L$ 299.86 / Us$ 1.00

Well that's funny, because you were on the record for a pause at 330 followed by more decline. That's not what happened. There was a pause at 330, but then the L$ went up to 300. It'll be comical to hear you try to talk yourself out of that one.

Furthermore, this decline is pretty clearly a result of yesterday's announcement and town hall meeting. Had that announcement not come out, I'd bet that the L$ would have stayed right around 300 for at least several more weeks. We'll never know, though. Anyway, your constant blathering about the L$ "tanking" began long before that announcement. So, while the direction that the L$ is going may match the direction in your "prediction", you cannot claim to have been correct because the reason it is happening has nothing to do with what you said. Actually, you've never really said anything beyond some basic economic theory...when people stop buying the L$ will decline. No fooling, genius. Your only attempt to tie that theory to SL with actual reasons behind your prediction was some BS about a SL gold standard (are you serious?! LOL!).

An analogy to what you do would be a doctor who tells a patient that the patient will die in three days from a heart attack. The patient doesn't die in three days from a heart attack but the next week is struck and killed by a car. The doctor says, "Well he's dead so I was right."

There you go, right from RBD so it must be true.

Normal means "the way things usually are", so with the L$ value heading back to over L$300 : $1, the unusual drop in L$ value where it hit 295 is over, and we revert to the way things are meant to be.

Decline to the seller is positive for the buyer. We need more buyers, as you've advocated because there are too many people selling, so this may encourage more people to buy L$ and spend it.

Everyone wins. I can't see why you are against it, except for the fact it hurts you to be shown as wrong yet again.

Lewis

Again, the average exchange rate fell below L$ 300 / US$ 1.

I remember this thread. I told RBD that what we saw a few weeks ago (after announcement) was only a short-term fall. Now we are back to where we were before.

he must be entering the buy phase of his cycle soon again

Ohh you trickster, I know you are buying L$... lol

Hey, don't mind me, buy more.. The more folks buy, the harder the crash... So load up on that funny money that is growing at the rate of L$50,000,000/million new dollars a month printed from thin air....

This month the growth will be more like L$40,000,000.

I bought 3 million $L over the weekend

Hahahahah.... Keep on buying, because somebody has to hold up this inflated valuation price while others sell out.

And yet the daily average keeps hovering around L$300...

shit, that dead cat must be sucking on helium o,O;

I wasn't serious about that either.

RDB acts like a politician rather than anything else on this issue.

He wants us to believe the L$ is way over-valued and going to crash against the US$. He's said it when the L$ was at 300, 330, 300, 310, 300...

Now it's eminently possible that over the next months and years things will change and the value will fall. It's equally possible that it will remain at around 300, and that it will strengthen again. Why? Well we know LL tinker with the economy and it's just about ONLY RDB that says the slide to 330 was "inevitable" just about every other person that comments ties it in to the announced change to the economy, the 310 and back slide seems to tie to the actual announcement of the first round of sales by LL on LindeX.

So, RDB is convinced it's going to crash. He's quite happy to ignore the evidence that it's come back to 300 after both those slides. Ergo, politician rather than actual observer, he's got an agenda and will ignore things that don't fit it, or to deride and psuedo-demonise those who disagree with him.

No economics seems to be an incredibly political topic anyway, it's not really an analytical subject, it's more guess work than actual understanding.

His agenda is, apparently, the L$ will crash. So why? Any thoughts or guesses? Or does he actually, deep down, believe the current value is roughly where it will remain, but like the variation being a bit wider so he can buy at 330 (whilst telling us to sell) actually believing it will come back to 300 so he can sell it back for a nice profit?

I don't understand why he is in such disbelief that people buy Lindens.

Because I've seen nearly 3/years of Second Life economics. And it has been a text book case of Mudflation... There are brief moments the L$ will rally, but they are short lived and the decline begins again.. I recall when the L$ was worth $3.80, then rallied to $4.20 and hovered there for a few months. Only to once again begin its decline. Now we are around $3.30 for L$1000 dollars. Today is nothing different. Maybe after a few years, you'll see the light.

Please explain how a guy who joined on 1/16/06 sees even 1 year of Second Life economics?

Ladies, Gentlemen... here we see just what RBD likes to ignore...

Compared to those days he constantly dredges up to show us how good it was, the economic conditions and variables are now vastly different... yet poor RBD still thinks they're exactly the same.


Poor RBD... stuck in nostalgia for the "good old days" back when we had Dwell, DI, Ratings Bonuses, not enough land, only a few thousand residents, L$1K for every basic reference, L$2.5K for every Premium reference, Prim Tax...

Yeah... nothing's different today, is it?

Oh there is one difference. LL is pumping out L$50/million New Linden Dollars a Month. Expanding the money supply faster than in years past. So you should be happy to know your linden dollar will devalue at a much faster rate.

So long good old days, hello hyper-inflation.

yawn

Because they are probably the alt of the #1 economic mind in second life.

Pumping in L$50M a month... which is soaked up by a massively larger population than before.

You continue to ignore that half of the equation RBD... which is why you continue to look silly.


:edit: I'm feeling generous, so I'll explain it again for you... the money supply is increasing at a rate that is LOWER than the rate of population increase, as seen by the way the average L$ value per active resident is decreasing.
As this continues, the L$ will suffer from deflation... assuming, of course, that the increases will continue... but as new premiums join, the increase is again reduced as they get smaller stipends now. and new basics get nothing. The only current place any extra increase can come from is LL selling L$, and that's just a small drop in the ocean now.

In other words, population will continue to outstrip money supply... which is the opposite of inflation.

I walk between the rain drops.

A larger population made up of additonal alts of existing players and accounts of former players that never get cancelled. You continue to look foolish in your ignorance of the obvious.

Statements like that one prove you don't run a business in SL (at least not a popular one) and probaby spend very little time hanging out in world if you really think this is the case. There are new people in my shop daily and I am but one of hundreds of businesses. Unless they enjoy wearing bags on their heads and having to sit through a 10 minute lesson on how to open said bags and remove the contents I would say they are not alts.

Take a look at the volume on the Lindex, it has gone up along with the max amount of people logged on during the SL evening. There are new accounts and they are spending. I own a store and I know by looking at their profiles to see what type of customers I'm getting.

Anybody who spends anytime at all inworld will tell you it is now full of new people, many of whom are from Europe without access to LL acceptable credit cards and only joined after the doors were opened to people without credit cards.