Long Term chart of linden vs. dollar

I remember seeing links from the GOM forum to a chart of linden vs. the dollar. Does anyone know what the link to this might be? I can't seem to find it using all my google tricks.

Well, our forums are now closed, but the first post in this thread (which details a mathematical analysis of exchange rate trends over a couple of years of data I performed back inthe fall) has a pretty good graph attached to it.

As an aside, I could probably scrape our database and post info here. Would there be any interest at all in that?

Yes.

coco

Yes! Post it! Send data!

Yeah, the actual numbers would be awesome, Ricky!

Absolutely!

Cheers,
Lawrence

I should add that I'm hoping to get some data feeds going in the next month so that you all can take a closer look at the LindeX. It would be great to have similar numbers from GOM.

Cheers,
Lawrence

Ask, and ye shall receive.

The attached file is a .csv of the volume-weighted average price in both GOM-format US$/L$1k and Lindex-format L$/US$. The dates range from a couple of days after the block-size changeover (you old-timers will recall we used to sell in lots of L$250) up to the day we closed.

A quick eyeball of the data suggests the friction added by Lindex having only a "buy now" market has made the rate of decline to the long-term average (estimated through efficient-market arguments) roughly equivalent to that of the double-market GOM in the pre-partial fill days. If you graph the data in your favourite plotting package, you will be able to see the clear break in the speed of decline when partial filling was introduced.

Once Lawrence gets the historical data access up and running, I'll probably do a more complete analysis. Now that a few months of trading have passed, I'll be better able to calibrate the jump-diffusion model.

Numbers.. So many numbers..

And, just because I'm a sucker for data...

Here's the rest of it. From January 1st, 2004 up to closing day. This data spans the entire lifetime of the L$, from (nearly) the first day or trading, through to the huge price spike back in the summer of 2004 as a result of the land rush, and on to the decline as the market became more liquid.

As a point of interest, on January 1st, there were a whopping 10 (old-size) blocks (for a total of L$2,500) sold through us. On the most active day of trading (the day we announced we were closing), that number was up to L$8,685,000. Our average rate of increase throughout that time was consistently in the neighbourhood of 300% p.a.

Well, enjoy!

So then, what's the analysis for fiscal year '06?.. I know this is past GOM's standing, but what will happen to the market as our population rises?

In the mid-long term, I predict a continued decline in the rate to at least the L$300/US$ unless something significant happens (e.g. eliminating stipends). Once instant sells are implemented in Lindex, the rate of decline should speed up.

I personally have my doubts that the L$ will strengthen back to its previous levels (historical high of L$170/US$ or $5.85/L$1,000) without a severe move by LL to change the structure of the economy, or a real whiz-bang of a must-have item (a la snow sims). Only time will tell, but I think those days are probably past (much like the time of 15%-18% prime lending rate in the early '80s).

Here's similar LindeX data in a similar format.

Cheers,
Lawrence

For those of us data-challenged scriveners, could someone provide a link to a graphical display of this data in a X-Y graph format?

Here's a quick chart of the data I threw together in Excel.

A chart like this is very valuable when considering the perennial "pump and dump" posters that say "The Linden is CRASHING, SELL NOW" or "The Linden is SOARING, BUY NOW."

This chart makes pretty clear to me that while there are some transient bumps in the road, the Linden market is reasonably stable within a predictable trading range thay may roughly approximate the transaction costs of exchange.

And just in case anyone is interested, SL Exchange provides CSV data for whichever chart you decide to view.

http://www.slexchange.com/modules.php?name=Currency&file=charts

Market data! I'm swooning

Any chance you could post an updated version? There's been a lot of activity in the past few weeks, and I'd love to be able to incorporate that into my stats.

Thanks!

Here's more recent data.

Cheers,
Lawrence

Super. Thanks!

i remember buying lindens for more like 250/1 and i'm not that old. today they'e going for 280. that's pretty significant when you start talking about 10s of thousands of lindens.

The max movement of the L$ market (including both LindeX and GOM) is something like 20%, with typical stability over a month or so that is far smaller. This is similar to 2005 fluctuations in world economies like the US$ versus the Japanese Yen (17%).

I actually think it is amazing that our economy has been so stable, considering the vastly smaller volume and youth of SL.

For more graphs on comparative currency exchange fluctuations, check out:

http://www.iccfx.com/history.php3

Philip, that surely is true, but we are currently witnessing a de-valuation of the Linden$ at a rather interesting rate: from 252 to 280 in less than 90 days, from 270 to 280 in less than 10 days.

Most effects have a reason, a cause. The only time something like this has happened before, was, when GOM was closing down. That something drastic would happen at such a moment seems understandable. I am wondering what is the reason this time.

I agree that fluctuations in this scale are happening in First Life, too. But when they happen this fast, there is often some discussion and then action by the involved Governments or the Federal Reserve Banks (or equivalent institutions in other countries).

And when those fluctuations are within normal ranges, the wise decision often is to "let it float" rather than trying to fight market forces.

A large block of sims has been put on the market. If I were one of those buying those big blocks at US$1200 or so each, for which I have to pay dollars, and had a store of several million Lindens, I'd be selling those Lindens for dollars. That selling imbalance is likely to depress the value of the Linden temporarily.

Once that selling pressure lifts, the value of the Linden is likely to stabilize and start to rise again, reverting to mean.

At which point the "pump and dump" yakkers will start trumpeting "Linden is soaring! Buy now before it peaks!!!!" The cheap Lindens will attract ordinary consumers like me looking for an opportunity to pick up a few thousand Lindens at a discounted price, and it will rise again.