Market Data

Point is, if nobody had moved up their L$ as they did now we would've been below 290 and they would've sold their L$ at a better rate than they will sell now. Last 14 days 10M L$ of the available volume has gone so if you'd take the full picture of 2 weeks ago, remove the top 10M L$ you'd have a good guess of what the going rate could've been today.

Sure there are now a few mountains to climb like the pile at 295 but if buyers remain as eager as today you'll suddenly see a major correction when those big piles have gone. As we're weekend next few days should be interesting as we see biggest volume during weekends.

hush

Further evidence that it's the *price war* between the sellers that's killing the L$ and not the stipend. Seems that they're only shooting themselves in the foot.

Not really. Can anyone prove that if the price had not come down, the Lindex would have filled so many orders in the last 3 weeks? I really doubt anyone can. Until people started selling for 300 linden per dollar, the total amount of sell orders was growing, not shrinking. What jump started this period of shrinking sell orders was lower prices. Without the recent "price war" there would still be 30 million lindens waiting to be bought.

Possibly, but there also isn't any proof that it was low prices either, it could also mean less L$ being dumped on the seller's end. But that's beside the point since the price is set by the sellers. AND, even if there were still 30mil on the market, then that would mean that the buying rate and selling rate were roughly equal. Meaning that all those sellers would be making that much more $US for just a small amount of patience. Their loss.

Also, don't forget that certain someones were dumping large amounts of L$ on the market to apparently push the L$ down. (Look at the past rate data.. someone's been shooting for L$300/$1 for a long time and became more active recently.) The sellers have only their peers to blame.

Just looking at the lindex now and I'm wondering how long it is before drastic changes happen. If the 295 moutain is passed, there is nothing much left before things could tumble into the 280s and 270s. If sellers show patience this weekend watching their price get better, they could earn much more with their sell orders by next week.

Alright, you convinced me. I'm looking at where the market is today vs. a week ago and its very dramatic. Here is my data, I hope Kaz updates his soon:

Sell     
Orders    04/03    04/08    04/16
-------   -----    -----    -----
280-289    9.0M     8.3M     2.8M
290+       8.6M     9.6M     7.5M
-------   -----    -----    -----
280+      17.6M    17.9M    10.3M

As you can see the amount of Lindens at or above 290 has been pretty consistent for the last couple of weeks. The market looks balanced, but it isn't. It appears that a lot of money that was sitting in the 280-289 range was moved up and sold in the last week. That source of money is running pretty thin. Another week like this and we could be looking at a Linden/$ rate around 290-292 quite easily.

I'm wondering how much money is waiting on the sidelines, however. Are there people who are not bothering to try to sell their lindens and hoping for a turnaround? It will be interesting to see what happens if the Linden passes that 290 mark again. Will we suddenly have a flood of new sell orders pushing the price back up? If not, could "panic buying" drive the price even further?

Well if everyone did follow the crowd and sold there Lindens due to the panic it will be a while before they sell again. I'm waiting until it falls into the 280s which it will. Once the 3 million at 295 is sold, there's only one direction for it to go and not much in the 280s either.

I still think you are being optimistic on that one McGeeb. If the market drops into the 280s, things will change once again. I'm guessing there is a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to be sold at better prices. But definitely something interesting is going on.

I agree. I just like to bring a little optimism unlike some other's gloom and doom posts.

I am more optimistic: 260.
Money on the sidelines not too important. Sidelines will melt too.
My only fear is, LL to start to think: "ok L$ started to gain value we can print much more money now". What a big mistake.

march-08: 15:00 266.76598 279
march-09: 16:29 271.71853 279
march-10: 13:22 275.78312 280
276.78812 280
277.79312 280
march-13: 14.05 279.75892 280
march-14: 17:49 282.86899 282
march-15: 17:28 278.08106 281
march-16: 16:42 282.56826 282
march-17: 15:21 282.34515 281
297.46583 281
march-19: 15:09 300.64421 282
march-20: 14:41 320.49378 286
march-21: 06:09 312.67334 287
march-22: 08:05 307.15728 285
march-23: 08:28 349.95039 300
347.25483 298
310.37563 296
283.54526 294
march-27: 16:57 262.38115 292
march-28: 12:03 288.60747 294
march-29: 12:39 298.40571 296
march-30: 12:36 288.20208 301
march-31: 12:36 264.16043 296
april-01: 12:03 226.98162 292
april-03: 08:05 223.08175 296
april-04: 07:46 217.54572 295
april-05: 07:58 224.66766 294
april-06: 08:04 225.62792 295
april-07: 08:20 239.09593 297
april-09: 11:26 206.41825 295
april-10: 09:46 203.51196 297
april-11: 08:01 193.81022 298
april-12: 08:01 210.81485 301
april-13: 08:01 187.26235 299
april-14: 08:55 189.34821 300
april-15: 08:55 195.71723 300
april-16: 15:15 200.45363 300
april-17: 07:50 163.45442 298
--------------------------------------------------------

http://www.picfury.com/r/data-1.html

Next 2 months average L$/usd rate guess: 261L$/usd

is your data off by a decimal point?

sorry: 163.45442 * 10^5 = 16345442

Just relax. There is not much danger of that. The L$ stayed well above 295 this weekend.

If wishes were horses ...

As much as I would like to see an L$ that is stable and maybe even growing in value, I don't think this will happen without some changes to basic economic parameters. The most important of these are influx of fresh money (in relation to number of residents), sufficiently attractive money sinks and influx of fresh land, especially mainland (in relation to number of residents). As long as Linden Lab does not change any of these, I very much doubt that the L$ will recover to the levels of last Autumn.

I am not saying this wont happen. But the downward trend of the last 6 months is more than just psychology. And it will take more than a few optimistic posts to turn it around.

Which has happened this very hour.

So let's see what reducing the influx of fresh money by some 10% will do to the exchange rate!

Sell     
Orders    04/03    04/08    04/16    04/20    04/22
-------   -----    -----    -----    -----    -----
280-289    9.0M     8.3M     2.8M     2.9M     2.6M
290+       8.6M     9.6M     7.5M    13.0M    10.3M
-------   -----    -----    -----    -----    -----
280+      17.6M    17.9M    10.3M    15.9M    12.9M

Hmm... not looking like we are heading for a stronger Linden. It's a week later and there are 13.2M Linden for sale above 280. (The 4/22 numbers are for the lowest point I recorded yesterday).

I would never try to crystal ball a market, Keiki. If I could, I would be rich. But maybe what the announcement did was just stabilize the L$ at 300L$/USD and stop the fall. It is all psychology anyway. It will be a while until a reduction of the money influx by 10% (in two steps) will have any effect on the fundamentals ...

I am not sure if the analysis of "L$ for sale at or above ..." says much about future exchange rates anyway. Any offer below 295 is pure speculation currently. And would those who speculate on a L$ at these prices really put all their L$ for sale now?

It could be low priority sales or even abandon accounts with no time limit on GUC orders its very possible alot of L has been left on the market by abandon accounts. Placing a time limit on GUC orders could actually increase the effectiveness of abandon accounts as a money sink and improve the appearance of the market. On the second point they might but if they are smart they would hold the L's off the market completely to encourage a rapid rise when the L breaks through major resistance(and the psychological benefit of less for sale) then a controlled release when the L reaches the price point they want.

I wouldn't expect that the elimination of dwell will have much impact on the market for months honestly. The Linden has been trading quite firmly between 295-300 for almost a month now. I think it had already "stabilized." Whether it will stay in this range beyond the next couple of weeks, *shrugs* dunno, but I'm certainly less optimistic of the Linden gaining much value in the short term than I was a week ago.

Stock Factor=Stock X m / n



L$ Rate Factor=L$/USD + kq

m,n,k,q are based on seller count, buyer count, total active population, L$ exchange amount etc...

http://putfile.com/pic.php?pic=5/12613020649.jpg&s=f5

Kazanture,

Thanks for the bump, I have never seen this thread before.

A couple of interesting observations from last night. At about 11:30 PM there were 5 sell orders totalling about 200K Lindens at 298 to 1. Next there were 6 sell orders totalling 835K Lindens at 298 to 1. One of the elite few just dropped over 530K lindens in a single order at 298 to 1. By 6:00 AM today the total number of orders at 298 to 1 was again 5 for a total of only 55K Lindens. The person who moved over 500K Lindens very early this morning gave up $25 USD by not waiting 8 hours. Also, when the number of orders hit 5 at 298 to 1, another 300K Lindens were offered at 298 to 1. Both of those large sell orders have been completely executed and probably still would have been executed today at 297 to1 or even 296 to 1.

There was another 500K Linden sell order posted today about 10:00 AM at 298 to 1 and I haven't been able to watch the market as close now as I was last night.

http://putfile.com/pic.php?pic=5/12704445656.jpg&s=f5

Thank you, why are all of your decissions are damaging SL's economy?

/3/d3/105351/1.html
/130/92/105352/1.html

4/17/06 19336573 300
4/18/06 19131243 301
4/19/06 19538791 299
4/20/06 17133311 298
4/21/06 18570479 299
4/22/06 17870479 300
4/23/06 18419653 305
4/24/06 19437463 302
4/25/06 20838865 301

4/29/06 19141000 300
4/30/06 18440213 299

5/3/06 18420206 300

5/5/06 17479799 299
5/6/06 17050475 299
5/7/06 16050475 298
<--------Robin Linden's announcement.
5/8/06 19911907 305
5/9/06 24035029 305
Date ---- L$ stock at lindex ---- L$/USD rate

8 million market stock increase(almost 50% of the whole lindex stock) in 24 hours.
This is a record. Thank you for the "stablize lindex" TOS change announcement...