How long do you think the L$ will remain stable?

My prediction is it will stay stable until September. That is 340-320L per dollar and then eventually strengthen to 300L per dollar unless LL changes something drastic again. I'm waiting until September to cash out

Why do you think it will stop at L$300/1? Why not L$280/1 or even L$250/1?

lol! strengthen?? is LL really planning on cancelling stipends?

by stable i mean bouncing around the 325 to 330 mark

October through December will be good for seller's because of the time of year.

The trend on some of the charts right now is sideways, but we haven't seen the effect of the stipend cuts I guess.

all things being the same, my prediction is until september.

VERY hard to predict at this point I think. My guess is one of the these:

1) It's still dropping, but at about $1l every few days, which means it's not noticeable much, and wil probably not drop by much by September

2) College students and high school kids are home for the summer, meaning they have more time to play online, meaning there's a lot more buying/selling going on, so it'll stay stable while they're here, and will resume its decline after everyone leaves again in September

3) LL will announce Havoc 2 in July or August, which causes the usual bounce in $L value that happens with new good features (bounce in the increase in value direction) (Havoc 2 is supposed to come out in the Summer... Whether it's last year's summer, as was mentioned in Spring a year ago, or this year's summer, which was suggested a few months ago, or next year's summer... or ever... is anyone's guess I guess).

4) LL announces they're selling $L on Lindex, or some other financial announcement, and regardless of whether it's good or bad for the economy, $L immediately drops in value by a lot, before stabilizing again.

As it is right now, I think it's closer to #1, as in it's still in a decline, although a MUCH slower one right now.

Oh quite crying!

Here use these, everthing is going to be alright despite what the freebie reseller is saying.

College students and high school kids are home for the summer, meaning they have more time to play online, meaning there's a lot more buying/selling going on, so it'll stay stable while they're here, and will resume its decline after everyone leaves again in September

I sincerely hope there are no high school students in SL. I hadn't turned 18 by the time I finished high school.

Historically, the L$ loses about 0.06% in value every day on average. Based on a calibration up to and including yesterday's data, I predict the following (errors at 95% C.L.):

June 30: L$338 +/- L$19
July 31: L$344.5 +/- L$33
Dec. 31: L$378.6 +/- L$74

And, heck, why not?

June 13, 2007: L$419 +/- L$110

all things being the same, my prediction is until september.

all things being the same, my prediction is until september.

With the removal of dwell, the end of the 250 initial balance for new accounts and the removal of stipends for new accounts, the economic landscape has changed. I don't think predictions based on the past hold as much water in the current economic model.

Every day there are hundreds or thousands of new people joining who have very little option but to purchase Lindens from the exchange. I think we'll start seeing a climb in value in the coming months.

Historically, the L$ loses about 0.06% in value every day on average. Based on a calibration up to and including yesterday's data, I predict the following (errors at 95% C.L.):

June 30: L$338 +/- L$19
July 31: L$344.5 +/- L$33
Dec. 31: L$378.6 +/- L$74

And, heck, why not?

June 13, 2007: L$419 +/- L$110

Ricky this was your prediction on 31 May, how did we get so far off in only 14 days?

The model calibration includes such things as:
(a) the great land rush of summer 2004
(b) the removal of rating bonuses and event support in January 2005
(c) the closing of GOM and opening of LindeX in October 2005
(d) the removal of telehubs in February 2006

Although there are some admittedly unrealistic assumptions that may weaken the model (i.e. I'm ignoring higher moments of the probability distribution), I doubt the things you've mentioned will have any more world-altering effect than any of the large-scale economic changes of the past.

I think that goes to the crux of the real problem. While I think stipends and dwell did contribute somewhat to the decline of the Linden in recent months, especially with the rapid growth of the population causing a flood of new money the system couldn't quite absorb, by far the biggest cause has been sudden panic after specific policy changes or announcements.

Admittedly I've only been actively participating in the Lindex since about November of last year but the value has seemed very steady most of the time followed by sharp drops in value after specific events; the telehub land buyback and the most recent accouncement of LL considering selling $L in the future for example.

Whether the recent removal of certain money creation systems will be enough to nudge the value in the other direction remains to be seen, but I certainly think we have a better chance now than we did 2 months ago.

At the current rate of growth we might see 400,000 - 500,000 residents by the end of the year meaning only 50% of the population will be contributing to new $L via stipends. Less supply, more demand

I've been involved in the economy from the beginning (heck, I pretty much *invented* it...). Look at the chart in this thread. You'll see the decline in value over time independent of punctuating events.

Of course, the arrival of information *does* cause distinct movements in the rate -- both upward and downward (witness the brief halt in the downward slide and recovery in January 2005). Given that the user numbers are drastically inflated (from other numbers given, I estimate there are no more than about 30,000 truly *active* users), I don't think the population growth will have nearly the effect you expect.

all things being the same, my prediction is until september.