End of days for SL?

It seems for the past 4 to 5 months or at least for me that Second Life has been on its way down so to speak. I mean it seems its one thing after another. Problems with the system, the law, things just not working. Everyday seems to bring more and more. I am just wondering as a business owner... Is this spelling the end of Second Life as we have all known it you think? I am not saying its going to vanish however I see what might some might call a modern day depression coming to SL with all this negative attention and crack downs. I read about people like Anshe Chung who made over 1 million in U.S. and I ask myself is this even still possible for anyone in SL anymore or did she hit SL at the right time. You know, in the right place at the right time type of thing. SL has been a rather "free ride" for some time now in alot of ways. Not much law, anything goes type of stuff but that seems to becoming to a end fast. This thread is not to fight about whats right and whats wrong but to just ask.... Is it even possible do you think for the basic SL person to turn a really good profit in the coming future with the way things are starting to go? Makes me wonder if the good days are gone in SL with a slow fade out.

And lets not even get started on the fact that alot of goverments want to start taxing Second Life money.

SL is just experiencing growth.

The problems are a natural reaction to growth. It's actually a sheep in wolfs clothing. (yes, I know that's backwards...it's supposed to be!)

Validity in SL will come with:

1--Neutralization of the platform...control in more hands than just LL

2--Realization of consumers that US$0.10 is NOT ridiculously expensive...in fact, it's ridiculously CHEAP. (ie...prices of stuff need to go UP)

3--Realization of residents that SL is NOT a game like WoW or SWG...it is an online environment most easily envisioned as a potential replacement of the internet.


We're just hitting turbulence on the way up.

By the way...you forgot to add the "No, it's getting better" line...which...for me...it is.

lol good point, I did forget that one Your right on one thing you pointed out. Alot of items in SL are marked too cheap. I mean I see alot of things that are way low in price which ok we all like that but it does hurt in the long run I think. The other thing I think about is when are the really big boys gonna notice the money they can make in SL and come in. Will it drive the little guys out of business? AH! Too much preasure! lmao

I mean think about how much money some of these companies that deveope games could make in SL if some of their graphics staff started making skins and such? With the kind of resources they have it would smash alot of the small business people in SL don't you think?

It was slow last spring too. I'm not surprised.

The big boys coming in will have an impact on you business owners for sure, just how much remains to be seen. It will also have an impact on people like me, your customer. I am not here to run a business, or make money, this is entertainment for me, i spend here. I am not a fan of the Corporations, I avoid them whenever I can. If they come to dominate Sl as they do RL, it will drive me away, thats for sure.

Last month, a little over 400 people made more than US$2000 in SL. US$2k is far, far below the poverty line in the US. The IRS would waste more money than it brought in if it started taxing the public at-large.

Myself I am getting out of the business end due to medical reasons but it just all makes me wonder with all this negative press as of late and so much attention from the law on SL. It's too bad, I really love SL. I was reading some place that Australia wanted to find a way to tax Lindens before they are even turned into cash! Wish I still had the article. Thats just crazy.

We find what we are looking for.

If you are looking for the bad, there's plenty to be had.

If you are looking for the good, there's plenty to be had of that too.

Seems like every time there's a policy change or a spate of tech problems, the inevitable reaction from a few posters is to proclaim, "This is the beginning of the end!"

Look, SL is growing, its resources are under strain, and the policies are having to be adjusted to meet the realities of new attention from authorities in different countries. It is not going to be a smooth ride, and the Lindens have made and will continue to make mistakes along the way.

But it is unavoidable and things will settle out over time.

Just really really tired of the gloom and doomers.

I can understand what you mean but you have to admit, this is a little beyond the normal everyday normal negative things in SL. Maybe I am wrong. Just hard to ignore all these news articles coming out. First the FBI in SL now the German police... Guess I am just paranoid.

Agreed, Mickey! It's spring, people are outside, and SL is just settling down. It's not a depression, it's a natural cycle in any economy. I'd be a little worried if any global economy experienced unchecked growth for any long period of time.

Dude, you haven't been around long enough to know the normal everyday negative things of SL. There has yet to be a time when the end of the world wasn't nigh. Prim taxes, stipend bonuses ending, end of funding for events, end of funding for teaching classes, ageplay, banning of Prokovy, stipend reductions, free accounts, no account verification.... SL has been "ending" since beta.

WOW easy! HOLLY CRAP! If looks could kill... eerrr... uuummm wait a minute... I mean if threads could kill

If I am wrong then I am wrong, just wondering what other people think. All I know is when you have the police starting to run investigations into something its never good little alone from more then one country. Call it paranoid, just going by what I see. I think even a person who just signed up could read that writting on the wall. It does not take somebody who has been on SL for 4 years to figure out that the goverments and their police agencies are starting to take a very hard line look at SL. Even Second Life as a company has figured that out. With all that kind of negative press, like it or not it can't help business I would think.

just wondering what other people think. Thats all.

Banning of Profky?

[deleted by poster]

the old chat rooms in msn. and yahoo. all had the FBI . in there..in fact they were posting in the groups about things of this nature "missing people. child porn etc. this is nothing new to the net or Sl. as the op said, Sl is growing and finding its way.

Anshe certainly had a lot of the "right place, right time" thing. She was around when animations were first introduced, and there was a "run" on them which made her a lot of money, which she used to kick-start her land business - and there were fewer serious land dealers then (were there actually any before Anshe?), and so thus competition in the market.

(Oh, and just to nitpick, Anshe didn't make US$1m. Her business has a net worth of US$1m, which means if she sold all her land, she'd have US$1m.)

It is unlikely that there will be another product in SL with the same universal appeal and barriers to entry as land. On the other hand, the real-life companies coming into SL need people who know SL to work for them, and that can be a better way of earning money than the wilds of the SL business frontier. (I know some people who are afraid the SL business frontier will become obsolete, which seems fairly unlikely.)

"it is an online environment most easily envisioned as a potential replacement of the internet."

A potential easily confounded by mismanagement. I don't need an ID to jump on the internet, for instance. And it's also possible SL has more in common with the dot.com bubble. Though you may be correct that it should not be understood as another WoW or online game, it nevertheless is in direct competition with such entertainment, especially for those seeking escape from the restrictions of their first life, or socialization, or adventure.

The question has to be answered individually: Is this the end days of SL.... for me? And when enough individuals answer that particular question "yes" then you might say the platform has gone through its lifecycle.

On the plus side, I created my first clothing item today! Wheee! Only took me six months... *laughs*

I personally would love to see SL crash and burn..Just for malicious glee. I however don't think it will any time in at least the next 18 months. Why 18 months you say? Well why not? It's a good number. I just hope I am online the last day when all the land barons are trying to cash out thier worthless lindens or sell thier suddenly worthless land..The panic that ensues. And a welcome area full of clueless noobs asking "Ho du i make muny? I have a sadistic streak I suppose. I loved Secondlife..But Secondlife showed me no love in return. Sure is fun to build things in..Well..It was a while ago..Now it's just fun to watch it implode on it'self with self absorbed abandon.

People don't need ID's to get into SL, either. Though there are areas of each that are password-restricted, and on the Internet areas that are IP-restricted. There are also areas on the Internet where one must verify such things as age, identity, etc. (And boy am I glad I'm not still using Archie, Veronica, Lynx, and Pine! Though back in the day I loved that stuff.)



That's correct. For the time being, SL has never been more popular than it is right now. The numbers of people coming in greatly exceed the numbers of people calling it quits.

The interesting question is...what's the next new thing in SL that is going to make somebody a RL tycoon?

In response to the poll question, i`ve voted "not sure"

I think SL is experiencing many changes and were seeing like a survival of the fittest type thing taking place.


I think the bigger businesses have only been slightly dented, while the smaller ones seem to be suffering the most. Theres a few reasons for this (Eg many of the larger businesses have a strong 'word of mouth' system going, so while people are having problems with search or just crap coming up for answers in search, they know to go to <insert name here> for things)


There are even more changes planned for the future, its kind of unfortunate because it does seem that the more updates, the harder it becomes for people to even access their second lives.

I think SL will be around for awhile..a long while. But it seems its becoming a place where only the strong survive. (Of course i mean those whose computer and patience can handle everything they keep dishing out)

I think Mickey James made a very interesting point here - making the viewer open source is one thing - but if they make they platform open source SL would explode*

Imagine if you could rent a server somewhere ( pretty cheap these days ) and run your own sims - tha somehow hook back to the main grid - if this was th case then SL really would be a new type of "internet"

(*although it's unclear what the revenue model in this would be for LL other than they would control the economy )

In answer to the poll - I think SL is evolving and diversifying certainly not the end...

SL's platform is based on RL in so many ways, and growth/levelling out, has come and gone in waves. Looking back on SL's history you can almost plot the rises and falls, due to such things as animations being introduced, flexi, media technologies, primed objects such as hair and accessories. With each step on the SL ladder have come an influx of users and a growth in the economy, with each bad press/incendent has seen a levelling off. Overall SL is growing like a child's world, full of discovery and pitfalls in the learning processes.

Clubs have come and gone, business's folded and burnt, but as in RL, others have sprung up in the place and in some cases, there has been expotential growth overall. There has never been so much choice before in SL, but that statement will always remain true, until something drastic happens.

With regards to the value of things in SL being related to RL currencies, some have indicated that they are too cheap. Well from one perspective, exactly what are those items actually worth?.. in reality they represent a market value in relation to 'earnings' and cost of 'living' in SL. The SL economy isn't related to the value of the USD, simply because it's an internationally used platform. The exchange rate of a single country would therefore influence the whole economy. Consider that a person in a country where in comparision, the cost of living is higher or lower that say the United States of America, was to try and compete with another person, what one considers cheap, another considers too expensive. If you base this on actually earning a living from SL as a sole income. Some would make an absolute killing, where as others could not compete with say cheap labour. The USD has an 'influence' on the SL economy due to the exchange method for getting currencies out of SL and paying/investing into SL. But choosing the 'right time' to do both will gain you very little unless you are talking huge sums of L$'s which is for the most part, capped by LL and rightfully so.

Hmm the role of money...

I just wiki'd money and came up with some interesting terminology which appear to apply to SL:

"Fiat Money" [[The term “fiat” currency is also used specifically to refer to a currency that is not pegged or fixed to a mass of precious metal]]

"Fungible" [[Fungibility is different from liquidity. A good is liquid (or tradable) if it can be exchanged for money or another different good. A good is fungible if one example of the good is indistinguishable from another example of the same good.

Fungibility does not imply liquidity and liquidity does not imply fungibility. Diamonds are easily bought and sold (the trade is liquid) but individual diamonds are not interchangeable (diamonds are not fungible). Zimbabwe dollar bank notes are interchangeable in London (they are fungible there) but they are not easily traded there (they are illiquid in London).
]]

So our Lindens are an Partly-fungiable Fiat Currency - underwritten be a central bank ( ie. LL. ) who guarantee the value of linden up to a certain daily limit - cap.. Actualy I'm not sure if lindens are fungiable or un-fungiable...


Sorry if this is slightly off topic - I created a new thread here...
/327/b0/183226/1.html

PS. Everybody should try and slip the word fungiablity into a conversation today

Good points AWM Mars. Something to think about.