium members.



Then Linden Labs can adjust their policy so that when its time
to "Renew" your yearly contract, they redo the Stipend Payouts
to be "Adjustable" without warning. Then within 12/months, all
the Stipends being paid can be scaled back and not violate anybody's
contract.
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Lee Ludd
Scripted doors & windows
Join date: 16 May 2005
Posts: 243
05-16-2006 13:46
This is apparently an exercise in futility : nevertheless I will point it out one more time:

The number of Lindens in circulation has absolutely no meaning whatsoever without taking into account the size of the population.

It's the per-capita money supply that matters. Any economist understands this.

Pay no attention whatsoever to "economic experts" who do not understand, or who simply ignore, this basic fact. Such "experts" have apparently never taken Econ 101, or if they took it, they flunked it.

Admittedly, exactly how to measure the population base in SL is somewhat problematic. But it would be difficult to defend the proposition that the population base is static. Simple minded estimates using the data available seem to suggest that the population is growing faster than the money supply, and has been for the last year.
Jonas Pierterson
Dark Harlequin
Join date: 27 Dec 2005
Posts: 3,660
05-16-2006 13:50
From: ReserveBank Division
Then Linden Labs can adjust their policy so that when its time
to "Renew" your yearly contract, that redo the Stipend Payouts
to be "Adjustable" without warning. Then within 12/months, all
the Stipends being paid can be scaled back and not violate anybody's
contract.


Finally something that makes sense from RBD!

I will still be dropping premium unless they replace it with land though. I don't want to have to worry about how much is coming in, I want a set amount.
_____________________
Good freebies here and here

I must protest. I am not a merry man! - Warf, ST: TNG, episode: Qpid

You killed my father. Prepare to die. - Inigo Montoya, The Princess Bride

You killed My father. Your a-- is mine! - Hellboy
ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
05-16-2006 14:01
From: Jopsy Pendragon
Jamie / RBD -

So... let's plan on an eventual exchange rate of L$3,000 to US$1.

Tell me again... how is this going to destroy SecondLife?

So people spend the same US$ for bunches more L$. Stipends devalued to one tenth their current value... where's the problem?



Easy.... Imagine the backlash when somebody who spent
L$50,000 for a plot of land (US$158) today turns around when
the exchange rate is L$3500 and that same plot is now worth (US$14).
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Jopsy Pendragon
Perpetual Outsider
Join date: 15 Jan 2004
Posts: 1,906
05-16-2006 14:04
From: Jamie Bergman
The deficit is so big its mind-boggling.


Obviously it's not a problem for the U.S. Government! :rolleyes:

Seriously though, this is a tourist economy utterly dependent upon people from outside bringing their money TO SecondLife the rules are different.

Tier fees are fixed. The number of US$ consumers bring to SecondLife is growing.

A "bad tourist season" is a far larger threat to the SecondLife economy than the gradual slide in the exchange rate.

So what if they buy 300L per 1US... or 3000L per 1US, landlords/owners will need to charge enough to make tier, rentors will need to make rent payments... whether they do so by selling more, charging more or by buying the difference in cheaper L$'s... the market WILL follow.

And... with the more the exchange rate slides, the statistically less significant stipends become. So they continue to drive the exchange rate down.. wise up, don't hold onto L$'s presuming they'll hold value. Sell them off as you get them.

Honestly... there are more legitimate things to have irrational worries about. :)
Jopsy Pendragon
Perpetual Outsider
Join date: 15 Jan 2004
Posts: 1,906
05-16-2006 14:06
From: ReserveBank Division
Easy.... Imagine the backlash when somebody who spent
L$50,000 for a plot of land (US$158) today turns around when
the exchange rate is L$3500 and that same plot is now worth (US$14).


That's an incomplete point.

If the land is worth US$158... it's worth US$158.

Regardless of how many L$'s that works out to be.

Where is the problem?
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