Market Data

time/ L$ stock over 250 per usd on lindex / L$ rate
march-08: 15:00 26676598 279
march-09: 16:29 27171853 279
march-10: 13:22 27578312 280
march-13: 14.05 27975892 280
march-14: 17:49 28286899 282
march-15: 17:28 27808106 281
march-16: 16:42 28256826 282
march-17: 15:21 28234515 281
march-19: 15:09 30064421 282
march-20: 14:41 32049378 286
march-21: 06:09 31267334 287
march-22: 08:05 30715728 285
march-23: 08:28 34995039 300
march-27: 16:57 26238115 292
march-28: 12:03 28860747 294
march-29: 12:39 29840571 296
march-30: 12:36 28820208 301
march-31: 12:36 26416043 296
april-01: 12:03 22698162 292
april-03: 08:05 22308175 296
april-04: 07:46 21754572 295

Amount of Lindens still going lower. Looking much better

i have some few L$ waiting for "better day" and i bet i'm not the only one.
The dead cat is bouncing again, and it will bounce again, and again, and again, ...

The magic bounce margin is 3%, or around 10$L at this time. The people who are playing short term speculation are looking at that as the breakeven point for the trading fee at Lindex and SLExchange.

So anything less than a 3% change over a week can really be consider stable.

That said, however, the downward trend in the last few months is disturbing, and with only one week of data it's not enough to say if the $L is recovering or not. look at the one week recovery in mid-feb, that turned out to be a fake.

With the transaction kept secret, noboy can tell if it's a wide scale sells by small players or a few large dumps by a few large players that is causing the trend. In RL one can at least get inof on which countey is buying or selling, in SL it's all hidden.

For the period of that week, yes. However, trends aren't made in a week.


Nothing in the underlying economy or enviroment has changed, therefore it's reasonable to assume that no (significant, long term) recovery is taking place.



One can get a reasonable guess by examining the market data and noting the number of sellers at a given level against value of $L being sold at that level. However, I submit that the information is moot - because the same pressures apply equally to sellers large and small.

I think we are at agreement on most points.

Unless the trend was caused artifically by the big players to gain monopoly or majority holding of $L.

It only take a small dump to cause panic in a bunch of nervous $L holders.

For example:
A big player want to increase his holding in $L. He first check to see the current highest sell order, and lowest buy order, let say they are 300 and 330. So he know that if he put in a buy order of 315, nothing would happen. He then immediately release a sizable amount of $L at exactly 315, and a huge buy order somewhere between 300 to 315. He ended up buying his own $L and cost him ~ a dollar or 2 to do so.

Now that affect the chart showing the last trade at 315, if the small and mid players take the bait, they'd adjust their sell order closer to 315, in a couple transaction he had manupulated the market. The exact value would need to be adjust to cover the spread and such however it's so easily gamed cause even if they restrict the same AV buying from itself. Having an alternate cost nothing.

This would have been fraud in RL, but I don't think SLechange or Lindex are enforcing this.

I think one of the issues is that there are many sellers that post in 1 million dollar amounts to cash out, pay their tier, etc. Is there ever anyone that buys in 1 million dollar chunks? Nope. From what I see the whole process is big sell orders and a bunch of little buy orders. Panic selling can quickly add up because they come in much bigger chunks than all of the little buy orders.
There is never any panic buying or fear that it will be too expensive to buy Lindens soon.
So whenever someone posts a large amount over 1 million Lindens, everyone else will not want to wait for days on end and will post 1 Linden per dollar under that to sell. Could this be causing the whole issue. Anything over 1 million basically creates an effective road block. Which make me wonder why the person selling at these amounts does this knowing it is likely not to be sold unless it is done in smaller increments.
The amount of Lindens above 250L has decreased dramatically, but the price stays the same.
So one of my suggestions is for Lindens Labs to start doing something. One would be to create some sort of limit per day on how many Lindens one can sell. Certainly under 1 million should be ok which is several thousand dollars. A limit would also stop someone from trying to manipulate the market and posting several points lower than the best buying rate for their own financial gain.
It would also be nice if Lindens Labs would tell us if the amount of money sinks equals the amount of Lindens given out on average per person. That way it can be reassuring to know that there isn't a money glut.

How many times do I have to repeat myself!

If there is over 7million linden bought in a day (see current market data) then people can saftely post L$ in a price bracket and assume it will sell by days end at the latest, so long as they post before that price bracket hits 7 million. Things would be going smoothly if people would wait to post at L$1 more per $1 untill the current price bracket hits 7 million.

Exactly. More patience would work wonders for the Lindex exchange. I'm wondering how well it will go tonight. There is only a few Lindens at 294, but at 293 over 2 million. It will be interesting to see how long it takes to pass that.

march-08: 15:00 26676598 279
march-09: 16:29 27171853 279
march-10: 13:22 27578312 280
march-13: 14.05 27975892 280
march-14: 17:49 28286899 282
march-15: 17:28 27808106 281
march-16: 16:42 28256826 282
march-17: 15:21 28234515 281
march-19: 15:09 30064421 282
march-20: 14:41 32049378 286
march-21: 06:09 31267334 287
march-22: 08:05 30715728 285
march-23: 08:28 34995039 300
march-27: 16:57 26238115 292
march-28: 12:03 28860747 294
march-29: 12:39 29840571 296
march-30: 12:36 28820208 301
march-31: 12:36 26416043 296
april-01: 12:03 22698162 292
april-03: 08:05 22308175 296
april-04: 07:46 21754572 295
april-05: 07:58 22466766 294

-------------------------------------------------
I know noone will listen to me but with this daily buy/sell volume, if noone puts new L$ for sale for 3-4 days, the rate will be 250/usd. Can you wait(or use other L$ sell services like ige) for 3-4 days?

I think not - because market behavior suggests that sellers simply place their sell order at a rate greater than or equal the current highest rate. (The 'stair step' pattern seen on the 'trades in last 24 hours' chart leads me to this conclusion.)

Furthermore, on the Lindex, the buyer has no control over his buy order - the system simply matches the buyer to the best available rate.




A theory often punted about - but one with an utter lack of evidence in either direction. Who benefits and how?

Just a theory:

Since there is no banking system in SL, $L is currently generated through initial allowance, stipends and Dwell payment. And ways to remove/ destroy currency is through Ads. In world trade and Lindex just shuffle the $Ls around, changes hands and change the preceived value verses USD.

So with the heated discussion of people asking LL to remove/ reduce stipend and dwell payment. A significant amont of $L would not be generated each week. Stipend alone generate at least 900K $L per week assuming all resident were basic with only 50L stipend, and that's really conservative. I don't know how much dwell pays in total, but taking into acccount that most money chair pays 4$L/ 10 minutes that 4032$L per chair per week Dwell must be paying enough to cover that, taking another stab I would say dwell generate another 1 million per week.

I don't want to get into the discussion if they are bringing the value of $L down, that's another honet's nest. But the removal/ or reduction of $L generation would reduce the supply of $L in the market.

Assuming demand remain the same, i.e. the interest of players to remain in SL did not fall, this would force an increase of the $L value (left shift of the supply curve)

Who stand to benefit? The people holding the most $Ls. They essentially become the OPEC of SL or the LPEC, a group of people controlling the majority supply of $Ls in SL. They can set whatever price they want and people would have to take it. And since most of them would likely to be land barons so the majority of the $L people pay USD for would end up back into their pocket and be resold again. And in a way better than holding land since holding large sum of $L doesn't cost additional tier fee like land does.

Once again, this is a theory, it is possible and considering the continous negative press of how $L is doomed and proposal of launch of another currency by a few users but yet they did not leave SL. A "doomed platform" where they stand to lose the most money if it fails, but yet they continue to release negative rumors, why? The scenario I proposed is not beyond imagination.

Another scenario, is that if the goal was to encourage people to switch to an alternative currency, would be to de-stablize $L. All the person would need to so would be to dump sizable chunks of $L at lower value and let the jumpy masses do the rest.

All of the practice mentioned above would be highly illegal in RL, market manupulation, but in SL anything goes it seems.

Like your first theory - this one doesn't hold water. A simple observation of the volume, etc.. on the market shows this likely not what is happening. (Mostly because sizeable chunks significantly fail to appear.) To destablize the market, you'd have to put in between 3 and 5 million $L each and every day - for days on end. That's a loss of cosmic proportions. (And I doubt even Anshe Chung has that kind of cash to burn, either in $L or U$D.)

And you are not going to make back that kind of money from an alternate currency.



However, there's no evidence that any of the above is happening.

time/ L$ stock over 250 per usd on lindex / L$ rate
march-08: 15:00 26676598 279
march-09: 16:29 27171853 279
march-10: 13:22 27578312 280
march-13: 14.05 27975892 280
march-14: 17:49 28286899 282
march-15: 17:28 27808106 281
march-16: 16:42 28256826 282
march-17: 15:21 28234515 281
march-19: 15:09 30064421 282
march-20: 14:41 32049378 286
march-21: 06:09 31267334 287
march-22: 08:05 30715728 285
march-23: 08:28 34995039 300
march-27: 16:57 26238115 292
march-28: 12:03 28860747 294
march-29: 12:39 29840571 296
march-30: 12:36 28820208 301
march-31: 12:36 26416043 296
april-01: 12:03 22698162 292
april-03: 08:05 22308175 296
april-04: 07:46 21754572 295
april-05: 07:58 22466766 294
april-06: 08:04 22562792 295
------------------------------------------
Good for a thursday. i am expecting that the L$/usd value will be 290/usd by sunday.

It almost looks like the lindex is balanced even. I also think 290 is possible as long as someone doesn't post a several million Linden dollar amount in one instance creating one of those nasty road blocks. Also if sellers would look and see that they do not need to sell at 300L. It sells just as fast at 1 under.

Hello everyone:

I am farely new to Sl and am tryin to save to buy a island so i am careful when to try and sell Lins first to get best value for them and second sell them in a farly reasonable amount of time.

I know that some people need to convert Lins quickly to cover Land teir or other LL charges and others to support thier real life, but I was thinking if the Lindens really want to equilize the market on the sell page could they not offer a like a best sell piont option ? This would hold the persons linds in account say for 6 hours. This Buffer would allow those who need instant conversion the oppertunity and others like myself to sell at a better rate. Personally since i do not require USD immediately I am currantly post my linds for sale at 287. I feel if there was this buffer in place it would allow the rate of the lind to increase by selling off some of the standing orders and the people taking this delayed action would moast likey have thier linds sold the same day anyways.

Just a thought Karri

march-08: 15:00 26676598 279
march-09: 16:29 27171853 279
march-10: 13:22 27578312 280
march-13: 14.05 27975892 280
march-14: 17:49 28286899 282
march-15: 17:28 27808106 281
march-16: 16:42 28256826 282
march-17: 15:21 28234515 281
march-19: 15:09 30064421 282
march-20: 14:41 32049378 286
march-21: 06:09 31267334 287
march-22: 08:05 30715728 285
march-23: 08:28 34995039 300
march-27: 16:57 26238115 292
march-28: 12:03 28860747 294
march-29: 12:39 29840571 296
march-30: 12:36 28820208 301
march-31: 12:36 26416043 296
april-01: 12:03 22698162 292
april-03: 08:05 22308175 296
april-04: 07:46 21754572 295
april-05: 07:58 22466766 294 6908780
april-06: 08:04 22562792 295 7188573
april-07: 08:20 23909593 297 8791101
april-09: 11:26 20641825 295 8305057
april-10: 09:46 20351196 297 8482572

time/ L$ stock over 250 per usd on lindex / L$ rate / L$stock over 290/usd on lindex
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You can sell at better rates. You will cry because of your cheap sells soon.

Only 20,000,000 plus. Yup, this is why I'm waiting

march-08: 15:00 26676598 279
march-09: 16:29 27171853 279
march-10: 13:22 27578312 280
march-13: 14.05 27975892 280
march-14: 17:49 28286899 282
march-15: 17:28 27808106 281
march-16: 16:42 28256826 282
march-17: 15:21 28234515 281
march-19: 15:09 30064421 282
march-20: 14:41 32049378 286
march-21: 06:09 31267334 287
march-22: 08:05 30715728 285
march-23: 08:28 34995039 300
march-27: 16:57 26238115 292
march-28: 12:03 28860747 294
march-29: 12:39 29840571 296
march-30: 12:36 28820208 301
march-31: 12:36 26416043 296
april-01: 12:03 22698162 292
april-03: 08:05 22308175 296
april-04: 07:46 21754572 295
april-05: 07:58 22466766 294 6908780
april-06: 08:04 22562792 295 7188573
april-07: 08:20 23909593 297 8791101
april-09: 11:26 20641825 295 8305057
april-10: 09:46 20351196 297 8482572
april-11: 08:01 19381022 298 8599983

time/ L$ stock over 250 per usd on lindex / L$ rate / L$stock over 290/usd on lindex
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You can sell at better rates. You will cry because of your cheap sells soon.

I think you are ignoring an important part of your own stats. The amount of lindens for sale over 290 seems much more relavent the amount for sale over 250. The amount for sale over 290 has been growing for a while. It's going to take a very significant growth in demand to get the linden back down to 290 anytime soon.

march-08: 15:00 26676598 279
march-09: 16:29 27171853 279
march-10: 13:22 27578312 280
march-13: 14.05 27975892 280
march-14: 17:49 28286899 282
march-15: 17:28 27808106 281
march-16: 16:42 28256826 282
march-17: 15:21 28234515 281
march-19: 15:09 30064421 282
march-20: 14:41 32049378 286
march-21: 06:09 31267334 287
march-22: 08:05 30715728 285
march-23: 08:28 34995039 300
march-27: 16:57 26238115 292
march-28: 12:03 28860747 294
march-29: 12:39 29840571 296
march-30: 12:36 28820208 301
march-31: 12:36 26416043 296
april-01: 12:03 22698162 292
april-03: 08:05 22308175 296
april-04: 07:46 21754572 295
april-05: 07:58 22466766 294
april-06: 08:04 22562792 295
april-07: 08:20 23909593 297
april-09: 11:26 20641825 295
april-10: 09:46 20351196 297
april-11: 08:01 19381022 298
april-12: 08:01 21081485 301
april-13: 08:01 18726235 299
april-14: 08:55 18934821 300

As the total volume is still decreasing the current going rate is totally artificial. It is sustained by people moving from below 290 to above 290 due to impatience. If they had not moved the rate would've dropped below 290 already and they would've sold their L$ too with only a few days difference. Unless off course buyers would be significantly less interested in rates below 290 (highly unlikely).

As it is it shows that giving out the 50 lindens to not paying accounts hurts the economie.
Why?
The ammount of linden grows but not the demand (at least not that fast)

People adjust prices up until they get enough lindens to pay there plots and stuff.

Soon the 50 lindens will be good enough to buy a nacked cube prim, only thing they do is inflate the volume of lindens.

Inflation was never a good hting, and as long servers and plots have to be paid in dollars and the linden goes up prices will to do.

And i will do hell to use lindens for renting out land, Linden labs turns the linden into game money, not cash, as long its not stable to the dollar its pretty useless.

Buyers certainly got more interested when the price got over 290.


See that huge drop in the total amount for sale above 250? from 34 million to 22 million? That was sparked when the someone started dumping large amounts at 300/$.

Lindens got cheaper and people bought more. That's what happened. It was quite dramatic if you were watching it closely.

Nobody wants to wait anymore for there Ls to sell. Right now 295 has a huge mountain to climb and even if the trading went down/up to 296 today, thats will it will stay for a while.