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Why is the $L falling?

Kitty Barnett
Registered User
Join date: 10 May 2006
Posts: 5,586
03-15-2008 15:47
From: Desmond Shang
Of course, merchants and sellers can correct and eventually will do so; I remember doing this because (like you) I have been around a lot longer than the controlled economy. But when things can go up, they can also go down.
I'm sure you remember all the "the sky is falling" talk that went on when the L$ was at the L$330-350/$1 level and how a lot of merchants were looking to fix their prices in US$ rather than L$.

When the L$ value started to increase, everyone suddenly hushed and quietly pocketed the extra profit. Things didn't become cheaper over time since, some things even become *more* expensive in L$, on top of the increasing exchange rate.

If noone (or very few) adjusted their prices downward on a 30% increase, they're certainly not going to do it for a few percentage points now.
Salvador Nakamura
http://www.sl-index.com
Join date: 16 Jan 2007
Posts: 557
03-15-2008 16:28
From: Rocketman Raymaker
The lindex appears to be running out of sellers and the value of the $L is falling as a result of this.

Is there a reason behind this?


From: Mathieu Basiat
i'm thinking of getting trader status so i can buy up linden...i think it is headed to 250



:confused: TRQ is a bit low, but i still see 265 on the board ?
Colette Meiji
Registered User
Join date: 25 Mar 2005
Posts: 15,556
03-15-2008 16:32
From: Mathieu Basiat
i'm thinking of getting trader status so i can buy up linden...i think it is headed to 250


Since you can at no time know when LL will step in and open the Supply Linden "flood gates" I don't know how we can know that.

Any minute LL could step in and sell 100Million Linden and the price jump back to 270

Course people are free to speculate all they want.
Uvas Umarov
Phone Weasel Advocate
Join date: 8 Feb 2007
Posts: 622
03-15-2008 19:01
From: Puppet Shepherd
QFT. Last night my sell order goes through at 262 while I'm out, and when I come back people are putting theirs in at 266? Come on. I think they're not checking before they sell, and just putting in whatever they sold for a week ago.

Another thought - is the US economy so bad that the US dollar is even becoming less valuable vs. the Linden dollar?!?

Editing to add a question: I thought I read at some point that Supply Linden only pumps in money to keep the L$ stable up to a certain amount per 24 hours. Is this right?


The lindex has been acting goofy for me the last trade or two. I put in a limit order and there was at least 10 million ahead of me, but my order filled as if it was a market order. Very strange.

I think that there is a problem with the coding of the lindex, thats why the prices are getting goofy.
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Desmond Shang
Guvnah of Caledon
Join date: 14 Mar 2005
Posts: 5,250
03-15-2008 19:30
From: Uvas Umarov
The lindex has been acting goofy for me the last trade or two. I put in a limit order and there was at least 10 million ahead of me, but my order filled as if it was a market order. Very strange.

I think that there is a problem with the coding of the lindex, thats why the prices are getting goofy.


It hasn't been a straight queue fill for ages now - I've seen the same thing ages ago and remarked upon it, and was told that I had missed the change also.

I think if it were a straight queue you could put in $L 100 sales and with a bit of planning, see how Supply Linden worked... I'd have to think about it some but I'm pretty sure if you knew the mechanism with such precision you could probably game the system to personal advantage somehow.

I think it's good that it's a bit blended - or was - is there evidence that Supply Linden is active right now (or otherwise?)

The whole thing seems a bit odd to me.
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Kelli May
karmakanic
Join date: 7 Oct 2006
Posts: 1,135
03-15-2008 20:15
Why is the $L falling?

Because it was stapled to the sky?
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Usagi Musashi
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Join date: 24 Oct 2004
Posts: 6,083
03-15-2008 20:24
From: Kelli May
If noone (or very few) adjusted their prices downward on a 30% increase, they're certainly not going to do it for a few percentage points now.


Again what where how? Your models doesnt made sence? Where are you getting these make believe numbers? Never Mind
Colette Meiji
Registered User
Join date: 25 Mar 2005
Posts: 15,556
03-15-2008 21:04
From: Kelli May
Why is the $L falling?

Because it was stapled to the sky?


:) lol
Musicteacher Rampal
Registered User
Join date: 20 Feb 2004
Posts: 824
03-15-2008 21:53
I don't buy $L because I don't want to buy them from LL.

LL needs to either stop selling and return stipends to $500 per premium and $200 for basic

or

Make it so you can choose not to purchase from LL. I want my $$ to go to residents if I have to buy, not LL. They get enough of my $$, especially when they have taken away and reduced stipends!

just my 2 cents :)
Colette Meiji
Registered User
Join date: 25 Mar 2005
Posts: 15,556
03-15-2008 22:05
From: Musicteacher Rampal
I don't buy $L because I don't want to buy them from LL.

LL needs to either stop selling and return stipends to $500 per premium and $200 for basic

or

Make it so you can choose not to purchase from LL. I want my $$ to go to residents if I have to buy, not LL. They get enough of my $$, especially when they have taken away and reduced stipends!

just my 2 cents :)


You are using two different scales:

it was $500 per week premium

but $200 a month basic

Basic got $50L a week.

Basic never got $200 week from just the normal Stipend.

Only if you factored in Ratings bonuses, which were different and affected premium also.

-----------------------

If you buy L$ and SL Exchange none of it is from Supply Linden.

I still think Supply linden is only a fraction of the total L$ sold. How big a fraction depends on how much they have needed to sell to maintain a price.
Svar Beckersted
Registered User
Join date: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 783
03-15-2008 22:08
From: Uvas Umarov
The lindex has been acting goofy for me the last trade or two. I put in a limit order and there was at least 10 million ahead of me, but my order filled as if it was a market order. Very strange.

I think that there is a problem with the coding of the lindex, thats why the prices are getting goofy.



I have filed multiple support tickets complaining about the action of the Lindex executions and LL is aware of the problem and have assured me they are working to fix it. However they have been fixing it for over 6 months now and it seems to be getting worse.
Desmond Shang
Guvnah of Caledon
Join date: 14 Mar 2005
Posts: 5,250
03-15-2008 22:20
From: Svar Beckersted
I have filed multiple support tickets complaining about the action of the Lindex executions and LL is aware of the problem and have assured me they are working to fix it. However they have been fixing it for over 6 months now and it seems to be getting worse.


What does "fixed" mean?

Was this an assurance in recent days? This market shift from $L 265 is new-ish.

Thanks, if you can respond to this - I was about to call up and ask what the policy statement is regarding the LindeX.
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Raymond Figtree
Gone, avi, gone
Join date: 17 May 2006
Posts: 6,256
03-15-2008 22:32
20 million at 263. wonder if anshe was waiting for things to go below 264 all this time. Or is it the Lindens drawing a line in the sand. Very odd...
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Puppet Shepherd
New Year, New Tricks
Join date: 14 Feb 2007
Posts: 725
03-15-2008 22:34
From: Raymond Figtree
20 million at 263. wonder if anshe was waiting for things to go below 264 all this time. Or is it the Lindens drawing a line in the sand. Very odd...


Well, with all the discussion about it, probably everyone with money to sell is running out and changing it over right now, probably driving the price back to where it was shortly.
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Colette Meiji
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Join date: 25 Mar 2005
Posts: 15,556
03-15-2008 22:41
if I am reading this right (since I normally don't follow the rate)

It has fallen from 267 to 263? So a little less than 2% of the total value.

I don't want to sound like a practical person at all .. but ... Um ...

Don't Panic ..

Gas prices alone are up around 15% in the last few months ..



the price is going down because demand is *up*, right? Demand being up at least is a good thing.
Qie Niangao
Coin-operated
Join date: 24 May 2006
Posts: 7,138
03-15-2008 22:49
From: Colette Meiji
If you buy L$ and SL Exchange none of it is from Supply Linden.

I still think Supply linden is only a fraction of the total L$ sold. How big a fraction depends on how much they have needed to sell to maintain a price.
Right, but of course all *new* L$s come from Supply
  • , so buying L$s anywhere increases the demand, which is only satisfied by Supply Linden.

    If they still paid Basic stipends, the current totally bogus membership numbers would be made even less credible. For Premiums, I dunno, maybe the same problem? at US$6/mo for an annual membership, I guess L$500/wk would offer a tiny margin, though after transaction fees, I'm not sure the return would reward the risk.

    To the topic: It would be astute of LL to "re-denominate" the L$ so that it was pegged to a kind of "market basket" of currencies roughly corresponding to the distribution of residents' countries of origin. Pegged as it's been to the US$, the L$ has been steadily loosing value for everybody, but most noticeably when a local currency's exchange rate to the US$ applies.

    If that's what's happening and there's new target to adjust for some of the devaluation of the US$ that's already occurred, it would be helpful if the target were reached soon and then the change announced publicly, to allay any uncertainty.

    [* Edit: That was sloppy shorthand. Of course there are lots of much larger other sources of L$s--and the following paragraph addresses one that was raised in the post: stipends--but assuming all sources fixed, additional new L$s all come from Supply Linden.]
  • Mathieu Basiat
    Wavemaster
    Join date: 24 Apr 2006
    Posts: 57
    03-15-2008 23:13
    from what i saw any $$$ added to 263 was less that 1million at a time, more like 200-300k L at a time, not likely supply linden. it was also an odd situation as the database wasn't being updated...
    Colette Meiji
    Registered User
    Join date: 25 Mar 2005
    Posts: 15,556
    03-15-2008 23:14
    From: Qie Niangao

    If that's what's happening and there's new target to adjust for some of the devaluation of the US$ that's already occurred, it would be helpful if the target were reached soon and then the change announced publicly, to allay any uncertainty.


    Maybe - but then again people would then accuse them of manipulating the market and say they are just subsidizing the price to aid content creators and landlords at the expense of the normal Residents.

    Which of course has been SOP ever since Supply Linden was introduced, but they don't want people to know they admit that.

    ---------------------------------

    In other words if they admit to a constant rate they want to achieve, people will accuse them of not having a free market.

    If they don't admit to wanting to keep a stable economy people will accuse them of not safe guarding a stable SL economy and damaging their business.

    Kinda a damed if they do/ Damned if they don't deal.
    Svar Beckersted
    Registered User
    Join date: 14 Apr 2006
    Posts: 783
    03-15-2008 23:51
    From: Desmond Shang
    What does "fixed" mean?

    Was this an assurance in recent days? This market shift from $L 265 is new-ish.

    Thanks, if you can respond to this - I was about to call up and ask what the policy statement is regarding the LindeX.


    I haven't filled a support ticket on this in a couple of months and it is time to do it again I think. Please call anyway, LL needs to be prodded to fix anything the more people prodding the faster it gets done.
    Svar Beckersted
    Registered User
    Join date: 14 Apr 2006
    Posts: 783
    03-15-2008 23:56
    From: Mathieu Basiat
    from what i saw any $$$ added to 263 was less that 1million at a time, more like 200-300k L at a time, not likely supply linden. it was also an odd situation as the database wasn't being updated...


    About 9 million came in at L$264 a few hours ago that I'm sure was Supply Linden but time will tell. LL has been very slow to add new L$ this month and that has led to the recent slide in the exchange rate.
    mcgeeb Gupte
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    Join date: 17 Sep 2005
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    03-16-2008 00:20
    From: Svar Beckersted
    I haven't filled a support ticket on this in a couple of months and it is time to do it again I think. Please call anyway, LL needs to be prodded to fix anything the more people prodding the faster it gets done.


    Why do we really care if LL fixes it? I'd rather not see them get money for $L, I'd rather see residents get it all.
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    Qie Niangao
    Coin-operated
    Join date: 24 May 2006
    Posts: 7,138
    03-16-2008 05:37
    From: Colette Meiji
    Which of course has been SOP ever since Supply Linden was introduced, but they don't want people to know they admit that.
    Thanks. I honestly thought everybody knew and accepted Supply's role. Some posts here show that acceptance isn't as unanimous as I'd thought.
    Colette Meiji
    Registered User
    Join date: 25 Mar 2005
    Posts: 15,556
    03-16-2008 05:51
    From: Qie Niangao
    Thanks. I honestly thought everybody knew and accepted Supply's role. Some posts here show that acceptance isn't as unanimous as I'd thought.


    Supply Linden's purpose is to keep the exchange rate fairly constant - by definition manipulating the price. I didn't say that I didn't "accept" Supply Linden's role.

    -BUT-

    There are a lot of people out there who do not think Supply Linden should exist at all.

    There are still people out there who predate Supply Linden, the LindenX, LL's crowding out of GOM and the rest. Not everyone saw the changes as positive.

    Musicteacher's post is one example of why - they don't think that the Linden's should be selling printed money on the currency exchange. She has always been an advocate of larger Stipends.

    Other's feel that their manipulation of the price negatively affects demand for Lindens

    Still others feel that keeping the price artificially low harms content creators by reducing rewards for their services.
    Kelli May
    karmakanic
    Join date: 7 Oct 2006
    Posts: 1,135
    03-16-2008 06:46
    Originally Posted by Kelli May
    If noone (or very few) adjusted their prices downward on a 30% increase, they're certainly not going to do it for a few percentage points now.

    From: Usagi Musashi
    Again what where how? Your models doesnt made sence? Where are you getting these make believe numbers? Never Mind


    Umm, I never said that, Usagi. Somehow you took something someone else said and put my name to it.
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    Isablan Neva
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    03-16-2008 08:24
    From: mcgeeb Gupte
    Why do we really care if LL fixes it? I'd rather not see them get money for $L, I'd rather see residents get it all.


    You and I will have to differ on that point. I'd rather LL be profiting off the sale than "SL's Greatest Economic Mind" who contributes nothing that I hold in any value. If somebody gets to collect a "middle man markup" my vote goes to LL.
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