They're Baaaaack: Full Mainland sims coming tomorrow.

If you can circumvent the 503 errors, there are now two full sims available on the piece of shit auction page. Is it just my imagination, or did the old auction page work a lot better?

lol. Well my jira to bring back completed auctions just got a number from LL, there is hope yet.

So there are.

Well you're right in terms of the price of mainland but there's way too much yellow around to suggest supply is being outstripped by demand.

The amount of yellow is not a measure of demand but a measure of liquidity. A lot of land for sale but not being sold simply means there are a lot of players in the market.

Anyone who /really/ wants to sell a parcel can immediately do so and there's no mystery about how. Anyone not taking that option MUST value the land more than the tier costs. Either that or they're acting irrationally which is always a possibility of course. If demand is not exceeding supply how do you explain the rising prices? What mysterious process controls those prices in your mind?

As for LL releasing land in order to make money, uh, of course that's one reason. My point is simply that they said they would try to keep prices stable and then they went ahead and did so in exactly the manner that they said they would. Very clear and open and honest. Plus I think most people benefit from a generally stable land market rather than one that fluctuates wildly based on rumours and surprises. You can argue about whether low or high prices are better but volatility either way is definitely bad.

I can't disagree with any of that. However, I think they might want to have a working website if the only way you can bid on a sim is via website. It just does not instill me with a lot of confidence that you can't even access the friggin' auction page half the time. It's real money we are talking about plunking down for this fake land. To me it sends a signal that this world based on technology is not in the hands of a very technically proficient company. Which is a big reason why corporations are selling their sims and not buying them lately.

Kinda. But I think irrationality is manifestly obvious here. For example, the Mainland coast is full of little vacant yellow parcels priced as if shoreline were in short supply, when actually Corsica's geography has the market flooded (so to speak ) with the stuff. And just in general, folks are factoring-in hugely unrealistic expectations when evaluating their land. In this case, I think the amount of vacant yellow is a pretty good indicator of just how unrealistic ("irrational" those expectations are. And under those conditions I'm not sure it's much of a measure of liquidity: if I'm willing to sell shares at twice the market price, does that really increase a stock's liquidity?

All that said, I think neither absolute land prices nor fluctuations make much difference to SL's viability, nor to resident "consumer confidence". It just isn't a very big part of people's utility functions, except for some folks in the realty business, maybe. So bring on the auctions. Or not. It's all good.

So by releasing a bunch more really ugly granite sims, wouldn't you think that would actually drive the price of decently landscaped/terraformed sims up much higher?



Pretty will always cost more then ugly, in fact, the more ugly you make, the greater the value of the pretty.

Pushing out more ugly granite sims will do nothing for the economy. Probably Linden Lab actually caring about what they were doing might help.

I was flying around the new sims yesterday and I was taken aback by the landscape. On the one hand, the rocky land is stunning, but people never build for the land they buy, and I saw evidence of this. The older land in the region contained homes sitting on prims of grass. Looked ugly, in my opinion, but to each their own.

I don't see much demand for the rocky land, and don't see that area ending well at all. Mind, if someone had the money, there's a nice rocky hill, surrounded by green fields extending down to water (about 9 sims worth) which would make the most kick ass medieval village surrounding a castle.

So my question/curiosity...

Does LL just crank out any old sim or do they listen to what people are clamouring for? I realize continuity within a continent is needed, but if people screw with it anyway, what's the point?

They must have been listening because they dumped hundreds of waterfront sims from Nautilus and Corsica last year. Not sure whose bright idea it was to switch to the granite blob theme.

BTW, the sims for auction are already up to $1900 with a full day left to go.

For awhile it was hard to find new sims that *didn't* touch the water. After several granite sims and/or green they may start in with the waterfront again and probably sell little else. There seemed to be an evolution with sim sales. While selling Nautilus, they realized that waterfront sold at a premium--but didn't realize waterfront is still ugly if something is built just off shore. With Corsica, it seems an attempt was made to offer more waterfront with ocean sims marked "protected" in front of them. This commands an even greater premium. I'm curious to see if LL will resume selling mostly waterfront(much of it protected) in future continents and if they start to use new beach/land textures to encourage people to "upgrade".

It would seem they should release sims that people want to buy--since its all virtual land that takes up the same resources whether its waterfront or granite I don't know why not.

Land barons and that's no mystery. The people who buy the cheapest land, then flip it. The ones with bots do best, then come the ones who search manually and they flip the parcels. Then a few more engage in some minor flipping.

I own land in areas where the land has been for sale from the same people for months and they are big players in the land market.

Your average resident, there's no shortage of supply of land. Now of course with mainland sims on the market, the land barons won't be so interested in the small fry of trying to squeeze some extra out of 512M parcels, which satisfies their demand, but it's not a supply and demand issue with regards to the number of residents who want to own land, merely an issue between land barons.

It's not as if new residents are arriving and finding there is no land available for them to purchase.

Right now, the lowest priced 512s on mainland are:
One of each at 8, 8.7, 8.8 and 8.9 per metre
Then 9.1 to 9.4 in the first page of 100 in Search.
It gets to 9.7 in the second page of 100
Then there's a few 100 9.8's

These plots are mostly down-market, and 9.8/metre appears to be general rock-bottom price.
That's significantly up on what LL is said to be targeting.

Right and whose buying those parcels at the bottom end of the market? If land was half the price I don't think we'd see a huge increase in individuals buying land because the biggest barrier to land ownership isn't the initial price, it's tier or membership fees.

I respectfully disagree. A new resident could easily locate a 512m parcel or larger surrounded by ugliness. People who are merely looking for a space to create in or want to try out some cutting edge designs--this is good land for them. However, try looking for a waterfront parcel with an unblocked view where you want to build the beachouse you can't have in RL? They are out there and marked at a very high price right now. Granted, 98% of the new land being auctioned will end up a cluttered wasteland of ill conceived business ideas. However, people with an aesthetic sense are starting to gravitate toward the shores on the mainland and creating well landscaped pockets of beauty. . .there's light at the end of the mainland tunnel. If LL can create more of this type of land it would be a good thing.

Have I missed something??? After the completion of the auctions, are all bidder names still “Anonymous”?

I went to look at a 9.8 plot at random.
Just nearby there's one of Umn** H***'s abortions.
Someone has a 288m plot right in the middle of that, surrounded by the 16m plots.
They've planked down a Low prim Beach house (27 prims) - which of course is too big, and encroaches on the 16m plots - and the plot is on sale at L$6000
That includes the objects. WOW!!
Gorderonis 114,142,89

The house can also be bought separately - for L$1000.

And all around is ......... not pretty. It's hell! That's what 9.8/m can buy.

Welcome to SL!

However new residents aren't locating cheap 512M parcels to play with, the demand simply isn't there, for whatever reason, be it ad farms, the wild west nature or whatever, the demand simply isn't there.

However waterfront parcels, that's a perfect example of real supply and demand from residents and that is reflected in the prices for those plots.

Lately, 512m lots are commanding usually a higher $/m than some larger lots... I think its the rarity of the 512m post-First Land plus a fair number of new premium just wanting thier lil free bit.

Problem is, I don't dare cut 512m lots and price them in that introductory range, because all it takes is one ad cutter jerk to buy one in the middle and ruin the rest.

I can only dream of the day when they have no economic justification for doing so...

--
Limit maximum sale price based on land parcel size, to combat ad farms
http://jira.secondlife.com/browse/MISC-894

The old system used to reveal the names after an auction was closed. I don't think the new system gives you any kind of bidder history after the fact.

I respectfully disagree - the 'mainland land barons' (as opposed to what I do) won't rationally buy what they can't resell in X amount of time, based on tier charges.

Which comes down to consumer demand in the end.

Extreme case to illustrate the point: without consumers, or consumers only willing to pay $L 500 for 512m of land (for instance) land barons wouldn't even bother.

I suspect a lot of wannabee land hustlers end up like day traders - dreams of getting rich only result in their losing money on average, and making the market unpredictable and sucky for everyone else.

Shameless Linden hussies, timing these auctions with tax refund time.

"I do not need another sim."
"I do not need another sim."
"I do not need another sim."
"I do not need another sim."
"I do not need another sim."

You need a double beachfront protected water sim. You need a double beachfront protected water sim. You need a double beachfront protected water sim.

See my sig. Give in to the voices...

One of the sims (a green waterfront next to a protected water sim) is already up to US$3500 with a day to go. Gotta love those zany auction price driver uppers.

That's just over 14/m for Fyrebird.
I'd say that the current end user market price for the inland parts of that would be about 15/m -- max.


Even zanier is that the sim right beside it (Starship), which is almost a clone in location and auction deadline has reached US$2102 - about 8.5/m
Someone(s) keeping their powder dry on that one until they see how Fyrebird pans out?
Starship auction closes 1 minute after Fyrebird. That should be exciting for somebody.

It's a funny old SL.
To my mind, Starship has way more interesting terrain, with a slightly irregular coastline and some nice variations of gradients from the hill. That could be really nice with the right builds. Fyrebird is just a boring gentle slope into the water.
Your World, Your Imagination (is Flat Green?)



Meanwhile in the middle of a granite desert not too far away, Nina sim has got to US$2052 - about 8.30/m - with a few hours to go.
Cheapest crap 512s currently get to 9.5/m in the first 100 of Search.
Cut and dump Nina at 9.5/m and make an immediate of nearly US$300?
Go a fraction lower and take over the first few pages of Land search?
Most of the plots would then go into flip mode, with the ad-plots being the slowest movers.


So much for new sims driving the end-user price per metre down to about 6-ish or 7-ish !!
It's early days though.