Tried cashing out lately?

Not a happy bunny. I'm sitting on just under 250k with quite a lot more to come shortly and the L$ is dropping like a stone. I'm reluctant to add to the slide by dumping, but how much longer can I stand by and watch my US$ value evaporate?

I just checked and IGE, rather sensibly on reflection, seem to have suspended L$ trading - certainly they aren't buying L$...

Anyone got any bright ideas (leaving eBay out of it thankyou)?

Wonder if BusinessWeek know about the state of the L$?

Yes, you are feeling the full brunt of the L$ ocean supply.

I'd sell right NOW. The value of the L$ is very likely to just keep falling unless the supply side quagmire is cleared up.

I think what you mean is stopping idiots panic selling and putting L$4 million roadblocks up that screws up everything for everybody.

Lewis

the simple fact is not the supply of money in game, but the supply of money up for sale. Ever since the announcement that LL was going to sell L$ on the lindex themselves, the L$ value dropped 20 points. Why? Because of the percieved value of L$, people are cashing out any amount of L$ they have in order to get whatever they can from it. if LL never made that anouncement, we would probably still be at a rate of 300 where it was actually stabelizing!
Now we see a new influx of selling because LL yet again sends out a notification of a change in the lindex. This is a scarry moment for everyone holding L$. So now people are going to sell everything off as fast as they can once again to get what they can before the bottom falls out from underneath.
As we continue to supply the lindex with an overbundance of L$ that far outweighs the volume of L$ puchased daily, we will continue to decline into a depression where our L$ is just about worthless. Never in the entire life of SL have I seen the value this low. Right now, I would suggest for people to just hold onto their money. The market will improve, but we all just need to exercise a little patience.
I currently hold an extremely large amount of L$, but only cash out what I absolutely need to cover tier. Thats it. If we can all just exercise a little bit of discipline, we can level out the playing field, and bring the value back to where we would all be comfortable. Just remember though, the higher the value of the L$, the lower the volume of L$ purchases.

I'm definatly not SLs top economic mind (), but someone said in another thread that sooner or later LL will do something to stabalise the L$. And I don't think we've seen the effects from removing dwell yet.

It depends how long you can do without the US$. And how much of a gamble you're willing to take.

If I were you, and could do without the US$ for a bit, I'd wait. Of course, this is just from reading on the forums and gut feeling.

Zap

Did you read the OP's plight?

People have an over-supply of linden to sell. In other words, the supply of linden are overwhelming the demand. Nothing anybody can do about that but reduce the supply of linden.

What do you suggest people do, hold their linden for ever?

And if so, then what?

Have you glanced at the lindex lately, the value of the linden hasn't increased in...well...

...never!!!

And this my friend is the attitude we are trying to curb. Its people with your thinking that just keep undercutting everyone else. Its panic syndrom, I understand.

Yes I read it, and it too failed to address the real issue, that of large amounts being cashed out and creating hold-ups in the market. It's not a "plight" on the part of the OP any more than it is the hundred other threads she and many others have made with the same tiresome non-existant problem.



How about... an innovative new way of trading that doesn't involve L$? It's quite clear that the problem is caused by people with huge L$ holdings, which are mostly land barons, causing the very problem that they are complaining about, the devaluing of the L$. Or perhaps a barter type system? Something that relies on goodwill instead of cash?



Blame the land barons for that.

Lewis

If you understood anything about market forces, you would know that there is nothing you can do about "panic syndrom" as you call it. The bottom line is that there is an overwhelming supply of linden in the economy, and the buying side of the equation can not keep up with the selling side.

If you don't believe this, eliminate the stipends and then come on these forums and scream all of the "sell your lindens, the sky is falling" rhetoric you want. I guarantee you the value of the linden wills strengthen. So that it is economic policy that is devaluing the linden, not what you call 'panic syndrom."

A basic understanding of Econ 101, and the laws of supply and demand, would allow those who attribute this to anything other than an over supply of linden in the world, to get a better grasp of the situation at hand.

I think calling it a 'panic' is probably misunderstanding the situation - at any given moment a certain number of people with substantial holdings must be in the process of leaving SL, or at least reducing their financial stake, for any number of reasons.

Might it not be that of late there have been rather more people than usual leaving?

And with IGE, which was the ideal way of cashing out substantial sums, having withdrawn from the L$ market, Lindex is the only way to go, thus flooding the Lindex with considerably more L$ sales than in the past?

I must admit that hanging on a month or so seems the sensible option - but - that graph didn't look good even before Robin put her foot in it so spectacularly. Since then things seem to be going from bad to worse at a worrying rate.
Considering that level of misjudgement it's difficult to put any trust in LL's ability to improve the situation.
The only hope I can see is that the market might correct itself. But with the 'Summer slump' looming I honestly can't see that happening any time soon.

To add my $L 0.02...

I think it's worth the gamble to hold on to your $L and let the panic pass, but you have to do what is best for your situation. The bubble is definately related to the Linden "Black Monday" announcement and should right itself eventually.

Also, as another poster mentioned, we haven't seen the effect of dwell removal yet, or whatever actions LL may take. Linden Lab has a vested interest in the $L stabilizing. If people start to tier down, or give up rented lands based on the $L fall in value, then LL takes a hit in their main revenue stream.

You could also sell whatever portion you currently need, and then re-evaluate the market at set intervals.

Most importantly, I think it's good to consider the bias and hidden agendas of some posters. Some individuals profit in an unstable market and will do what they can to contribute to panic. Others want their "this is only a game" hatred of $L trading stance vindicated.

At the end of the day only you can decide what you're willing to risk.

Hmmm, maybe the smart move would be to shove it into GOM while I wait?

Oh.. on a side note. IGE has periodically stopped buying $L when they are oversupplied. I hear though that they are being bought out by another company atm and have suspended some of their operations during the process.

That might explain things - however, they aren't selling L$ either, which suggests they aren't holding any.
I think I can see why too...

Though a business sale might require them to reduce their holdings substantialy of course - bloody awful timing from my point of view though!

Interesting, this is exactly what I have ben saying. Oh yes, and I have taken Economics 200, and am currently attending economics 201. so 101 is a little beneath me right now

With all due respect Jason, your posts do not reflect it.

As a matter of fact I have and so should you and everybody else reading this forum. All you have to do is look at 'LindeX Market Data' hit the show all button and see all the historical data. When you do you will see that when the Lindex opened it was selling L$ for around L$300/1 and the value rose over the next month to L$250/1 were is stayed for another month. There was another correction around Janurary 2006 where it went from L$280/1 to L$270/1. While the general trend from the L$250/1 rate has be a steady devaluation there has been the one correction and a number of plateaus.

So? The trend is devaluation, the plateaux don't really matter.

Since the February L$270/1 highs yes.

The usual response to currency devaluation is to raise prices.

If your customers are getting $L 316 for their $US 1 and you charge $L 158 for your product, then it's the same value as when you were charging $L 125 and they were getting $L 250 per $US 1.

You only get in a bind if your customers perception of value is changed.

(I know the above is basic economics, but it bears repeating).

Lets see, if you sell it to the rate its atm:
US$753.90 25k/320
US$731.05 25k/330 <-- where we are going to
US$670.13 25k/360 <--- the magic line
US$861.60 25k/280 <--- memories OMG!

So I wouldnt wait until it hit the 360..

I been cashing out as soon as I got a fair ammount of Lindens and take the few cents loss.. I sleep a lot better knowing its all on my paypall account I keep enough Dollars in game to pay tier/membership/fun.

When the time comes that I might want to buy more Lindens I can do that with a smile on my face.. You can buy cheap nowadays and again its just a few cents loss. Nothing to get worried about.

Anyway with 250k you can loose or gain a few dollars with this rate.. I Dont think you should worry to much about it (yet).

I would just sell it, cash out, buy some stuff in RL and just have fun with it.

This is what I was talking about...

It's not good
I can't help wondering just how bad things are going to get - so much for all the advertising bs Phil comes out with at every possible chance he gets.
*shrugs*
Myself, I still just don't know what to do. I'm not depending on SL for RL income. But I'd like to salvage some of the considerable sum I've invested here.
SOME sign of an attempt to improve the exchange rate would be encouraging. And I don't consider killing traffic incentives to be a meaningful move.
There are two printing presses still running flat out in SL.
Stipends and Land.
I can't see any improvement until both are stopped to soak up the excess L$ supply that is fueling the LS devaluation.

After, well, personally I think only Land should be restarted. Where will L$ come from? Let LL supply them at somewhere between 250-275/US$
OK, they make mone 'printing' money - so what? At least they might be able to maintain a stable economy and provide for growth in future.

At present not only are residents loosing faith in the L$ - so are third parties. That's a VERY bad sign.

This is what I was talking about...

It's not good
I can't help wondering just how bad things are going to get - so much for all the advertising bs Phil comes out with at every poosible chance he gets.
*shrugs*
Myself, I still just don't know what to do. I'm not depending on SL for RL income. But I'd like to salvage some of the considerable sum I've invested here.
SOME sign of an attempt to improve the exchange rate would be encouraging. And I don't consider killing traffic incentives to be a meaningful move.
There are two 'printing presses' still running flat out in SL.
Stipends and Land.
I can't see any improvement until both are stopped to soak up the excess L$ supply that is fueling the LS devaluation.

After, well, personally I think only Land should be restarted. Where will L$ come from? Let LL supply them at somewhere between 250-275/US$
OK, they make mone 'printing' money - so what? At least they might be able to maintain a stable economy and provide for growth in future.

At present not only are residents loosing faith in the L$ - so are third parties. That's a VERY bad sign.

Everyone keeps tossing out the 250/1 ratio. Ever stop to think that LL might have a different target in mind? Like, oh, say 361/1?

The trend is your friend, my friend. You understand this. You will not be one of the unlucky fools who end up with worthless L$.

Good for you!