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L$ falling like a BRICK!! L$313 / $1 USD

Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Join date: 11 Dec 2004
Posts: 1,011
05-12-2006 05:04
From: mcgeeb Gupte
I believe it will be back down to 305 this weekend because all amounts are under 1 million and unless there is a big chunk over 1 million placed 305 or lower, then I would bet that it would be 305. This is a lot of panic selling. I was almost tempted to buy at 318, 319 or 320, but even if it went down to 300, it wouldn't be much profit and too much of a big risk indeed. Too bad that there is such a big charge by LL (3.5%).


I'm going to start buying if people continue panicing, but like you, not at 320. I don't think there's any reason to BE panicing at this point, though, so I'd like to pick up some of this dirt cheap L$ if it gets to a point where I can make an acceptable profit on it.
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Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Metaverse Investment Fund
Svar Beckersted
Registered User
Join date: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 783
05-12-2006 06:09
The first data I have gathered this morning indicates that the buying is picking up and if the selling doesn't exceed 8 million Linden today the immediate crisis is over for now. The Linden should begin to increase in value and with luck the exchonge rate will be below 310 to 1 by the end of the day.
ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
05-12-2006 06:14
From: Keiki Lemieux
That's a pretty thin panic stack... in other words, based on how much is available at different prices, I'm guessing it will be back at 305 by Saturday night.




Thats what they said when it was L$280 and folks proclaimed
the L$ would be back to L$270 by the weekend..

Accept the fact, the L$ is going down the toilet...
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ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
05-12-2006 06:16
From: mcgeeb Gupte
I will be laughing at everyone who is selling at 318 to 1 when this weekend it will be back down to 305 to 1.




Hahahahah... Don't get me started.. You know your prediction
models never pan out... Hahahahah....

If we listened to you, we'd still be waiting for the run back to
the L$270s.. Lucky some folks listen to the Ultimate RBD Guru
and sold at L$270 instead of holding out for more and ending up
with L$315....
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ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
05-12-2006 06:20
From: Mad Wombat
I don't think that LL would dare to do that. It is in their interest to have a stable currency. Such action would lead to a further fall of the exchange rate, which would scare a lot of the active users away from SL. This would be suicidal for the company!
We should have a little bit more faith in LL.




If LL is motivated to have a "stable" currency. Then can you
please explain why the L$ has fallen 20% since Oct 2005?

Point to some action that LL has undertaken to curb the decline in
the Linden Dollar? From what I've seen, they've increased Stipend
Outflows FAR BEYOND the ability for Sinks to make a difference.
And now they are talking about additional L$ sales to the public
on top of Stipends? That will make problems even worse...

So please show me where LL has worked to stabilize the L$?
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Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Join date: 11 Dec 2004
Posts: 1,011
05-12-2006 07:04
From: ReserveBank Division
If LL is motivated to have a "stable" currency. Then can you
please explain why the L$ has fallen 20% since Oct 2005?

Point to some action that LL has undertaken to curb the decline in
the Linden Dollar? From what I've seen, they've increased Stipend
Outflows FAR BEYOND the ability for Sinks to make a difference.
And now they are talking about additional L$ sales to the public
on top of Stipends? That will make problems even worse...

So please show me where LL has worked to stabilize the L$?


No problem. They're eliminating dwell payments, which will cut currency inflow by around 10%. In all of your posts, you utterly fail to keep in mind that the economy itself is growing and flourishing, and of course requires a larger currency pool because of this. It's just that there's a bit too much additional currency flowing in.

A 10% reduction is pretty close to what I think is the right number too, and LL has additional data that I don't, which would allow them to pinpoint what is needed even better than any resident could. I think their decision to target dwell is indicative of a sound economic policy, in general. If they're looking to stabalize the rate around 300, they've hit the nail on the head with this reduction. I wouldn't go long looking for 250, though.

With all of this said, I'm NOT thrilled that Linden Lab will be competing with me to sell currency on LindeX, REGARDLESS of the source of that currency. All concerned residents should email [email]philip@lindenlab.com[/email] and JUST SAY NO TO COMPETING WITH LINDEN LAB TO SELL YOUR CURRENCY. There is LIMITED BUYING POWER available, and LL should NOT be putting the squeeze on your liquidity!

Please note that LL is not (to my knowledge) currently selling any currency on LindeX, so it is NOT time to panic! The prudent course of action is to SEND THOSE EMAILS and then sit tight and wait on the official response from Linden Lab.
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Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Metaverse Investment Fund
ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
05-12-2006 07:10
Email to Philip is like talking to a Brick Wall. His Ego is too big
to accept reasonable ideas from anybody but himself.

Its always going to be Philip's way or the highway..
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Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Join date: 11 Dec 2004
Posts: 1,011
05-12-2006 07:12
From: ReserveBank Division
Email to Philip is like talking to a Brick Wall. His Ego is too big
to accept reasonable ideas from anybody but himself.

Its always going to be Philip's way or the highway..


Don't be silly. Without residents, Linden Lab would go broke.
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Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Metaverse Investment Fund
Introvert Petunia
over 2 billion posts
Join date: 11 Sep 2004
Posts: 2,065
05-12-2006 07:16
From: someone
Don't be silly. Without residents, Linden Lab would go broke.
Even with them, they ain't doing so hot.
Hiro Queso
503less
Join date: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2,753
05-12-2006 07:18
From: Shaun Altman
Don't be silly. Without residents, Linden Lab would go broke.


Linden Lab also know that it's only a minority that would actually leave over a principle. ;)
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ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
05-12-2006 07:20
From: Shaun Altman
Don't be silly. Without residents, Linden Lab would go broke.




Actually, they are broke. They don't make a profit, they
are living on "investment" money. Once the well runs dry,
LL is doomed.
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Mad Wombat
Six Stringz Owner
Join date: 21 Jan 2006
Posts: 373
05-12-2006 07:24
From: Shaun Altman
Don't be silly. Without residents, Linden Lab would go broke.


That's right. It is simply not that simple to find an acceptable solution to the currency problem. You have witnessed how many people were ranting about the dwell removal. LL has to find solutions which won't piss too many people off and THAT's the biggest problem.

You cannot simply cut the stipend or add/increase sinks because people are always complaining.
Surreal Farber
Cat Herder
Join date: 5 Feb 2004
Posts: 2,059
05-12-2006 07:24
From: Jonquille Noir
Oh for fuck's sake, take your panic creation system and stuff it up your pie hole.


I love you Jonq. :D
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Kevn Klein
God is Love!
Join date: 5 Nov 2004
Posts: 3,422
Prediction
05-12-2006 07:30
Sunday night the rate will be $L300 per $US1. Buy low, sell high I always say. :)
Maxx Monde
Registered User
Join date: 14 Nov 2003
Posts: 1,848
05-12-2006 07:31
From: ReserveBank Division
Actually, they are broke. They don't make a profit, they
are living on "investment" money. Once the well runs dry,
LL is doomed.


So, theoretically, when (and if) Linden Lab ceases to be, do you burrow down into the mud and hibernate? Or is it off to the next economically-minded game to prognosticate its downfall?

Just looking for the pattern here, since you really don't have much to say except "Its all going down man, game over, GAME OVER!".

Must be an easy job, too bad it doesn't pay well :)
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ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
05-12-2006 07:32
From: Mad Wombat
That's right. It is simply not that simple to find an acceptable solution to the currency problem. You have witnessed how many people were ranting about the dwell removal. LL has to find solutions which won't piss too many people off and THAT's the biggest problem.

You cannot simply cut the stipend or add/increase sinks because people are always complaining.




Linden Labs should have never created a "fixed" rate stipend payout.
It should be adjustable according to the market and some metric.
Then LL can add or subtract the stipends depending on the eocnomy.

If the economy is slow, they increase the stipends. If the economy is
hot, they cut back on the stipends. But a fixed rate of L$500 or L$50 is
just terrible. Fixed anything in a changing economy is always a terrible
policy.
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ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
05-12-2006 07:34
From: Maxx Monde
So, theoretically, when (and if) Linden Lab ceases to be, do you burrow down into the mud and hibernate? Or is it off to the next economically-minded game to prognosticate its downfall?

Just looking for the pattern here, since you really don't have much to say except "Its all going down man, game over, GAME OVER!".

Must be an easy job, too bad it doesn't pay well :)




Sure beats saying "Don't worry, it will get better. Linden Labs is
looking out for us SLers" and then week after week it gets worse...

Must suck to feel like you've been foresaken when you could have
listen to reasonable advice and acted accordingly.
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Maximillion Grant
Registered User
Join date: 29 Jul 2005
Posts: 172
05-12-2006 07:37
From: ReserveBank Division
Actually, they are broke. They don't make a profit, they
are living on "investment" money. Once the well runs dry,
LL is doomed.


This post is a lot funnier when read with a Vincent Price accent. Try it!
ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
05-12-2006 07:44
From: ReserveBank Division
Actually, they are broke. They don't make a profit, they
are living on "investment" money. Once the well runs dry,
LL is doomed.



'Second Life' scores $11 million in funding
By Daniel Terdiman
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
Published: March 28, 2006, 12:00 AM PST
http://news.com.com/Second+Life+scores+11+million+in+funding/2100-1043_3-6054598.html?tag=nefd.top


Linden Lab, the publisher of the popular virtual world "Second Life," announced Tuesday an $11 million round of funding led by Globespan Capital Partners.

The new funding, which comes on the heels of an $8 million round in October 2004, came from Globespan as well as Amazon.com founder Jeff Bezos, Lotus founder Mitch Kapor, the Omidyar Network and Catamount Ventures.

"Second Life" is one of today's most talked-about virtual worlds, and currently has more than 165,000 users. It is an open-ended "metaverse" that allows anyone to join and participate for free and to create and own any kind of clothing, vehicles, buildings or other objects at no cost. The company makes its money by charging players use fees for land they buy and build on.

For now, the company isn't profitable, and it's not clear when it will be, said Catherine Smith, Linden Lab's director of marketing. However, she told CNET News.com that Linden Lab plans to use its new funding for aggressive international expansion, as well as for hiring intended to boost its infrastructure.

And while "Second Life" is on many people's lips at any gathering of video game industry professionals, one thing is clear: It is not always an easy world for new users to get into, and its graphics are not up to the level of competitors like "World of Warcraft" and "There."

Still, virtual world experts are high on "Second Life" and have mostly been willing to look past its shortcomings because of its members' interesting social behavior.

And with its new funding, the company may now be able to address the look and feel of "Second Life" and quiet its critics in this area.

"My guess is they're looking to expand to the next level," said Ron Meiners, an expert in virtual worlds and online games. "They've done some very innovative development thus far, and this means they can both improve their infrastructure and prepare to scale to a higher level of membership."

Even though "Second Life" is now hovering around 165,000 users, it has been on a growth spurt. Still, its membership pales in comparison with games like Blizzard Entertainment's "World of Warcraft," which has around 6 million users, each of whom pays $15 a month to play.

In any case, Smith said Linden Lab's goal is to grow from its current 70 employees to at least 100, and to produce new, German- and Japanese-language versions.

But to Meiners, the real importance of the new funding round is the ability it gives Linden Lab to make "Second Life" more accessible to more people.

"The complexity of the interface has been confusing for many people coming to 'Second Life,'" he said, "so this gives them a chance to consider redesigning for a much larger customer base."
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Maxx Monde
Registered User
Join date: 14 Nov 2003
Posts: 1,848
05-12-2006 07:45
From: ReserveBank Division
Sure beats saying "Don't worry, it will get better. Linden Labs is
looking out for us SLers" and then week after week it gets worse...

Must suck to feel like you've been foresaken when you could have
listen to reasonable advice and acted accordingly.


Hey sure, I'll bite -- I don't see you championing for a positive outcome. Where is the massive wealth of your economic knowledge put to bear on the problem? Where are the suggestions of concrete actions that can be taken, beyond "Reduce the supply of L$"?

Trolls are usually labeled as trolls because they contribute nothing, but stir up the members of the forums they inhabit.

What is your purpose? Snarky remarks about L$? Is that all RBD is about?

I really would like to know.
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ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
05-12-2006 07:50
From: Maxx Monde
Hey sure, I'll bite -- I don't see you championing for a positive outcome. Where is the massive wealth of your economic knowledge put to bear on the problem? Where are the suggestions of concrete actions that can be taken, beyond "Reduce the supply of L$"?

Trolls are usually labeled as trolls because they contribute nothing, but stir up the members of the forums they inhabit.

What is your purpose? Snarky remarks about L$? Is that all RBD is about?

I really would like to know.




Pay Attention.. I've talked about many solutions to fix the problem
besides just the Money Supply.

* Corporation Creation in SL with Stocks/Bonds/etc
* A Stock Market Exchange to generate Linden Dollar Denominated Assets
* Converting Prims into Commodities to create baseline cost for Goods.
* Reduce Land Supply to force high vaulations in real estate

The list goes on and on.. Far from being a Troll.. The name callers
are just too ignorant to understand. So its easier to throughout a name
than debate the possible avenues to fix the economy.
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Keiki Lemieux
I make HUDDLES
Join date: 8 Jul 2005
Posts: 1,490
05-12-2006 08:03
From: Svar Beckersted
One of the fundemental problems is the lack of buying in the last two days. The 6,692,582 Linden sold on Wednesday is easy to explain because of the closure of SL for 5 hours. The 6,840,463 Linden sold on Thursday is harder to explain except buyers may be waiting for an even better rate. The reduced buying has pushed the Linden to the present lows and if the increased buying seen on weekends includes any delayed buying then we could see 2 days of over 10 million sold and the Linden again trading at 305 to 1 as Keiki states above.

Day by day volumes don't really mean much as trends I would think. Look at the history volume history of the last 90 days. It's extrememly irratic day by day. I think you need to look at something like a 7 day moving average. Still the volumes have been low the last few days, and that has been disappointing.

In any case, from Thursday night to Saturday night there tends to be a lot more Linden sold then new orders can compensate for, causing a rise in the Linden. 305 might be a bit optimistic, but the Linden should rise in value a bit this weekend. The real problem is that come Monday when the new sell orders come in, we will be right back in the 309-313 range.
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Maxx Monde
Registered User
Join date: 14 Nov 2003
Posts: 1,848
05-12-2006 08:10
From: ReserveBank Division
Pay Attention.. I've talked about many solutions to fix the problem
besides just the Money Supply.

* Corporation Creation in SL with Stocks/Bonds/etc
* A Stock Market Exchange to generate Linden Dollar Denominated Assets
* Converting Prims into Commodities to create baseline cost for Goods.
* Reduce Land Supply to force high vaulations in real estate

The list goes on and on.. Far from being a Troll.. The name callers
are just too ignorant to understand. So its easier to throughout a name
than debate the possible avenues to fix the economy.


Attention paid.

However, only a few of those options are readily possible. You can create a corporation (I have, in RL) and do what you want with that, but it isn't formally recognized by the system. (Informally, groups I suppose.)

Shaun I believe has a stock market system in a sense, he's issued stock in his organization. (Which, actually I could do as an LLC, and it was a partial consideration when I formed it earlier this past month.) You could take initiative and do the same things, is what I'm saying - lead by example, eh?

Prims to commodities...that implies some kind of mechanism to make them consumable, things 'break' and such and need to be replaced. Not sure how that could be engineered without people getting a bit pissed off, they're used to eternal digital copies already. Any alternatives to this?

Reduce land supply -- could be done, but is heavily dependant on demand and Real Life server racking costs, bandwidth, physical space (I don't know how many colocation facilities they have now...two?), etc.. Costs could drive it over what is worth actually creating the land to begin with. There isn't a lot of 'free' in that cycle, people think LL can snap a finger and have it all ready, but there are RL costs associated with it.

So....anything else? And more specifically, what is *your* plan for helping out? I'm just giving you benefit of the doubt here. Prove us wrong, pull the corporation plan out of your pocket and show us how you're going to pitch in.
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Rael Riel
Registered User
Join date: 22 Apr 2006
Posts: 31
05-12-2006 08:21
How does a buyer get this amazing L$313 rate? Whenever I buy, I ususall receive right around L$300. Granted I just hit the buy key in the top right, and am not a big spender, but just last nite bought about $10.00 worth for a $302/1 rate
Perwin Rambler
Registered User
Join date: 24 Mar 2005
Posts: 152
I may be wrong but..
05-12-2006 08:33
LL sold L before if not briefly. They wanted the value to be around
4 USD per 1000 L or 250 L / 1 USD

no one is loosing any L as they are setting the Sell price, therefore they must be comfortable with it. I myself would like to see the price back down at around 280 L / 1 USD but who knows if it will go to there.

I hope LL is still looking to try to maintain the L value at around the 4 USD per 1000 L. I never seen anything stateing how or at what values they will be selling at. (if they sell)

That being said, as long as SL covers my teir then I am fine with any prices that become the norm. (Though I wouldn't mind getting some extra in return from time to time)

it may be apparent but I have no financial training or knack. just stateing what I feel. Either the prices will drop to the point people stop selling it any lower or people are out to see what kind of damage they can do. in the end it doesn't matter too much, at least for me as my living comes from another source.
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