Watching population growth

Over the past year, we have seen the average number of people online grow from 2,000 to about 30,000. We had a peak of 40,000 about a month ago.

In the past month, it seems like the growth has stopped. I haven't really run the numbers, so maybe I am wrong, but I am wondering what might account for it.

I am not looking for flames about how the damn Lindens should fix the &$^#%* widget server.

Perhaps it is an equilibrium point...too many people leads to low performance leads to people quitting leads to fewer people online leads to more people staying leads to too many people, and 34,000 is the magic number.

Maybe it is something else.

When will we see 40,000 on a regular basis? Or even more...

It could be the grids so unstable at 37,000+ a lot of people get logged off.

The AFK camper zombies dont know they got logged off and thus dont log back on ..

Thus theres a bit of a decreasing online population wall caused by the instability.

Sort of like the sound barrier i guess. The Log Out barrier.


Another possibility is theres only so many good Camper sites/ Popular regions - Thus by default camper Zombies cant get a place to rot while Logged in and so many log off during peak times.

It would be interesting to know if the Average number of users on a 24 hour cycle is up, instead of just the peak times.

It would be even more interesting to know how many non Camper Zombie/ Non Bot Avatars are logged in Vs the total - but were never going to get that information.

Still - it could be a more simply explained phenomena - The Weather is nicer and more people are outside.

Concurrent logins will NOT rise until SL is capable of supporting them.
LL have run into a self limiting 'wall' - even if it's free, people will not persist in trying to use a platform that cannot reliably support more than the current maximum.

By reliably I mean, function as intended/advertised. The giveaway is when the signups figure continues to rise, no matter how slowly, and concurrent logins doesn't.

Hopefully this point hasn't escaped LL. If it has, then SL has reached a saturation point and, regardless of 'signups', will no longer grow.

The tell-tale figure is the one figure LL will not divulge to the public - the retention rate. Rumour has it that it's abysmal, somewhere between 5 and 10% - which I believe may be optimistic. Time will tell.

Or maybe the LL is actually limiting logins like they said during the 'data loss' times when the grid goes from 30k to 37k. *snickers* Okay, even I can't type that with a straight face.

No, I do think some of 'growth' slowing is due entirely to glitches and bugs. The point at which the grid starts becoming unstable, logins are naturally limited by the fact that people get sick of logging in and not being able to do anything. And as they realize that once the grid hits a certain numerical point, there isn't any point in logging in, because they will be facing those issues almost every time. The stress isn't worth it, on other words.

Plus, word has gotten out that the grid is buggy.. unstable at it's most popular times. So, why bother trying to sign up for a platform that you can't exactly use during peak times?

Maybe... I spend more time outdoors now, because I'm building more and fiddling with the landscape. But I'm still logged in!

Spring / Summer arrival in the Northern hemisphere will have an impact on logins. People are able to get outside more

I could also be due to LL stopping their advertising crusade. I found SL due to seeing one of the Lindens on TV here (UK) plugging it )

I don't buy the better weather with spring and summer as the reason for the concurrent online population. According to LL the resident sign ups are chugging away at nearly half a million a month. That, in my opinion, would easily offset any login reduction due to real life endeavors.

I find myself not bothering to even attempt sometimes when the numbers get above 30 K (like they are at the present time). I get a little hesitant between 25 and 30 K but will usually give it a shot. I think the problem with many is the same as for me. I like to build and play around with prims on my property or go to events to socialize with friends listen to live music ,etc. Lag really puts a damper on activities like that. Rather than fight it and get all pee'd off I just stay away.

It also could be that LL is really throttling the concurrent logins like they suggested a few months ago and simply not admiting it. That could account for so many "I can't log in" threads lately.

Whatever the cause, it does appear to be some sort of a wall Second Life has reached. In the past we would have difficulties when 10 K, 20 K, 25 K, 30 K and 35 K were online. But a week or so later things would level out and we would start over with a new concurrent "limit". But for a month or more we've sort of remained stagant at 35 K. It looks like that's all LL can do..............they've scaled it as far as it will scale.

We have lost some neighbors recently with a thriving business because they didn't want to deal with the lack of action LL has dealing with griefers and how hard it is to log on and stay on.

I'm on the border myself these days at over $200 tier and learning to build. I decided to invest and give it a try but the service is beyond poor. I'll hang in and hope but I think LL should make the foundation strong first instead of adding voice and special access for old friends. I'm a pretty typical consumer maybe a bit more excited about new tech than most.

Unless something unusual happens next week, this is the first month Supply Linden sales will end up far under last month's sales that I've seen. I'd guess they'll be L$75 million short, or $280,000 US less. That has to hurt, even if they were careful and never saw it as expected income

I would say that the ban on casino advertising is having its effect. That's the only thing that has really changed this month. Looks like casinos were a big part of the economy.

It very well could be because only so many people really want in on SL. The retention rate is slightly lower than 10% and there is not really that much to do. I have many real life friends who have tried SL, and out of all 15 or 20 of them, only my brother is still here. Most people tell me that they can't find anything to do other than fly around, and when they do, all they see is porn and spinning ads all over the place.

There is also a VERY large learning curve for building and scripting. Sure, lots of people say "go out and learn to build and script!" the problem is that both take a good deal or practice and we are in a low attention rate society in most cases.

Then there are casinos. Casinos were something that everyone and their mother with no scripting or building skills would try and set up to make some money. I mean really, all you needed to do was buy a few slot machines and poker tables and place them somewhere. Then just place an ad. Pretty lame, yes, but it got many noobs to feel important, like they had a little business. Now that people have to be a bit more original again with what seems to be a faze out of gambling in SL, less people are staying. That and the gamblers are probably starting to leave or at least not join SL as much.

The opportunity cost is also very high. I could sit here and learn to build for several weeks and eventually sell my creation for pennies or I could use that time in the real world making real money which I can use to do things in the real world. This cost goes up if you live in the UK, EU or the US, where salaries and cost of living are higher.

Another big complaint I get is about all the corporations. Most people I tell to try SL play WOW and other such MMORPGs. Most hate corporations and once they see the flood of them coming to SL, they just say "forget it". Who wants to spend their free time being spammed to death in a virtual world?

I stay because I like following the legal and economical issues found in SL, but from what I have found, most people are not interested in sitting on a virtual world, scripting, building, and following virtual economies, while at the same time the only kind of "hunting" they can do, is hunting for a high paying camping chair which they can sit in and be bored out of their mind for a few hours while earning $0.25 worth of Linden Dollars, hehe.

Lets also not forget that the whole media hype has begun to slow and the number of corporations grabbing headlines with “We are the FIRST virtual whatever” has all but gone the way of the Dodo Bird. Thank god.

Just what I have experienced and seen. I don't even think it is a bad thing. I liked SL better when there were a max of 2k people online at a time. Not like you can see more than 30 of them on a sim at any given time anyways.



Good luck!

Something to consider: the new user spending curve.

A new person finds SL, is hesitant... and either leaves before spending anything, or 'buys in'.

Once bought in, say, realistically at around the 30 day mark, the spending increases wildly.

1. outfitting the avatar
2. percieved need for toys (many think they should have a vehicle to get around)
3. premium account + intent for 512m, or rental land (30-60 day mark, I'd guess)
4. discovery that 512m is nowhere near enough; more land (60 day+)
5. creating the 'alt' for a more varied experience (hard to pin 'when' down on this)
6. outfitting the alt, land for alt, &c &c

So this is a very anecdotal guess, but say for all the people that came in during the late 4Q2006 Big Boom (let's call em Boomers)... many are all toiling away on their small plots right now, expanding them to moderate size, and have spent something like 100-500 USD.

Boomers are online but not nearly so much; much of the socialisation that brought them here has already happened. The first 'toke' that got them hooked is over, and now they are just another grid addict.

Now let's look at the Oldbies.

What do they spend? Well, it varies a lot, but I'd guess the #1 answer is 'not so much'. Sure, there are some with a few sims lying around... but guess what, these are often paid for by Boomers! Via the products that the Oldbies sell to them.

Other Oldbies aren't even on the grid much any more, and lurk on forums. Many don't so much buy items, as are given them by their other Oldbie friends in whatever industry. Oldbies are online alright... but not so easy to find on the second life grid. They are off playing the chic game-du-jour (warcraft, eve, &c) with their other oldbie friends.

* * * * *

Let's bring this all back around to log-ins.

Boomers are going to fade a bit; but likely a substantial portion of the 30k+ we see. Oldbies remaining about flat; declining - we never had more than 2k concurrency anyway, ourselves (heh, marginalisation, here we come!).

New users are also a substantial fraction, but the 'big concurrency spike' is over for now; we'll see another resurgence in 4Q2007.

In the summer there will be a demographic shift; more adults will go on vacations, but college kids will be 'off'... but this is pretty much a 50/50 tradeoff and is more user churn than anything else, over in 90 days. I've noticed, incidentally, that the young, semi-broke college crowd still manages to outspend their parents on digital entertainment.

What have I got to back up my baloney? Just knowing thousands of people, watching the land business, watching prices, hearing thousands of personal stories. I can't back this up, and I'm sure I've got at least some of it wrong.

But my business strategy is based on some of my suppositions you see here, and well, I just crossed 1M square meters the other day, with more demand now than I've ever had. For me, that's possibly validation (though not 100% verifiable).

Desmond, it could be that the demand is for land that doesn't have the ads and porn. That could be a consistent demand for awhile. To establish and protect a good SL experience first so island buyers should do well for awhile as well as furnishings, etc.

Good hang out places are needed and group activities, games too.

As a platform, SL is far too buggy to succeed just on that and once the novelty is gone, what else is there but to find a nice place to explore from or leave.

Lot of good thoughts here, and I think all of them factor in.

(Except the throttling the log-in, cause I think if they did that, someone would report it here, as they did that one time.)

I noted the lower amount of Lindens printed, too - I just hadn't connected it with the casinos thing. That probably explains that.

There's also the apparent new dauntingness and bugginess of Orientation Island, or whatever it's called, where most new players start out at.

But of all the possible factors - including, for some, not finding anything of interest once you are in - my number-one theory is SL just doesn't WORK well enough anymore, free or not. It is a whole lot more buggy, unpredictable, and unstable than it was when I joined.

coco

Back in November and December, I was trying to haul in every likely RL friend I had to keep me company in SL -- my co-workers who were into gaming already, cutting edge web designers, anyone who would be intrigued by the mix of creativity and high tech.

I don't do that anymore. Every time I feel the impulse to ask "Have you heard of SL?" of somone new, I bite my tongue. There is simply no way, given the current grid instability, that I'm going to recommend SL to anyone and still keep my credibility.

I'm already hooked, so I'm willing to put up with the grid issues to get inworld, but if I'd encountered this level of difficulty when I first stepped foot in SL, I can't say I would have survived. The inworld SL learning curve pales in comparison to the RL learning curve of trying to deal with the SL application. Even the RL PAYMENT system is borked, which really boggles the mind.

Anyone know the population of SL Voice ? I know for sure I would be there, but for me, yet to be able to log in though

How many online now in Sl Voice? plus(+) How many online now in regular SL??=a new online total????

A lot of people have disappeared/moved to and prefer Sl Voice.

"Still - it could be a more simply explained phenomena - The Weather is nicer and more people are outside."

My impression was that the international community accounted for a substantial percentage of new residents. Brazilians in particular seem to be a large community, and for the Southern Hemisphere, this weather explanation doesn't fit.

Active % of residents in the top 10 countries

Country Percentage

United States 26.78%

Germany 13.53%

France 8.17%

United Kingdom 6.56%

Netherlands 5.42%

Brazil 4.73%

Italy 3.99%

Spain 2.96%

Canada 2.76%

Denmark 2.61%

I was thinking that with the more international flavor, perhaps we should be looking at when people are logging on. It may be that there was an American cycle before, with most people logging in during the evening hours in American time zones; now there may still be over 20k people logged in during American business hours or those wee hours when Americans sleep.

I like this post

But if you look at it cynically it almost sounds like Second Life is one big Ponzi scheme

=pPPppPP

It isn't really, although my portrayal leaves out some key facts and likely inadvertently made it look that way.

Most specifically, that the average player buys a bit of land and hangs onto it for years, to use as a sort of digital 'home away from home' to be with their friends.

It's not the *highest* dollar expenditure, maybe. Perhaps they blew 500-1000 USD during the 'honeymoon' period, when they first fell in love with the grid.

But later, yeah, everyone still pays in maybe 15-25 bucks a month for what is essentially not too different than a WoW subscription... the difference is, it's mostly social, and a creative outlet too.

So the real long term 'deliverable' here is a digital canvas for creative control, and a place to call home.... digital entertainment, conferencing, and playground.

That's why the grid isn't a Ponzi, even though a lot of people tend to spend a lot up front.

In a way, it's sort of like buying a house - spend a lot up front, but still spend as time goes on.

I dunno. From the point of view of people dealing in in-world commerce, their sales depend critically on new people signing up. That results in completely a unsustainable commercial landscape.

Wait a moment? hasn`t Llabs said over and over again there is a LARGE Japanese group living on Second Life?

Where am I in this Percentage? I am Japanese and In Japan. what about China, korea, etc...... If this is correct then what LLabs is aying about asians on Second Life is not true at all! less then 2% OMG come on!

Luth you have a point. And June is nearing soon. you know waht that means? SCHOOLS out and tons and tons of out of school kiddes result in 50,000 at one time logins etc.... LAst june was a NIGHTMARE this year will be even worse!