Excellent Data!!!

Also, in case you are wondering how many accounts logged in: about 60,000 accounts logged in Mar-06. (approx. 47,000-Basic & 13,000-Premium) Hope this answers all your qusetions. <<answer to a question in the Answers Forum..


Thats 13,0000 accounts loged in last week, each getting 500L$ (no matter how long they were logged in). So 13,000 * 500 = 6,500,000L$ added to the economy last week. Now we need to know how much was lost to sinks last week... but I'm guessing no where near 6,500,000L$...

Now ignore Lindex (cause that is not money leaving the economy, it will come back in, maybe) thats alot of money getting added week in week out.

Although....

6.5ML$ per week 52 Weeks per year = 338ML$
13,000 premium members paying (we'll take a year payment, make it look real bad!) 72US$ per year = 936,000US$ per year

Thats

1US$ spent on account will give you = 361.11L$

OMG where have I seen that figure before (roughly)! bums, its more and more looking he's right!

You are ignoring the sinks completly! and if you had looked in classifieds in world you would see people are now sinking loads into that!

actually, a premium account doesnt need to log in to get the stipend.

As for your pointless calculation to end on the number you first thought of:

(number of members * weekly linden * weeks) / (number of members * annual dollars)
= a figure for lindens to the dollar

Wow! rocket science!


You arent an alt of 'he' by any chance,
lol

On second thoughts... I'm a happy person with low L$... I'm not getting involved!

Here's the link.

So, about 8k people bought lindens on Lindex in March, 4k of each account type, with basics buying about 1/3 of the money and premiums buying the other 2/3.

That is interesting; thank you for posting V.

That may depend on which 'he'. Many, many people understand this basic economic truth, and quite a few discuss it on the forum. I'm one of them, and a 'he', so I thought I'd chine in to say it's definately not my alt, and I use my alts for no purpose other than holding groups open.

Hi Shaun,

no didnt think it was you

Just the OP said:


Likewise, Im not actually sure who 'he' is - perhaps the OP can clarify for us.

The data from Vadusha is interesting - amazingly it reveals that the majority of linden are *bought* by premium members!

ps the OP is actually doing the exact same calculation to get the 361 figure as the original source... only multiplied by the number of active premium accounts.

You find this amazing?

How so?

IMHO, It's an obvious revelation.

I don't find that surprising. Most of the premium members own land, pay tier, and participate heavily. Many though do not operate profitable businesses. As for the basic members, many of them may choose to leave, and many are just alts of premium members and are funded by their premium counterparts.

I'm going to make a modest leap here and try to calculate the number of distinct active basic accounts.

35% of all premium accounts who logged in in March made a LindeX purchase. For the record, this is consistent with the purchase activity we saw on GOM. 8% of basic accounts that logged in in March made a purchase. Of course, some of these basics are alts. The unknown quantity is how many basics are either alts of another basic, or of a premium account.

Vasudha's post states that 70% of the currency was purchased by premiums, and 30% by basics. If we assume that *making a purchase* is independent of account status, with only the *amount* varying, then we come to an estimate of:
# distinct basic accounts = 47,000 basics logged in * 8% making purchases / 35% of logged in users purchasing = ~10,800 distinct, active basic accounts

This would put the total active SL population at around 25,000. Given a daily peak usage of around 5,000 users, we're looking at a peak concurrency of around 20%. This is on the high side with respect to other games, but is consistent with industry estimates.

I would have thought so too, but a number of other regulars here often claim that there is a rush every tuesday by residents to sell their 500

I think Markie did the right thing in staying out of this - Im now officially leaving this thread too, no doubt to return dramatically in a few posts time

Congratulations, you just failed basic math and reasoning. As I've explained before 1US$ spent on an account will give you 325L$. You get 50 L$ regardless of your account type so the added benefit of a premium account is 450L$ per week, not 500L$.

How do you expect to be taken serious if you can't even properly grasp that? (And yes it applies to both you and "him"

Anyone know this amount?

You may want to check out this thread, it's but a sampling and is older:

/130/aa/92730/1.html

From the little I've observed, the numbers spent on Find Places and Classifieds (esp once they added the web interface) have only gone up.

You don't need the sinks to completely match the increase in the money supply per week. You guys forget that most of the L made per week is "purchased" throught the price of the accounts in USD, just at a discounted rate. So the sinks only have to get rid of the difference between the discounted rate they are bought at through the accounts, and the rate that you guys are trying to maintain.

Ie. If you wanted the L/USD to be at 250/1 and the supply increase in L was coming at 330/1 then you would only need 80L in sinks per every 330L made per week to keep the price at a stable 250/1. Of course this assumes the the printing of L is the only factor affecting the L/USD rate.

Just using the numbers from texas(even if his numbers may be incorrect)
Assume current L/USD is at 300/1 and want to keep it the same.
6.5 million increase in L being made at a rate of 360/1
60/360 * 6.5 million ~ 1.1 million in sinks needed to keep at 300/1

Confusing but I get your point I think.

Its all smoke and mirrors math anyway. Lindens sittingin an account do nothing to impact the value of the linden against the dollar. They are inert. Yes they have potential energy, but lindens unspet to not affect the lindex at all. In all likelihood lindens spent in the economy but never put on the lindex do not impact the lindex.

My thought is that perhaps fewer people are finding reasons to spend money in SL. Perhaps there is just only so long that buying hair and skins, and bling sustains the interest. Also as people acquire skills they arrive at a point where they can make most of the stuff they want, and so the amount spent purchasing goes down. Of course we encourage them to develope skills to make more money which means more products are on the market, which means more users are trying to convert L$ into US$, which increases the supply. More people wanting to make USD from SL also increases the market supply on the lindex.

At the same time, more users with skills, spending less money and making more of their own stuff means people buy less linden. Also people running into the "I don't need more crap filling my inventory, so why by the latest hair from Lost, or Munch's latest set of goth wear.

The lindex is a market and thus it is goverened by supply and demand. However the supply to the market is not directly controlled by the in world supply.

Contrast the value of the linden with the value of land.

I would think a huge supply of money in the game, all these millions of lindens being put inot the economy would drive in world prices up. Yet I do not see this happening. If anything as competion increases, in world prices drop. I notice a dramtic shift in the skin market, for example. High quality skins can be had for less than $2500L (less than $1000 if you buy one of the many starley rip-offs I see). This was not true a year ago.

this is the sort of data that I think has thus been ignored, perhaps even by LL's economist. Or at least I have not seen any results of a choerent in-world study.

Yay! Data!

Here's my own meaningless, very approximate,
and probably erroneous conclusions:

8% of the active basic accts buy buy from LindeX
35% of the active premium accts buy from LindeX
14% of all active accts buy from LindeX

The AVERAGE number L$'s bought per Week per Account:

All active accts: L$ 580 (L$ 4200 for accts that buy L$)
Basic accounts: L$ 220 (L$ 2800 for basics that buy L$)
Premium Accts: L$ 1900 (L$ 5400 for premiums that buy)

Basic accts buying L$'s average spending us$10 a week,
Premium accts buying L$'s average spending us$20 a week.
(not including premium or tier)

L$8.8mil created by stipends each week.

How much of a player's weekly spending cash comes from stipend (on average, and not including dwell):

all Basic Accounts: 18% (2% for basics that buy L$)
all Premium Accts: 21% (8% for premiums that buy)

Absurdly unsubstantiated guesses and speculations:
* Removal of all stipends will result in 20% less revenue for businesses.
* 8% of the basic accounts will probably buy 2% more lindens and not care,
* 35% of the premium accounts might buy 8% more L$'s and grumble.
* The merchants (3%?) will sell 20% fewer lindens for 20% more us$.
* The other 83% of the accounts in secondlife will think about buying from
the lindex, but never quite get around to it.

Disclaimer:
assumes all L$'s bought via lindex.
assumes same # and % of players active for Jan, Feb and Mar.
Assuming around 5mil a day in Lindex trade volumes, @ 285:1

Please click the link below. It should lead you to a page titled "Currency: Market Data."

https://secondlife.com/currency/market.php

Once there, look toward the middle of the page to the graph titled "Volume." This graph illustrates how many linden have been "bought" on a daily basis. I would presume, particularly since the LindeX is not a "day trading" type market exchange, that the people "buying" these lindens are doing so with the intent of spending them in SL, wouldn't you?

Ok, now click the "All" link under the graph.

Study the graph for a minute.

Now ... looking at that "volume" graph ....

... does it look like fewer people are finding reasons to spend money in SL?

You said it, not me

Couldn't let you have all the fun!

Well given your assumptions:
8% of the basic accounts buying their stipend = 188000L$
35% of the premium accounts buying their stipend = 2275000L$
You started with an assumption of 5M L$ volume a day so 35M L$ a week.
The added weekly demand on lindex is therefor 7%

Say the L$ now trades at 300 and you get 300000L$ a month or (not incalculating fees) 1000US$. You drop the income to 240000L$. That would require a rate of 240L$ to earn the same amount which would never happen.

To be honest:
- The 20% less revenue is pretty unlikely
- 8% of basic accounts will indeed quite likely buy the 50L$ they miss out on
- 35% of premium won't likely buy 8% more. They'll rather buy whatever they can get for the money LL charges less for their account
- While 20% less revenue is unlikely it is a lot less likely that the rate would improve 20%, to be honest it would probably hardly move at all (but that's because I'm quite sure it's unaffected by stipend)
- Off the other 83% quite a few would likely simply quit or at least move from premium to basic



As a sidenote. With all these figures in hand one can easily see that removing basic stipend is totally pointless when you want to influence the L$ rate. Say that all of the 60000 active accounts lose 50L$ a week. Thats 3000000L$ a week. With current Lindex volume of at least 6M L$ a day nothing would happen at all.

Assuming another 3% get some volume of dwell, that still leaves about 80% of the non-merchant people with a 100% reduction in their non-tringo/non-chair-camping weekly spending L$'s... which is where I'm expecting the 20% reduction in revenue/spending from.

You gotta consider tringo-down economics... players with money play tringo, and some players without money benefit. If fewer players have a pittance of a stipend to throw into th tringo pool to begin with, that results in smaller 'winnings' for the players that use it as shopping revenue. Sure most say they put 100% of their winnings back in the pot (some do even)... blah blah blah (sorry, I just had to come up with a reason to use the term "tringo-down economics" )

That's gold

Um that is the market data for lindens traded on the market. The market volume on the lindex has very little to do with in world transactions, as the seeling of lindens to the market create a positive impact on the volume, while in fact creating a negative impact on the value of the linden.

The type of data that I would like to see, but is not provided for is the daily volume of in-world transactions off set against the amount of growth in terms of numbers of accounts. Broken down on a per member spending. really good in-world data would further break this down into basic and premuim spending. Finaly a market sector analysis would be interesting to see where in world lindens are being spent.

The market volume on the lindex can be easlty altered by a few people dumping large numbers of linden on th market. this does not reflect spending by consumers in world.