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Over 2,000,000 L$ at 300!!!!!

Charlton Cline
Sea Mist Association
Join date: 21 Jun 2005
Posts: 47
03-23-2006 09:27
I'm just enjoying the total hypocracy of the situation. So...it's not okay to manipulate the market in favor of the consumer, but is okay to try to manipulate the market in favor of big businesses and land barons...

Or like another phrase "Rob Peter (remove stipends, bonuses from the majority) to pay Paul (let the few benefit by removing the earnings of the majority).

Just my $2L (based on manipulation of the exchange rate)
Ghoti Nyak
καλλιστι
Join date: 7 Aug 2004
Posts: 2,078
03-23-2006 09:42
From: Shaun Altman
It's all gone now. If you don't mind sharing, who bought some, and how much did you buy? :) I bought about L$600,000.


I bought, but its for my own personal spending (shopping is like crack), not for resale after prices go back up. I only bought L$15000.

-Ghoti
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"Sometimes I believe that this less material life is our truer life, and that our vain presence on the terraqueous globe is itself the secondary or merely virtual phenomenon." ~ H.P. Lovecraft
ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
03-23-2006 09:42
Money Supply: The amount of money in the economy. Since the money supply is considered by some to be a critical element in determining economic activity, from time to time the financial markets place great importance on the Federal Reserve's reports of changes in the supply. For example, consistently large increases in the money supply can lead to future inflation.




And in Second Life we have exactly that. A never ending increase
in the Money Supply via Stipends. And to appease the people who
must have stipends, all the L$ collected from Sinks every week should
be divided by the population and dispersed accordingly. So the stipend
payouts are not "new" money, but redistributed "old" money. The division
could even be managed based on Premium vs. Non-Premium.

This effect would keep the money supply stable and allow the general
economic health of SL to dictate the proper valuation of the Linden Dollar.
_____________________
Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Join date: 11 Dec 2004
Posts: 1,011
03-23-2006 09:42
From: Desmond Shang
I saw about $L2.6M of it when it popped out about what, 10 hours ago was it? But... didn't touch it.

I have a stable content business and a stable land business. Becoming a day trader on the LindeX just doesn't appeal to me unless the rates are maybe... 350 in a 285 market.

Calculating the LindeX fee percentage, there was very little real money to be made off this, buying and reselling. In the few hundred dollar range, perhaps.

For me, sitting tight was the right thing to do. I'm not ever accidentally tipping my islands into the sea because I made a 'wrong bet' on a LindeX 'sure thing' and lost my reserves.

So... glad for those that made some money. I do wonder what possible benefit there was for someone to blow a few hundred USD like that. My suspicion: someone set up automated LindeX selling, a third party caught wind of the pattern and tried to manipulate the market during the automated sell-off time. Other than that, messing with the market is pretty futile, I think.


I can't speak for everyone who bought up some of this person's L$, but speaking personally, the absolute worst possible loss I'm prepared to accept on this trade is $8.03 US. If I'm right, I stand to gain $67.96 US. This return on my outlay beats any bank's annual return by quite a margin, in one day. While I'd of course agree that this upside pales dramatically in comparison to RL forex trades, the potential down side is a lot lower too! :)

I'm not too terribly worried about $8.03 US disrupting my finances in any discernable way. Besides which, I've certainly had 8 bucks worth of fun evaluating, trading and commenting on this situation, so any monetary gain is just gravy at this point. :)

Just my take on the whole thing. It's interesting how two people can always look at exactly the same set of circumstances and see them in two entirely different lights. For me, sitting tight was definately not the right thing to do.
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Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
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Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Join date: 11 Dec 2004
Posts: 1,011
03-23-2006 09:44
From: Ghoti Nyak
I bought, but its for my own personal spending (shopping is like crack), not for resale after prices go back up. I only bought L$15000.

-Ghoti


It makes no difference if it was bought for shopping or resale. A great deal is a great deal! :) I'm glad to hear you spotted this and got some more bang for your shopping buck.

Who else was buying up this L$? :)
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Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Metaverse Investment Fund
Jason Foo
Old Timer
Join date: 6 Feb 2004
Posts: 105
03-23-2006 09:46
From: ZATZAi Asturias

I think, if we, the players really, truly want to effect teh value of the Linden, we have to look to the great market crashes and slumps in US history. The government acted in those cases by getting the banks to do certain things, though I would need to research what these were again as I have since forgotten, though in our case, there would be no government intervention. We do however, still have the equivalent of banks, and that is the large and medium sized players (financially).

Getting everyone to work together, without forcing them, might proove difficult. As I recall, the government had to force the hands of the banks to achieve its agenda in RL past.



This is a good idea, but as I will point out, there are no real banks in SL that would make any economical difference. What we need is for people to start saving their money, and give them a reason to value the L$. A good way to do this is to have LL open a SL federal reserve where players can put money away in a savings account that will gain interest. this will temproarily remove money from circulation, and stabalize the economy. I know if I were able to put L$ away at say 2% interest/week, I would keep all my money there, and only cash out to US$ when I need it. Right now, I cash out all the time to US$ because I have no other reason to hold onto it!
Now if we use interest money as a new way of trckling new L$ into the economy, we can easily remove stipends and dwell money.

feedback?
Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Join date: 11 Dec 2004
Posts: 1,011
03-23-2006 09:47
From: ReserveBank Division
Money Supply: The amount of money in the economy. Since the money supply is considered by some to be a critical element in determining economic activity, from time to time the financial markets place great importance on the Federal Reserve's reports of changes in the supply. For example, consistently large increases in the money supply can lead to future inflation.




And in Second Life we have exactly that. A never ending increase
in the Money Supply via Stipends. And to appease the people who
must have stipends, all the L$ collected from Sinks every week should
be divided by the population and dispersed accordingly. So the stipend
payouts are not "new" money, but redistributed "old" money. The division
could even be managed based on Premium vs. Non-Premium.

This effect would keep the money supply stable and allow the general
economic health of SL to dictate the proper valuation of the Linden Dollar.


But.. then we have massive population growth, and massive economic growth, with zero increase in the currency float. Sure, the resulting L$ valuation skyrocket TO THE MOON would be great for people who have a lot of L$ today. It would be very bad for the economy as a whole, though. Everything is a balancing act.

It is SO CRITICAL that systems and institutions evolve to better perform this balancing act.
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Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Metaverse Investment Fund
Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Join date: 11 Dec 2004
Posts: 1,011
03-23-2006 09:51
From: Jason Foo
This is a good idea, but as I will point out, there are no real banks in SL that would make any economical difference. What we need is for people to start saving their money, and give them a reason to value the L$. A good way to do this is to have LL open a SL federal reserve where players can put money away in a savings account that will gain interest. this will temproarily remove money from circulation, and stabalize the economy. I know if I were able to put L$ away at say 2% interest/week, I would keep all my money there, and only cash out to US$ when I need it. Right now, I cash out all the time to US$ because I have no other reason to hold onto it!
Now if we use interest money as a new way of trckling new L$ into the economy, we can easily remove stipends and dwell money.

feedback?


Remove the term "LL" from this post, substitute it with the term "residents", find a way to make it work, and I think you'll be onto something.
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Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Metaverse Investment Fund
Jason Foo
Old Timer
Join date: 6 Feb 2004
Posts: 105
03-23-2006 10:00
From: Shaun Altman
Remove the term "LL" from this post, substitute it with the term "residents", find a way to make it work, and I think you'll be onto something.


I have seen resident after resident try to open banks in SL. honestly, I don't trust anyone with my money unless its LL. I want LL to run the bank, hence the term "FEDERAL RESERVE BANK". Do you honestly think any resident is trustworthy enough to run a bank, and even give interest? I am probably one of the most honest and trustworthy people here in SL, and I wouldn't trust myself if I were some other person. So tell me how a resident run bank would be better than a LL run bank?
Desmond Shang
Guvnah of Caledon
Join date: 14 Mar 2005
Posts: 5,250
03-23-2006 10:01
From: Shaun Altman
I can't speak for everyone who bought up some of this person's L$, but speaking personally, the absolute worst possible loss I'm prepared to accept on this trade is $8.03 US. If I'm right, I stand to gain $67.96 US. This return on my outlay beats any bank's annual return by quite a margin, in one day. While I'd of course agree that this upside pales dramatically in comparison to RL forex trades, the potential down side is a lot lower too! :)

I'm not too terribly worried about $8.03 US disrupting my finances in any discernable way. Besides which, I've certainly had 8 bucks worth of fun evaluating, trading and commenting on this situation, so any monetary gain is just gravy at this point. :)

Just my take on the whole thing. It's interesting how two people can always look at exactly the same set of circumstances and see them in two entirely different lights. For me, sitting tight was definately not the right thing to do.


Quite true Shaun, for you (and maybe most) people it would be a shrewd move.

I don't watch the LindeX as closely as many; I do pay attention to it but don't have the day-to-day experience that you and many others do.

Would I ever mistake a real market correction for a sure thing? Odds are, I'd mess up such a bet long before you would. And I don't think I have nearly the reserves that you do to cover the bet (yet! :) )

Enjoy your winnings, the market seems to have recovered as you predicted and you deserve them.
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Steampunk Victorian, Well-Mannered Caledon!
Fade Languish
I just build stuff...
Join date: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 1,760
03-23-2006 10:02
From: Jason Foo
I have seen resident after resident try to open banks in SL. honestly, I don't trust anyone with my money unless its LL. I want LL to run the bank, hence the term "FEDERAL RESERVE BANK". Do you honestly think any resident is trustworthy enough to run a bank, and even give interest? I am probably one of the most honest and trustworthy people here in SL, and I wouldn't trust myself if I were some other person. So tell me how a resident run bank would be better than a LL run bank?


There are residents I would have faith in. For some, their reputation is more valuable to them than money, it is their reputation they trade on.
Jason Foo
Old Timer
Join date: 6 Feb 2004
Posts: 105
03-23-2006 10:11
From: Fade Languish
There are residents I would have faith in. For some, their reputation is more valuable to them than money, it is their reputation they trade on.


Reputation is fine, I'm just saying we need something with no risk of someone just taking all your money and running away. I don't care how good of a reputation someone has, I wouldn't give them my money. We need something that EVERYONE can trust and rely on to be there. LL can do it. they have an economist now, lets put him to work!
Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Join date: 11 Dec 2004
Posts: 1,011
03-23-2006 10:13
From: Fade Languish
There are residents I would have faith in. For some, their reputation is more valuable to them than money, it is their reputation they trade on.


Same here.
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Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Metaverse Investment Fund
Tya Fallingbridge
Proud Prim Whore
Join date: 28 Aug 2003
Posts: 790
03-23-2006 10:15
From: Fade Languish
I agree it's possible, this looks and smells like manipulation to me.



Has anyone ever even thought for a moment that someone may be wanting to cash out their lindens quick? Maybe they need the money?
_____________________

Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Join date: 11 Dec 2004
Posts: 1,011
03-23-2006 10:17
From: Desmond Shang
Quite true Shaun, for you (and maybe most) people it would be a shrewd move.

I don't watch the LindeX as closely as many; I do pay attention to it but don't have the day-to-day experience that you and many others do.

Would I ever mistake a real market correction for a sure thing? Odds are, I'd mess up such a bet long before you would. And I don't think I have nearly the reserves that you do to cover the bet (yet! :) )

Enjoy your winnings, the market seems to have recovered as you predicted and you deserve them.


Well I can't enjoy my spoils just yet. The price hasn't come up to my target. I'm a little bit higher up than what others seemed to post at.

We're definately well outside the realm where I'm going to lose my 8 bucks, unless something odd happens. I'd like to see it hit my target price though. :)
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Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Metaverse Investment Fund
Fade Languish
I just build stuff...
Join date: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 1,760
03-23-2006 10:22
From: Jason Foo
Reputation is fine, I'm just saying we need something with no risk of someone just taking all your money and running away. I don't care how good of a reputation someone has, I wouldn't give them my money. We need something that EVERYONE can trust and rely on to be there. LL can do it. they have an economist now, lets put him to work!


There's other factors to consider. A private institution may inspire more faith in me, they are often more efficient and flexible in their business than 'government' institutions. You may also not be dealing with an individual, but a group of people, which would add security.
I might even have more faith in them than LL. They're prone to sudden changes of direction.
I would also add, that for an institution to pay you interest, they must be participating in the economy to make that interest. They would have to be investing your money somewhere. Do we really want LL competing with its' customers?
Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Join date: 11 Dec 2004
Posts: 1,011
03-23-2006 10:26
From: Tya Fallingbridge
Has anyone ever even thought for a moment that someone may be wanting to cash out their lindens quick? Maybe they need the money?


I often think of that when I see L$10,000 or something posted well above the current price. I feel sorry for those people, who wouldn't be losing money due to their lack of knowledge if LL would provide a more robust market with buy orders. When I see MILLIONS for well above the current price though, along with orders for L$900 at various levels below it, and a lot of the price points totally empty, I don't think of that.

Instead, I think of one person, or a small group of people, trying to make the L$ appear to have crashed. Let this be a lesson to them! :) Fortunately this lesson didn't cost too much. :)

Whoever you are, you accomplished nothing except for losing a few hundred USD. If you remain unconvinced that the free market will resist your attempts to crash it, please try with a few thousand USD value differential next time.
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Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Metaverse Investment Fund
Fade Languish
I just build stuff...
Join date: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 1,760
03-23-2006 10:28
From: Tya Fallingbridge
Has anyone ever even thought for a moment that someone may be wanting to cash out their lindens quick? Maybe they need the money?


Yes I did think it... it was that little trail of breadcrumbs leading to that price that suggested other possibilities.
Tya Fallingbridge
Proud Prim Whore
Join date: 28 Aug 2003
Posts: 790
03-23-2006 10:28
I normally butt out of the economy forum, but i need to butt in. I SELL my lindens. Not for you, not for pleasure not to bring down the economy. I do it to support my sim and other expenses I have online, and recently cause I am going through a separtation and needed the money to move out. I am fortuate the I make money from SL. I am sick of you people whinning.. OMG ITs gonna crash.. etc.. blah blah. People will chose what they want to do with their earnings. NOT YOU. If someone chooses to sell their lindens at a low value compared to others, thats their perogative. NONE of your business. You people must have to much time on your hands to sit and watch a farkin gaming market all day. Get a life.
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Introvert Petunia
over 2 billion posts
Join date: 11 Sep 2004
Posts: 2,065
03-23-2006 10:33
From: someone
I have seen resident after resident try to open banks in SL. honestly, I don't trust anyone with my money unless its LL. I want LL to run the bank, hence the term "FEDERAL RESERVE BANK". Do you honestly think any resident is trustworthy enough to run a bank, and even give interest? I am probably one of the most honest and trustworthy people here in SL, and I wouldn't trust myself if I were some other person. So tell me how a resident run bank would be better than a LL run bank?
Resident run banks simply cannot work in Second Life.
Rockwell Maltz
Registered User
Join date: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 34
03-23-2006 10:39
From: someone
Whoever you are, you accomplished nothing except for losing a few hundred USD. If you remain unconvinced that the free market will resist your attempts to crash it, please try with a few thousand USD value differential next time.


::smokin' cigar::
Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Join date: 11 Dec 2004
Posts: 1,011
03-23-2006 10:41
From: Tya Fallingbridge
I normally butt out of the economy forum, but i need to butt in. I SELL my lindens. Not for you, not for pleasure not to bring down the economy. I do it to support my sim and other expenses I have online, and recently cause I am going through a separtation and needed the money to move out. I am fortuate the I make money from SL. I am sick of you people whinning.. OMG ITs gonna crash.. etc.. blah blah. People will chose what they want to do with their earnings. NOT YOU. If someone chooses to sell their lindens at a low value compared to others, thats their perogative. NONE of your business. You people must have to much time on your hands to sit and watch a farkin gaming market all day. Get a life.


Who's whining? I bought a lot of it. :)
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Shaun Altman
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Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Join date: 11 Dec 2004
Posts: 1,011
03-23-2006 10:45
From: Rockwell Maltz
::smokin' cigar::


I wouldn't smoke your victory cigar yet if I were you. We're back at 290, with nothing at 289. A fascinating development! :)
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Shaun Altman
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Ricky Zamboni
Private citizen
Join date: 4 Jun 2004
Posts: 1,080
03-23-2006 11:01
Back at GOM, we had a few people who were interested in testing the resilience of the market by engaging in what would be considered "unusual" trading patterns. This could well be an example of someone performing such an experiment. For the cost of a couple of hundred dollars, it's actually pretty interesting to see how the group behaves to such a shock.
Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Join date: 11 Dec 2004
Posts: 1,011
03-23-2006 11:04
From: Ricky Zamboni
Back at GOM, we had a few people who were interested in testing the resilience of the market by engaging in what would be considered "unusual" trading patterns. This could well be an example of someone performing such an experiment. For the cost of a couple of hundred dollars, it's actually pretty interesting to see how the group behaves to such a shock.


Perhaps. Were you the L$ seller, by the way? :)
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