SecondLife in 2011

What do you guys think SL will be like in 2011? i chose 2011 because it's not very far away but far away enough to see some big changes.

Some of the changes LL has proposed in there recient blog posts leads me 2 think that by 2010 we will see some of the following changes

*Infinite viewable trees/terrain (this, believe it or not wouldn't be that big a performance hit but it would make SL look a whole lot more immersive)

*Dynamic shadows/lighting and clouds casting shadows (this has been needed/requested allot : this would also fix the indoors sunset problems)

*Shaders, real time bumpmapping and dynamic reflections (this is on the cards for VERY soon)

*Some kind of weather/rain system, where prims can stop rain (so it doesn't rain inside), also Nimble (3D volumetric clouds) will soon be implemented

*Land will be conciderably cheaper and there will be either free or very cheap ad-supported land/sims (this will bring out the less rich skilled to construct amazing cities etc), SL will have open sourced it's server code and invented some kind of grid where servers can plug into.

*Better and fully customizable trees (Speedtree) and far far far better avatar meshes

*A way to upload meshes directly into SL AND make meshes from prim objects (there will be some sort of size or polygon limit of course)

*An animation system to directly animate/move objects (so the animations don't look so crap)

*Prim limits will still be limited to 15000 prims, but because of some cleaver meshing system this won't matter as we can have buildings with really good detail on them and small items such as guns, detailed furniture, attachments etc will only cost 1 prim (object)

*We will be allowed to make larger prims, proberly up to 100m but not for at least a year

*And finally for physics, i think that avatar and vehicle physics will be tuns better, we will have joints (back?!) so we can make swinging doors n stuff, particles will act slightly better and we will have more control over physics settings for objects : also nearly forgot to add, we will finally be able to swim!

what are your opinions as to the future, what do you think will be added/removed from SL?

I think proper shadows and light-blocking would be the biggest single improvement.

Small changes to avatar mesh to give smoother joint articulation

Flexible objects able to be non-phantom, so hair lies against skin but doesn't go through it!

In-world scuplting, or possibly the option to convert all the linked prims in an object into a single complex prim.

Increased maximum prim size and/or prim limits.

The ability to absolutely prevent any object from encroaching on your land, even by 1 centimetre! A short encroachment period, maybe 1 minute, coud be allowed for neighbours to rez and position a building.

Downloadable standalone LL sims, with complete inventory transfer with SL and linkable to the main grid.

In-world message boards for individuals and groups.

I don't know if Linden Labs would have all this in place by 2011 - thats only 3 years away, and in the past 5 years they've not even managed to get the grid and asset servers stable.

However I do think that if LLs aren't doing these things, someone else will be. There are already options for alternate grids like Openlife, and some of these alternatives have up to 45,000 prims per sim. In 3 years it will be possible to migrate your avatar into any of these grids and take your inventory with you.

Land in SL will never be free for all because its priced by users according to demand, not according to LLs decision. But you'll be able to build your own land on your own computer, for free, and allow avatars visiting from other worlds/grids into your island.

Real time shadows is already implimented. You can get the client in there public svn repository.

Edit: It's /branch/shadow-draft/ I think, been awhile since I built it.

Ooh - must try that! I knew they'd done trials and I've seen screenshots.

Kinda silly for me to post that without instructions.

Copyed from SLDev:

So getting the awesome out of that branch is a little obscure:

1) Make sure atmospheric shaders and avatar hardware skinning are enabled.
2) Make sure the debug setting RenderDeferred is set to FALSE
3) Set RenderUseFBO to TRUE
4) Set RenderDeferred to TRUE

It's only been tested on GeForce 8 cards in Windows (Vista and XP), but I don't see why it shouldn't work in linux.
I'd be amazed if it works in OSX since it relies on branching in the shader and a large instruction count limit.
It's also quite unoptimized and VERY experimental.

I've just looked at some of the videos of SL with dynamic shadows. They are breathtaking. At least as big a leap as WindLight, if not bigger. The effects are stunning. (well, actually, it just makes it look more like RL, LOL).

Looks like shadows are looming - I can't wait!

Here's a video of the shadow draft client, I don't know where to download it :[

http://youtube.com/watch?v=fHjibHylkkU&feature=related

Firstly, I disagree on the free land thing too, but not for the reasons you gave.

Yes, anyone will be able to get the opensource server codes and start their own sims, but the expense of buying servers and paying tier to LL (LL may opensource servers, but they are going to keep strict control on anything that connects to the grid, for 'Security' reasons, wink wink). External server tier will likely be cheaper due to the expense on the server owners, but I doubt it will go below the per sim rate on mainland tier (which will likely be less by then, but not insanely cheap). Servers will likely hold multiple sims as LL's do now, so considering the physical server maintenance expenses, and the per sim tier, the only companies that will hold external servers will be the Dreamland-like companies that will rent out at least a few dozen sims, and own the servers to boot. It wouldn't make much sense for average residents to do it, unless they were technically savvy, early adopters who just had to have an SL server of their very own to be truly happy in life, but LL has driven most of those away this past year and a half with all their zany, bells-and-whistle changes and bans.

With opensource servers, LL run private sims, with the exception of the nonprofit/educational ones, days are numbered (which why I sold the last one I owned a few months ago, when I started seeing where SL is headed, and used the proceeds to buy the majority of a cute, mainland snow sim). They will be abandoned more often than sold, as nobody will be able to pay off their tier on them due to the networks of specialty/party sims I will describe below. Mainland will be for the RL poor and working class folks who come to SL. Think of 2011 mainland as the inner cities or small, working-class, satellite cities of RL. These will be littered with the spinning ad boxes, but then they already are. The good mainland sims will be like the rural poor/working class communities. Little clutters of residential, rental parcels who want a nice view and community feel, but nobody with significant income or use to the large corporations who will set up and maintain the specialty/party sims, will forever after populate the well maintained parts of mainland.

As a result of these changes, mainland will be cheaper, L$4-5 per meter is likely to stay as an average price for mainland a while though. By 2011, I'm seeing L$2.5-3 as the average. There will be short bursts in population and mainland prices when LL comes out with another PR blitz (look for one when server code goes open source and companies that were gun shy to buy their own sims suddenly start doing so because they suddenly start seeing benefits when they control the server, the code, and sim security), but the market is unlikely to collapse, nor are private sims going to be ad supported, as they'll be gone for the most part, their servers cannibalized by LL to create new mainland due to the SL population increase. Some of these new residents will be working class and poor people in RL, and they will need to live somewhere when they can’t get a place on a specialty/party sim, as they don’t meet the preferred demographic.

As for ads, they don't work as well in SL as they do in other RL and internet venues. Modern advertising is less about making everyone aware of the product than about getting the RIGHT PEOPLE to see and try your products. Narrowcasting, not Broadcasting.

Covenants and Zoning (Bay City is a testing ground), based on RL market research, will be how companies draw just the residents they think will be most likely to buy their product or service to their sims. Whoever owns the sim, or cluster of sims, will determine who they want and who they don’t and build the sims (and configure the servers) around those folks. There will be subtle ads on these specialty/party sims but they will not be like billboards or spinning boxes or video commercials. Instead it will be worked into the theme of the island, and the free objects given to residents 'chosen' to rent or live freely there. Parties and contests and games and fun activities every night (or in some cases 24/7) for residents, but only for residents and guests, thanks to the greater ability to control who gets into your sim, what they do there, and how long they stay, will also promote the products and services. Think of these ads as those you see at sponsored events, but still less directly visible. Just as everyone in sitcoms are middle class or rich, so those permitted to rent on these privately-owned specialty/party sims will be so in RL, meeting the tight demographic the sim owner needs. Specialty/party sims will be like gated communities, but the gate and gatekeepers will be programmed into the server.

If you don’t meet the demographics for the specialty/party sims, you will live on LL-owned mainland, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. It just won’t be as exciting as many of the specialty/party sims. Or more to the point, it will be up to residents there to create their own entertainment. This will be where small, in-world businesses will thrive, and it will also have a lot of underground stuff going on, like the dirtiest sex clubs, etc. (Expect to see the ageplay and bestiality bans to ignored like the adfarm bans. Gambling bans will hold, except that casinos will be on other virtual networks in other servers around the world. The currencies of the multiple virtual worlds will be traded so often, as to allow US residents to gamble on international sites, with no legitimate way for C.C. companies to keep track, thus destroying the spirit of the anti-gambling laws, while keeping them on the books, like the politicians intended). Personally, without the physical danger of poorer neighborhoods that exists in RL, I’d much prefer to live on my mainland sims than in the tightly controlled specialty/party sims, so I’ll be happy as a clam and a landlady for renters. Despite the perversion, there is more vitality in red light districts and among free thinkers, IMHO.

Hopefully, deprecated.

I hope they get it done , since the World is ending in 2012.

I predict that by then Chaos will still piggy back his internet service off the unsecured networks in his neighborhood.

Don't you think they will have instituded a ceiling on Alts by then?

After a good nights sleep i have returned.

You can get the client SOURCE CODE here http://svn.secondlife.com/trac/linden/browser/branches/shadow-draft

Click the download in other formats link at the bottom.

Then:
http://secondlife.com/developers/opensource/downloads/2008/05/slviewer-artwork-release-r87341.zip

And for windows:
http://secondlife.com/developers/opensource/downloads/2008/05/slviewer-win32-libs-release-r87341.zip

Or for mac:
http://secondlife.com/developers/opensource/downloads/2008/05/slviewer-darwin-libs-release-r87341.tar.gz

Then Build as per instructions here, ignoring the "Get source" parts:
https://wiki.secondlife.com/wiki/Get_source_and_compile

At the risk of being a bit silly:

1. There will be a lot more users, many of them noobs having discovered the grid for the first time.

And they will be pretty mainstream. Yeap, Disneyfication of the grid. Even your uncool grandma will have heard of it by now, and she'll be walking around in a barbie escort avatar and not even realise it.



2. More shiny. We'll see another generation of graphics card performance by then, which won't do much for the cutting edge of SL but will rock the world of performance for everyone on the trailing edge.

They will actually be able to see beyond 96m draw distance for the first time.

It's funny, listening to people describe the grid and their hopes for it - the vast majority can't see a full region at any kind of decent framerate. Instead, just this weird little local bubble as they move around, with settings slammed at minimums. I'm amazed they stay here, quite frankly - but they do.

Oh yes, the bubble effect, I remember that when I first started.

Since then my computer has seen some massive upgrades.

I manage a few sims, so what I do is fly up in the air in the courner of them all and set my draw distance to 512 and watch over everything that happens. It's quite a difference.

Also quite fun watching people be perplexed at how I am watching them from 2 sims away.

That's sooooo 2007.

I predict in 2011, people with bad computer's wont be able to play anymore. LL wont lose many for that reason sense I think nearly everyone and there mothers have windlight .

2011: The Grid is finally freed of the 'Holier than thou', 'I must protect the people', 'I have my rights and they trump all of your rights' types.

Why? Linden Lab will finally have people employed in their G Team that can actually read between the lines and won't ignore subtleties.

I hope by then SL will truely be a seamless world where walking from one sim to the next dosnt mean 30 seconds of floating in the air or falling followed by a rubber band effect that brings you (hopefully) back to the Sim edge.

/me dosnt have windlight lol 64mb card fail. but meh on that point

Shortly thereafter it will be discovered that many SL users have gone blind or insane from staring at Windlight, leaving only those with bad computers to keep SL going....

i welcome our new Goofy Overlords.....





i predict that it wont matter as many will have moved on to the next level of virtual gaming/life.

lolz finally got my internet connection sorted out, got by now fyi

Maybe SL won't but the opposition and linked grids may have all the cool stuff