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Bot count, the sequel: 52%

Lear Cale
wordy bugger
Join date: 22 Aug 2007
Posts: 3,569
11-17-2008 09:20
From: Bee Mizser
Agreed Rha.

The only people qualified to do a survey are LL.


Can you defend that assertion?
Rock Vacirca
riches to rags
Join date: 18 Oct 2006
Posts: 1,093
11-17-2008 09:21
From: Bee Mizser
OK so you choose to personally call me an idiot? Thanks for insulting me personally.

I asked the questions because what I see are skewed figures that are complete bollocks.

What exactly is the test that someone is a bot or a camper? could I have failed it in the past (IE could I a real person have been called a bot or a camper in the past)

I live on mainland, travel to various locations, and I would state that most of the AVs I meet are real people, they are generally talkative, so in my experience far less than 52% of people are bots.

The sample is not representative (less than 1% of sims are checked and only on mainland), the criteria for being a bot is an interpretation but it's presented as FACT, when it clearly isn't.

Oh and my hidden agenda? You tell me. I own the land a club is on, I own the land Dani's mainstore is on, and I own some of the land I call home. I own no bots or campers and will not entertain them on my land.

So come back to me when you have cold hard facts. Then maybe I'll listen.


Just as an observation, Anya was not counting sims, she was counting avatars and bots, so the 1% of sims counted is entirely irrelevant. Her figure of 591 avatars is greater than 1% of the number of concurrent avatars over the sample period, and is statistically significant. All sorts of correction factors need to be applied to obtain meaningful information from this data, but criticising her for collecting raw data in the first place is misguided.

Rock
Phil Deakins
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Join date: 17 Jan 2007
Posts: 9,537
11-17-2008 09:22
Banning traffic bots, without removing traffic rankings in the Places tab search, would make matters much worse. The current bots that are well out of the way of people would suddenly adopt new roles that would bring them in range of people and cause more lag than before. Forget about banning traffic bots - push for a change in the Places tab search that will make them useless.
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Taylor Lubezki
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Join date: 12 Aug 2007
Posts: 498
11-17-2008 09:22
I don't care about like one or two bots. Mainly the designer etc being there. But when I see a box full of Avies packed like sardines.. Then it's an issue. I don't care unless it's a obvious attempt at fudging traffic numbers..
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Lear Cale
wordy bugger
Join date: 22 Aug 2007
Posts: 3,569
11-17-2008 09:23
From: Bee Mizser
But that is still subjective. LL actually could get an accurate figure very easily by extrapolating IP data from it's server logs.


No they couldn't. They'd count my alts, which I use concurrently for testing permissions, or adjusting poses, as bots.

Any method for detecting bots will not be perfect. However, I bet it's easy to come up with observational methods that are 90% correct. In the case of bot farms, the number would be nearly 100% correct. The harder ones are the isloated bots, which could easily be users who rarely log on and are AFK. If I do a survey, I'll be careful to identify different categories of behavior, and let others decide whether they're likely to be bots or not.
Bee Mizser
Registered User
Join date: 22 Apr 2007
Posts: 329
11-17-2008 09:23
From: Lear Cale
Can you defend that assertion?

Easily.

They have access to the one piece of factual data that could prove an AV a bot or not.

The server logs. This would list the IP addresses of all logins, the dates and times of login, activity in regions, you name it, it would be there.

Some fairly simple analysis of that data would provide an accurate figure.

Your alts would have activity, be it rezzing items, running through your tests or whatever.

A bot stands there.
Kidd Krasner
Registered User
Join date: 1 Jan 2007
Posts: 1,938
11-17-2008 09:24
From: Bee Mizser
Sorry you are confusing science with statistics.

Science is completely objective, that's why experiments in identical conditions can be repeated time after time and the results will be the same.

Statistics aren't completely objective

You're half right, half wrong, on both counts.

I was a participant in a double-blind study on the effectiveness of a particular drug. Every week or two I'd go into the office, complete a questionnaire about the preceding period, and go through an interview with one of the physicians involved in the study. Was the study scientific? Absolutely. They'd have no hope of getting it published otherwise. Were my answers objective? Of course not. Were the notes or conclusions written down by the doctor during my interview objective? Again, of course not.

Were the statistical analyses objective? Yep, they were. An average is an average, precisely defined mathematically. So is the variance, and various other statistical measures used to analyze the data.

The mathematical science of statistics is an objective tool, used by scientists, to analyze imperfect data in order to reach scientifically valid results, within some subjectively chosen margin of error.
Lear Cale
wordy bugger
Join date: 22 Aug 2007
Posts: 3,569
11-17-2008 09:30
From: Bee Mizser
Sorry you are confusing science with statistics.

Science is completely objective, that's why experiments in identical conditions can be repeated time after time and the results will be the same.

Statistics aren't completely objective


No, I'm not confused.

Statistics are completely objective; it's just math. However, categorization is subjective, leading to subjective results. Science tries to be objective, but is never completely so.

The subjective element here, as I said above, falls into two categories, where to look, and the observations themselves. However, in pratice I find it extremely easy to tell a bot from a typical camper.

We do need to tighten up on our observational criteria, though.
Skell Dagger
Smitten
Join date: 26 Jun 2007
Posts: 1,885
11-17-2008 09:31
From: Danielle Harrop
So, what is a bot. What is the objective test to prove an AV is a bot? Let's start there, shall we?
Instead of going round and round the houses about whether Anya's data has any merit or not, why don't we collectively put our heads together and do what Dani is suggesting here: try to come up with a metric for defining what *could* be a bot?

My starter for ten:

- In a group of avatars, *more than two* of them have the exact same rez date (possibility of coincidence, but the more avatars that are present with the same rez date, the lower the statistical possibility of it being by chance).
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Meade Paravane
Hedgehog
Join date: 21 Nov 2006
Posts: 4,845
11-17-2008 09:32
From: Rock Vacirca
Just as an observation, Anya was not counting sims, she was counting avatars and bots, so the 1% of sims counted is entirely irrelevant. Her figure of 591 avatars is greater than 1% of the number of concurrent avatars over the sample period, and is statistically significant. All sorts of correction factors need to be applied to obtain meaningful information from this data, but criticising her for collecting raw data in the first place is misguided.

I just don't like the interpretation of the data.

100 avatars seen
50 of those avatars are bots or campers
50% are bots. QED

I used to camp. I ain't a bot.

/me beeps again.
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Bee Mizser
Registered User
Join date: 22 Apr 2007
Posts: 329
11-17-2008 09:32
From: Lear Cale
No, I'm not confused.

We do need to tighten up on our observational criteria, though.


There, we do agree.
Lear Cale
wordy bugger
Join date: 22 Aug 2007
Posts: 3,569
11-17-2008 09:33
From: Bee Mizser
Easily.

They have access to the one piece of factual data that could prove an AV a bot or not.

The server logs. This would list the IP addresses of all logins, the dates and times of login, activity in regions, you name it, it would be there.

Some fairly simple analysis of that data would provide an accurate figure.

Your alts would have activity, be it rezzing items, running through your tests or whatever.

A bot stands there.


You defended a point you hadn't made. You've defended the assertion that LL could do a good survey. I agree.

You have not defended your original assertion, which is that ONLY LL could do it.
Bee Mizser
Registered User
Join date: 22 Apr 2007
Posts: 329
11-17-2008 09:33
From: Lear Cale
You defended a point you hadn't made. You've defended the assertion that LL could do a good survey. I agree.

You have not defended your original assertion, which is that ONLY LL could do it.



Who else has access to the critical data?
Lear Cale
wordy bugger
Join date: 22 Aug 2007
Posts: 3,569
11-17-2008 09:34
From: Phil Deakins
Banning traffic bots, without removing traffic rankings in the Places tab search, would make matters much worse. The current bots that are well out of the way of people would suddenly adopt new roles that would bring them in range of people and cause more lag than before. Forget about banning traffic bots - push for a change in the Places tab search that will make them useless.


I agree.
Lear Cale
wordy bugger
Join date: 22 Aug 2007
Posts: 3,569
11-17-2008 09:35
From: Bee Mizser
Who else has access to the critical data?


Anyone can make observations.
Yumi Murakami
DoIt!AttachTheEarOfACat!
Join date: 27 Sep 2005
Posts: 6,860
11-17-2008 09:35
From: Bee Mizser

Rebaking textures I suspect sends back a confirmation code to state it has been done. Once that code is known, bots can be programmed in to send that after a predetermined time to answer the request.


When you rebake textures, the client actually uploads a new texture, which is used as the texture of your avatar as seen by everyone else. The bot client would have to include the texture upload protocol to even comply. Also, the server can pick which textures it asks the client to bake together (it can send a "you just put on new clothes" message with any texture it likes) so it would be quite easy to use it as a challenge, although as you mention it would add some load.
Bee Mizser
Registered User
Join date: 22 Apr 2007
Posts: 329
11-17-2008 09:37
From: Yumi Murakami
When you rebake textures, the client actually uploads a new texture, which is used as the texture of your avatar as seen by everyone else. The bot client would have to include the texture upload protocol to even comply. Also, the server can pick which textures it asks the client to bake together (it can send a "you just put on new clothes" message with any texture it likes) so it would be quite easy to use it as a challenge, although as you mention it would add some load.



We all know LL are server load averse from the OS arguement ;)
Yumi Murakami
DoIt!AttachTheEarOfACat!
Join date: 27 Sep 2005
Posts: 6,860
11-17-2008 09:37
From: Meade Paravane

I used to camp. I ain't a bot.


It doesn't matter, you're still a bogus green dot confusing social searchers.
Curtis Dresler
Registered User
Join date: 6 Apr 2008
Posts: 155
11-17-2008 09:37
From: Elanthius Flagstaff
One thing that seems odd to me is that I've been working on an automated system to detect and count bots. We have this network of 16sqm parcels in over 1000 sims. Anyway, the project isn't working yet and maybe I'll never put in enough effort to finish it. Either way, the weird thing is that I went through about 30 or 40 sims testing this out and I saw about 10 avatars and presumably none of them were bots. How are you finding these very busy sims with thousands of people in? Whenever I move around the mainland I find it's usually 1 or 2 people per sim with very rare busy sims.


Pretty much my experience. Since our parcels (both sims, mine and my neighbors) are either not commercial or only partly for commercial purposes, the only bots we see are the sweepers, maybe one a day. You see maybe two or three avs at a time and five or six is busy, and all are non-bot avatars. Since one of my listers picks up at least seven and probably averages ten avs a day, only occasionally a sweeper, there are definitely avatars up and around in SL, as my parcels are hardly big time popular (my only stats are that vampire parcels outdraw faerie parcels 4 or 5 to one).
Argent Stonecutter
Emergency Mustelid
Join date: 20 Sep 2005
Posts: 20,263
11-17-2008 09:43
From: Phil Deakins
It would be interesting to know how many bots there are on the grid, on a daily average over a week or so, but this sort of sweep isn't going to give any such indication.
Sure it does. It may not give an accurate indication, but the only way to determine how accurate it is or isn't is to gather more data. This figure may be high or low, it may only apply to mainland, it may only apply to that continent, but complaining that it's too small a sample size is not a strong counter to it.

Why don't you do your own survey? If you're not interested in doing it yourself, why don't you script a bot to do it?
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Meade Paravane
Hedgehog
Join date: 21 Nov 2006
Posts: 4,845
11-17-2008 09:43
From: Yumi Murakami
It doesn't matter, you're still a bogus green dot confusing social searchers.

It matters if the OP wants any credibility.

If you don't know if I'm a bot or not and count me as one anyway, all that tells me is that the OP made a conclusion that SL was full of bots then got the numbers to back it up.
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Rock Vacirca
riches to rags
Join date: 18 Oct 2006
Posts: 1,093
11-17-2008 09:44
From: Meade Paravane
I just don't like the interpretation of the data.

100 avatars seen
50 of those avatars are bots or campers
50% are bots. QED

I used to camp. I ain't a bot.

/me beeps again.


While I would agree that campers are not bots, I would still characterize campers as being in the same category as bots. Don't forget that even bots are created and brought inworld by real human beings, but are then left for the purposes (mainly) of driving up traffic stats, which is what campers do, via a different mechanism.

When you consider the officially claimed population in SL is false and misleading, due to the presence of bots, campers, and alts, you can only wonder what the real number of unique game players are actually in there o a regular basis. I for one would really like to know that number, and I can well imagine why LL would not want anyone to know it.

As for the wider question of identifying bots, I would hazard a guess that the best method would be by Profile analysis, as all the bots I know that reside on a sim near me have nothing in their profiles at all except a single group membership, and most have the same birthdate.

Rock
Meade Paravane
Hedgehog
Join date: 21 Nov 2006
Posts: 4,845
11-17-2008 09:48
From: Rock Vacirca
As for the wider question of identifying bots, I would hazard a guess that the best method would be by Profile analysis, as all the bots I know that reside on a sim near me have nothing in their profiles at all except a single group membership, and most have the same birthdate.

That might catch the easy ones.. Ones owned by people who don't care if they're found out or not.

If detecting bots via profile became popular, the bot runners who don't want to be noticed would just start filling in their profiles.

When I camped, it would be somewhere social and I'd hang out and chat while making about US$.0001 an hour. Not the same bucket as bots.
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Yumi Murakami
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Join date: 27 Sep 2005
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11-17-2008 09:50
From: Meade Paravane
It matters if the OP wants any credibility.

If you don't know if I'm a bot or not and count me as one anyway, all that tells me is that the OP made a conclusion that SL was full of bots then got the numbers to back it up.


Well - if you're thinking it's all about bots, yes. But if you take the OP's conclusion as being that SL is full of _idlers_ - and thus the actual social concurrency is much less than advertised - then the numbers make sense. And, as I've said already, if the world is full of people who appear to be doing nothing and won't talk, the experience of such is not any better just because those users aren't bots.
Nimue Jewell
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Join date: 20 Mar 2007
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11-17-2008 09:52
From: Phil Deakins
Forget about banning traffic bots - push for a change in the Places tab search that will make them useless.


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