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Vasudha Linden - "the economy does not need stipends to sustain it.” |
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Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Join date: 11 Dec 2004
Posts: 1,011
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03-27-2006 11:33
Incase anybody was wondering: L$293 = US$3.41 for 1000 Linden Dollars down from last months valuation of: L$272 = US$3.67 for 1000 Linden Dollars It is good that someone is keeping stats, I guess. Do you have any nice charts and graphs like Ricky used to post? _____________________
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ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
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03-27-2006 11:40
You know something else that got me thinking about
the Volume? Is LL Double Counting? Are they counting the Buy and Sale as (1) transaction or (2) transactions and then incorporating that into the daily volume. If they are counting (2), the "true" volume of L$ exchanged is actually 1/2 the total. L$6m is really L$3m. _____________________
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Blakar Ogre
Registered User
Join date: 18 Mar 2006
Posts: 209
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03-27-2006 11:41
If Prices Decline and Volume Increases, it means more people are cashing out. If price declined and volume remained unchanged, then it would suggest the decline is only held down with weak support. A few buys jump in and the price would rise.. But currently with high volume and declining prices, it says SLers are running for the doors and getting what they can, while they can. Wrong. As you've said yourself many times before: L$ are not taken out of the economy. And if you'd complete the circle you'd see that the same people selling L$ for US$ today are the same that will do it the next week and the week after. They're selling L$ simply because they need to pay LL in US$ and they receive L$ in game. They'll also cash out some of it because SL is part of what sustains their RL lives. But still at the same time somebody else has put his US $ in SL so nothing has gone away. People cashing out of the game can only be measured if you know how many people cash out US$ from their account but as LL does not provide those figures you are just guessing. If this would be really happening the side effect you'd see on the Lindex is that the available L$ would explode and the volume would decline (as people who are cashing out don't buy). But we're not seeing it at all. You're not really interested in analysing the figures. You firmly belief that you're right and that stipends are killing the economy and so you'll twist anything to support that argument. |
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Ricky Zamboni
Private citizen
Join date: 4 Jun 2004
Posts: 1,080
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03-27-2006 11:57
It is good that someone is keeping stats, I guess. Do you have any nice charts and graphs like Ricky used to post? Here you go. Unfortunately, the discussion forums are now no-attachment, so I've had to throw in into Classifieds. |
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Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Join date: 11 Dec 2004
Posts: 1,011
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03-27-2006 12:05
Here you go. Unfortunately, the discussion forums are now no-attachment, so I've had to throw in into Classifieds. What is "price" on here? an average? I wonder if it would be possible to get date, time, price and volume data for every transaction since LindeX started. Then we could make lots of neat charts!  I asked about this a while back in a thread Lawrence Linden was responding in and posting data in, but as of when I gave up and stopped watching the thread, I didn't notice if my query got a response._____________________
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Ricky Zamboni
Private citizen
Join date: 4 Jun 2004
Posts: 1,080
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03-27-2006 12:07
What is "price" on here? an average? I wonder if it would be possible to get date, time, price and volume data for every transaction since LindeX started. Then we could make lots of neat charts! I asked about this a while back in a thread Lawrence Linden was responding in and posting data in, but as of when I gave up and stopped watching the thread, I didn't notice if my query got a response.Price is the volume-weighted average price at the end-of-day. Those from GOM were calculated by me, while those from LindeX were provided by Lawrence in another thread. I was watching that thread, and no, your request for tick-by-tick data never got a response. |
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Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Join date: 11 Dec 2004
Posts: 1,011
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03-27-2006 12:14
Price is the volume-weighted average price at the end-of-day. Those from GOM were calculated by me, while those from LindeX were provided by Lawrence in another thread. I was watching that thread, and no, your request for tick-by-tick data never got a response. It's a shame that data on every tick isn't available with a simple click on the LindeX site for those who want to analyze it. It would make it a lot easier to draw more valid conclusions with less speculation. Then again, maybe this is WHY it isn't available! If they wanted to, there's gotta be some easy way to write a simple client or something to download only what you don't have so ALL the data doesn't have to be sent every single time. Or, maybe they could just have more advanced charting features on LindeX. This is on my "BLOTTD" (to borrow an LL acronym hehe) for my stock market. Surely even if they didn't want to deal with real time data, they could just generate more interesting charts in batch during low load times. IMHO, this would be a great feature to implement after buy orders are done. _____________________
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Elde Eponym
Registered User
Join date: 14 Feb 2006
Posts: 159
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03-27-2006 13:11
Stipends: BAD for L$ value but GOOD for getting new players hooked. I've run the mathematics a couple of times - and I cannot come up with a scenario where the stipend has a significant and ongoing effect on the value of the Linden. In every scenario the weekly stipend is a small, and declining, portion of the total money pool. (1) Furthermore, LL has provided numbers showing that (at least at that time) numbers showing that money sinks remove from the economy more money than the Linden contributes. Therefore; the stipend contributes little if anything to the *current* decline of the Linden. If anyone can provide a reasonable mathematical model showing otherwise - I'd welcome seeing it in it's own thread. (1) Even using an extreme edge case, with the population doubling weekly (100, 200, 400, 800,1600), each week the stipend adds a steadily decreasing percentage of the total money supply. |
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Lewis Nerd
Nerd by name and nature!
Join date: 9 Oct 2005
Posts: 3,431
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03-27-2006 13:27
Once again, they have no requirement to offer "proof of credentials" to anyone other than their employer in this context. They have publicly introduced themselves on the forum, they have stated their qualifications, do your own searches. I searched all of their five posts and found no mention of qualifications of any description, nor their experience of playing Second Life for any length of time, or whether their experience is purely real life economies or gaming economies. You may be happy for what I consider an 'unknown quantity' to make sweeping changes to the way things are, but when these things are obviously going to impact every single player's gameplay, I would rather be more certain of what is going on. Every player is affected by the economy, whether you 'play' it or merely enjoy the game as a game. I am just not confident of someone I can't seem to find any information about being in control of this. You may be happy to trust LL's judgement on this, but I remain unconvinced. Having read Phillip's account of 'spreading the love' in the offices, my confidence in them dropped considerably. Lewis _____________________
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Vudu Suavage
Feral Twisted Torus
Join date: 27 Jul 2004
Posts: 402
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03-27-2006 14:25
I searched all of their five posts and found no mention of qualifications of any description, nor their experience of playing Second Life for any length of time, or whether their experience is purely real life economies or gaming economies. Did you try reading the article that started this thread? There's a link a few posts down on page 1. _____________________
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Kyushu Tiger
Registered User
Join date: 12 Nov 2005
Posts: 92
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03-27-2006 14:50
The downside, if it was percentage based, rich people will be killed on taxes. It would have to be flat-fee based. I guess that's a downside if you're a rich person. Kyushu |
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Jopsy Pendragon
Perpetual Outsider
Join date: 15 Jan 2004
Posts: 1,906
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03-27-2006 15:58
In every scenario the weekly stipend is a small, and declining, portion of the total money pool. (1) Furthermore, LL has provided numbers showing that (at least at that time) numbers showing that money sinks remove from the economy more money than the Linden contributes. Elde- Could you link to those numbers? The only thing I've seen that was even close was highly debated and seemed to indicate the numbers were inflated because they were derived from "increase in inventory counts" not from actual uploads. To further add to the speculation, they were derived from a brief snapshot of time around 3 months ago. Without hard numbers saying otherwise, I am reasonably confident that dwell and stipends create more L$ than the sinks remove. If the dwell bonus pool is roughly the same size as the stipend pool then EVERY active player would need to put over L$100 into sinks every week. I would wager that the 'majority' of players don't upload, rate, list parcels, take snapshots or buy classifieds in sufficient volume to 'average' L$100 a week. I could even argue that with the prevelant use of camping chairs that much of the dwell bonus pool is flowing through the population much like stipends are... with only a short extra stop in the pockets of the camping chair owners. And, not to be too persnickety but if it's true that stipends are a small and declining portion of the total money pool then that would have to mean: the sinks aren't working and the L$'s are piling up, and/or dwell bonuses and other newly minted L$ entering circulation are increasing. Both of which aren't great for the valuation of the L$. But currently with high volume and declining prices, it says SLers are running for the doors and getting what they can, while they can. They might be "getting what they can, while they can." but business as usual. You clearly aren't running for the door though. (We could only be so lucky). Anyone who recently liquidated their holdings and cashed out care to speak up? Bueller? Bueller? Anybody? -- It's harder to monopolize something that materializes out of thin air. |
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Sean Martin
Yesnomaybe.
Join date: 13 Sep 2005
Posts: 584
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03-27-2006 16:04
Apparently what it needs is artificially produced "jobs." That does seem a lot less welfarish on the surface I suppose. *Claps*  _____________________
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ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
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03-27-2006 16:41
They might be "getting what they can, while they can." but business as usual. You clearly aren't running for the door though. (We could only be so lucky). Anyone who recently liquidated their holdings and cashed out care to speak up? Bueller? Bueller? Anybody? Jopsy: I'm not running for anything that would leave you the only voice around these parts. I will stay until the lights go out. As for the liquidators, they are gone, unable to reply. lol _____________________
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Jopsy Pendragon
Perpetual Outsider
Join date: 15 Jan 2004
Posts: 1,906
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03-27-2006 18:13
Jopsy: I'm not running for anything that would leave you the only voice around these parts. I will stay until the lights go out. As for the liquidators, they are gone, unable to reply. lol [FORCE SUNSET] Local Lighting is dead and buried. What... you're still here? Darn! Well, I guess I'll keep on popping your doom and gloom balloons. [/FORCE SUNSET] (seriously... did anyone else's hand leap for the lightswitch as well?) -- How about a Linden Labs run Stipend Lottery? Waive your weekly stipend for a chance to win! Have LL de-circulate half or more of the waived stipends, and award the rest as prize money. |
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Cheyenne Marquez
Registered User
Join date: 19 Sep 2005
Posts: 940
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03-27-2006 20:41
I've run the mathematics a couple of times - and I cannot come up with a scenario where the stipend has a significant and ongoing effect on the value of the Linden. In every scenario the weekly stipend is a small, and declining, portion of the total money pool. ( hi Elde, since you've already run the mathematics a couple of times, would you please post them here. It would serve to prove your point a lot clearer than just telling us you've run the math a couple of times. Your claim that weekly stipends are a small, and declining portion of the total money pool that do not have a significant and ongoing effect on the linden is hard to grasp. You are either a very talented economist or you havent got a clue. In either case, I look forward to seeing your conclusive and irrevocable mathematic computations. I am certain Vasudha Linden would, no doubt, find them interesting as well. Thank you. |
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Raudf Fox
(ra-ow-th)
Join date: 25 Feb 2005
Posts: 5,119
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03-27-2006 21:12
Math or no math, cutting the stipends wouldn't be a good idea, because frankly, I'd have to look for a new hobby. One that doesn't advertise "Just like the real world, only.. okay, /exactly/ like the real world. Go get a job, you bum!"
I would like to think that my premiums go towards something other than a bit (and I do mean a bit) of 512 land that almost inevitably winds up with huge freaking ads around it. *shrug* Removing the stipend would simply take away the carrot that keeps me paying for that billboard enclosed plot. (I should seriously consider selling the land to another billboard place, just to get out of there.) _____________________
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Elde Eponym
Registered User
Join date: 14 Feb 2006
Posts: 159
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03-27-2006 22:31
hi Elde, since you've already run the mathematics a couple of times, would you please post them here. It would serve to prove your point a lot clearer than just telling us you've run the math a couple of times. Your claim that weekly stipends are a small, and declining portion of the total money pool that do not have a significant and ongoing effect on the linden is hard to grasp. It's simple really - in the simplest case: 100 users each getting $L100/week. CODE
Running it out - you find that in week 91, that the stipend adds less than 1% to the total money pool. Now, let's examine the extreme edge case. Users doubling each week. CODE
As you can see, the numbers decrease much slower (as is to be expected), but they decrease as they must. You are either a very talented economist or you havent got a clue. In either case, I look forward to seeing your conclusive and irrevocable mathematic computations. I am niether - just someone who prefers mathematics over bias. |
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Lewis Nerd
Nerd by name and nature!
Join date: 9 Oct 2005
Posts: 3,431
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03-27-2006 23:09
Did you try reading the article that started this thread? There's a link a few posts down on page 1. Ok so having found - on an external source - a little information, Vasudha is female, and has a degree. No mention of online gaming experience, and although a proven track record (rather than just theory) would be nice I guess that's up to LL to decide whether its good enough, not us. The silence of it all is overwhelming. I have no economics degree, but by definition unless Vasudha actually plays SL, as I have 'hands on experience' of working in SL's economy, I am more qualified to comment than someone who hasn't even played SL. Sure, an account exists in game for Vasudha Linden, but then again so do most of the Suicide Girls, and how many of them never logged in? Lewis _____________________
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Fade Languish
I just build stuff...
Join date: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 1,760
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03-27-2006 23:16
No mention of online gaming experience, and although a proven track record (rather than just theory) would be nice I guess that's up to LL to decide whether its good enough, not us. I fail to see why that's even a requirement. In fact, I'd prefer someone with objectivity. |
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Cheyenne Marquez
Registered User
Join date: 19 Sep 2005
Posts: 940
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03-27-2006 23:47
It's simple really - in the simplest case: 100 users each getting $L100/week. CODE
Running it out - you find that in week 91, that the stipend adds less than 1% to the total money pool. Now, let's examine the extreme edge case. Users doubling each week. CODE
As you can see, the numbers decrease much slower (as is to be expected), but they decrease as they must. I am niether - just someone who prefers mathematics over bias. Great! So now we know you have an outstanding grasp of 3rd grade math. And your outstanding adding abilities have concluded that these stipends have dumped a nifty $20,470,000 into the economy. Now continue please... What does this prove in regard to the extraordinary money flow dumped into the economy as a result of these stipends, and how you have determined that it does not constitute a significant and ongoing effect on the value of the linden? ...Is it safe to say that this where we reach the point where you don't have a clue |
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Dmitri Polonsky
Registered User
Join date: 26 Aug 2005
Posts: 562
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03-27-2006 23:50
Ok so having found - on an external source - a little information, Vasudha is female, and has a degree. No mention of online gaming experience, and although a proven track record (rather than just theory) would be nice I guess that's up to LL to decide whether its good enough, not us. The silence of it all is overwhelming. I have no economics degree, but by definition unless Vasudha actually plays SL, as I have 'hands on experience' of working in SL's economy, I am more qualified to comment than someone who hasn't even played SL. Sure, an account exists in game for Vasudha Linden, but then again so do most of the Suicide Girls, and how many of them never logged in? Lewis True fact Lewis however I can say this much. I did IM Vasudha's name in world, knowing she is probably busy with this mess in the forums that probably actually one one percent of the SL population even uses and they are usually radical left or right at that. I do have to give her credit for answerring me, so at least we know she is paying attention. TY Vasudha, for doing so. It's actually a welcome change from the norm. |
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Fade Languish
I just build stuff...
Join date: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 1,760
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03-27-2006 23:52
Elde I looked at your post several times thinking I must be missing something. That didn't seem to be logical. It's not the percentage of an individual stipend, it's how much it may add to total money supply.
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Selene Gregoire
Eyes of the Wolf
Join date: 14 Sep 2005
Posts: 681
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03-27-2006 23:59
If stipends are hoarded then obviously they don't add to the supply, just as it is obvious if stipends are spent they do add to the supply. How many people hoard thier stipends? How many don't? I'd be willing to bet that very few hoard if any.
Something else to think about... who has the right to tell others what to do with thier Ls or how they get them? No one. No one has died and made anyone else in SL God.  |
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Blakar Ogre
Registered User
Join date: 18 Mar 2006
Posts: 209
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03-28-2006 01:42
Elde I looked at your post several times thinking I must be thinking something. That didn't seem to be logical. It's not the percentage of an indivudual stipend, it's how much it may add to total money supply. His point is that total stipends add less to the total money supply (in percentage) as time progresses. So their weekly impact on the money supply reduces and hence if they would really influence the L$ rate the impact should be decreasing every week. After a while it would simply be so minor that it doesn't matter at all. Note that it isn't really a guarantee as it depends a bit on how the market goes. If for example all stipends would end up on the Lindex and the offered money on the Lindex would grow every week then the stipends would indeed be responsible. Though as that is obviously not the case he's probably right. The latest rate surge for the L$ nicely coincided with the land store launch so amidst all the "everybody is cashing out" doomtalk it would be wise to go and check how much of the converted US$ is reinvested in buying sims. Maybe LL should give some insight on what people really do with the US$ on their accounts. Do they cash out or do they need the money simply because they want to get their hands on sims. |