LindeX looking a little dodgy

There's over L$100,000,000 up for sale at 263. I don't follow the sizes closely but this seems like a larger number than I am used to by a factor of 2 or 3.

I have trades on 263 that have sat there since the 19th. In the past an offer like that would be filled within 24 hours. Especially during the weekend.

I've heard that buys at 274 are going through in under 2 days. In the past it would take 4 or 5 days .

According to http://secondlife.com/whatis/economy_stats.php Supply Linden has only sold L$10,000,000 this month. Last month he sold L$147,108,549.

What does all this mean? Well, that's the question. I don't want to go back to the miserable old days of fear mongering on the forums over LindeX but I think we're about to see something we haven't seen in over a year. The LindeX could move. More people are selling L$ and less people are buying them. People are cashing out. Soon they won't be prepared to wait so long to convert L$ into US$ and they'll start posting offers at 264, 265, 266. Will Supply Linden step up and buy L$ in order to stabilise the market in the same way he's been selling them to stop it going down? I sincerely doubt it.

That door only swings one way, down at the lab.

It has nothing to do with stability.

Supply Linden only sells, it doesn't/won't buy.

Last I heard (a few months back now in a Q&A with Zee) one measure would be for LL to accept some people's tier in L$ and create a substantial sink.

Not that I see a problem with going back to the exchange rate of L$350/$1 that was around when I joined SL .

Well wasn't the new ad farm policy suppose to come into force next week (1 Oct)?

Possibly that and the mass cash-out are related?

Matthew

We have not heard boo from Jack, since LL backed off on it's licensing of advertisers.

The real stock market is suffering record losses.

Virtual world or not, the LindeX is like the DOW, in many ways.

Stock and money markets only thrive when consumer confidence is high.

I cannot say there is alot of that around SL these days.

with the current economic developments in the US, i personally decided to move my hard-saved L$ balance out of SL and into EURO currency, instead of US$

*since land-for-sale has stayed almost the same only shifting 3..4% up/down, i think i was not the only one ?

.

I agree with Matthew, because as it happened with the casinos, so too will it happen with the ad farms. The ad farmers are getting out what they can.

I did trades at 263 on 20th and today and not waited more than 24 hours for both.

Sell L$ or Buy L$? I'm taking about selling. A buy at that price should go through instantly.

Oops, posted as an alt - Elan

What a great alt though. Do you have a cane and the whole bit? False teeth?

The world economy is my guess.

Im talking about selling. I've never purchased L$ so have no opinion on the buy rate.

Personally I am not yet convinced that the current world wide economic problems will have that much of an inpact on SL. From what I have read the experts are predicting that people will be spending allot less money on travel, holidays and expensive social activities in the immediate future resulting in a big impact to the service industry. My logic is that if everyone is staying home then they will have allot more time to play SL. And rather than spending $100 USD on a good night out, people may be more inclined to spend $10 in SL and just stay in.

I have seen 70-80 millions on the sell side often. I think the boost comes from that big push of islands a few months ago, a lot more tier to pay, a lot more lindens to exhange.

The last couple of months I have had to wait 3-4 days for an order to complete.

The lindex did move recently, just about a month ago. The spread moved from 275-264 to 274-263 right after all those islands were sold.

I think the economy a a general whole has not grown as fast as the land growth. Once it catches up, I think we should return to the usual waiting time for sales to go through.

Just my two cents.

Thats not ever gonna happen.


It would be the same thing as Supply Linden Buying after all.


The only thing they will do is reduce how mach L$ supply linden sells, until the price looks more normal.

And if that means there becomes a new "normal". My guess is their response will be "Oh well"

We have already been seeing the impact in SL for months and many businesses report even greater decreases in sales this month. All you have to do is look at LL's own economic statistics to see the decreases. Look at the chart for PMLF BUSINESSES

http://secondlife.com/whatis/economy-graphs.php

Uhh, it's either going up or completely flat depending on how you look at it. Besides I'm talking about changes that have occurred in the last week not in the last 6 months.

well its true it is/ has been fairly flat for a long time

which is discouraging considering the Population has grown.

The question I always ask myself is has the population grown?

1. How many new ones are free alts?
2. How many log in once and never come back?
3. How many older players leave vs how many new ones stay?

LLs population numbers have always been trash

Heck I bet games like TIny Empires and Bloodlines were responsible for the biggest alt infusion the population has had since camping was invented.

Any way you look at it concurrency numbers are rising. It's popular to blame that on bots but I think that's just wishful thinking on the part of the SL haters. Traffic bots don't really serve any great purpose anymore and people are probably (guessing) slowly moving away from them.

Ohh its definitely grown ---

You are right the numbers are garbage ...

But somewhere between no growth and the official numbers lies the actual growth.

The Concurrency is still up and probably more than just the bots ..

And there definitely are more stores, venues and other places than before

Someone is using all the new land.

Ah but I said nothing about bots.

Concurrency seems to go in waves. Dropping off some in the summer and rising again in the fall and winter. That has always been true. So part of the raise in concurrency is just seasonal. Some is the servers are believe it or not behaving better than they did say a year ago so less people are logging out in frustration. and Yes some is new people.

my point though was that basing anything on LLs population numbers is probably wasted effort.

Haha, sorry just an auto reflex whenever someone mentions population. Or pretty much anything to be honest. It always reminds me of bots.

Seeing as how the sell side jumped from 50 million to 100 million in the week following the ad farm rules being finalized (Sep 12 blog post), that could well be due to selling out. If it drops back down on or around Oct 1st, with a distinct loss of ad farms at the same time off the grid, then it will be more certain that was the cause.

/me goes to check the ad farm plot on my home sim....

Oh yeah! definite sell out... several of the 16m plots are now 99 or 150L.
Some are still at stupid prices, and violating the new rules (floating and rotating prims),
but definitely a change since last week.

All I know is, that if you want a quick sale...set your price to $264L. If you're selling $100,000L @ $264L, you will only lose $1.39US on the transaction, and have your funds in about 5 mins.