Demand for land is weak, in spite of the flood of new accounts

With one day left in June, the number of acres auctioned is way down
compared to last month (only 44% of May's acreage auctioned in June).

Acres Auctioned
May 2,437
June 1,075

The number of islands added are down (86% of May)

Islands added
June 125
May 144

The land sales by residents are down (89% of May)
June 4,369
May 4,911

So the number of accounts has gone up with the unverified accounts, and we are told the proportion of international accounts is up, but what is happening to the land business? I suspect the reason the L$ stopped its slide in value vs. the US$ is that the Lindens slowed the flood of new land somewhat. Less new land flushing through the system means land barons are not having to dump massive quantities of Lindens on the Lindex to make their tier payments? Is the land market getting saturated?

It does not appear to me that the anonymous unverified accounts are resulting in a robust demand for land.

see https://secondlife.com/currency/economy.php

If you would take a moment to realize how the land works, it is a supply and deman for land. if land sales are low, and decreasing in value, then you need to stop putting new land on the market and wait for the number of players to increase to increase the demand for land. then the value will rise along with the sales.

Thats because most of the new accounts will be alts of existing players, or created purely for griefing purposes.

When something is free, it is generally perceived to be valueless. By making SL free forever with unlimited gameplay, there is very little incentive for people to go up to premium to buy land (and of course create more badly needed revenue for Linden Labs).

Unfortunately the removal of credit card verification has made the whole exercise a waste of time, but if SL had a 14 day free trial where you could cancel at any time and not be charged, or charged a $9.99 one-off fee to continue paying on the basic level, then it would be perceived by the great unwashed to have some value, and therefore a reason for giving it a go - with the likely bonus that they would become so hooked on what SL offers that they'd go and splash out on some land to take a full part in the experience for themselves.

As it stands, SL has the value of an aeroplane sick bag. It serves a purpose, but has no long term usage potential or attraction (especially after it has been used).

Lewis

More likely it's that land is extremely overpriced.
Remember, newbies enter SL now with no money... how are they meant to pay your premium prices?

Upgrade to a premium account, buy first land, sell it, get more money on Lindex, and buy a decent plot, same way as we always have?

Or... if you'd rather stay basic and rent... buy money on Lindex like we always have.

Lewis

Most of the content available through internet is equally 'worthless' in the sense it costs you nothing extra to access. Yet it doesn't make people stop visiting web pages, discussion areas, game sites etc... because they're interested in provided content, be it information, fun, social experiences and whatever. So what you say doesn't really ring true, in the sense reality proves it to work quite different....

Never have bought on Lindex, never will!

My point was, that nowadays, the influx of free accounts will never generate a desire for land, because to get land, in some way they need to stop being free accounts.

Most non-commercial websites are either done by home users paying out of their own pocket to provide content (similar to premiums subsidising basic accounts) - or are slapped full of advertising/or popups to generate revenue (similar to parcel traffic, except we aren't paid any more to attract visitors).

Lewis

An avatar can survive forever on L$0 and no land. Assuming he doesn't open a business or pluck from money trees, he can survive on freebies, gifts, and his own creations.

Griefing aside, there is a lot you can do even if you don't make a single texture, sound, or animation upload. I had a small stipend and some starting money, but I could have gone on spending none of it if I chose to.

And it doesn't always work like that. I was scammed out of a quarter sim of land just over a year ago by a former partner. I won't name names here, you'll have to ask me elsewhere, but basically, in order to keep the mall alive, she talked me into leting her have it temporarily for nothing... and two weeks later, Katykiwi (another innocent in the whole debacle) bought it from her for over L$100,000 thinking she was buying from me, or at least the group...

Having land doesn't make you rich in SL... being a thief does.

This might be true for the month as a whole, but the worst land costing more than the lowest auction price shows that land is on an upswing right now. When land is so demanded that the auctions can't keep up, then prices are bound to be on the rise. It'll fall again later. The most predictable thing about a market is that it will rise and fall.

Which has zero to do with your original point -- "SL has no worh because if people are not paying to access it, they never develop attachment to actually stay around"...

WOOT for ignorance! I signed up with a free account and stayed free for a month before spending a penny here. LL has since made thousands off of me. If it had been a 14 day trial I probably wouldn't have joined and certainly wouldn't have stayed. Free accounts DO convert to revenue generating accounts. Not all of them not most of them but they DO achieve the effect of getting people to try it and decide to spend money they otherwise wouldn't have. Getting an account has been free longer than either of us have been here but oddly enough BOTH of us have upgraded as have thousands of others. I suggest you rethink your nonsense so that it meshes with reality.

Do you sell on the LindeX?

Yes, but you know as well as I do that we are very much in the minority.

There is sadly now little incentive for people to upgrade to premium to own their own land when they can just as easily rent a little parcel from someone - despite the inherent risks associated with renting.

Our gameplay styles are very different. Have you considered that what you call 'reality' is not so to me, simply because of that one little fact?

Lewis

But the demand for private island space remains excellent from what I've seen, at least in the Caledon sims. Folks with 'free' accounts may well be 'renting/leasing' land rather than moving to paid accounts and buying mainland. As long as this happens, the Lindens are still in good shape as they continue to add via private island sales rather than mainland sim sales. The up fronts are higher on the private islands (good for the Lindens), the tier is still there for them.

The mainland has its plusses and minuses. The big plus is that you own the land, no one can decide to close up their private island and disappear on you, and no one can tell you your build doesn't fit the theme, that you're too laggy, that you can't strut about nude even if it is a mature island, etc. The downside is that your neighbors can build ugly things, overlag the entire sim with their scripted whatevers or huge popular club, etc and leave you with land that will be hard to sell for even break even price much less a profit.

Either way, you're putting out either real world cash or hard earned Lindens and, either way, the Lindens are getting their share.

For my money, if you want a beautiful home, with peaceful neighbors, go find a private island to lease on. For my own part the Victorian era sims in Caledon are where its at, but that's me.

Char

First of all, renters are great. They pay the people that own the land, who inturn pay LL for that same land. Everyone wins.

Second, I think the demand for land is on the rise. If it wasn’t, I don’t see how new sims would be going for $1100-$2500+. Also, look in the Sales, the cheapest land is about 4.7l/m. Not too long ago, land was selling for around 3.5l/m. Basic economics tells us that an increase in demand also creates an increase in price. So, all in all, I think the SL economy is as strong as it has ever been.

Is the demand for land really going up? The numbers for June suggest that overall it is down, but I'm sure some sorts of land still has strong demand, and there is always a greater fool to buy what someone else wants to sell. What is really interesting is that the Lindens seem to have decided to slow the flood of land added to the market. Since they need to make money, and have not in the past been particularly shy about stuffing the land market with 110% of what it could handle, I do think the overall demand is down... in spite of all the accounts created since June 6th.

My point is that the account growth is seems to be driven by a lot of non-land owner accounts being created. Alts maybe? If there are loads of new players I would expect them to be buying more land than is reflected in the economic statistics.

Also, I get suspicious when I see the Linden hype machine focusing on something like population growth. It makes me think they are trying to draw attention away from something else (weak land sales). But I'm strange.

See, I don’t see that. The so called land has been, and is not really controlled by the Lindens. Well it is, but at the same time, not really. New sims have always gone onto the auctions at 1000USD. Oddly enough, there are a few sims that have been sitting at this price for a long time. No one wants to bid on them. So, as long as those sims sit there, there is no need to place new sim on the auction block to be sold. I wish there was a way to tell how many renters are out there, but we don’t have that data. You may be right, but it seems that land sales and land rentals are both up.

Neither of us know the actual numbers. And if you know ANYTHING about sales and advertising the minority IS your target. Just because an advertising technique(in this case free accounts) doesn't convert the majority of contacts to paying customers doesn't mean it's a failure. May I recommend some basic business education?



Renting still creates a demand for land which channels USD into LL's pockets, a renter is a successfully conversion to profitable customer.



Our gameplay styles have exactly NOTHING to do with how marketing works.

OK, who hacked Lewis' account?!?

Weren't you the one supporting handing out free lindens?

Weren't you the one supporting the move to no-verification accounts?

Yes, this is the risk. When the linden hit 484, premium accounts are worthless to anyone that doesn't want to own a lot of land. At that point, it will be cheaper to buy $6/month of lindens on lindex, and rent 512 worth of land.

If you look at the monthly fees rather than yearly, we've already crossed that break even point. $10 on lindex goes a lot further than a premium account with stipend and land does.

Nobody.



If you count "keep stipends" as that, then yes.



No, most definitely not at any point. I remain strongly against it.

Lewis

Sorry on that point, I must have gotten confused.

Though you have to admit it's a little funny for you to say "if you give something away it will seem worthless" and on the other hand encouraging the giveaway of lindens. You've said yourself you think content creators should have the ability to profit from their work.

Ahem! Someone mentioned that those of us with premium accounts do not get those Linden Dollar Stpends for free. In fact, it's been mentioned that what we pay in land use fees and premium membership does not in any way, shape or form cover what we get in Lindens.

Hmmmmm ....

Since I'm paying US$50.00 each month, and I'm getting less than L$2,500 each month for "free," I daresay, this "free" money is a bit of a sham!

Would you pay US$50.00 for L$2,500? I don't think so!