Four new sims appeared today...
|
|
Alby Yellowknife
Sic Semper Tyrannis
Join date: 5 Jun 2004
Posts: 1,148
|
03-02-2005 13:36
From: Ferran Brodsky With around 600 to 700 new memberships a week since June 2004 I dont think there will be much of a land glut even assuming 20% of the new accounts are alts, that's still a steadily growing population. New memberships have dropped off a bit in the last 4 days, but, that seems to be a consistent end of the month trend...
you're just being silly, go sell land to newbies =P
(edit - wordage) What are you smoking... 700 new people a week since June? Then SL would have a population of around 40,000 people right now. But last estimates, its in the 20,000 range. Only up from about 15,000 since June '04. Anybody who says SL is getting 700/people a week, I think they need to get new glasses, cause they are seeing more than double. |
|
Dr Tapioca
Don't call me puddin'
Join date: 7 Oct 2004
Posts: 62
|
03-02-2005 14:55
*sends Cubey on a new walkabout*
|
|
Jamie Otis
Streaming Live Audio
Join date: 6 Jul 2004
Posts: 203
|
03-02-2005 15:03
sugarloaf.... mmm sugar....
on another note... so we have had Threemile and the new Fourmile sim names.. was there a twomile or a onemile?
|
|
Ferran Brodsky
Better living through rum
Join date: 3 Feb 2004
Posts: 821
|
03-02-2005 15:18
From: Alby Yellowknife What are you smoking... 700 new people a week since June? Then SL would have a population of around 40,000 people right now. But last estimates, its in the 20,000 range. Only up from about 15,000 since June '04.
Anybody who says SL is getting 700/people a week, I think they need to get new glasses, cause they are seeing more than double. Thank you for using the maximum estimate of 700... http://sl.sdfjkl.org/userdata/birthdate.spyIt averages out to near 100 new accounts per day created Thanks... Sit down |
|
Eboni Khan
Misanthrope
Join date: 17 Mar 2004
Posts: 2,133
|
03-02-2005 20:31
It would be nice if LL would stabalize and speed up the currents sims before adding more. Nothing like putting $5000 Rims on a car that needs a tune-up.  |
|
Buster Peel
Spat the dummy.
Join date: 7 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,242
|
03-03-2005 06:55
From: Prokofy Neva But that's exactly what the Lindens say they do. They claim that they roll out more sims in response to the absolute numbers of new people joining.
Hmmm.... Is it possible that LL operates like other internet businesses and has to plan in advance? Do they buy equipment in quantity in order to get a good price? If so, then perhaps they have a pile of servers in a store room. If I had a pile of servers in a store room, I'd be inclined to get 'em out and whack 'em online, even if I didn't really need 'em, because there's no sense in having them gathering dust. It's probably the case that they roll out more sims according to what their estimate WAS. In other words, they decide at the beginning of a fiscal quarter how many new members they think will join in the upcoming quarter, and plan to add sims accordingly. So they are "reacting" to a prediction. They would almost have to be operating something like that. Buster |
|
Alby Yellowknife
Sic Semper Tyrannis
Join date: 5 Jun 2004
Posts: 1,148
|
03-03-2005 07:10
Maybe we should talk about how many of those hundred people remain after their free trial account is used up? As such, "true" population is much less than the "marketed population". But this is all a guessing game, because LL still likes to hold the true population number as a state secret for some reason. In any case Ferran, check this out, I only see about a population of 20,000 players in SL.  |
|
Buster Peel
Spat the dummy.
Join date: 7 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,242
|
03-04-2005 06:49
From: Alby Yellowknife Maybe we should talk about how many of those hundred people remain after their free trial account is used up? As such, "true" population is much less than the "marketed population". So, its like counting AOL members by how many CD's they send out? (BTW you get the BIG CHART award for the day!) Buster |
|
Ferren Xia
Registered User
Join date: 18 Feb 2005
Posts: 77
|
03-04-2005 11:24
That is an interesting chart. I can see SL trending steadily upward. The subscriber base graphs for most of those other games are far more volatile.
I think the trend line shows how LL is successfully managing growth, including the availability of new land. Wide open spaces and new tracts of First Land help SL grow. If I were to show this game to potential subscribers I would never show them the congested sims with houses set too close to each other. I would show them wide open country where they could homestead. Bring on the new sims.
|
|
Buster Peel
Spat the dummy.
Join date: 7 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,242
|
03-05-2005 08:22
From: Ferren Xia That is an interesting chart. I can see SL trending steadily upward. The subscriber base graphs for most of those other games are far more volatile. It is interesting to note, though, that many of the games show a similar pattern if you look at them carefully. Sims Online is the most exagerated example. Rapid growth at first, but then they peak and decline. (The pattern is clear on the higher-limit charts on that site too.) SL doesn't look like that right now, it looks like a very nice smooth ramp-up, which is a very, very good sign. Buster |
|
Prokofy Neva
Virtualtor
Join date: 28 Sep 2004
Posts: 3,698
|
03-05-2005 08:43
From: someone Do they buy equipment in quantity in order to get a good price? If so, then perhaps they have a pile of servers in a store room. If I had a pile of servers in a store room, I'd be inclined to get 'em out and whack 'em online, even if I didn't really need 'em, because there's no sense in having them gathering dust. If you go back to the news stories of a few months ago, I think they are still on this web pages's front page, you will find that they got an investment from the guy who owns EBAY, $8 million, and they said they'd buy new servers with it, to everyone's joy. So they got a windfall investment, not planned, and they made some unplanned purchases I guess, and this happend right after the August crisis when they had ceased land production and land prices went way up and caused lots of player anger and panic. But they don't tell us what percentage of new players stay after the trial, buy, and then tier up. We would hope that they plan, yes.
_____________________
Rent stalls and walls for $25-$50/week 25-50 prims from Ravenglass Rentals, the mall alternative.
|
|
Vestalia Hadlee
Second Life Resident
Join date: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 296
|
03-05-2005 08:56
From: Prokofy Neva If you go back to the news stories of a few months ago...you will find that they got an investment from the guy who owns EBAY, $8 million.... Just to clarify one fact, the founder of eBay did not invest 8 million dollars in Linden Lab. The 8 million is a combination of funding from pre-existing investors and two new ones: Benchmark Capital and Omidyar Network. /3/34/25925/1.html I've not seen a published breakdown by source of the 8 million, but in the 10/27 town hall meeting, Phil said the new funding is "led by" Benchmark, which I take to mean that they are the largest contributor to the investment total. As an additional side note, eBay was incorporated in 1996 and is "owned" by its shareholders. According to its 2004 10-K SEC filing, its Founder/CEO holds 16% of eBay's common stock. |
|
Magnum Serpentine
Registered User
Join date: 20 Nov 2003
Posts: 1,811
|
03-05-2005 14:18
From: Anshe Chung There are still 5999970000 people who have not yet joined Second Life  Well Said. |
|
Magnum Serpentine
Registered User
Join date: 20 Nov 2003
Posts: 1,811
|
03-05-2005 14:28
From: Ferren Xia That is an interesting chart. I can see SL trending steadily upward. The subscriber base graphs for most of those other games are far more volatile.
I think the trend line shows how LL is successfully managing growth, including the availability of new land. Wide open spaces and new tracts of First Land help SL grow. If I were to show this game to potential subscribers I would never show them the congested sims with houses set too close to each other. I would show them wide open country where they could homestead. Bring on the new sims. Yes Albe, I read that chart as showing Second Life has steady growth. So What is the deal here? Besides I like seeing new land rolling out every few days. |
|
Ferren Xia
Registered User
Join date: 18 Feb 2005
Posts: 77
|
03-05-2005 16:32
Magnum, you quote my short post, and reply 'Yes, Albe (sic)...'
I could interpret that as 'Yes, Alby's alt...' Hopefully I am misinterpreting or maybe you are just kidding.
Further to the discussion, there is an interesting article on the economics of MMOs in the latest PC Gamer magazine. The writer concludes that MMO games have a distinct lifecycle. A game will increase its subscriber base rapidly, then plateau or begin its decline as subscribers move to the next new thing. In general MMO games don't recover from a decline, stage a comeback and rise to new levels of popularity. Alby's chart gives that impression.
Another chart on the same site breaks down MMOs by genre. Fantasy RPGs get an impressive 83.7% of the total population of MMO players. Science Fiction/Superhero RPGs are next with a 12.2% market share, while the category called Social/Other accounts for only 2.6% of all MMO players. That's something for LL policymakers to ponder when deciding where to allocate scarce developer resources. Improvements to support in-world games looks like the best bet.
|
|
katykiwi Moonflower
Esquirette
Join date: 5 Dec 2003
Posts: 1,489
|
03-05-2005 16:50
From: Alby Yellowknife It sucks, because every new plot of land is like a Cancer on EVERYBODY else who purchased land. The only thing of any value in SL is Land, and its being systematically destroyed. Not as long as ANshe continues to buy everythign she sees, she controls the price and keeps land high enough to make sure she earns a nice profit. |
|
Prokofy Neva
Virtualtor
Join date: 28 Sep 2004
Posts: 3,698
|
03-05-2005 17:35
From: someone investment from the guy who owns EBAY, $8 million Everything you said to correct and expand upon this shorthand is the case, you're quoting from the very stories I said to go look at. "The EBAY guy's investment" is how this is commonly discussed because he is the lead investor. It is not EBAY the company, just the same guy who is in EBAY, so EBAY's ownership type isn't at issue since he is making this investment as an individual through his other investment company, I guess. When SL then started a system of bids on EBAY for their TOP PICKS slots, it seemed to reinforce the idea that "the EBAY guy's investment" was somehow leading to the EBAY-ification of SL. But, the Lindens appeared to explain this as just the obvious thing to do, that when you want to organize bids efficiently, you use EBAY.
_____________________
Rent stalls and walls for $25-$50/week 25-50 prims from Ravenglass Rentals, the mall alternative.
|
|
Oceas Shark
Registered User
Join date: 7 Feb 2005
Posts: 17
|
03-05-2005 17:41
I guess I just don't care about the land. I prefer the world gets bigger than anything else. I'm here to relax and build stuff, not play Real Estate Tycoon. To each his own though. If buying and selling RE is your gig, more power to ya.
|
|
Anshe Chung
Business Girl
Join date: 22 Mar 2004
Posts: 1,615
|
03-06-2005 04:26
From: katykiwi Moonflower Not as long as ANshe continues to buy everythign she sees, she controls the price and keeps land high enough to make sure she earns a nice profit. katykiwi Moonflower controls economy by buy up everything she sees at Walmart. Please everybody unhappy with prices at Walmart burn her!
_____________________
ANSHECHUNG.COM: Buy land - Sell land - Rent land - Sell sim - Rent store - Earn L$ - Buy L$ - Sell L$ SLEXCHANGE.COM: Come join us on Second Life's most popular website for shopping addicts. Click, buy and smile
|
|
Khamon Fate
fategardens.net
Join date: 21 Nov 2003
Posts: 4,177
|
03-06-2005 06:32
From: Prokofy Neva But, the Lindens appeared to explain this as just the obvious thing to do, that when you want to organize bids efficiently, you use EBAY. that's true. and when you want to present dynamic, searchable information from a persistent database you use the web, and print the pages to a text face because the technology already exist out there and is impossible to replicate using the second life toolset. sorry, i'm posting to the wrong thread well darn it all in the wrong forum altogether. where's my coffee mug?
_____________________
Visit the Fate Gardens Website @ fategardens.net
|
|
Bruno Buckenburger
Registered User
Join date: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 464
|
03-07-2005 12:51
From: Alby Yellowknife It sucks, because every new plot of land is like a Cancer on EVERYBODY else who purchased land. The only thing of any value in SL is Land, and its being systematically destroyed.
SL needs more things of value other than land!!! My number 1 suggestion is being able to sell unused prims on the open market. The down side is the supply/demand of prims is directly tied to new land. The more new land, the more new prims, the lesser the value. But its a start in the right direction. Alby, I don't see how you can say that SL land is being systematically destroyed and then advocate diminishing (read: destroy) land value even further by suggesting that people start trading prims as a commodity. If I want additional prims I have to move. That means a real estate transaction when I sell and when I buy. Both are good for the economy. The situation we will face if we sell prims back and forth is that people will buy their 512 lot and just keep building up into the sky with their extra prims. It'll look like Blade Runner meets Sim Farm. I guess I'm more accepting of this because I just don't see values going down for the properties I deal in. I deal in premium properties only. Sure I have my shitholes that I can't move but it's not hard to find people who pay extra for a nice view. Those who buy huge chunks at auction sell acres and acres of shitty land are more sensitive to the price and land rollout issue. |
|
Budka Groshomme
Sparrow 23
Join date: 19 Feb 2005
Posts: 21
|
Countable Number
03-08-2005 06:40
From: Alby Yellowknife Maybe we should talk about how many of those hundred people remain after their free trial account is used up? As such, "true" population is much less than the "marketed population". But this is all a guessing game, because LL still likes to hold the true population number as a state secret for some reason. In any case Ferran, check this out, I only see about a population of 20,000 players in SL. Actually, were someone with more time on their hands could watch the count on the forum at random times over the course of a month. That would give us the count of active members, altho not the number "in-world" at any time since it counts both forum sign-ons and players. Would also provide a trend line. Might also be interesting to see how the total number of residents affects lag and other pesky effects. |
|
Catherine Cotton
Tis Elfin
Join date: 2 Apr 2003
Posts: 3,001
|
03-11-2005 07:32
From: Zuzi Martinez since we can't possibly know what the membership numbers are doing it's basically impossible to know so all we can do is speculate and doomandgloom at each other. LL does know the number tho and since they keep adding land like crazy (every time i look around the map there's something new seems like) then either they're dumb or it's a sign the crash isn't coming any time soon.  i think it's cool all this land showing up all the time. makes SL feel all dynamic and growing and it's nice having the wildernesses for a lil bit until the signs start popping up. plus i bet all the space makes people feel like expanding into it which means more premium accounts and tier for LL which means more money which means more SL! or more drunk binges and bets at the dog track if they're dumb as previously mentioned hehe. almost forgot to mention that's awesome they popped up right in front of you. i want to go running around the world with sims popping up just as i'm about to run off the edge. In the newest bringtris article it says that there are 25,000 players now. (see splash page on this web) Cath |
