Land Value in SL- Will it Implode soon?
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Prokofy Neva
Virtualtor
Join date: 28 Sep 2004
Posts: 3,698
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05-02-2005 11:13
From: someone That day has come and it hurts. Been slashing prices already  Anshe, um, I feel you pain. I'm sure there are little compensations, however. Like that day you bought about 6k in Alope for a mere $58 US on the auction -- for mature! next to a telehub sim! after Buster Peel's land dump in the NC, after a number of us stopped buying on the auction due to the telehub confusion and three-card monte, after Ryan Linden helped cause alarm in the auction and it dropped to $2/meter. Good work! And...when you resold it to me for something like $200 US, within days of getting it from Governor Linden and before you even put it up for sale -- a price which was still a great bargain for near-telehub land -- that must have made up for all those slashings you had to do at places like Wixom! I just wanted to put in that little anecdote from the annals of SL Real Estate History lest anybody get too tiery eyed at your pain in buying $13,000 worth of private islands, having a stampede to them, having Lindens crimp you a bit in the advertising, having people like me still stump for you in the forums 
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Kismet Karuna
Tosser
Join date: 5 Jun 2004
Posts: 195
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05-02-2005 11:27
From: Anshe Chung My personal opinion is that those who invest in this virtual space early on and helped it grow should be rewarded. ZOMFG!!!11!1! FIC!
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Jesse Brearly
Registered User
Join date: 20 Mar 2005
Posts: 234
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05-02-2005 11:33
From: Kismet Karuna ZOMFG!!!11!1!
FIC! Ok, I know this is off topic.. but please amuse me... I see this "FIC" term thrown all over the place... What does FIC standfor? Not just its name but what is the meaning behind the name and term?
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Eboni Khan
Misanthrope
Join date: 17 Mar 2004
Posts: 2,133
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05-02-2005 12:03
FIC is some busllshit Prokofy made up to further divide the community while adding nothing positive to the community herself.
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Lindar Lehane
registered user
Join date: 13 Mar 2005
Posts: 272
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05-02-2005 13:02
From: Eboni Khan FIC is some busllshit Prokofy made up to further divide the community while adding nothing positive to the community herself. I think it's "Feted Inner Core", Jesse. The idea is that the Lindens have a special relationship with, and give preferential treatment to, and listen more carefully to, a small group of players who joined SL in the early days and thus know the higher management team from when few people were invloved, as players or management. They were all taking a risk together, and the result was a natural camaraderie. I think thats the idea. It would be surprising if it weren't true at all. We're talking about human beings here. But it obviously has a potential for huge exaggeration, and the building up of all sorts of paranoid conspiracy theories. Lots of fun arguing over who is in, who is out, etc etc. Well, you did ask, lol.
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Jesse Brearly
Registered User
Join date: 20 Mar 2005
Posts: 234
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05-02-2005 13:22
From: Lindar Lehane I think it's "Feted Inner Core", Jesse. The idea is that the Lindens have a special relationship with, and give preferential treatment to, and listen more carefully to, a small group of players who joined SL in the early days and thus know the higher management team from when few people were invloved, as players or management. They were all taking a risk together, and the result was a natural camaraderie.
I think thats the idea. It would be surprising if it weren't true at all. We're talking about human beings here. But it obviously has a potential for huge exaggeration, and the building up of all sorts of paranoid conspiracy theories. Lots of fun arguing over who is in, who is out, etc etc.
Well, you did ask, lol. Thanks, that explains things a bit. I agree, while I am sure there is a "FIC" how much power they have is questionable. I am sure they have respect with LL but LL is still a business and must adhere to the majority to succeed. Before any rumors start I would like to make it clear I am not FIC *wink* lol
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Dnate Mars
Lost
Join date: 27 Jan 2004
Posts: 1,309
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The value of Land done with math
05-02-2005 14:15
If you make some basic assumptions, you can figure where the land prices will end up. If you consider tier payments to be the same for the same amount of land you own on an island or on the mainland, then the only other cost will be the land itself. The only difference between the tier payments is who you pay it to. If you assume an exchange rate of 4USD/1kL$, then you can look at an island as a cost of 245000L$ (980USD*(1000L$/4USD)). The amount of land that you get on an island is 65,526sqm of land. If you do a cost per sqm, you get an island costing about 3.74 per sqm. The land value in SL should be about this mark, as a worst case scenario.
Now, I think that mainland will still be more valued then an island, or group of island, because it is the main part of the grid, it is where most people start and stay. Also, I think the price of the island plots will be more because there is a lot of risk involved in owning an island. You will have to pay the $195 for each sim you own, where or not you have your land leased. All the land on an island will not be for sale, either. You will have to have land for the telehub, plus any public right of way that there might be. You also have to worry about people scamming the land and land management. With all these factors taken into account, I can not see the average land value going much below 5L$/sqm. I may be completely off base with my logic, but to me this seems like the most reasonable assumptions.
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Chip Midnight
ate my baby!
Join date: 1 May 2003
Posts: 10,231
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05-02-2005 14:22
From: Anshe Chung Chip, the cheapest way to play this game is to rent. But it is part of the immersion, the feeling and the suspension of disbelief that people want to own. That feeling for itself has value to many. I strongly believe that limiting land supply and giving it value was one of the most genious things Linden Lab could do. Compare Second Life with Active Worlds. Now the test wether this land ownership was simply one illusion and suspension of disbelief or virtually real rests on Linden Lab. Will in 2 years time people who "bought" land in Second Life wake up and feel fooled into investing in something that has become worthless? Or will they still hold value, own one desirable (and not infinitely depreciated) part of virtual space? My personal opinion is that those who invest in this virtual space early on and helped it grow should be rewarded. I think Linden Lab mentioned that after 4 years they plan to swap the oldest hardware for new servers. So... I think might be good idea instead of making land cheaper make it better and upgrade those servers sooner  Oh, btw, I have experimented with land value and sales volume: below 5 L$ per sqm it is all about tier fee, not the purchase price. Oh I agree with you Anshe. I think resellers who genuinely add value or provide new ways for people to enjoy land use is a good thing. I just think that there's an inescapable tug of two competing forces with land as a commodity. If LL scales back land release to ensure a steady growth curve for land value so it truly is an investment, then it becomes harder and harder for people to buy land leaving rental as the only option (not that we're anywhere near that but just projecting possible futures). If LL keeps land plentiful then it's more difficult for land resellers to profit, which limits the amount of tier they'll hold and their desire to keep investing. How do you balance those two things? I think what resellers will have to do is exactly what you're trying to do with your sims and Prok's planned communities and try to provide a service that goes beyond just being a broker. I think what you're doing is very bold and I'm interested to see how it works out for you. You get two thumbs up from me for being brave enough to try it.
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Kim Anubis
The Magician
Join date: 3 Jun 2004
Posts: 921
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05-02-2005 14:58
*Gives Jesse the secret handshake.* 
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blaze Spinnaker
1/2 Serious
Join date: 12 Aug 2004
Posts: 5,898
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05-02-2005 15:05
Heh heh no idea who's alt you are lindar or if you're just a new member but it's good to see another fresh and intelligent perspective around here.
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Lindar Lehane
registered user
Join date: 13 Mar 2005
Posts: 272
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05-02-2005 16:45
*lindar smiles and inclines his head to one for whom he has respect*
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Bob Bravo
Registered User
Join date: 10 Jun 2004
Posts: 210
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Does Prok know?
05-02-2005 17:28
Folks!!
Does Prok know that the Forums don't pay by the word?
Wading through his/her prose I do see the occasional gem, to wit:
" ... had to sit with a lemon like Lemon or snow in the aptly-named Ohno .. "
Love ya Prok, lol.
Oh, and I disagree with you too!
Bob
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Bob Bravo
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Lindar Lehane
registered user
Join date: 13 Mar 2005
Posts: 272
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05-02-2005 17:57
Hi Bob, Are you still buying land ? I got about 9000 I want to sell. IM me? What's your sense of what the market is doing ?
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Bob Bravo
Registered User
Join date: 10 Jun 2004
Posts: 210
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05-02-2005 19:43
From: Lindar Lehane Hi Bob, Are you still buying land ? I got about 9000 I want to sell. IM me? What's your sense of what the market is doing ? Maybe. No, you IM me. I have absolutely no idea - therefore I feel right at home with ALL the other Posters! Bob
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Bob Bravo
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Prokofy Neva
Virtualtor
Join date: 28 Sep 2004
Posts: 3,698
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05-02-2005 19:51
Hi, Bob! Yeah, you gotta wade through to read all the stuff to get to the gems.
Would you please stop it with the his/her, Prokofy is he. No need to join the jackals and hyenas here on the forum.
So I take it Lindar isn't your alt then?
I'm still wondering who's he is. He has a join date of January 2005. He has no picture, no picks and hardly any plusses on the posrates. There's absolutely nothing about him on his profile. I guess he played a very, vary cautious hand in this game for three months before coming and joining here on the March 2005 date and suddenly getting terribly exercised about island sales
He says he has at least 16 k land -- well on this account anyway. What do you think is up?
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Rent stalls and walls for $25-$50/week 25-50 prims from Ravenglass Rentals, the mall alternative.
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Bob Bravo
Registered User
Join date: 10 Jun 2004
Posts: 210
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05-03-2005 07:12
From: Prokofy Neva Hi, Bob! Yeah, you gotta wade through to read all the stuff to get to the gems.
Would you please stop it with the his/her, Prokofy is he. No need to join the jackals and hyenas here on the forum.
So I take it Lindar isn't your alt then?
I'm still wondering who's he is. He has a join date of January 2005. He has no picture, no picks and hardly any plusses on the posrates. There's absolutely nothing about him on his profile. I guess he played a very, vary cautious hand in this game for three months before coming and joining here on the March 2005 date and suddenly getting terribly exercised about island sales
He says he has at least 16 k land -- well on this account anyway. What do you think is up? Prok, I think he's you. Just didn't know you knew Photoshop too you talented person! And, very sorry about you know what. Till we meet again. Your friend (I hope), Bob
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Bob Bravo
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Prokofy Neva
Virtualtor
Join date: 28 Sep 2004
Posts: 3,698
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05-03-2005 07:58
Hi, Bob
You will always be my friend! I feel bad I couldn't buy that gorgeous plot in Barton (BTW is that still for sale?) It's just I got another similar one in Sutherland -- did you see? It is so cool. Stop by sometime! Boy, talk about "personal patio" hehehe. Say, haven't had a chance to use those "girl bits" then, but you know how it is...busy, busy, busy!
Hey, I'm not Lindar. For one, I don't write posts that short, even when they're long, if you know what I mean ROFL. For two, I don't use Briticisms like "sorted" -- total UK expression (dead giveaway). For three, I don't put MY POINTS IN CAPS ALL LIKE THIS.
Honestly, Bob, you have to do scrupulous, textural, literary analysis to play on the forums these days, ya know?
Lindar isn't a Linden, either, although, I admit, that name "Lind" as a root sure gets ya thinking. I mean, he could be a Linden. Are Lindens allowed to have alts and stuff? Are Lindens allowed to come and churn crap up on the forums? I wonder. I imagine there's absolutely no way to stop them, what with their own failure to track ISPs, and Lindens being like any other human being and having a mom with a credit card LOL.
Well, I do have more on Lindar now. I continue to believe his alt is really the one who talked to my alt to pressure me to sell land once in an area where we both own land and which I guess he's pissed about getting maul-malled or who the hell knows, you know, people get these ideas, and can get very proprietary about the sims in which they don't even own a lot of the land, but w/e.
Then there's his other alt I've seen wandering around my other properties -- snooping? Shopping? You never know. Then there's his yet another alt that already attacked me on the forums and bitched about some sign he thought was ugly -- like a dog with a bone.
But..you know what they say...you can't out people's alts. That would be wrong.
Hey, YOU were the one that taught me the value of a yellow, rotating sign. God bless, you, Bob. I was *so wrong* to have knocked those signs because you know what? *They work*.
Well, whoever he is, it's clear that Lindar Lehane is a Man With Ideas Who Is Going Places. One place he doesn't seem to be going into is the island business LOL. Not sure why. Seems like a great opportunity. But...I personally don't want to get stuck with a big big of pixels like that which you can't sell of in bits permanently as in *gone* but only sell them as leases -- sell the is exactly the word I'd use for them, and I'd keep them in the land sales list until a better version of it comes out, and I hope to buy one myself someday -- and would view it as my land purchase under special terms with the lessee -- but I personally wouldn't want to own *the whole thing* and not have flexibility but then I'm new to this game and learning a lot about real estate still.
I'm going to chalk this one up to just one more barmy individual with ideas...just trying to get people to look at him. you know there is an ancient American expression: "Pay no attention to the little man behind the curtain/I am the Great and Powerful Oz!"
Your friend (really),
Prok
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Rent stalls and walls for $25-$50/week 25-50 prims from Ravenglass Rentals, the mall alternative.
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Bob Bravo
Registered User
Join date: 10 Jun 2004
Posts: 210
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05-03-2005 09:22
Prok, Friend, You are certainly astute re. the av/alt game. I never tumbled to ANY of those clues! So he ain't me, and he (or she, tee hee?) ain't you, hmmm. On the other hand I've been accused of being Anshe's alt - LOLOLOL. Not cute enough, folks! The land you so kindly mentioned is in Sugarloaf, atop the hill with a "splendiferous view of the Barton dam". There are 3 lots left Prok - IM me for a Landmark and a sweet price  . BTW did this thread have a topic at one time? Ciao for niao Bob P.S I'm thinking of starting a Prok Word For The Day Thread, tell me what you think. Today's Word: succinct
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Bob Bravo
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Kismet Karuna
Tosser
Join date: 5 Jun 2004
Posts: 195
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05-03-2005 11:28
From: blaze Spinnaker Heh heh no idea who's alt you are lindar or if you're just a new member but it's good to see another fresh and intelligent perspective around here. In other words, "you agree with me". Quaint.
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Kismet Karuna
Tosser
Join date: 5 Jun 2004
Posts: 195
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05-03-2005 11:31
From: Prokofy Neva Um, would this surgical procedure also have the beneficial side-effect of getting the Linden stifling hand off the land market? Then I'd be happy to undergo it> What some of you seem to not understand is that LL is not in the business of ensuring that land barons, or barons of any sort for that matter, have a lucrative business. Land barons were an offshoot of 1.2 (most likely unplanned). LL owes you jack shit. Adapt or die whiners.
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Eboni Khan
Misanthrope
Join date: 17 Mar 2004
Posts: 2,133
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05-03-2005 11:38
From: Kismet Karuna LL owes you jack shit. Adapt or die whiners. Ok this is my favorite from the thread 
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Buster Peel
Spat the dummy.
Join date: 7 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,242
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05-03-2005 12:43
From: Eboni Khan I own land on public sims, and I don't have all these issues people seem to have with public sims. If you are constantly being greifed (that is a general you) then maybe the problem is with you, not the sims. One form of grief is when your neighbor builds something really ugly or really laggy. Obviously this does not happen to everybody. When it does happen, it isn't usually because your neighbor is specifically targeting you. They are usually targeting anybody and everybody around. Sometimes they aren't targeting anybody, they are just building what they want to build and they couldn't care less what the neighbors think. Many griefer builds are works of art. Don't blame the victims of this problem. It usually isn't their fault. Buster
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Eboni Khan
Misanthrope
Join date: 17 Mar 2004
Posts: 2,133
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05-03-2005 12:49
From: Buster Peel One form of grief is when your neighbor builds something really ugly or really laggy. Obviously this does not happen to everybody. When it does happen, it isn't usually because your neighbor is specifically targeting you. They are usually targeting anybody and everybody around.
Buster That is why walls are AWESOME 
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Prokofy Neva
Virtualtor
Join date: 28 Sep 2004
Posts: 3,698
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05-03-2005 13:01
From: someone What some of you seem to not understand is that LL is not in the business of ensuring that land barons, or barons of any sort for that matter, have a lucrative business. Land barons were an offshoot of 1.2 (most likely unplanned). LL owes you jack shit. Adapt or die whiners. Oh? Um...why do the Lindens sell land on their auction then lol? Instead of just having a page up with the set prices or in-game set prices for lots like you get in TSO. Doesn't seem like TSO to me. I'm sure it WAS planned because they have to figure out how to sell server space and pump value into the tekkie wiki, because as the Soviet Academy of Sciences and its fate show you, you can't get people to pay for the tekkie wiki for ever. LL owes some reasonable normal climate for investment. They don't provide it. So they don't have more investors. If they want them, they'll have to do more. If they don't do more, it will die eventually because like I said, nobody can keep paying for a tekkie wiki. Adapt or die, whiners. 
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Rent stalls and walls for $25-$50/week 25-50 prims from Ravenglass Rentals, the mall alternative.
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Kismet Karuna
Tosser
Join date: 5 Jun 2004
Posts: 195
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05-03-2005 13:28
From: Prokofy Neva Oh? Um...why do the Lindens sell land on their auction then lol? Instead of just having a page up with the set prices or in-game set prices for lots like you get in TSO. Doesn't seem like TSO to me. I'm sure it WAS planned because they have to figure out how to sell server space and pump value into the tekkie wiki, because as the Soviet Academy of Sciences and its fate show you, you can't get people to pay for the tekkie wiki for ever. LL owes some reasonable normal climate for investment. They don't provide it. So they don't have more investors. If they want them, they'll have to do more. If they don't do more, it will die eventually because like I said, nobody can keep paying for a tekkie wiki. Adapt or die, whiners.  Ok, so you are saying that they should "FIC" land traders? Uh huh. Well, I want them to make sure that I have the resources to run my business successfuly. Dude, where's my corporate welfare? I will repeat this one time. LL owes you nothing. This is a blank canvas. If you choose land over another type of business you are already reaping the inherent advantage vs. selling homes or making clothes, etc. I spoke to Phillip, Lee and other Lindens at the time of the 1.2 land changes and afterward. (Yes, this is a successor account, save the alt drama for your momma). A lot. The current state of land barony was not envisioned. As a matter of fact, part of the reason for the 1.2 changes were to inhibit people from owning massive tracts of land. Ask Rathe. He was faced with tiering up massively or selling off. Some folks figured ways to capitalize on it. More power to them. It's called brains and hard work. It's not called favoring one type of business over another. Land traders should be happy that they can even exist and turn a profit. Most of them (and I do not begrudge them this) don't add anything to the value of the land. Renting land is NOT selling land. There is a very big difference, and folks whining about not being able to falsely advertise it as such is moronic. Talk about fuck you hedonism. TSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSOTSO
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