Bot count, the sequel: 52%

Didn't read the thread, hopefully not repeating something someone already said. The data is a bit unbelievable but then who can say. There are very very few real users and a lot of bots. I'd expect to see maybe an average of one real user per sim or something and then sometimes you come across a sim packed full of bots.

Anyway, main thing I don't like about your two studies is that you did them in the same set of sims. Maybe that row is particularly heavily (or lightly) weighted in bots. I would have preferred to see the two studies done in totally different or randomly selected sims.

Yeah, I know that quoting myself can probably cause blindness or maybe put hair on my palms. Here's my train of thought, though.

+ LL estimates 10-15% User Hours are racked up by Bots.
+ Most traffic bots probably run 24/7
+ 34,800,000 User Hours in August

So a bit of math might produce an interesting figure. 15% of the monthly user hours divided by 31 days divided by 24 hours.

34,800,000 * .15 / 31 / 24 = 7,016 full-time traffic bots?

/shrug. Dunno if that has any meaning at all but it's one way of looking at the numbers.

Take it a step further, that's enough to fill up 175 sims 24/7 with 40 avatars. That *feels* to me like a reasonable number to be honest. It would be 1 in 200 sims (assuming 32000 sims, which includes all estates) are constantly full of bots, again a pretty solid number compared to what I see flying around the grid.

If 100 people logged in for an hour per day you'd observe, on average, four of them online.

LL says 10-15% user hours are bots. In a population of tens of thousands (that is, too many for large random variation) that's mathematically the same as saying 10-15% of the users online are bots.

However they're calculating it, they're obviously doing it wrong. I doubt they're really calculating it at all. I suspect that number came from someone's bum.

So a person visits 219 sims, checks who are bots/campers, and the result are published here. Presented as a survey, so far nothing wrong.

Well, on thing: the interpretation of the numbers. The only thing that can be said, is that in 219 regions visited, 52% of the avatars seemed to be bots or camper. Nothing more, nothing less.

So only a small part of mainland has been visited. Most of SL is estate anyway, but even if not, it is not by any means a random set of sims. Nothing more then a part of a continent. For all I know, a different continent might show 0 bots, bringing the numbers back to 26%. Still an impressive number, but that is not the point. The point is that the numbers say nothing. Phils example was a good one, about the 1 state being representative for the whole of the USA.

What I find most amusing, is that the people who read Anyas surveys like the bible, think we can only comment if we do our own surveys. Either do it better, or shut up. And that is more then ridiculous. It does not take a scientist to see that the numbers presented have no value at all when talking about SL as a whole, so why would I have to conduct my own survey to say that?

But how would a survey give a more meaningful set of data? Without actually doing the survey, there is a set of rules that makes the outcome much more trustworthy.
- Random sims. Visit 219 sims and choose them all random. A list of all regions would have to be at hand to do this of course.
- Multiple visits per sim. Bot farms will be there each visit, avatars that only were afk for an hour or so, will be either gone or at another place.
- Making a list of the avatar names per sim. Easy to do with a script.

Why don't I do the survey based on the list above? Because it is a waste of time. Just like the survey Anya did is a waste of time.
Even while the rule set above gives more trustworthy figures, what would we do with them? Lets say we get an outcome of 25%, now what? Present them to LL? So they can shrug and move on?

The only way to get a real percentage of bots plus 24/7 campers is to use the data that LL has on their servers. It is not so hard to count the connections that are 24/7 online. But they will not give us the results of this count, as they profit from those same bots.

Example:
Bot count, the sequel: 0%
=================
Today, I visited Caledon and Ecstasy, 2 estates. And guess what, I did not meet a single bot. And really, I looked well.
Should we now conclude that the average bot count on estates is around 0%? Or maybe even the whole of SL?

Disclaimer
======
Just as about everyone else, I think bots should go. Traffic should be removed as a search metric for search places, and most botfarms would disappear eventually. No one is pro-bots.
So please, keep ignorant remarks about hidden agendas to yourself. Believe me, talking about hidden agenda's is more insulting to the intelligence of the one posting it, then about the one the remark is about

what amuses me most about this 'survey' is that I would be counted as a bot. Simply becase i am often in the same spot and un responsive to chat 1/2the time. And yet I am actively doing thigns in SL. I could be working in photoshop on soemthing for my shop, building (1/2 the time you woudnt even notice what im building becuase i work on jewellery) in IMs with staff or with friends or with a customer. That and if someoen talks to me when i am at home and isnt my partner I ignore them.


I often repeat all this and can also ignore chat at my club. I am not a bot. I simply can sit in the same spot for ours at a time (and by hours I mean there are days where i dont move off the pillow talk cushion in my house from 9 am my time til 9 pm when I am into soemthing i am creating).

There is NO real method for determning who is or isnt a bot. Hell I even camp sometimes O.o Whe i am working on my inventory or I happen to have IMs coming in or im working in photoshop. Ad yet I am not a bot.


Then we come to the idea of logging onmysellf and my alt at the same tiem becuase i need them both for a photoshoot.... does that make my alt a bot?



The fact is you have no idea who is a bot, you are guessing. I read how you guess at who is a bot and who isnt. I would fit into it some of the time. So would my partner, and others i know. We arent bots, we are just busy peopel who tend to sit in the same spot on voice or in ims for a few hours.




What iinterests me is why you have such an agenda against bots? You have done this three times tht I know of. What is the point. I personally dont see much point in bots but in the end why on earth would you waste 10 hours over 2 days doing this

If you were LL and did a survey, "what would be the maximum percentage you would announce publicly?" is the real question.
There is one easy way for anyone interested in this issue to know for themselves, break out of you shelted life in the dozen sims you spend your SL in, pull down the map, and teleport around to 100 of the biggest groups of green dots you can see, and try talking to the people there, in many places you could leave $500L on the ground and if not for autoreturn it would still be there an hour later
And campers should be siding against trafficbots, because without bots camping would be more popular and better paying, for real campers anyway.

But in the thread for the previous study, all kinds of objections were raised that the sample was collected at the wrong time of day. So this one answers those objections. There certainly is still a question of generalizing the results of this sample of sims across the universe of sims; that's definitely a limitation of the studies to-date. But both sampling questions were raised, and there was a straightforward way to systematically answer the time of day one.

The proper methodology for answering the sim sampling question is less obvious; another random sample of Mainland is one approach, but Estates might also be of interest, depending what interpretations one may hope to make of the data. (I'm repeating myself here. Sorry.)

Put your money where your mouth is Becka. Let us see you travel to and investigate 219 sims in 10 hours and post data about it.



How do you figure the amount of bots is not relevant? Relevant to what???

Is this valid??

I can see why one State as opposed to another will have different political leanings, based on history, location, local economy, and various other factors.

But are you suggesting that it is the case that some parts of the grid have large contiguous areas that are predominantly clubs, or malls, or whatever, and that these are not randomly and evenly distributed across all continents?

Vi

What agenda against bots? How do you figure this is an "agenda against bots"? Perhaps she is trying to show us who care some closer to real numbers that disprove LL's 10% bot theory. The time is not a waste in my book and is greatly appreciated.

True. Also, I want to join Brianna and agree that this data is very useful and extremely interesting. I think we can do better though and I'm trying to work out something serious to properly count the number of bots. One thing I just came up with is send every one online an IM saying you'll pay them if they respond to your IM with a secret word. Then you can just count all the replies. Helpfully you don't actually have to pay them since you already got the response <G>.

Lol! Sure you are!

Seriously, tho, what is wrong with my idea to do it statistically? (post 149) Why bother with criteria to decide which exact green dot is a bot and which is not? If a sim has a fairly static, elevated number of avatars over a period of hours, it either has bots or is incredibly popular. If the number of sims surveyed is large enough (easy to do with a bot), the inflation due to the (tiny) number of incredibly popular venues will be cancelled out by missing the sims that only have a small number of traffic bots/campers.
.

Well since the biggest amount of bots will be found in so called bot farms, I think it is not too hard to get a pretty accurate figure. Give or take a few mistakes on individuals, the skyboxes with 20+ bots will make the biggest part.

Using a bot to find bots is a much better way, no one needs to waste 10 hours to do a check that actually says nothing, and the bot can run a few runs to get accurate data.

As a sensible method I would say get all avatar names in a sim, plus their location. Groups of avatars close to each other, that are at the same place in a few runs (with enough time between the runs) are probably bots. Even stronger, if you do 10 runs over a few days, each avatar that is in the same location each run, can safely be assumed a bot.

The outcome of such a bot run would at least give us an indication of how bot-infested SL really is. Not that LL will then say: wow we have to ac, because they already have those numbers. They just are not very inclined of doin something against it, as we all know that bots do suit them well regarding concurrency they can present to the outside world.

This would at lest show some accuracy. There is a bias when a researcher is deciding if someone is or isnt a bot. As i pointed out had the OP came to my home sim (no idea if she did) i was likely counted as a bot, as was my partner.

However for it to be truely accurate data the best thing to do would be to have a script which records all the avies on the sim constantly for a 24 hour or 48 hour period... i would say 48. If a user is logged on for say 46 of those 48 hours on the same sim i think then we caan reasonably assume that it is a bot.

If this was done over a decent section of the grid then I think we would actually have some interesting data.

http://ninjaland.net/scripts/index.php.

I'm currently working on a way to get the scanner distributed to as many sims as possible. I suppose the fact that I'll eventually know the exact location of most avatars in the game at all times will creep people out, but welcome to the future.

the problem here lies in that as the OP discussed in this thread (i dunno or the other one whoknows... this is the third) she makes judgement calls on everyone, this includes single avies like myself or groups of avies at clubs etc. I have peopel at my club who will stay for a stint of 8 hours at times if we are havign a good party. Some of whom dont cht much in open chat and sometimes it gets quiet esp late at night. Some of those would be classed as bots according to all this becuase they are in the same place, havnt moved and dont talk

To be honest I do wonder how LL would react if such a system is in place, though I cannot be bothered But isn't it only mainland this system is distributed to? I doubt you will have a 16m2 on most estates for this purpose.
A bot that hops literally to each sim it can access on the grid would give much better data regarding bots, though it might not suit the actual purpose you are creating this system for

From the URL above -
"The following avatars have not moved in 6 hours"

I'm scripting a collar attachment for my alt so that she can be made to run about in an area while I shoot at her and check the effect on her meter.

"have not moved" would need to encompass at least a limited range of movement.

As SL uses population stats for their own marketing puposes it would not be in their interest to ban bots, which probably accounts for their reticence in banning them up to now, despite all the anti-bot threads, and it would also be in their interest to underestimate the numbers of bots.

For those reasons I would doubt any figures that LL provide as being biassed, and the only way to get meaningful numbers is for a disinterested party to conduct a scientific analysis.

However, what would be the point? If an independent survey did manage to distinguish between live accounts, part-time and full-time campers, part-time and full-time bots, and the figure was 50% bots/campers, 50% live accounts, would that change LL's mind about banning bots? I suspect they would rubbish the methodology, generate lots of smoke, and let things fade away.

I can't imagine any scenario where knowing the true numbers would result in a positive outcome.

I hate bots personally, and campers. I signed up for a world created and lived in by its residents, and that is not the case today, sadly.

All I know is, in my private sim, in my small corner of the metaverse, almost all the islands on my map are empty, and those that do have green dots are invariably bots. Not scientific to be sure, but that is irrelevant, as I base my decisions on whether to stay or to leave on my own personal experience, not on someone else's surveys.

Vi

Hey don't get me wrong, I love bots, hate traffic. I would use a bot but it's excruciating trying to teleport to every sim in the grid. Other bot writers have done it I suppose but it usually takes me about a week to see every sim or something.

It would be only mainland and only the 1000 or so sims I have 16s on and even then only within 96m of each of those parcels, but it'll be interesting nonetheless.

That's twice you've said that in this thread. I can't speak for anyone else but I have said that I'd like to know how many (traffic) bots are on the grid on average. There's nothing strange about why I don't do surveys myself though. It's because (1) it would take much more time than my interest merits and (2) it wouldn't make any difference to anything.

Having said that, doing the sort of sweep that Anya did isn't really all that time-consuming because it can be spread over many days. Anya's was spread over 10 hours, and the avs in the sims were changing all the time; e.g the avs in the later sims were very different when she got there than they were when she was doing the earlier sims, and so on. So doing a smallish number each day for a while would amount to the same thing.

They are calculating it by using behavioural characteristics. Using that method, they can't get an accurate picture, but I put much more faith is where their figures came from than where your statement that I quoted came from.

I'm pointing out that a tiny portion of the grid cannot be taken as being representative of the grid as a whole. That's all.

I did the sums yesterday and arrived at the 7000+ number, but my gut feeling is that it's much too low, although it may be reasonably right.

Quoted for truth.

Unusual to see you in a bot thread Phil. Most out of charachter

You cannot survey the mainland to determine the average number of bots on the whole Grid. I strongly suspect that there are a larger ratio of bots per sqm on private islands than on the mainland.

Yeah, I know. But I thought I'd dip my toe in to see what all the fuss is about