Linden Dollar Moving Lower Against

I support ending Stipends. But I think it should be a
gradual reduction, not Shock Therapy.

Reduce the L$500 by L$50 every month for 10 months.
Reduce the L$50 by L$5 every month for 10 months.

This time next year, the population will have been
weened off Stipends and the health of the economy
will be 100x better.

Reduce monthly charges if you reduce stipend. I bought premium mostly for the stipend.

As for my demand for it is killing the economy. I don't care, I don't play the economy game. I pay for my stipend, if LL takes if from the market or from minting, I DON'T CARE.

If you kill the stipend you're going to see alot of premium users quit.. which kills LL and kills SL.

All I know is I pay for those lindens, and I'm going to keep my stipend -or- I'm going to keep my money.

You might not care about the economy, but there is enough money
pumped into SL to make many folks care about the economic health
of SL. Like the Land Barons LL has grown to depend on.

If the Land Barons can't turn a profit because the economy is out of
wack, then they won'r be buying new land for thousands of dollars.
That will then mean LL will be short when the Data Center Bill Arrives.
As a result, staff, services, etc will all be cut back. Making your wonderful
rose colored glasses a bit foggy.

Believe me, SL is big enough that the Almighty Dollar dictates SLs future,
not your dream of free Linden Dollars every Tuesday.

No dream of free Lindens here. I PAID for them already, remember?

And if you cut stipends to keep landbarons happy, the other premiums..not large landholders but massive numbers, willd rop off like rats from a sinking ship. The economy is fine, don't try to fix what isn't broken.

If you want to play the numbers game, go ahead, but leave my weekly paid for stipend alone (unless you increase it). If its drawn from the trading market all the mor epower. I -still- get what I paid for.

Alby? That you?

Actually, I've always believed, and still do, that if the land barons vanished tomorrow the economy will go right along just fine. LL is not dependant on the land barons. If they weren't around all the little people who now buy their land from the land barons would buy the same land from LL ... cheaper. That wouldn't effect LL since they rely more on monthly subscriptions and the same amount of land would still be around. Just cheaper for the little guy.

All land barons do is drive up the price of land.

right now you get 500 a week, so about 2000 a month. Roughly $7 USD worth.

How about making the stipend dependent on the current value of the $L.

So you get an amount based on what the value currently is.

$7 USD worth of $L per month. So if there is inflation, the amount being put into circulation will vary accordingly.

There is however one difference - they wouldn't be able to get the same prim allocation as they can on rental lots (unless LL reprogrammed biggish bits of the parcel system)

That I can agree to. I'm paying for it either way.

There ar epeople who paid for a lifetime contract though..and were promised 500/week. Bear that in mind.

Who is going to pump in US$23,000 to move that L$ higher?


L$273 / US$1.00 20 L$1,079,584
L$272 / US$1.00 38 L$2,033,285
L$271 / US$1.00 15 L$1,363,156
L$270 / US$1.00 27 L$2,031,172



Nobody? Like I said, it will be moving lower once again. All thanks
to the never ending glut of Linden Dollars being pumped into
the economy. All so Jonas can buy a few TShirts...

Not my fault if LL can't buy the stipend off the market, so don't go blaming me Stalin.

Its your fault, Mussolini .

These amounts have kept the lindex only steady the past few days or even a week. Right now it appears there is no glut. If there was, the market would respond back up to 280. I know your saying that the lindens keep handing out money to premiem members basically for free and if you didn't spend a thing you would make money after a whole year. Don't forget that if you did that, you would still have to pay 3.5% and the sale on the lindex too. Most people do spend money in game. Many people own land and need to pay tier. Many pay for uploads. Businesses need to spend a lot lindens on classifieds, uploads and in many cases a lot of land tier fees. This equation which equals out to 360 or whatever does not include the whole economic equation as a whole.
If you ask me, the lindex if fine and will probably be where it is at for a while or fall to around 270 during the weekend and doing its usualy slide up on Monday to 273 again. There is no indication that it will do a radical rise up to 290 or 300 in the next several weeks. It is also in the best interest to Lindens labs to keep the price where its at and not 300 or higher.
Also on a last note. The amounts listed above aren't that high. A few Sunday's ago, 5,000,000 Lindens at 280 were sold in a day. It is in my best interest to have the lindex go to 260 or 250, but I'm not hyping it up at all. I'll live with 270 or 280 or whatever.

Hey McGeeb:


You said something about the L$ going to L$270 or so back
on Feb 24th, 2006. I have a new flash for you.. You should have
listened to me, because I believe you are WRONG!!!!!!!

As of 12:00p PST, the L$ is at L$291 and is a LONG LONG
way away from L$270. Sucka!!!! next time listen to your Master.


L$291 / US$1.00 16 L$274,499
L$290 / US$1.00 8 L$1,620,834
L$289 / US$1.00 2 L$75,000
L$288 / US$1.00 15 L$535,917
L$287 / US$1.00 12 L$725,228
L$286 / US$1.00 12 L$399,856
L$285 / US$1.00 26 L$1,192,460
L$284 / US$1.00 16 L$1,031,092
L$283 / US$1.00 9 L$2,712,189
L$282 / US$1.00 11 L$271,506
L$281 / US$1.00 17 L$1,209,976
L$280 / US$1.00 44 L$2,359,784
L$279 / US$1.00 21 L$926,939
L$278 / US$1.00 21 L$4,776,500
L$277 / US$1.00 10 L$636,044
L$276 / US$1.00 7 L$58,704
L$275 / US$1.00 20 L$1,065,275
L$274 / US$1.00 14 L$1,103,881
L$273 / US$1.00 8 L$45,446
L$272 / US$1.00 8 L$269,355
L$271 / US$1.00 7 L$264,894
L$270 / US$1.00 19 L$1,486,001

Now lets see if my calculations are correct:


Feb 24th, 2006: L$270
Mar 24th, 2006: L$291
================
Down 8% since Feb06 (1 Month Ago)


Poor Mcgeeb, Jonas, and the rest of the non-believers..
I just feel for all the suckers who believed in your predictions.
Now its time for the masses to follow the truth Market Guru,
Reservebank Division..

8% per month. Not bad. Sounds like we're right on track for 375. Wake me up when we get there.

375 is your aim Shaun? Just asking to be clear, seriously

I think "aim" is a dangerous and loaded term.

Just for the record, yesterday's average rate (L$292.5/US$ or thereabouts) is within 2.5 standard deviations of what my model predicts (based on movement from March 21 to March 23). Not an overly crazy 2-day price movement. The day it makes a 7-sigma "stress test" movement (which in this case would have been a jump up to L$303.23/US$) is the day people should get ready to jump out of virtual windows...

(For the record, my model predicted an exchange rate of L$287.13 +/- 4.6 (95% CL) on March 23rd based on a calibration to the data Lawrence provided on March 8th and a March 21st average of L$287/US$).

Allow me to clarify Shaun

375 is where you expect to see the lindex exchange value eventually?

Well I'm not too sure if I want to comment on my own internal long-term predictions. When I'm off on a forecast of any timespan, someone like you jumps on me and says "ha ha ha, you were WRONG Shaun! I just feel SO GOOD about telling you that you were WRONG! ha ha ha ha ha! I WIN THE FORUMS!". Then when I'm right on, there's another type of person who jumps on me for being right in public due to my operation of a stock exchange.

So, you see, it's really a catch-22 for me to offer up my own internal forecasts for public consumption. Why should I play these games with you guys? If it would serve any useful purpose to the public, I would continue to share my forecasts, as I do in IMs from time to time.

I don't see them as useful on this forum for any purpose beyond opening myself up to attack though. I'm really only interested in discussing useful things here.

Put me down for L$371... That is the number at which all
Stipends will hit their break even value. This is the point where
the 1/yr Stipend Value of Premium Accounts and the US$ cost
of the account US$72 match up.

Anything below L$371 and the Stipends in effect cost more to
receive via the Premium Account than they would if you just had
a basic account and bought your L$ off the LindenX.

I would say the true bottom is L$371. Anything less is an oversold
condition, ripe for a rally.

You're forgetting that even with LindeX at 371, Uncle Philip is still getting a pretty good SHARE of the overall L$ market through stipends. Not that I'm giving a forecast here, but it might be worth revising yours based on this. Don't discount the pile-on effect just because the prices synchronize. I really don't even think the L$ is worth what LL sells it for, but I do feel that residents, rather than LL, should be the ones offering the best price.

Definitely one of your better posts, RBD.
I disagree with the 'ripe for a rally' bit, but the rest sounds logical.

I also anticipate the value to continue to slip, more because a higher than sustainable percentage of new players are trying to profit off of SecondLife and the resulting competition is making them undercut each other in the hopes of offsetting their tier costs.
If Linden Labs continues with the "make money here" campaign it will likely even push the value past $372.

--
Who was selling at L$300?
Maybe it was Govenor Linden cashing out his public land proceeds!!

Now you are talking Jopsy, you are alright by me..
The L$ is going in the toilet...