SL Development Roadmap

In the past few days, the developers of both World of Warcraft and Everquest 2 have released detailed information on upcoming changes - not just in the next patch, but a roadmap of sorts of where they are taking their respective games. As a fan of both games, especially WoW, I find this type of thing very useful. It gives a sense of moving toward something, and it is nice to see that both companies have a clear vision of how they want to continue to improve on two games that arguably don't need much improvement (ok, EQ2 does). This type of roadmap also helps to build anticipation of new features and keep excitement levels high about the games.

As I was reading through them, I realized that we have sort of lost this with Second Life lately. While we know for the most part what is coming in 1.7 (though the missing HTML and Havok at this late stage is still disconcerting), and we know a new rendering engine is coming sometime next year, it's all very vague. Development seems very stagnant (it took all of the beta releases, and now 7 major point releases to get multi-item drag). Earlier releases of SL, especially 1.1-1.4, had a great forward momentum and excitement going for them. That is lacking right now, and I think we need it back. I hope LL will consider providing a clear roadmap of where they are taking SL in more than just the immediate future.

Obviously, they need to keep some things under wraps, but I would think if the fiercely competitive Warcraft and EQ2 can talk about upcoming features, certainly SL with no real competition, can. Also, the argument of "well, SL is not a game" does not apply here. It is not about being a game or not being a game. Even as a platform, having a clear idea of what is ahead helps us to remain focused and excited about what is to come, especially with the snail's pace of development over the past year.

Take a look at these two roadmaps and you will see what I am referring to - we have never really had something like this for SL:

World of Warcraft Battleplan, Vol 2

Everquest II Producer's Letter - Sept. 2005

I look forward to this request being completely ignored.

Considering they can't even follow their own internal roadmaps, I don't see what the point of publishing them would do, except piss more people off.

Hi, hello, calling Havok 2.... version 1.1 called, they want their point release back.

Seriously, it's been in development longer than SL has been live... it's not THAT big of an upgrade, especially considering it's not going to add any more features.

Bah.

We get what we get. I just work here.

Lf

Yes, the way that Havok 2 has been shoved off over and over again is maddening, with no great explanation from LL. I noticed that Havok is currently at version 3 - so they will hopefully get version 2 integrated just in time for version 4 or 5 of Havok Remember when it was going to be a patch of 1.3 and then 1.4?

Let's see.... 50 employees, not enough money, and no sign of capital on the horizon.

I'd say this is exactly what we should expect.

Then again, I'd also say the best way to avoid disappointment is not to have expectations.

You know, just counting the rough number of private sims floating about, LLab is making $600,000 a year, just in private island tier.

The 800 or so (or more? I keep losing count) mainland sims, which make more money for linden labs (less tier discount), are raking in perhaps 4 times that amount.

Actually, let's make some base assumptions.

800 sims.

Each user holds, as a median, about $25 worth of tier on each sim (about 4096 meters).

That's enough for 16 people in a sim to own land, roughly, on average.

25 * 16 = $400 per sim.

$400 * 800 sims = $320,000 per month = $3,840,000 yearly revenue just on the mainland sims.

Ish.

I could be wrong, I'm wrong alot.

Regardless, any company pulling in $4 million + a year 2 years after its product launch is something that isn't going to go under any time soon... too much potential for its investors to drop like a hot potato.


I have faith in Linden Lab, I just wish they'd fricking implement the occasional useful feature within a reasonable timeframe.

LF

You are very close, they said they are making $400K on sim rents per month alone. Add that to that about 200K premium account fees, so they are making about 6-7 million a year. Plus last year they got 8 million in fresh capital. Even if they are losing 2-3 million a year they have enough cash at this level for at least another 2-3 years, assuming SL population remains exactly same for the next two years. So I don't see how Lindens are in need of capital.

Also 50 people is pretty good size for a development like this. Dark age of camelot for example had about 30 people developing their game for several years. Considering, majority of content is created by players here, this is a very good sized company.

Isn't it also hard to predict what users will create, in a user created world?

It is not about them predicting what we are going to create. It is about providing a clear technology roadmap for upcoming versions of SL - what new features and improvements are coming, planned changes to existing features, and critical bugs that are being focused on.

With regard to these other Virtual Worlds, I am often amazed at how they are unable to see their site through Newbie eyes.

I just looked at the WoW site for 10 mins, hunting around to find how to join. Now wouldn't you think that important to have very clear ?

I found out there is a Mac client (good). That they use a p2p downloader called blizzard. But can I find out where you get the damn game from ?

Finally I track down "retailers" and "online". Isn't their site online for heavens sake ?
I finally deduce, ie guess (its stated nowhere that I saw) that they do not make it available as a download, but that you have to purchase physical disks. Quite big is it ? Doesnt matter, with a good p2p downloader it should be feasible.

But no. Thats fine. But why in heavens name don't they have the brain to say it clearly. It's probably there, but I thought ten minutes digging was enough.

I hope its clear on the SL website. Praps I'd better pretend to be a noob, and go check.

Apparently to 4 million people who bought Wow finding it was not an issue In fact I remember line of hundreds of people in front of an Ebgames store the day it was out. Blizzard really didn't need any advertisement it was already anticipated by millions of fans. However, that is not the case with SL, I doubt even 1% of Wow players have heard of it.

You are starting to see more and more offer their client for purchase as a digital download. I bought EQ2 and its new expansion digitally - I am a huge fan of Direct2Drive.com . It has always struck me as stupid to have to pay for a game that is useless without the service - the client should be provided with the service. At a minimum, all online only games should let you purchase and download them.

Blizzard managed to have the beta fully downloadable, so it is feasible ever for multi-gig games. I just downloaded 2 gig beta of City of Villains, and also have the digital download version of Lineage 2 (also around 2 gigs). City of Heroes is purchaseable as a digital download, as is Anarchy Online, EVE, and many other games. Even the massive Auto Assault, which clocked in at nearly 4 gigs, is downloadable in beta - time will tell if it will be downloadable for purchase.

I am hoping that Blizzard at least makes the expansion downloadable. In SL's case, it really doesn't apply - I can't see any way they could charge for the client. It would be interesting to see it distributed as a retail package though.

I think the main overlapping explaination for the delay of Havok 2 is because a lot of things are affected by physical objects and physics within Second Life. They are getting the existing bugs flushed out in order to get Havok 2 in place with less negative impact afterwards. Just my guess though.

I think it would be great to see a development roadmap as well. Possibly this could be brought up in the Philip & Robin discussion this Monday?

It definitely is a large undertaking - but it seems that the longer they push it off, the more complex of a task it becomes. Havok 2 has literally been promised as just over the horizon since beta in 2003. It feels like vaporware at this point - it will definitely be nice to finally get a new physics engine, whatever version it happens to be.

<geek>They are waiting to see how the Duke Nukem Forever team implements Havok 2 before they go through with it for SL.</geek>

I would like to second this motion. No matter how fast or slow the development is, developers who are investing more than a little tinkering around in SL need this kind of roadmap - with an acceptable degree of accuracy.

This would not only lessen the chance of developments which are rendered disfunctional or obsolete in coming versions. It could motivate developers and teams to produce more creative content and applications for this platform (it is one, at list LL stated it as such).

See also /130/fd/59478/1.html

On the side of income, I have speculated wildly on how much money LL is doing, and my last calculations have been posted here (scroll down to the end of page 2 ).

I can't possible understand how LL is making US$ 400K from islands and an additional US$200K from the rest. But if that's true, it means there are twice as many islands as mainland grid sims And that they are all invisible. Ah well. I can only calculate based upon what I can see on the map

BTW, my numbers are wrong on the salary side. In the mean time, I was told on how much a Liaison earns on average, but I can't tell you, or someone would kill me But the salary figures on my numbers must be adjusted upwards quite a bit (note that Liaisons are the fastest-growing group of employees at LL)

On the side of the roadmap... well... the last time I gathered all bits and pieces from several Town Hall meetings and posts by the Lindens on the forums was in February, so this information is most likely completely outdated. I've even heard that there isn't going to be a "1.8" any more - it'll jump straight into 2.0. And, of course, there is no way I can place things like Havok 2 or the Linux version. I guess both will be "myths" of SL, in the sense that SL started by having them announced "any time real soon now" and all generations of new users heard that myth...

But I fully agree that it's time for another of Cory's TH meetings on the timeline/roadplan for Second Life

Don't EVEN get me started
Havok 2? When it's ready?
BAH!

Silly idea: Put SL client CDs (the tiny chopped ones) for free on various game shop's counters etc'? People will grab a CD out of curiosity. And with the free account thing, I think most people will give it a go - more then inbound net traffic.

Hell, it worked for There.

Gwyneth, thanks a billion for the link to your post on the MMORPG forum. It did not catch my attention so far and I think it is a very valuable calculation. But ...Linden Lab is not a publicly listed company, so some ambigious propaganda is allowed, I guess If you look at the statistics Philip is publishing himself, earnings "around US$ 400K" (overall) are realistic, I guess. And furthermore, I would like to question soem deatails of your calculation on the MMORPG forum. As you said yourself your assumptions on the payroll are a little on the very low side I would be very surprised if LL is already making a monthly profit (not even in the EBITDA), very surprised.

Hmmm ... my point would be that this type of communicating to the "developers community" actually is part of the problem. Town halls are nice to get some (often "funny" answers to pressing questions. But they are no substitute for a professionally done - and regularily maintained - development roadmap.

Piecing together vital information like this from transcripts, forum postings and hearsay is no way to lay down the foundation for a professional development and business platform (and LL is tooting Second Life as such a platform again and again).

Well, granted that is true. Maybe they had not thought of the idea? Or did not quite know the best way to implement it? As LL is *much* smaller than Blizzard or Sony, so I'm also sure simple man power could have something to do with it. As well as not being "game" developers, but rather "platform" developers. So their approach is a bit different. I suppose it would not hurt to put a request like this in the features feedback forum though!

Actually this line of thought works again LL. All they have to do is keep the platform updated and stable. They are lagging far behind in this. When Sony and Blizzard make game updates it is far more complicated because not only are they working on technical issues, they are also working on storylines, character updates and issues etc. LL doesn't provide anything for us but a platform, they do not recreate compelling content, the members do. The things they have added like video seem like novelty items and don't do a tremendous amount to really add anything to SL. The SL of today seems just about the same as the SL of this time last year, which sucks.

I agree - that is more than anything what has driven me away from SL in a lot of ways. It is languishing right now, and has been, well, since version 1.5 came out. It seems that the forward momentum of SL stopped with that release, and has not recovered. That makes me sad, because there have been features added that have fundamentally changed SL (animations, streaming audio), but the last time it really felt exciting and forward moving was in mid 2004. That is way too long in normal time, let alone Internet time. I know much of the development effort has been spent on under the hood improvements. That is all well and good, and very needed, but again, not an either/or thing. Innovation and new features are needed to continue to drive SL forward.

I don't know. Maybe I am living in a different Second World than you Cris. I just don't see how anything has stagnated (or "languished" as you put it). I played WoW for about 4 months, got to level 57, and all my old guild friends (from my 5 years in EQ) finally quit due to how boring the end game is. And to me that is normal for a game. But with SL, I have seen so many changes happen, so much evolving in my two years here. I am still amazed daily at all the new creations and the tools and new developments. I don't think I'll grow bored with SL for many, many years. I did take a break, but it was not because of SL directly. And now I find it nerve racking that I cannot be in world even more than I am already.

So, I guess we will just disagree on this one.

I would just like to voice my agreement with this post. As somebody who has spent a good deal of time in at least a half-dozen online worlds - the differences between SL and "games" like WoW notwithstanding - I too have been very surprised by the slow pace of development and change here.

While I do think that Philip and his team do an extraordinary job communicating and interacting with the community and seem genuinely open to suggestions and criticisms (can you imagine the CEO of Blizzard of SOE holding a town-hall to meet with players in game?) it would be nice if we could get some info on the direction of development.

If we can't actually have the new features, can we at least hear what you are working on?