L$ 299.86 / Us$ 1.00

For the first time since May 7th, 2006 (L$ 298.45 / US$ 1.00) the average exchange rate has dropped below L$ 300 / US$ 1.00 (L$ 299.86 / US$ 1.00) on July 15th, 2006.

I think this rate is about stable - where it should be. This is (roughly) where it was a few months ago, just before Robin Linden's announcement that Linden Lab wanted to sell L$ sent the market spiraling out of control.

I see more strength next weekend, unless 297 gets dumped with 5 million for the third week in a row.

Seems pretty good considering how much SL has grown in the last year, so long as it stays under 300. I didn't read that announcement so I thought the climb was natural and the decrease was due to the removal of traffic bonuses and free stipends...

Enjoy it while it lasts... You still have a huge number of sellers and only a dusting of Buyers... There is nothing to stop a slide. This is 1929 just waiting to happen...

Well, most consumers/buyers tend to just purchase at the market rate (i.e. the money already setup for sale at a particular price. The buyers you are referring to are the speculators who have set a price at which they are willing to pay to purchase L$, not regular consumers.

LOL. Just to let everyone know he's been saying that for over a month straight now.

yea...if you hadnt quoted him i wouldnt even have noticed his post.
For some reason his posts turn me in ignore-mode

Sorry, the hypesters control the floor and refuse to allow common sense to be heard.
But that is okay, pat yourself on the back, because you'll have some serious explaining to do real soon as the L$ begins to tank.

Sorry, I'm not leaving messages everydays telling all the buyer's they better hurry and before its too late or telling all the seller's to sell before its too late. The fact remains that the Linden is in a good position right now and saying that it will tank soon is backed by no facts. I bet we'll see the L fall during the week and strengthen next weekend like normal. If we don't see another 5 million dumped at 297 again for the third week in a row, I really think the L could strenthen more than this weekend. No promises or hype here though. Just being honest because no one does really know. To come in here and say it will tank soon after you've said it the past three weeks is baseless and with no credibility anymore.

And when will that be, oh great one?! You wave your hands and spew your FUD but you don't give hard numbers. If you're such the economic "artist" that you imply, then paint us a solid picture.

It's quite obvious that you're just making open-ended predictions. ...as soon as the L$ begins to tank. When will that be? Stop making such ambiguous statements and give timeframes.

While you're at it, maybe you could give us your definitions of things like tank, fall, and down. It would really help us ignorant fools who read posts like yours from 6 July (11 days ago)...

I just can't see that fall back down you were referring to. Surely, had a fall begun then we should see evidence of it...I don't see that evidence. Of course, since the great RBD is never wrong, I must come to the conclusion that I don't know the true definition of the word fall. Let me try to redeem myself from this shame. Does fall mean remain level? Oh RBD, when will you save me from wallowing in the depths of my ignorance!

I am simply tired of seeing Reservebank Division rant and rave constantly that "the L$ is falling," "SL is doomed," "Were all gona die a horrible economic death," and "LL is goping to go belly up." Don't you have anything else better to do than to sit on the forums all day long and spout conspiracy, and "THE SKY IS FALLING" propaganda? I don't think I have seen a positive economic post by you since.... well... ever. Just shut up, and stop trying to make people think that a stablizing market is still unstable and spiraling down the drain when its not. You must not work for Enron. They did the same thing you are doing, but in the opposite direction.
I will say now that your posts mean absolutely nothing to me RBD, and you really need to get a life.

Buy more Lindens Dollars... Load up on them..... The economic data from mcgeeb and his Alts can't be wrong. The L$ is going higher and higher because according to mcgeeb, there is this line of buyers willing to pour in tens of thousands of dollars into the Linden Dollar to keep it's valuation prop'd up. So don't worry, L$ is a safe haven.

Muahahahahaha.... There is a sucker born every minute.

And there you go, avoiding the question again, RBD.

You say the L$ is going to fall. Okay, when?

Eleven days ago you claimed the L$ was beginning to fall. Um, can you point out where that happened?

Let me pull a number out of a hat. Silly Freyr, I cannot predict the exact day and time of this decline. What I'm pointing out to you are the fundamental reason of why the L$ will decline.

I do apologize, the L$ might not have started to fall 11 days ago, but it sure hasn't risen either. Which would signal to any smart person, that the number of buyers are beginning to be dwarfed by the number of L$ sellers, causing the price to stagnate and/or decline. Right now the equation might be 50/50. As time goes on, the number US$ required to hold up the L$ will be in short supply. The net result is a decline in the L$.

You can't predict much of anything, RBD. For instance, on 22 June, with the L$ at 326, you advocated, "Selling now, buying back later...". Tell me, how would selling at 326:1 and buying back at 300:1 help me?

On 23 June, with the L$ at 327, mcgeeb commented that she predicted a strengthening to 300. You scoffed, said the L$ was merely pausing around 330 and would soon continue to decline to 350-400.


All that you are doing is pulling something out of an Econ 101 textbook and trying to make yourself sound like an economist. You constantly bash the L$ and spread FUD. What you post basically amounts to saying the L$ will decline because there will be little buying interest and more selling interest. Okay...but what have you actually said?! Absolutely nothing, because all you're doing is explaining why the price of anything--the L$, oil, my Vandelay Industries stock--moves up or down. You have yet to say why the L$ will decline while backing up your statements with substance. Okay, so you believe buying will decline. But why? Why will buying decline? You don't explain that beyond some hand-wavy statement about people putting less US$ into SL. That's still not saying anything because there still is no real "why".

Actually, I'm afraid to say that I expect the value of the L$ to be falling very soon now too, but not for the reasons that RBD gives. I am expecting to see the market react to Phillip's latest announcement the way it did when LL announced they were changing the TOS to be able to sell L$. Now they're going to do it -- and in the process tie it to sinks, effectively eliminating sinks. (If you allow your sources to increase limited by the value of your sinks, this seems to negate the purpose of sinks.)

I hope I am wrong, but I don't have a lot of faith. Should this happen, I hope we recover in less than the month it took last time. But it seems typical -- just when the value is restabilizing, LL makes an announcement that is almost guaranteed to frell it up.

*sigh*

Well with this announcement maybe we will see some frantic selling. Time to wait it out and let the reduced stipends take effect.

Well likely this announcement will cause some panic. The thing is this change really wasnt neccessary to begin with the L has been pretty stable over the past month and now pretty much another spike in panic that we are going to have to recover from. Kinda figures things change when they are starting to get good. As i stated though the change made here really wasnt neccessary and if anything does cause instablity it will be due to this as the post by Seraph stated. I hope LL just realize that they need to balance things out rather then shifting them in one direction. Things are focusing to far towards the economic side and in the long run to many policy changes in favor of focusing things to much economically will end up hurting not just the people playing socially but will also hurt the developers as well as LL.

The long term effects of to many economic changes will be damaging. I just hope that LL can balance things a bit better in the future . I like SL and dont want to see it ruined for the majority of users due to bad economic descisions. I've seen it happen to many times .

Uh-Ohh.... The Linden Dollar is tipping towards the downward slope. Will Ole McGeeb open up his wallet and whip out his amex Gold Card to prop up the L$ so he can point his finger at Ole RBD and say, "I told U so".. Hahahahahah

Like I've said 500 times, if the USDs aren't flowing into SL, then the L$ is going down the tubes.... And there is nothing in SL besides widgets to generate enough capital inflow to hold up this lofty valuation... What we need in SL is Gold. A limited supply commodity that everybody wants/needs to drive L$ demand.

You know you wanna give me the credit.... lol

Actually, no.

RBD would you please look at my profile before saying open up "his" wallet and assuming I'm a guy. Also everyone else knows for a fact that it we will see a sudden fall in the value with this announcement, plus the fact that is falls EVERY monday. Your silly comments are not needed here. Read a few posts back and see the fact that I even said after the announcement we'll see a short term fall. Yes I did tell you so.

These changes do not surprise me. If I were LL I would want to
create a policy infrastructure that would become increasingly
stabilized.
It appears to me that the SL economy has been going through
phases of evolution dictated by business growth.
From what I understand they began as a startup and moved on
to increasing rounds of VC financing. There are always major
structural changes that take place in the growth of a new
business.
Especially in the case of SL which is so multi dimensional in nature.
If I am correct they did not even have the equivolent of a treasury director as recently as six weeks ago. It sounds like
they have one now.
Now If I were this gentleman, being versed in the way things
work in the real world with the goal of helping the company to
grow I would also want to bring the SL economy onto a more
balanced and attractive real world stance.

I think the first things I would do is to factor missing elements
of real world practices into the SL economic environment.
That way I would more able to apply my real world experience
to the SL economic environment.
Like it or not LL is the equivolent of a national government in
regards to the SL economy. I really do not understand why so many people were commenting that LL work on non economic
issues instead of "social or community issues".
My perception is that SL is much more than a game and would
guess that is the perception of the owners as well.

Regarding that LL be more active in non infrastructural issues
has at least in RL always seemed to result in less personal freedoms. So I would be careful with that on

The fact that LL is very hands off in a lot of ways that does give more freedom and options which tend to spur creativity in various ways.

I dont like griefers anymore than most civil people but it may be more preferable to an overbearing "government".

In relation to jobs in SL I dont see how stipends has anything to do with them. The fact that most jobs are low skill is probably a current reflection of the technical evolution LL
is going through.

I think if we had better ways to set permissions regarding
personal property we could create broader classes of skilled
labor. I personally would love it if I could hire someone to load my jevn for me without having to give them a bunch of my property, or control for that matter.

Better more real world permissions and control over objects
could improve life in SL in many areas, including labor, copyrights, texture theft, griefing etc.
What if you could disable other people snapshot and zoom ability over your land? it would be great for when you are away.
Especially if you have alot of excellent self or other created original textures or artwork around.

Sorry if I sound too positive, but I do not see any competition in the quality of what SL provides. To me that says they have been doing a Good Job.

All these changes are from what I can see intended to affect
long term stability and RL economic viability.

end.

Hahahahah... I could have sworn that just a few days ago you were calling for a move higher.. Hahahah Now you are singing a new tune... Muahahahah... That Crow must taste good. lol

The L$ is going down the tubes and as I predicted time and time again, there isn't enough US$ holding up the L$ to sustain these lofty valuations. As a result, the L$ will begin to decline. I'm sorry mcgeeb, but you are on the record for believing the L$ will strengthen and EVERYBODY knows I'm on the record for th L$ going down the tubes. Your Dead Cat Bounce is over, we are getting back to normal with the L$'s decline.


Best buying rate: L$305 / US$1.00
Best selling rate: L$318 / US$1.00
Last trade: L$305 / US$1.00
Last close: L$304 / US$1.00
Change: +L$1 / US$1.00