Million user mark by 2007?

Some more rough calculations... those diabolical lindens always leave out numbers.

Philip's stated goal was "1 million users by 2007", a year or so ago.

Okay, so we have 49,000 users now.

Since the free account bonanza, we've been getting around 1000 users a day (ish).

1,000,000-49,000 = 951,000 users to go.

951,000 users divided by 1000 users a day = 951 days.

951 / 365 days a year = 2.6 years.

It's the end of 2005 now... so by 2007 we should be just shy of a million users, at the current growth curve.

Of course, SL's growth curve has yet to actually dampen at any point (before 1.2 it was 10's of users a day, then it was 100's of users a day, now it's 1000's...), so there's a fair chance we'll actually hit 1,000,000 users.

Interesting, eh?

Rat bastards.

LF

Dude there aren't even a million people on the internet.

Thats assuming it stays at 1000 a day. By your own guesstimations that number should also rise. I predict it'll happen pre 2007 based on the idea that a friend tells two friends who tell two friends who tell two friends.

Lineage claims to have 4 million active subscribers. Of course it helps to have all of Korea playing.

I think it will all depend on their ability to solve some of the technical issues within the next year. If the platform and performance really improves, I can see it taking off.

Well what about alts? I personally don't think any alt accounts should be included in the figures. It would be interesting to know how many PEOPLE actually are active on SL, not including alts. But I guess it depends on what is considered a 'user'.

Ditto this.

coco

Not only are alt accounts counted (as they are on every game), but also everybody who was ever a basic member for five minutes, right?

But so what. The bigger the numbers, the better - for any game. The bigger the numbers, the better it looks to investors. The bigger the numbers, the more press the game gets. And, best for us, the bigger the numbers, the more real and active users come.

coco

That's assuming that the derivative of the graph of the population is a y = 1000, where y = rate of change per day.

(in other words, you assume linnear growth rate, when it's not - it's exponential)

LL has stated 20% growth a month. Using this rough figure:

Let's assume 50,000 by October.

50,000
x 1.2 = 60,000
x 1.2 = 72,000
x 1.2 = 86,400
x 1.2 = 103,680 -- by March 2006 - SL Hits 100,000
x 1.2 = 124,416
x 1.2 = 149,299
x 1.2 = 179,159
x 1.2 = 214,990 -- by July 2006 - SL hits 200,000
x 1.2 = 257,989
x 1.2 = 309,586
x 1.2 = 371,504
x 1.2 = 445,805
x 1.2 = 534,996 -- by December 2005 - SL hits half a million
x 1.2 = 641,949
x 1.2 = 770,351
x 1.2 = 924,421
x 1.2 = 1,109,305 -- by April 2006, SL hits a million.

Actually, at the current growth rate, SL will have on January 1, 2007:
5,723,772 "active" users.

Philip's statement is assuming SL's growth rate *slows*.

Of course, I dunno. I think users is going to be dependant highly on features and content. If you get some big-ticket games, we can look at a huge influx. When we get HTML, that's another huge possibility for new users.

Plus we'll reach a saturation point of "Metaverse Lovers" - and our demographics for new users will shift more toward consumers and casual surfers.

Then again, as content expands people will have more reason to surf in more often, and so a lot of people who might have tried and passed on SL will now stay because it's free and there's lots of content.

So it's really tough to predict, but I think a million by 2007 is a safe bet.

1 million users or wouldn't it be a little more honest to call us "customers" or "potential marketing focus groups." 1 million...don't think so after all I realy don't see ppl paying out good money to be marketed to nor do i see them paying out good money to entertain others I do however see most ppl moving on to something shall we say "entertaining"

dont mind me I just have his huge chip on my shoulder after the recent bone head moves by LL to distroy their own company. Duh.

Cat

Hi Hiro, where did you get this number. If I look at the officially posted ones its more in the line of 10%/month - which is quite impressive.

Asssuming they can solve the stability and scaleability problems that currently plague SL, and assuming they can keep it at this rate, LL would need some 34 month to push SL from 40,000 AVs (with lots of alts) to 1,000,000.

I don't think this is impossible. But the focus really of LL really has to be on scaleability and marketing to achieve that - and not on constantly adding exciting new features

Turn your prognosticating into L$

</shameless plug>

No. If that were the case, SL would have about 180,000 members (as counting the number of accounts in the forums).

The current mark on the website is the amount of active users within the past 30 days. That means anyone that's logged in the last month.

LF

OK I get it. Well, then, that is TERRIFIC!

But - they can't say those whole 180,000 have gone, either, cause they haven't actually canceled their accounts. Therefore there are actually 180,000 accounts.

coco

This reminds me of my old boss when he showed me his marketing plan. By a similar extrapolation of the growth rate it had us eventually pulling in $65 Billion a year in ad revenue. I tried to break it to him gently that our industry wasn't collectively worth that much.

I'm not so confident SL will ever break one million active (past 30 days) accounts. Though it undeniably rules, it's a niche market without universal appeal. I'm talking about the current SL; Third Life or whatever will probably enable the user-led development of things as yet unimagined which will give it universal appeal. I'll put my initials next to "1 million active users by 2012".

In the time span between now and then, WoW could have been developed twice over, and that is 3 million customers.

I think you're far, far underestimating the power of the dark si--- Second Life.

That's if we're all still here by 2012 .

What is "the current SL?" Both the platform and content are under constant revision with an eye toward expanding the user base and functionality. The more or less constant rate of growth allows LL to constantly adapt the platform to new users' needs. I expect to see at least 1 million users in SL's future.

There will probably be somewhat less churn (that is, people who come here and then decide to leave) when the 2.0 renderer comes out. The current graphics engine is disappointing to a lot of people who come here with powerful machines and expect to get the same framerate they get in (for example) Half-Life 2. There are a lot of other factors as well, such as the ability of people to find things to do with their time in SL, availability of money, availability of content they find interesting, and so on.

If you plot the userbase on a chart, it won't be a straight line or an even curve. It will have lots of bumps in it, the slope and velocity will tend to be different at different times, there may be some seasonality involved, etc. Hard to just say "we'll have x number of users at this time." It might be better to use weighted moving average than to throw out a figure like "x percent/month."

Are we talking main grid users?

Between releasing the software as private servers and islands with their own sign up schemes, clients connecting to a SL server could surpass 1 million fairly quickly.

I actually find the number of servers to be more interesting. Fairly soon (next couple of months), LL will have more servers than Sony Online.

However WoW has more mainstream appeal, an established rabid fanbase, and last but not least serious advertising.

Think of it like EQ and EQ2. Both were revised, expanded, patched, and developed during their effective lifespans. But EQ2, while similar, was a separate product. You can't log into EQ and by travelling end up in EQ2.

That's more or less what I mean by "the current SL". Yes, it continues to develop but eventually you hit the point of diminishing returns, cut it free, and create Second Life 2 or Third Life or whatever comes next. Maybe the original stays around, maybe it doesn't. But something new and separate comes into existence.*

I stand by my estimate, while acknowledging that it's basically a guess.


*I don't mean to sound condescending, I just don't know the single software development term for what I mean. "Version" doesn't work because SL goes through several versions a month while remaining essentially the same product.

My calculations are mine, and you can't have them, I only have the one copy, but I will share my results, which are as follows:

The million customer point will not be as far off as some of the predictions in this thread indicate; in fact, it will occur tomorrow at 2:30 o'clock Pacific Time, shortly after I return to work following a late lunch, which means I will miss the peak. Because of the unusual system of exponential growth factors in effect, the userbase will stay about normal till 2:15, with a massive 997,000 or so people joining the in the fifteen minutes before the peak. At peak customer base time, they will be over 900,000 people in the welcome area with boxes on their heads; the other 90,000 or so will be the more technically savvy new users, who will be picking off these easy targets with hand of satan or some such other weapon, flying carefull above the 15 meter no script limit.

Nearly all the box wearers will immediately cancel their memberships, cause what fun can it be flying through the air just to have to restart the game and return to that ingnominious state within a few minutes?

The new attackers will be removed with the same dispatch as Dummy and Dildo LiNd3n were.

Membership will be back to normal by 3:30 Pacific Time, when I get off work. People will try to tell me about he fantastic events of the day, but I will know not to believe a wild story like that.

A word to the wise: or should it be a word from the wise? - well whatever, a word, more accurately, several words strung together in something vaguely resembling a pattern or meaningful sequence, at least superficially: avoid logging in during the vast membership increase, best results will be obtained if all logins could be scheduled around the peak login time, or something equally confusing.

I think it should be noted that since LL announced that sl was not a game I have personaly heard conversations from former players on the subject in other online games. They also think its a damn shame, BUT LL decision to make. Hey what ever its their business. The point being it was why they are no longer "playing" SL. Which I not only also understand but I too have found entertainment else where. besides the new Sims2 expansion pack came out today which is a riot btw. Now if the Sims 2 ever went online (not ot compair it to the failed tso of course) it would pretty much wipe out much of this player base. Not everyone is keen to market their goods, services or bodies in SL. Some ppl just want to have fun. LOL but what the hell do I know let it ride.

Cat

My calculations are mine, and you can't have them, I only have the one copy, but I will share my results, which are as follows:

The million customer point will not be as far off as some of the predictions in this thread indicate; in fact, it will occur tomorrow at 2:30 o'clock Pacific Time, shortly after I return to work following a late lunch, which means I will miss the peak. Because of the unusual system of exponential growth factors in effect, the userbase will stay about normal till 2:15, with a massive 997,000 or so people joining the in the fifteen minutes before the peak. At peak customer base time, they will be over 900,000 people in the welcome area with boxes on their heads; the other 90,000 or so will be the more technically savvy new users, who will be picking off these easy targets with hand of satan or some such other weapons, sold to them at vast markup by those currently know as noobs, midbies, oldtimers, beta members, early beta members, charter members, alpha members, and a few of the more adventurous Linden alts, flying carefully above the 15 meter no script limit.

Nearly all the box wearers will immediately cancel their memberships, cause what fun can it be flying through the air just to have to restart the game and return to that ingnominious state within a few minutes?

The new attackers will be removed with the same dispatch as Dummy and Dildo LiNd3n were.

Membership will be back to normal by 3:30 Pacific Time, when I get off work. People will try to tell me about the fantastic events of the day, but I will know not to believe a wild story like that.

A word to the wise: or should it be a word from the wise? - well whatever, a word, more accurately, several words strung together in something vaguely resembling a pattern or meaningful sequence, at least superficially: avoid logging in during the vast membership increase, best results will be obtained if all logins could be scheduled around the peak login time, or something equally confusing.

SL Birthdays

I have had this page bookmarked for a long time, is it missing about 800 new residents a day? Where is the 1000 per day number coming from?

out of thin air but it looks good on paper