Long Term chart of linden vs. dollar

Unless I'm wildly misinterpreting your meaning of "max movement", this is simply false. The peak value of the L$ was back on August 30, 2004, when it had a value of L$170.88/US$ ($5.852/block, as traded). The day before we announced we were closing (27 September, 2005), the rate had dropped to L$302.55/US$ ($3.3052/block, as traded). That's a full 52% drop in the currency valuation in the span of just over a year. As the LindeX chart shows, the currency recovered briefly once people moved over from GOM, but it has since resumed its slide toward historical lows.

For fun, I calibrated a simple lognormal return model to the latest set of LindeX data using various data windows in order to try to gauge the movement. Even ignoring the large downtrend of the last 10 days(i.e. model calibrated to the three weeks of data from Dec 20, 2005 to Jan 9, 2006), the rate should drop to ~L$310/US$ by the end of the year unless something significant is done to affect the slide. Including the current downtrend (i.e. model calibrated to the last four weeks of data), the situation is much more extreme, with an exchange rate at year end of over L$500/US$.

My recommendation is to ignore the "canonical" L$250/US$ target. As I mentioned in a previous post, that number is an accident of history without any basis in market fundamentals.

TY Lawrence. I don't want to sound too datahungry, but ... Would it be possible to include the daily trading volume in the historical data?

Just to further back up what Ricky has said, there is further indication of strong overall inflation in some of the data we track at SL Exchange. The attached image clearly shows the upward march of the average price per sale and according to all the trending algorithms we've used, inflation is accelerating.

Just for grins, go check out the link Phillip posted (http://www.iccfx.com/history.php3) and chart the Euro vs the US$ over the span of one month. (24/01/2006 - 24/02/2006 is what I used)

OMG, look at all the inflation!

Now back that timespan out over several years (say, five) and check out the results. (24/01/2001 - 24/02/2006)

One month is simply not enough data to convince me that the sky is falling, Mr. Little.

Hey, Lawrence! More data, please.

What are you looking for a refresh? Or additional data such as daily volume? I'd love to get together a GOM->LindeX combined dataset with daily average price and daily volume.

Cheers,
Lawrence

That would be swell.

A updated set of price data would be enough for me. I think the last reporting date was late January.

Attached updated data, including daily volume.

Cheers,
Lawrence

Anybody notice the (Downward) trend?
11% Decline in 5 months.

Classic Economic Policy leading to Mudflation.

High: US$3.98/L$1000 on Oct 29th, 2005
Low: US$3.55/L$1000 on Mar 8th, 2006


=====


10/29/2005,3.9809,251.2,1840963
10/30/2005,3.9679,252.02,2379857
10/31/2005,3.9546,252.87,1842253
11/1/2005,3.9404,253.78,1952847
11/2/2005,3.9341,254.19,2217752
11/3/2005,3.9456,253.45,2381938
11/4/2005,3.9234,254.88,2558161
11/5/2005,3.933,254.26,2576607
11/6/2005,3.9369,254.01,2892558
11/7/2005,3.935,254.13,3038866
11/8/2005,3.9305,254.42,2735155
11/9/2005,3.9358,254.08,2686139
11/10/2005,3.9347,254.15,3034940
11/11/2005,3.9459,253.43,3515192
11/12/2005,3.9571,252.71,3195101
11/13/2005,3.9651,252.2,3463350
11/14/2005,3.9651,252.2,3686916
11/15/2005,3.9638,252.28,2767771
11/16/2005,3.973,251.7,3532387
11/17/2005,3.7077,269.71,3165223
11/18/2005,3.9661,252.14,2955010
11/19/2005,3.9602,252.51,3253215
11/20/2005,3.9398,253.82,3257222
11/21/2005,3.9487,253.25,3113820
11/22/2005,3.9523,253.02,2664566
11/23/2005,3.907,255.95,2940507
11/24/2005,3.8676,258.56,2477439
11/25/2005,3.8758,258.01,2950455
11/26/2005,3.8745,258.1,2918882
11/27/2005,3.8824,257.57,3727847
11/28/2005,3.8591,259.13,3069076
11/29/2005,3.7863,264.11,3158471
11/30/2005,3.7543,266.36,3279062
12/1/2005,3.7593,266.01,3950240
12/2/2005,3.7807,264.5,3617450
12/3/2005,3.7977,263.32,4172123
12/4/2005,3.7954,263.48,3505981
12/5/2005,3.7771,264.75,3654936
12/6/2005,3.8102,262.45,2630636
12/7/2005,3.7732,265.03,3590340
12/8/2005,3.7819,264.42,3345373
12/9/2005,3.7791,264.61,3252517
12/10/2005,3.7873,264.04,3539457
12/11/2005,3.7889,263.93,3042640
12/12/2005,3.7844,264.24,2891276
12/13/2005,3.7956,263.46,3353250
12/14/2005,3.7726,265.07,3679109
12/15/2005,3.7593,266.01,4192363
12/16/2005,3.7702,265.24,4255405
12/17/2005,3.7796,264.58,3883660
12/18/2005,3.7918,263.73,3649234
12/19/2005,3.761,265.89,3519174
12/20/2005,3.7602,265.94,3694098
12/21/2005,3.76,265.96,4053543
12/22/2005,3.7653,265.58,4889542
12/23/2005,3.7553,266.29,4166781
12/24/2005,3.7625,265.78,3250707
12/25/2005,3.7668,265.48,2863536
12/26/2005,3.7696,265.28,3448969
12/27/2005,3.7413,267.29,3364101
12/28/2005,3.706,269.83,4418168
12/29/2005,3.7301,268.09,4120359
12/30/2005,3.7389,267.46,4973452
12/31/2005,3.7625,265.78,5031195
1/1/2006,3.7514,266.57,4932577
1/2/2006,3.7471,266.87,4893486
1/3/2006,3.7474,266.85,4315224
1/4/2006,3.7243,268.51,3622585
1/5/2006,3.72,268.82,4216376
1/6/2006,3.7373,267.57,4181219
1/7/2006,3.7538,266.4,4641046
1/8/2006,3.747,266.88,4902245
1/9/2006,3.739,267.45,3885593
1/10/2006,3.7383,267.5,4596527
1/11/2006,3.7366,267.62,4191644
1/12/2006,3.6966,270.52,4383309
1/13/2006,3.7227,268.62,4917281
1/14/2006,3.7236,268.56,4625335
1/15/2006,3.7313,268,4919546
1/16/2006,3.7044,269.95,4134859
1/17/2006,3.6947,270.66,4779558
1/18/2006,3.6598,273.24,4416943
1/19/2006,3.6348,275.12,5237572
1/20/2006,3.6196,276.27,5519685
1/21/2006,3.6152,276.61,5045086
1/22/2006,3.6269,275.72,5383917
1/23/2006,3.5887,278.65,5636737
1/24/2006,3.5858,278.88,4186317
1/25/2006,3.5592,280.96,4546075
1/26/2006,3.5638,280.6,4668396
1/27/2006,3.5625,280.7,5631362
1/28/2006,3.5681,280.26,5481223
1/29/2006,3.5736,279.83,4804134
1/30/2006,3.568,280.27,5312148
1/31/2006,3.5408,282.42,5058098
2/1/2006,3.5451,282.08,6051935
2/2/2006,3.5491,281.76,5306286
2/3/2006,3.5611,280.81,7058328
2/4/2006,3.5601,280.89,5747885
2/5/2006,3.561,280.82,6781994
2/6/2006,3.5544,281.34,5361996
2/7/2006,3.5538,281.39,4969731
2/8/2006,3.0732,325.39,5674073
2/9/2006,3.5403,282.46,5648036
2/10/2006,3.5582,281.04,7186873
2/11/2006,3.5736,279.83,7400111
2/12/2006,3.6078,277.18,6638227
2/13/2006,3.5712,280.02,5710197
2/14/2006,3.5889,278.64,5546969
2/15/2006,3.5785,279.45,5049339
2/16/2006,3.605,277.39,5771920
2/17/2006,3.6249,275.87,6944384
2/18/2006,3.6527,273.77,6301548
2/19/2006,3.6747,272.13,6863009
2/20/2006,3.655,273.6,5086615
2/21/2006,3.655,273.6,5790904
2/22/2006,3.6459,274.28,4537243
2/23/2006,3.651,273.9,5448349
2/24/2006,3.6227,276.04,5730876
2/25/2006,3.635,275.1,6325890
2/26/2006,3.6057,277.34,6538795
2/27/2006,3.5982,277.92,6023927
2/28/2006,3.589,278.63,5817919
3/1/2006,3.5948,278.18,6069140
3/2/2006,3.5863,278.84,6236089
3/3/2006,3.5904,278.52,7592557
3/4/2006,3.5969,278.02,6747442
3/5/2006,3.577,279.56,6625971
3/6/2006,3.5643,280.56,6128286
3/7/2006,3.5638,280.6,5103646
3/8/2006,3.5587,281,5336020

Computers have come down in price by more than 100% over the past year. They seem to do being quite well though.

Money speculators are left holding the bag.....live with it. If this was expected, then they should have sold during the peak periods.

Good economics does not compensate for bad judgement.

There is no free lunch.

January 1-31 (31 days): Averaged 272.80 lindens per US$1. Total Volume: 147mil.
Feb 1-Mar3 (31 days): Averaged 279.61 lindens per US$1. Total Volume: 187mil.

Comparing January to February:

The volume of lindens traded increased 20%.
Yet the buying power of the US dollar over the Linden only increased 2.5%.

If we had a problem here I would expect the increased availablity of Lindens and competition for sales to drive the price of Linden's down by about 20% as well.
It just didn't happen.

It's far to early to be certain of anything yet in my opinion.
The wolf you keep yelling about might just be a bear. It sounds like (a) bull though.

There is no reason for exchange rate to vary linearly with trade volume. Especially not with a 1-to-1 correspondance. In fact, you can calibrate a model using the data provided and show quite easily that the average rate is dropping by around 1.5% per week.

Weedy, why do you have to be so sexy. I don't think
I'm ever going to say a negative thing about you.. Ever..

Now lets get together for some Tea...Drop me an IM.

Long Term Show's You The "Trend".
Short Term is just Static. That is basic Econ 101.

Time to kick the deadweight. lets ban all financial analysts like reserve

Just because you don't understand something, doesn't make it worthless...

I believe Jonas has turned into a Fascist now. Attempting to
ban opposition so only his point of view remains.

Wow Jonas, I never would have guessed.

Ricky, I'm talking about reserve, not economic..and not understanding him is a -good- thing.

I'm just trying to get rid of people who want to rob my of the stipend I paid for reserve..

Jonas, you need to get off your knees, its not becoming of a Gentleman.

I'm on my feet Reserve..dont know what youre getting att..but while your down there do what your economic plans do..

What specifically are you suggesting that he/she do?

I think I'll leave that up to his imagination. Wouldn't be kosher to suggest naughty thigns on here.

I personally would insert 'look stupid' usually.

I don't understand Jonas, is that a San Francisco thing?

The city of San Fransisco is beautiful. Your plan is not. Don't compare them.