Buy Lindens now!

That disappeared when my dad taught me to play poker.

275 (at the beginning of the weekend Lindex buying, no less)! Any wagers whether it will punch through 274 over the weekend? I'm sure it will hit 274, but that's a pretty big road block to get through (4.4million).

Under 1,000,000 at 274. Next big hurdle is 270. Could be time to sell soon.

Your prediction is based on what? Trend Lines? Give some
Macro Economic reason why you feel the L$ is going higher?

LL adding purchasing into the client directly?

Yeh. So its 'easier' to buy Lindens. But the question remains
unanswered. What will drive citizens to buy more Linden Dollars
than are being sold?

I hope everybody keeps in the back of their mind that people
have to Buy Lindens for it to go higher. Which means there needs
to be something driving the demand to move a downward trend
higher. Did LL create a shortage of L$, so demand is exceeding
supply? Did somebody invent a new bit of content which everybody
must have? Are land prices moving higher because supply is
dropping?

Otherwise, its just wishful thinking that may lead many to buy
Linden Dollars thinking the price is going higher because of
speculation. And once the buying speculators can't get anymore
buyers, panic will set in that the price really isn't going higher,
and then you'll have a wave of selling as people try to get their
money back.

Demand is outpacing supply. It's based on carefully watching the market, day after day.

Looks like it could hit 270 by Sunday night, although 272 is more attainable.

Is anyone really concerned 0.7% fluctuations in exchange rate for any real reason or just academic curiousity. This is an honest question, not flamebait; sorry if it appears as such.

I'm interested in the short term trend of where the Lindex is going, because I sell them from time to time.

I also think that this thread marks a significant bottom for the market. When the thread began the linden was trading in the 281-284 range so the difference is more than 0.7%.

Lastly, for the last 3-4 weeks, demand has clearly outpaced supply. While I make no pretense to be able to predict where the linden will be in 3 months or 6 months, it does suggest that for the time being, perhaps LL has found a good balance for the money supply.

Oh, and one last thing, the views to replies ratio for this thread suggests to me that it's not just me and mcgeeb who are interested in it

Just hit 272 now!
So i think it will easlly hit 270 by tomorrownight

There could be an artificial elasticity at work here, forcing the market down a bit more than it really should be at the moment.

1) Experienced consumers may be panicing and buying as much Linden as they can while the price remains cheep.

2) People with Linden to sell may be waiting for the Linden to become as expensive as possible, thus witholding supply until the downward presure stalls.

When these two factors reverse, there may be a heavy movement in the other direction for a brief period, although I believe that the current signup growth may force the Linden to become more expensive in the mid-term.



Dean

While this may sound like nitpicking, demand and supply did not change a week ago, when the market finally turned around.

The means to express and satisfy the demand did change; dramatically. For all those who are willing to buy a few Lindens it became much easier all of the sudden, when the new Buy L$ functionality was added to the client. More thoughts on that here .

I wonder, what would happen (but I am not sure if I would want this experiment to happen), if LL added a similar functionality for selling L$.

Whatever the reason, this process began before the change to the ease of buying additonal lindens. And new demand is still outpacing new supply in the short term. What will happen in a week or two once we get to a certain threshold? Dunno. We'll see.

Keiki, I am not sure what "process" you mean.

The L$ was firmly above 280 with large fluctuations (some upward), when on the very same day the new functionality was introduced, trading volume soared up AND the exchange rate began to fall (value of L$ rising). As a firm believer in cause and effect, I don't see this as an accident.

But it's usually moot "discussing" market and "reason". Maybe lets leave it at that.

Aggreed.

You sound like a CNBC Analyst typing to hype a stock
so you can sell it for a higher price.

I began carefully tracking lindex sell orders a week before the new buying feature was added to the client. And it was clear before then that the linden had reached a temporary ceiling around 282 was trending back towards the 270s, even if it hadn't moved much yet (the amount for sale about >275 and >280 were steadily getting eaten away). I wouldn't be surprised if the new buying option in the client sped up this process, but it was going to happen anyway I think. There is really no way to quantify what effect the new buying option has had.

Anyway to answer your question the process I was referring to was the linden hitting a ceiling and beginning to move in the other direction.

EDIT: Looking back at my data... I would say that it hit a ceiling before the new feature was added. Was very slowly trending the other way, but it would be hard to conclude that the new buying feature didn't really jump start the process.

I'm just making predictions based on the data I'm collecting. A few pennies per 1000 lindens isn't going to make much difference to me. I don't make that much off my store.

Keiki has been right on almost all her forcasts, she should charge people for her DATA and explaination...I bet quite a few ppl would pay for such insight.

She said it would rumble to 275 when everyone was calling for the magic 361 number alas I just checked it was 274 to sell...

*note to self don't question a gambler*

p.s. - Don't be hater just b/c she's been right and crushes a lot...heh I know quite a few who are happy they didn't sell at 285.

Keiki, I would not question for a second, that - based on your data - you would say this. Otherwise you would not have said this.

I am sure you have build a wonderful working model for trends at the LindeX based on your observations of buyers and sellers behaviour; expressed in sell orders and actual transactions. I did not want to say anything against it. It is just ... behaviour has reasons, causes (even if they might be irrational). Some of those reasons can be found in "game theory" where players behaviour is described as reactions on, assessment and anticipation of other players behavior in the context of a given set of rules. This can lead to very impressive results. Still, personally, I am more interested in the causes outside of pure game theory. But this is personal preference.

I'm interested in the reasons behind the behavior too. Mostly what we have in this forum is just speculation however. With our limited access to real financial data, we are all just reading tea leaves. Honestly, nobody knows squat. And anyone who "knows" where the linden is headed long term... well lets just say I don't tend to believe them. Making short term predictions is one thing, but the nature of non-linear systems like economies makes them very resistent to accurate predictions over the medium to long term. Just like the weather, non-linear systems have a way of doing unexpected things.

And I have no sophisticated model, just a spreadsheet with data in it. I look for patterns and trends, that's it. Besides, this thread really isn't about "why is this happening". It's just about simple short term predictions. That's all.



EDIT: By the looks of things, we will hit 271 by tonight, but I'm not sure we can break through to the 260s with the amount of lindens in the sell column currently. We'll see what happens this week. My instinct tells me a lot of new sell orders will be placed this week and that there may be a lot of resistance for the linden to get beyond 270, but the numbers suggest that we may get to the mid 260s by this time next weekend.

I think its still not a good time to sell now, knowing that the Linden dollar is still strengthening.

At this rate, I am rather interested to see how high the value can go up to now? who knows it can even pass the 250L mark as in last september?

I really doubt it's going to move up that much. It's going to hit some sort of threshold and the trend will stop and probably head the other way. Think sine waves. That's what markets like this tend to make.

I definitely agree there is more resistance (sell orders) to deal with, than there was when the value was 280. When the Lindex was at 280+ (before new feature), the path of least resistance was for the value to fall into the 270s. 250s will not happen in the short term, unless some amazing buying happens. My guess in the short-term, is that the Lindex will bounce around 270, maybe upper 260s. I just don't know if I should sell all my Lindens or just enough to pay my tier. Could 250s Long-term happen? Is it just me, or was there a lot of people on Second life today?

Monday spike...Keiki brought this up previously on the ebb and flow of weekly patterns and lo and behold today +4...when Sunday (even late Sunday) would be low pt., yep yep.

I wondering with the US holiday if the volume will be higher than a normal Monday. So far it's pretty slow. It's going to bounce around a lot in the mid 70s this week.