Currency Exchange Oppinion poll

I have been watching the market data trend for the past few months, and have noticed that it continually increases. At first, I thought it was due to people always wanting instant gratification and always cashing out at 1L$ lower than everyone else. This was until I started noticing the continuous posting of currency at L$300/1US$ or more when the market is somewhat stable around L$285-L$295. It seems to me that someone is trying to cause inflation as I always see a 2-5 opint gap between these sales and everyone else, where everyone else is selling at L$295 and then the next set of sales is at L$300+! A 5 point gap for the sales? that is more than someone trying to sell their L$ fast. Its someone manipulating the market.

There is only one person I could think of that would have an interest in an inflated L$ market, and I hope they would not have stupped this far to be that diabolical.

So I post this opinion pole... What do you think of the L$ currency exchange market?

Wow. What I've been watching is -this board- waiting for someone else to see that.

Nobody else sees the constant 'pings' at exactly 300 over and over again?

I didn't want to bring it up because folks would tinfoil-hat me, but its *damn* obvious that someone wants to bring the Lindex down to or below 300.

Take a look at the 90 day history. It looks like the graph is held up like a 'suspension bridge' with a bunch of sales at exactly 300. Look at the daily graph: througout the day there are constant plots at exactly 300. 300 is the number someone wants to see, and it's working, because everyone else is too busy sitting on their thumb and rotating.

All these high-falootin' stories of economic models and stipends and sinks --- NO. Someone's just constantly dumping 500k-2mil at 300, over and over again.

Like this morning.

Why would you put a million at 300 when the rest was at 295? You could put it at 296 if you wanted to sell fast.

So, Jason. I give *you* a gold star, even though the following posts will probably be a littany of folks saying that what we're saying is poppycock. You hit the nail on the head, even if other folks out there don't want to see it.

Someone out there -- likely an organization that has a lot of debt in Lindens -- (and if you don't think this exists, you haven't been paying attention) wants the value of the Linden to be lower so they dont take a hit on the money that they've, ahem, "invested" for their depositors.

This will fall on deaf ears, though; or the ears of people who would rather masturbate on or about their newly-minted econ degree from Pumpfunk U.

Occam's razor. It just isn't that damn complicated. No grand economic theory. Just someone trying to push the market down.

(It'll be interesting if suddenly after this thread shows up, whoever's doing this "shakes up their game" a little by starting to post L$ a little more randomly, say 298-305. )

"Someone out there -- likely an organization that has a lot of debt in Lindens -- (and if you don't think this exists, you haven't been paying attention) wants the value of the Linden to be lower so they dont take a hit on the money that they've, ahem, "invested" for their depositors."

Can you explain this in simple terms for an idiot?

How can you have debt in Lindens? Someone owes someone else a bunch so wants to spend less USD to get them to pay back or, then, but when, WHY would they sell at 300 then? Wah!

-> collect over 20 million L$ from people at high rates
-> buy forreign currency with it(usd)
-> speculate the market with some of it to make L$ loose value
-> so your foreign currency(usd) can worth more.

But i dont think(i hope not) they are doing this, because it is a risky business. Can loose alotof money while trying to make profit with speculations.
But maybe they are putting 1 million at a rate on lindex so people are putting at lower rates then cancelling sell request and putting at a lower rate again. I am not sure, i dont have enough data to decide about this.

Ah I see, so it depends on you covering your speculative losses with the /eventual/ profit (doesn't sound very clever to me), or as you say, gaming the system by cancelling orders. Thanks!

No. It's just "banking", and promising impossible 'interest rates' on deposits.

Collect 5 million Linden, promise 10% compounded return on investments, but then sink the market by 20% so while your 'customers' think they're getting 'free lindens', they're actually coming out about even.

Meanwhile, pay your old investors with new investments.

These aren't the numbers, they're just used for examples, but there's no investment in foreign currency or prim baby futures needed.

In other words, you've already cashed out at the higher rate, and are returning L$ to your customers by buying them at a much lower rate, netting you a profit, or at least the ability to keep the whole racket going while you have a lot of L$ in your account to do with what you will.

Yeah, a lot of folks think it's a cock n' bull story, but I'm not worried, it'll all come out in the wash eventually.

Seeing as right now, there is 320K @ 305 and 998K @ 300 which I think is idiotic... If someone was only trying to speculate the market and repurchased the money back at a rate average of 303, they would have to resel the 1.3 mil at 284 just to break even with what they repurchased it at, and still take a US$200 loss from the initial sale.

I still believe that it is manipulation by someone who has enough L$ to drop over 1 mil L$ every other day or so. I mean come on! a jump from not just 295 to 300, but now a jump from 300 to 305? If this doesn't scream manipulation, I don't know what does!

LOOK! No sales between 300 and 305. this is purpously done! I feel like I am watching the pied piper leading the currency market in a downward trend. "Ok, now we just post another mil @ 5 points higher, and look, everyone follows my lead to sell at lower rates. We have them now pinky..."

Told same thing
-> buy foreign currency with it(usd)=you've already cashed out at the higher rate
they were steps

You've got it, chief. I wonder what the new 'set point' will be. I bet we'll see a constant drum of 350 here in the next few days.

Someone's probably giggling like a pig in sh*t about all this.

Nah. It's stipends. Gotta be stipends.

ya. especially that L$50/wk one. That's where we're *really* feeling the burn. Hot-cha.

Guess I should hold off buying for a little while then because I'll get an even better deal for my money when all this resolves and it starts to head back up again.

Lewis

Stipends are spread out among thousands of residents. stipends have nothing to do with this. Its sheer manipulation. Look at yesterdays high(L$500) and now todays high is seen as 939! WHO THE HELL WOULD SELL AT L$939/1US$????!?!?!?!? This is blatent manipulation. I blame it on the lack of safeguards to keep people from selling at whatever rate they want. basically, if you have the money to lead people along, you can push the market in any direction you wish!

And then once they gain enough money at a low low price, they can just sit back and watch the economy return back to normal and maybe even back to 250 and then cash out millions at the better selling rate. Or they can introduce a new type of alternate currency that people would convinced is worth more, and jump from a ship they are convinced is sinking.

Hell, nothing wrong with that. Momentary lows happen. I'm just saying I don't think this is a momentary low.

Really, Lewis. What makes you think that this -isn't- going on?

Yah, I agree. Kinda glad I dumped my stash this morning.

heh. Ordinal was being cynical, Jason.

Mate, I was being sarcastic.

edit: cross-post - cynical too...

"WHO THE HELL WOULD SELL AT L$939/1US$????!?!?!?!?"

I saw that, thought it was someone trying to start a panic.

I didn't say for one minute it didn't look like manipulation. However, as a purchaser, I'd like the rate to drop further still before I buy L$.

So if I buy at L$350 and sell when it's L$275 ... I make lots of money, right?

Lewis

Paranoia and conspiracy theories will no doubt run rampant. However, there may be a more likely reason for the violent price fluctuations...

...Panic selling due to the uncertainty of the A$ announcement by Anshe.

Expect wild price fluctuations to continue until a confidence level is restored within the overall scope of the economic situation as it stands now with the SL economy.

Dumping Lindens at a silly low price would not benefit anyone, not even a short seller (borrower), money launderer, or foreign currency trader. They would benefit more by selling at market rates.

This strikes me as someone with an axe to grind.

Well, if it gets as low as 333 then I guess we'll see what the An$he has to offer.

And the other things is, Linden Labs obviously knows who is doing this, so maybe they could politely ask them why.

Hmmm... maybe thats what this mystery seller is trying to accomplish?

Oh yes, and I know that the stipend remark was sarcastic, I was making another point. lol

Now let me see... what would I do if I wanted to push my own currency....

1) announce the coming availability of foo$ on public forums and get ridiculed

2) Manipulate the market with the millions and millions of dollars I saved up in L$ to drop the L$ value

3) Create widespread panic of the devaluation of the L$

4) Realease my Foo$ into the market with a semi-easy to use interface for exchanging the now worthless L$ for stable Foo$ in a currency other than US$ at the right time to look like a god. Maybe yen or silver. I could even back it with diamonds that I claim are in a bank safe.

5) sit back and watch the L$ continue to become worthless as I dominate the currency exchange market.

It could happen.... Someone might try it...

Anshe Chung explained that.

AnsheChung.COM needed to sell 2m Lindens fast. She found that if they put that much on the exchange at 1 point below they'd sell about 10% of the block and then it would stall as other people started selling 1 point below that. So she put 2M on at 300 and was able to unload them all in one day.