The L$ is up!

You are misunderstanding Svar's point. The 361/$ rate is how much you are paying for a premium stipend with an annual plan. Svar is claiming that there are large numbers of people buying premium accounts only to resell their weekly stipend at a profit, not that people are using alts for day trading.

the sky is falling the sky is falling!

o wrong topic lol.

the smog is lifting the smog is lifting!

It is just a theory really but I have some Residents Online Now numbers that have been recorded by myself for the past few weeks on the hour that I'm playing SL. I noticed a pattern that I will now share with you and you can confirm yourself in the next two days.

Monday 5/15
1900 - 6644
2000 - 6599

Tuesday 5/16
1900 - 6889
2000 - 6832

Wednesday 5/17
1900 - 6546
2000 - 6458

The peak number of residents online now usually peaks between 1900 and 2000 but I wasn't recording that then. Also there dosen't appear to be much change in the day to day numbers other than during the peak times.

Monday 5/22
1900 - 6875 Peak 6906
2000

Tuesday 5/23
1900 - 6852
2000 - 6843 Peak 6986

Wednesday 5/24
1900 - 6405
2000 - 6452 Peak 6528

The 22nd was the first day of limit buys and there was great excitement generated on that day so the numbers could be caused by that. I also missed the 2000 number but would expect it to have been 68xx from past experience.

Monday 5/29
1900 - 6715
2000 - 6553 Peak 6796

Tuesday 5/30
1900 - 6933
2000 - 6902 Peak 6987

Wednesday 3/31
1900 - 6667
2000 - 6773 Peak 6791

Nothing much different than we saw on the 5/16 pattern except there is a slight rise in the numbers which is to be expected since we added about 13,000 new accounts and most of those should have been new first time players.

Monday 6/5
1900
2000 - 6582 Peak 6960

I missed the 1900 number and the 6960 peak was a pleasent suprise except the tier was raised for a number of currency traders on this day and there was considerable issuing of limit buy orders on this day similar to the action seen on 5/22.

Now how long does it take a player to log on an alt and transfer the L$500 stipend? I'll give them 5 minutes and just take the increased number of logged in residents from the 1900 and 2000 hours as my sample, I get about an additional 250 times 120 minutes divided by the 5 minutes dwell times and arrive at a number of 6000 alts cashing in L$ at L$361/1.

You are suggesting that the rise in activity on Tuesday is ALL alts cashing in? That's ludicrous. You are obviously not a shopper! Tuesday is shopping day! Ask anyone who runs a store, especially stores that specialize in clothes, hair and accessories. Their biggest sales days are usually going to be on Tuesday (maybe Wednesday). In any case, the extra people on Tuesday are mostly shoppers, not stipend farming alts. Granted that's just an opinion. But to put your numbers in perspective:

Amount paid out each week in stipends (from May): 13,093,020
Random guess of how much of stipends is from premium stipends (about 50%): 6,546,500
Number of premium accounts: 13,093

So you think that 46% of premium accounts are simply alts that people are farming for stipend? I'm sorry, that sounds preposterous to me.

Anyone have the amount of stippends paid out in April by any chance? I want to use that to estimate the number of active premium and basic accounts.

The total was ~49 million for 4 stipend days.

Thanks. And, um, damn. Realized I can't actually calculate the total estimate of premiums and basics just off that. However, those numbers mean that the increase of accounts from April to May was of an approximate ratio of NewPremiums = 1686.04 - 0.1*NewBasics. That means that if 10,000 new basic accounts were added in may, then 600 new premiums were. Fewer basics, even more premiums. Either way, this shows that SL is growing EXTREMELY fast. Much faster (in regards to premiums anyway) than I thought.

Premium accounts make ~23% of total active player base, based on May numbers. (after May it's no longer possible to calculate that, due to new basic accounts not getting their stipends)

Thanks. And, um, damn. Realized I can't actually calculate the total estimate of premiums and basics just off that. However, those numbers mean that the increase of accounts from April to May was of an approximate ratio of NewPremiums = 1686.04 - 0.1*NewBasics. That means that if 10,000 new basic accounts were added in may, then 600 new premiums were. Fewer basics, even more premiums. Either way, this shows that SL is growing EXTREMELY fast. Much faster (in regards to premiums anyway) than I thought.

How did you get those numbers? (not saying you're wrong, just want to know, since my brain has failed me yet again)

x = number of premium accounts
y = number of basic accounts

x + y = 117458
x*2000 + y*200 = 65465100

x ~= 23318
y ~= 94139

that was error on my part btw in earlier post. meant 23 k accounts i.e. ~20% instad of 23%, sorry.. been a while since i counted these :/

All I do is shop actually but don't pay any attention to the number of additional people on that day. If your biggest day is either Tuesday or Wednesday why the big difference in number of online residents on those two days. If all your shoppers get their money on Tuesday why would they wait until Wednesday to shop and why do the numbers which I didn't publish show the same trend for Thursday as Monday and Wednesday? Mine is only an opinion as well but I see something odd about Tuesdays.

Ack! Where did you get the 117458 figure? Is that the total number of players in SL?

Residents Logged-In During Last 60 Days
117,458

It is Tuesday and this is a single resident.

L$330 / US$1.00 1 L$998,508

Ack! Damn, didn't even notice that up there. Yeah, that makes estimating number of active Premium(p) and Basic(b) players easy. My numbers are a bit different from yours. The 117,458 is for the last 60 days.

(31/60) * 117,458 = 60687 logged in in the 31 days of May
p + b = 60687
500*p + 50*b = 13,093,020 stippends a week (may nums divided by 5)

b = 60687 - p

500*p + 50*(60687-p) = 13,093,020
500*p -50*p + 3,034,350 = 13,093,020

450*p = 10058670
Premium (p) = 22,353
Basic (b) = 38,334

Stipend Tuesday just stomped the life out of that L$ rally.. Ha Ha

That $320l/$1US was nice while it lasted *sigh*

They spend more time actually going around and shopping on Tuesday, the purchase sometimes actually happens on another day (especially with my products since people tend to think about it for a while before buying).

Anyway, if I was stipend farming, I wouldn't bother to log on until Friday to get my stipend since I would likely post mine to sell on the weekend when the prices tend to be best for sellers.

You foolishly assume that people in SL are smart. By the looks of the Lindex, with its $4,600 to $6,000 per level all the way from $324 to $330 earlier this morning, I don't think that is so.

But yes, I think you 're right in regards to your post below this one.

Uh no... "Stipend Tuesday" probably had almost nothing to do with it. Lawrence catching up with increasing Lindex tiers allowing a several larger players to start selling their lindens again, that's likely a much more direct cause.

There are a few dozen new orders between 322 (where we were at yesterday) and 330. Thousands of people got their stipends just a few hours ago, you think that the stipends all magically got consolidated into a few sellers in a few hours and posted on the Lindex?

You theory about Tuesday being shopping day I'm sure is true since there is a huge influx of L$ that day. However as I was shopping in RL I wondered why would some players only play on Tuesday just to shop. I play 7 days a week and I'm sure most regular players are on multip[le times during the week but I would think that the weekend would see the most players logged in. This is true for everyday except Tuesday which has the highest total of residents online now of any day of the week. My guess is it the truth lies somewhere in between our two theories.

Food stamp effect

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5453489

" Grocers in the inner city complain that it's hard to run their businesses when most of the customers only make their purchases the first week of the month. That's due in large part to the cycle of the food stamps program."

We have a weekly cycle instead.

L$ falling like a rock again.

L$336 / $1 USD.

Watch for L$500 / $1 USD by end of year.

SELL
SELL
SELL

The tiers were all increased on Monday when the Lindex sold significant quantities at L$320/1. Also about 14:30 someone dropped 1 million L$ on the market sell side which was immediatetly resold on the limit sell side. Look at the graph, even that action didn't cause the exchange rate to go up for long and the L$320/1 rate was seen after that. However about 23:15 there was a block of about 1.5 million L$ again dropped on the market sell side as evident by the next spike on the graph. This time not as many currency traders were still awake and the rise on the limit sell side took longer to rise at a time when the market buyers are mostly absent and there just wasn't the volume to drive the rate back down. The final straw occured when I reported earlier in this thread about someone posting a limit sell offer of 1 million L$ at L$330/1.

Were these seperate incidents? Probably unless someone is trying to destablize the LindeX. Also these large block trades don't come from currency traders since no one trader gets L$ in lots bigger than about 400,000 at any one time. These trades are comming from large content providers who hold large amounts of L$. The market sell orders executed yesterday make sense but why would a content provider wait until a Tuesday when he has to compete with possible L$ farming alts to sell 1 million L$ when they could have sold on Monday at rates of about L$322/1?