I have felt for some time that SL is "not just a product in transition, it is a transitional product."
Brilliantly stated, Aldo.
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The end of Second Life. |
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Chip Midnight
ate my baby!
Join date: 1 May 2003
Posts: 10,231
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06-24-2006 09:49
I have felt for some time that SL is "not just a product in transition, it is a transitional product." Brilliantly stated, Aldo. _____________________
My other hobby: www.live365.com/stations/chip_midnight |
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Einsman Schlegel
Disenchanted Fool
Join date: 11 Jun 2003
Posts: 1,461
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06-24-2006 09:49
I don't know why or how anyone could think that Second Life could be a web platform, given the fact that we don't even have HTML on a PRIM YET. I think its a fact that they're making a last ditch effort in order to increase the 'customer' database with false implications. If I were an investor I'd like to look into the nooks and crannies of a company and how they work. To me, SL is a forgary and a fraud.
Second Life will now go the ways of what Active Worlds has become. A giant wasteland. With nobody in it. So, be at peace, knowing the view of Second Life has failed. If they truely want us to be collaborative, they'd give us the tools so we can create the tools that are on 'as a needed basis' instead of us having to wait for them to push it out. In other words, Open Source. |
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Chip Midnight
ate my baby!
Join date: 1 May 2003
Posts: 10,231
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06-24-2006 09:53
And yet, Eins, for some odd reason you're still here. SL is a fraud and a complete failure and that's why I still log into it every day and have for the past three years.
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My other hobby: www.live365.com/stations/chip_midnight |
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Osprey Therian
I want capslocklock
Join date: 6 Jul 2004
Posts: 5,049
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06-24-2006 10:18
It's exciting, I think. I am happy to follow the visionaries.
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Ordinal Malaprop
really very ordinary
Join date: 9 Sep 2005
Posts: 4,607
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06-24-2006 10:48
You don't want to precisely follow visionaries - you never know quite what their vision is (or whether they have one that makes sense at all). I prefer "hanging around with people doing interesting stuff, seeing what they're doing, and using that to (hopefully) do my own interesting stuff".
I honestly do not get the impression that SL is going to be sold off as a place for VR corporate conferences and showcase ad builds, though perhaps there'll be more of them - all the better for the escort business - because of the overwhelming sense of idealism that comes from Lindens whenever you talk to them or whenever they write. If LL went hardcore corporate I think most of them would quit, and so would a lot of the residents, and bang, all of the advantages that SL has over other systems would vanish. I've spent a lot of time in corporate environments and I just don't get the feel here. Now, that concentrated idealism might sometimes result in apparently mayfly development attention spans and well-meaning changes that cause complete chaos, but it's a hard balance to get right, and I'd rather have them get it wrong sometimes than turn into There or something. I've not talked to Philip, clearly, but I certainly don't see that blog entry as being an abandonment of anything. It's when he seems bored that you should start worrying. |
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Osprey Therian
I want capslocklock
Join date: 6 Jul 2004
Posts: 5,049
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06-24-2006 11:30
You don't want to precisely follow visionaries I didn't say CHAIN MYSELF to them. In the virtual worlds I've been in it has been most interesting when the visionaries have been in charge. Once they leave, for whatever reason, the suits take over and it becomes... uninteresting. A giant project like this requires the vision and dynamism of a very special person. I'd never be able to do something like this on my own, of course - but I'm glad to have the chance to be a part of it in a small way. _____________________
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Pham Neutra
Registered User
Join date: 25 Jan 2005
Posts: 478
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06-24-2006 12:03
I've not talked to Philip, clearly, but I certainly don't see that blog entry as being an abandonment of anything. It's when he seems bored that you should start worrying. Seconded. |
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Briana Dawson
Attach to Mouth
Join date: 23 Sep 2003
Posts: 5,855
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06-24-2006 12:35
It was pretty clear in yesterday's speech from Philip that his goal is to turn SL into an open source/open standards/open grid kind of 3D web platform with millions of concurrent users. Companies would hosts sims, just like they host web servers now. The whole SL protocol will be provided as an open source Web service or similar. The content and access to that content will be controlled by the content providers themselves. To me, this seems like the end of SL as a "game". SL is, and probably never will be, profitable as a MMORPG. With a max of 7000 concurrent users, the real population of active users is probably more like 50000. The number of paying premium accounts is probably much lower. The rest of the 250000 accounts being dead accounts and alts. Consider the investment in hardware required for only 50000 and compare with the other MMORPGs around. There is no way SL will be profitable soon. I think Philip has realized that SL is a dead end as a game and this is why he wants to focus on developing the technology and aim for being acquired by Cisco or Google or some other network provider. He no longer beleives on making a profit from subscribers, but making a profit by selling off the technology to a big name. Increasing the account numbers can only help in this. It is incredibly ambituous, but this is not the first attempt to create a 3D web platform. All previous attempts have failed, for one main reason: it requires a lot of resources (hardware, bandwidth, software download) for very little added value. Visiting a website in 3D is actually much slower and more difficult to navigate than 2D HTML. Imagine a 3D iTunes or Amazon. You would have to walk around it like a department store, when the 2D version provides everything by just clicking or typing a word in the search bar. The level of detail provided is just not enough for major clothing brands or brands like IKEA or Walmart to use SL as a showcase. This has been tried before, and it has always failed. And then, will IKEA or Walmart accept the idea of people running around their 3D shops exposing prim genitals or with guns blazing or insulting customers? I hope I'm wrong, but it looks like SL is going to slowly shift from supporting players to supporting commercial content providers. For me this means the end of SL as we know it. I disagree with your entire post. First, SL is not a game and I can't recall LL ever calling it such. Second, SL is not at a dead end as a game because again, it is not a game. Finally, I can imagine a 3D iTunes in SL. It would be wonderful, sort of like SL back in 2003/early 2004 when Frankie Beach and Jellin Pico had their music stores. It would not be a slow experience like walking around a department store. We have a "3rd eye" in SL for a reason and if you are walking around stores instead of using your 3rd eye (camera angles) then that slow experience is on you. Briana Dawson _____________________
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Briana Dawson
Attach to Mouth
Join date: 23 Sep 2003
Posts: 5,855
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06-24-2006 12:48
This stupid 'vision' is why SL is failing. It is entirely unrealistic, totally unnecessary, and will never happen because the technology is not available, neither is the need. The over emphasis on the commercialism of SL is why we have so many problems, and why so many people get bored and leave (hence the vast turnover of accounts but hardly any increase in in-world numbers). Unless you have some way of making money, there's very little left to do, especially if you don't like clubbing. Yet without 'consumers', very few enterprises in SL will succeed. You can't sell anything if you have nobody around to buy it. The reason so much of the grid is underdeveloped and an ugly mess? Emphasis on commercialism instead of creativity. The reason the value of the L$ crashed? Emphasis on commercialism instead of creativity. The reason people don't stay? Emphasis on commercialism instead of creativity. The reason people don't bother to pay to go premium? Emphasis on commercialism instead of creativity. The reason that SL is not profitable? Emphasis on commercialism instead of creativity. There has to be a fundamental shift in the thinking of Linden Labs. The only way I can see that happening is for a new CEO who actually understands the problems that players face, listens to them, and acts on them. Lewis So according to you all of SL's perceived problems are because LL has placed an emphasis on commercialism instead of creativity?? I'd have to disagree. especially with statements like: The reason so much of the grid is underdeveloped and an ugly mess? Emphasis on commercialism instead of creativity. As much as I love SL, it has always had an underdeveloped an ugly mess look in parts of the world. Even when we only had 40 or so sims back in 2003, there were still people complaining about the world looking discombobulated. We had gigantic prim builds in Hawthorne that lasted 6+ months, and horrific primtastic craptastic builds all over. It has nothing to do with commercialism. It has to do with people getting bored and quiting - this has been happening since the beta. The rest of your points are all really just over simplified. SL is a love it or hate it experience, regardless of what aspects of SL that LL is emphasizing. This place rocks...sans the sky is falling complainers Briana Dawson _____________________
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Crissaegrim Clutterbuck
Dancing Martian Warlord
Join date: 9 Apr 2006
Posts: 277
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06-24-2006 15:50
I hope, you were not to surprised Miel. Because this has been Philip's vision for quite some time now - maybe from the day he founden Linden Lab. Glad somebody said this, because certain people have been talking about SL in this way since 2003 - residents, Lindens, and company execs in their notorious "white papers". Is there really any doubt that Second Life is a) a demonstration system for outlining potentials? b) still in (a very long) beta phase - technically, conceptually, and organization-wise? c) based largely on a single, brilliant, non-technical conception: to get people to pay a company to create company product? for demonstrative purposes, of course. |
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Khamon Fate
fategardens.net
Join date: 21 Nov 2003
Posts: 4,177
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06-24-2006 16:45
Hmmm ... All in all I would say "it sounds not very specific" to me, Khamon. ...But Philip is hardly so naive - while talking about "open source, open protocols and standard" - to expect, that all of these "millions of servers" will be owned by or even operated in a LL owned data center. To succeed with this vision, the Metaverse -- or call it web 3.d -- has to be as "open" as the web. I am sure, Phil expects LL to play a large role in this future web but he much to intelligent to expect, to "own" it.This whole place, large as it may now seem, all 2,668 sims of it, will probably be a speck on the map in a few years. I am pretty sure that SL will grow to be comparable in size to the net, and that means a lot of change. It means millions of servers and potentially hundreds of millions of users. Now I will grant you that Philip almost invariably says exactly the opposite of what LL finally do. Is that how I should interpret his statements? _____________________
Visit the Fate Gardens Website @ fategardens.net
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Einsman Schlegel
Disenchanted Fool
Join date: 11 Jun 2003
Posts: 1,461
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06-24-2006 17:21
And yet, Eins, for some odd reason you're still here. SL is a fraud and a complete failure and that's why I still log into it every day and have for the past three years. ![]() I like to rant. Cause ya'll suckers for it. |
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Aldo Stern
wandering madman
Join date: 15 Jan 2005
Posts: 121
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06-24-2006 18:03
Kermit the Frog playing Bob Cratchett, Muppet Christmas Carol ![]() PS. Always been a Muppet fan since I was a kid. I even have a cat called Gonzo. yes...exactly..probably one of the best versions of Christmas Carol--right up there with the Magoo version. (which was pretty darn good metaphor in itself--"the blind man who shall be made to see" ![]() |
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Corvus Drake
Bedroom Spelunker
Join date: 12 Feb 2006
Posts: 1,456
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06-27-2006 11:33
THe sky is falling! The sky is falling!
Wait...SL has more users, the trade amounts on the LindeX keep increasing in overall dollars traded, more and more people get premiums to set up their businesses and then transact through LL to get the USD.... SL is failing WHAT? An IQ test, perhaps, if scoring some of your common hookers, but that's about it. _____________________
I started getting banned from Gorean sims, so now I hang out in a tent called "Fort Awesome".
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Nekokami Dragonfly
猫神
Join date: 29 Aug 2004
Posts: 638
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06-28-2006 05:52
Really only one industry comes to mind. Porn. While I can't deny that this will probably continue to be a profitable industry in SL, I strongly disagree that this is the only industry that can benefit from SL. Last fall I helped facilitate a distance education project in which a professor of International Business and his students planned to use SL as a practical example of another "country," with its own customs, economy, and culture, which they would need to learn about in order to start a business. It was a great idea. The instructor and students were enthusiastic. LL loaned the class land (through their Campus program). Unfortunately, none of the students were able to reliably connect to SL. They had reasonable equipment and bandwidth, but SL sets the technology bar pretty high, and if you don't happen to have the right video card, etc. and aren't comfortable with fiddling with your system until it works, you're not going to get in. (Especially in a compressed 8-week course format.) Still, I hope that at some point the environment will be stable enough for long enough that most folks (with computers) will have systems able to access SL. I think the strongest, most unique feature of SL is actually the communities that form in it, and those communities are strengthened by the capabilities for individual expression and collaborative construction. If we must compare SL to the Web, let's remember that the Web isn't only a giant shopping mall. It's a reference tool, a communication tool, a community building tool, etc. Similarly, if we must compare SL to RL, RL also does not consist only of commercial enterprises. There are also neighborhoods, schools, parks, and town halls. The community aspect of SL is not new, of course -- MU* servers and clients have provided similar capabilities for decades. MU* systems also provided the ability for "players" to create areas in the world, though based on text descriptions (and code), rather than visible geometry. But many people seem to find the visual aspect of SL much easier to relate to than the text-based environments of MU*, and there are ways in which SL is used that have grown and gone beyond MU* systems (flying machines involving physics, for example). Most of all, SL emulates the ability to feel as though you've really "met" someone from a different place, without actually travelling. I recall two summers ago I met a woman who lived 2000 miles from me for the first time in RL. We'd previously met via email, phone, and then on SL. The first thing she said when she met me was, "I recognized you right away-- you look just like you do in Second Life!" And we were already familiar with each others' ideas and attitudes, as well. I think this is the real power of SL -- the ability to minimize distance and help bring people together across this wide world who might otherwise never have a chance to meet. But then, I'm an idealist. You cynics can now go back to your discussion about how the world is ending. neko _____________________
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Johnny Mann
Registered User
Join date: 1 Oct 2005
Posts: 202
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07-11-2006 05:45
WHAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH.
Aww dont cry. Heh, I think SL will be fine. Don't worry your wittle head. |
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Khamon Fate
fategardens.net
Join date: 21 Nov 2003
Posts: 4,177
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07-11-2006 06:11
Finally, I can imagine a 3D iTunes in SL.Briana Dawson I keep telling him he should open a little store. _____________________
Visit the Fate Gardens Website @ fategardens.net
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Jennyfur Peregrine
Whatever
Join date: 24 Dec 2003
Posts: 1,151
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07-11-2006 06:54
This stupid 'vision' is why SL is failing. It is entirely unrealistic, totally unnecessary, and will never happen because the technology is not available, neither is the need. The over emphasis on the commercialism of SL is why we have so many problems, and why so many people get bored and leave (hence the vast turnover of accounts but hardly any increase in in-world numbers). Unless you have some way of making money, there's very little left to do, especially if you don't like clubbing. Yet without 'consumers', very few enterprises in SL will succeed. You can't sell anything if you have nobody around to buy it. The reason so much of the grid is underdeveloped and an ugly mess? Emphasis on commercialism instead of creativity. The reason the value of the L$ crashed? Emphasis on commercialism instead of creativity. The reason people don't stay? Emphasis on commercialism instead of creativity. The reason people don't bother to pay to go premium? Emphasis on commercialism instead of creativity. The reason that SL is not profitable? Emphasis on commercialism instead of creativity. There has to be a fundamental shift in the thinking of Linden Labs. The only way I can see that happening is for a new CEO who actually understands the problems that players face, listens to them, and acts on them. Lewis I suppose by your standards the internet is a stupid failure too since people use it for business and not gaming. BTW, Linden Lab's business model doesn't draw specifically on what Lewis Nerd wants and thinks best for everyone with a fuck everyone else attitude. Maybe if you give them a couple million dollars in venture capital they will take your theories into consideration. _____________________
~Jennyfur~
http://jennyfurperegrine.wordpress.com/ http://slcc2007.wordpress.com/ Deadly Nightshade Design Studio (Indigo 86,61) Jennyfur's Designs on SLBoutique |
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Ingrid Ingersoll
Archived
Join date: 10 Aug 2004
Posts: 4,601
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07-11-2006 07:08
But for many--perhaps the majority--there is no reason why we shouldn't "hang on to the rope and see where this whale takes us--or we can take it." I've never understood the "the end of second life" threads because I feel the same way Aldo does. You can do the same thing now that you did in Second Life 2 years ago. SL will get bigger, it will evolve and change, people will come and go, but that doesn't mean it's coming to an end. _____________________
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Jennyfur Peregrine
Whatever
Join date: 24 Dec 2003
Posts: 1,151
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07-11-2006 07:13
I've never understood the "the end of second life" threads because I feel the same way Aldo does. You can do the same thing now that you did in Second Life 2 years ago. SL will get bigger, it will evolve and change, people will come and go, but that doesn't mean it's coming to an end. I agree. I also think that fear of change is an inherent human emotion. I've always thrived off change because I get bored easily. I understand concerns about change when it is not completely understood. Its just the scorched earth / villagers with torches mentality that I don't get. If Second Life never changed at all it would have failed long ago. Change is good. -Jennyfur _____________________
~Jennyfur~
http://jennyfurperegrine.wordpress.com/ http://slcc2007.wordpress.com/ Deadly Nightshade Design Studio (Indigo 86,61) Jennyfur's Designs on SLBoutique |
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Lewis Nerd
Nerd by name and nature!
Join date: 9 Oct 2005
Posts: 3,431
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07-11-2006 07:21
Maybe if you give them a couple million dollars in venture capital they will take your theories into consideration. Anyone can throw money at any project they wish. However, I have something far more useful to Linden Lab - enthusiasm, imagination, drive, and the desire to truly create "my world, my imagination" using their game/tool/platform/interverse metanet/phone a friend/whatever. If more people were like me, concentrating on providing a quality experience for people to enjoy, rather than how much money they can make out of SL, then I think it would be a lot better off. Lewis _____________________
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Khamon Fate
fategardens.net
Join date: 21 Nov 2003
Posts: 4,177
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07-11-2006 07:23
I've never understood the "the end of second life" threads because I feel the same way Aldo does. You can do the same thing now that you did in Second Life 2 years ago. SL will get bigger, it will evolve and change, people will come and go, but that doesn't mean it's coming to an end. Second Life will be that second (third?) iteration of gridded worlds, an open free for all virtual environment to play and frolic through as you "meet" other imaginary personae for years and years. It's not going away anytime soon. It'll also never be profitable, but always serving as a loss leading demonstration model. I wonder when LL will accept that fact. _____________________
Visit the Fate Gardens Website @ fategardens.net
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stpaulsub Clio
Fear the Bubblegum Gurl!
Join date: 2 Sep 2004
Posts: 607
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07-11-2006 07:39
Anyone can throw money at any project they wish. However, I have something far more useful to Linden Lab - enthusiasm, imagination, drive, and the desire to truly create "my world, my imagination" using their game/tool/platform/interverse metanet/phone a friend/whatever. If more people were like me, concentrating on providing a quality experience for people to enjoy, rather than how much money they can make out of SL, then I think it would be a lot better off. Lewis But what makes you so sure you provide a quality experience? In general Lewis, your vision sorta scares me. While in general i actually do agree with you about over commercialzation i have also seen some of teh most fantastic builds done for commercial uses...so the 2 are not incompatable _____________________
David Valentino: I think I just like to play with the balls |
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Jennyfur Peregrine
Whatever
Join date: 24 Dec 2003
Posts: 1,151
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07-11-2006 07:40
Anyone can throw money at any project they wish. However, I have something far more useful to Linden Lab - enthusiasm, imagination, drive, and the desire to truly create "my world, my imagination" using their game/tool/platform/interverse metanet/phone a friend/whatever. If more people were like me, concentrating on providing a quality experience for people to enjoy, rather than how much money they can make out of SL, then I think it would be a lot better off. Lewis Have you ever considered a lucrative career in stand up comedy? cause I can't stop laughing. _____________________
~Jennyfur~
http://jennyfurperegrine.wordpress.com/ http://slcc2007.wordpress.com/ Deadly Nightshade Design Studio (Indigo 86,61) Jennyfur's Designs on SLBoutique |
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FlipperPA Peregrine
Magically Delicious!
Join date: 14 Nov 2003
Posts: 3,703
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07-11-2006 08:10
There has to be a fundamental shift in the thinking of Linden Labs. The only way I can see that happening is for a new CEO who actually understands the problems that players face, listens to them, and acts on them. I believe the exact opposite of everything Lewis said... AND IT'S LINDEN LAB! SINGULAR! NOT PLURAL! STOP TROLLING! HOW MANY TIMES MUST YOU BE TOLD BEFORE YOU GET IT RIGHT! "Stupid vision." Yeah, and yours is just so glorious. We're tiring of your constantly negative opera. I prefer Harle's comments, she shows why it's important to dream big: Google had a pretty silly and over-reaching vision when they started. And then they kind of reached it. I think it's absolutely awesome that for once a game developer actually wants to accomplish something meaningful instead of just trying to find a way to keep money flowing into their accounts. Is the ultimate goal of SL over-reaching? Hell yes, and I think they know that. But that's sort of the point. Ever heard the old adage, 'Shoot for the stars - even if you miss, you still might land on the moon.' (paraphrased) Regards, -Flip _____________________
Peregrine Salon: www.PeregrineSalon.com - my consulting company
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