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Land Bubble has Officially Burst, and LL Pours it On!

Cristalle Karami
Lady of the House
Join date: 4 Dec 2006
Posts: 6,222
06-06-2008 13:39
From: Qie Niangao
Right. I don't even see how they can do much after the continents are essentially complete.

When asked about the failed auctions, Jack did mention the possibility of LDPW going into the unsold sims and adding some content to make them more marketable. But I just look at vast swaths of Satori, Nautilus, and Corsica with no provision for any roads at all, and wonder how any of that will ever be worth anything. (Jeogeot at least got a few paths that could be roads someday.)

I remember there was a time that people just wanted to buy the most sq.m. the sim could hold, for resale, back when "flat green" was worth something. And there was (and is) concern about what happens to the oddly-shaped bits of land bordering roadways. But these days, featureless Mainland is a losing proposition, and it's kind of hard to see what will turn that around.

I think that abandoned land can be used for this purpose. LL and the moles can start creating interesting spaces left on abandoned plots, and start publicizing them as part of a teleportation trail. Develop a story for the continents and keep the attractions in theme. The only substantial difference between Bay City and a privately-developed project is publicity. Those plots would never have sold for that amount otherwise.
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Avion Raymaker
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Join date: 18 Jun 2007
Posts: 980
06-06-2008 14:45
From: Sling Trebuchet
OK, but
"renting and real estate crumbled" and "everyone got fed up and left" are two separate things and they are not related to each other for the general population.

Renting a build makes sense for someone who doesn't have the skills and/or attitude to rezz a prefab or build their own.
There's always going to be a demand for some of
- Build renting
- Well scripted house rezzers that advise the user and keep a build level and within parcel boundaries
- Help (paid or unpaid)

Real Estate as a business is nonsense in SL, particularly when LL are printing more land.
Most people in "the property business" just flip land.
Flattening a piece of what used to be interesting ground and sticking down a few prims that the buyer is going to zap takes a few seconds. It isn't "development".


You want to sell your land? Set it for sale. No lawyers, contracts, viewings, keyholders and all the complications that we pay others to handle on our behalf in RL.
You want to buy land? Go look, click and buy.

When the First Land program was running, people got started out without the aid of the "property business". I did, and all around me in that sim and other sims all around others did the same. It was no big deal. I understand that the main reason the program ended was that it was being raped by the land barons.
LL could easily start selling direct again, and this time at market prices. They could either sell at a set price or just auction everything.
They'd be in competition with land dealers?? Who the hell owes land dealers a living? Most that I have talked to are quite OK people, but we don't owe them a living.


It would be refreshing if the only way to make a few dollars in SL was to provide a real service or create content.
I'd include build rentals in 'real service', because some people are just not cut out to build.


If large numbers of people get fed up and leave, it won't be because they can't make money in the land business. It won't be because there's nothing to do or wonders to see.
They'll only get fed up if the thing continues to be broken.


I don't think I'm expressing my concern very well. In fact I'm on record as having a pretty rotten attitude toward land-flippers.

I'm thinking more in terms of there just being way too much land vs. the amount of people around to use it. I probably shouldn't have used the term "Real Estate." What I meant by that is what people from Anshe all the way down to little ol' me do: fix up property into attractive communites and rent it out. Maybe SL can do without that industry, or maybe too much land won't hurt the business the way I think it will, but that's where my concern is coming from.
Sling Trebuchet
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Join date: 20 Jan 2007
Posts: 4,548
06-06-2008 15:22
From: Avion Raymaker
I don't think I'm expressing my concern very well. In fact I'm on record as having a pretty rotten attitude toward land-flippers.

I'm thinking more in terms of there just being way too much land vs. the amount of people around to use it. I probably shouldn't have used the term "Real Estate." What I meant by that is what people from Anshe all the way down to little ol' me do: fix up property into attractive communites and rent it out. Maybe SL can do without that industry, or maybe too much land won't hurt the business the way I think it will, but that's where my concern is coming from.


I don't think that SL can do without people like you.
There will always be a good proportion of people who can't or don't want to rezz prefabs or build their own.
There will always be people who might well be able to follow the instructions in a rezz box, but will suck at terraforming and/or landscaping and/or integrating various elements.
As SL grows into more of a consumer world, the proportion of population who will want things done for them will increase.
It would be great (well, maybe one kind of 'great') if everyone tried their hand at something, but human nature is pretty dependable for some things.

Too much land won't matter because your market won't be interested in buying any.
If anyone wants to compete for your market, then they have to do a lot more than just buy dirt-cheap land. They have to build, and pay tier on empty rental space.

Too much land only becomes a problem for the rental business if the tier doesn't pay for the racks of servers and the bandwidth. Then its a problem for everybody.


While I was looking at a friend's art gallery last night, I got chatting with one of her neighbours. The neighbour has a beach house. My friends current build (it changes a lot) is brick factory but a very well-built one, with interesting exhibits inside.
The neighbour didn't like living beside a factory. She lusted for more beach houses along that hillside. Even if the land had cost her L$1/m, she would still pine for neighbouring beach houses.
The neighbour really isn't cut out to be living in unzoned mainland. She and many like her really belong in zoned communities of like minded people. Horses for courses.
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Raymond Figtree
Gone, avi, gone
Join date: 17 May 2006
Posts: 6,256
06-06-2008 15:58
From: Fia Tyne
For those of us who are old land owners, we are screwed if we try and move. I wonder if the Bay City parcels that sold at auction for $L 270,000 will ever drop to $L 4.0/m2. That would be funny haha -- oh wait, I have a Bay City parcel I'm trying to sell :(
Did you buy it with the intention of flipping it? If so, it was a risky move because of the high investment required up front...

Having seem many a mainland sim lose its value overnight when a Robo H. or Max D. showed up with their land carving tools, I knew the danger of land without covenants. It only takes one bad spinning sign to ruin the bunch.
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Argos Hawks
Eclectically Esoteric
Join date: 24 Jan 2007
Posts: 1,037
06-06-2008 18:28
From: Fia Tyne
For those of us who are old land owners, we are screwed if we try and move. I wonder if the Bay City parcels that sold at auction for $L 270,000 will ever drop to $L 4.0/m2. That would be funny haha -- oh wait, I have a Bay City parcel I'm trying to sell :(

I'll give you $L5.0/m2! $10.0/m2 if it's in the Bay City-Argos sim.
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Rene Erlanger
Scuderia Shapes & Skins G
Join date: 28 Sep 2006
Posts: 2,008
06-06-2008 18:54
From: Avion Raymaker
I don't think I'm expressing my concern very well. In fact I'm on record as having a pretty rotten attitude toward land-flippers.

I'm thinking more in terms of there just being way too much land vs. the amount of people around to use it. I probably shouldn't have used the term "Real Estate." What I meant by that is what people from Anshe all the way down to little ol' me do: fix up property into attractive communites and rent it out. Maybe SL can do without that industry, or maybe too much land won't hurt the business the way I think it will, but that's where my concern is coming from.



Have been saying that for months "Way too much land vs regular users"

Part of SL's attraction is it's economy, if Linden Labs are in the process of either dismantling it or screwing it up through bad strategy....you have to wonder about it's future growth in terms of new residents.

It seems to me LL are shooting themselves in the foot by favouring short term gains (More tiers)
Einsman Schlegel
Disenchanted Fool
Join date: 11 Jun 2003
Posts: 1,461
06-06-2008 18:58
From: Karl Herber
If only the minimum parcel size was 512m, 99% of the problems with ad-farms and false pricing would cease overnight.


Great idea.. :eek:
2k Suisei
Registered User
Join date: 9 Nov 2006
Posts: 2,150
06-06-2008 22:00
From: Avion Raymaker
No doubt that's true. But those industries don't exist in a vacuum. If renting and real estate crumbled and everyone got fed up and left, I can't believe that could be good for any other industry. I'm still doing fine, and I'm not hugely concerned about what my land is worth, because I'm using it and none of it is for sale. But there's a limit even to my formerly unlimited patience.


People that leave SL because there's too much cheap land available wont be missed at all. SL will become a much better place without them. They're just sharks in my mind and don't give a damn about SL.

There is no service provided from buying a chunk of land and reselling it at a higher price.

Now if somebody is buying land, zoning it and renting it out then that's fine. This type of land related business will always be welcome because the land owner is providing a servce.
2k Suisei
Registered User
Join date: 9 Nov 2006
Posts: 2,150
06-06-2008 22:13
From: Avion Raymaker
I don't think I'm expressing my concern very well. In fact I'm on record as having a pretty rotten attitude toward land-flippers.

I'm thinking more in terms of there just being way too much land vs. the amount of people around to use it. I probably shouldn't have used the term "Real Estate." What I meant by that is what people from Anshe all the way down to little ol' me do: fix up property into attractive communites and rent it out. Maybe SL can do without that industry, or maybe too much land won't hurt the business the way I think it will, but that's where my concern is coming from.


It's probably a little questionable (yet understandable) to want to see the mainland suffer in order to protect your own little business model.

It's true that some people are only renting land from estate owners because of the anarchy on the mainland. But even if LL were to fix the problem by releasing lots of cheap land then I think there will still be a need for folks like you.

There will always be some people that prefer to rent and want to be a part of a small zoned community. and so you can always tap into that need and provide a service.
Snowflake Fairymeadow
Registered User
Join date: 21 May 2006
Posts: 704
06-06-2008 22:22
From: Fia Tyne
I can't believe I'm seeing this, after all these years: land, good land in large chunks, is selling for under 4.0L/m2, I'm even seeing prices at 3.8 or less.

Unbelievably, Linden Labs is pouring dozens of sims on still, even with supply clearly outstripping demand by a wide margin.

I'm glad I'm not a land speculator, mainland has just cratered.

I guess this is good news for the ad farmers though, with so much cheap land to cut up, spoil and dump the leftovers.

I wonder who's going to pay for the electricity on the new servers though.


Just a few weeks ago anyone who had a negative opinion of LL's handling of the land market was dismissed by you as "mindless twaddle". I guess now that it affects you personally, your opinion has changed?
Tegg Bode
FrootLoop Roo Overlord
Join date: 12 Jan 2007
Posts: 5,707
06-06-2008 22:36
From: Fia Tyne
For those of us who are old land owners, we are screwed if we try and move. I wonder if the Bay City parcels that sold at auction for $L 270,000 will ever drop to $L 4.0/m2. That would be funny haha -- oh wait, I have a Bay City parcel I'm trying to sell :(

Unfortunatley if one older landholder in a sim moves the adfarmers have got their foot in and it's curtains for the rest as well, thye are really pushing into the older northern continent now, I've just about got out of my sim the old timers have either sold off or abandoned, leaving only the crazy mall owner to enjoy his new neighbours.
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SuezanneC Baskerville
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Join date: 22 Dec 2003
Posts: 14,229
06-07-2008 00:34
I bought a little parcel of land a little while ago. I think that's what really caused the land prices to plummet. That's what happened the last time I bought land. :D
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Fia Tyne
Registered User
Join date: 14 Jun 2005
Posts: 111
06-07-2008 01:13
From: Snowflake Fairymeadow
Just a few weeks ago anyone who had a negative opinion of LL's handling of the land market was dismissed by you as "mindless twaddle". I guess now that it affects you personally, your opinion has changed?

LOL I guess your memory is failing -- better have that checked out. The comment had nothing to do with land -- it was about some worthless blog post about someone who was banned. Funny how the banned always scream it is unfair. Go do a search, Snowflake, for "mindless twaddle" in the "Resident-Run Websites" forum and see for yourself.

So.... no, my opinion about Linden Labs banning people who deserve it has not changed.
Fia Tyne
Registered User
Join date: 14 Jun 2005
Posts: 111
06-07-2008 01:14
From: SuezanneC Baskerville
I bought a little parcel of land a little while ago. I think that's what really caused the land prices to plummet. That's what happened the last time I bought land. :D

Ok, you owe me $1,000,000.
Qie Niangao
Coin-operated
Join date: 24 May 2006
Posts: 7,138
06-07-2008 04:12
From: Cristalle Karami
[re: Linden content on landlocked, roadless sims on newer continents]I think that abandoned land can be used for this purpose. LL and the moles can start creating interesting spaces left on abandoned plots, and start publicizing them as part of a teleportation trail. Develop a story for the continents and keep the attractions in theme. The only substantial difference between Bay City and a privately-developed project is publicity. Those plots would never have sold for that amount otherwise.
Yeah, actually, roads still just barely work at sim-crossings anyway, so a "TP-Trail" makes sense. And I could totally get into a "storyline" for each continent, and be inspired to build something theme-appropriate. (Well, as long as it doesn't involve vampires--a theme which always gives me fits of uncontrollable giggling.)

There is one other big thing they did right at Bay City besides publicity: they prevented parcel subdivision, so no really good opportunities for ad/extortion farms. Lots of hideous builds at the moment, with good reason to suspect the frustrated nth-generation flippers are just extorting the neighbors from full-sized parcels, but that may calm down eventually. Or not... and frankly, I kind of hope not... and that it ends up tanking the Bay City property values, just like it does the rest of Mainland. The Lindens have been spared the pain of ad/extortion schemes in their little Village enclave (the few that ever visit their plots there), but if even their Big New Thing is trashed beyond repair, maybe they'll finally freakin' *do* something.
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Plato Cochrane
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Join date: 25 Oct 2006
Posts: 234
06-07-2008 05:45
Yay! cheap land--now if they can just do something about tier I'd be all set.
Puppet Shepherd
New Year, New Tricks
Join date: 14 Feb 2007
Posts: 725
06-07-2008 07:10
From: Qie Niangao
I have way too much to say on the adfarming issue to stay on topic, except that I do not like the idea of disposable "land." Maybe I'm just hopelessly deluded, but I really want to think about these pixels as if they were land--emphatically *not* that I think they should appreciate in value or anything like that, but that I want to feel like what I'm building on this stuff is actually improving something, not just a fun little diversion while I wait for the adfarmers to f*ck it all up and force me to move somewhere else. Again, maybe I'm just stuck with an inappropriate mindset, but really, if we're ceding Mainland to be just toilet paper for adfarmers, I'm done with owning any of it, and quite possibly done with owning anything at all in-world.


Well, Qie, if you're "hopelessly deluded", you're not the only one - I feel that way a lot too. It's giving me SL-exhaustion.

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Thanks for posting that information - I look forward to learning more. Just briefly checking the chat transcript there, I am ever so pleased to learn that an extorter who threatened me via IM for posting her name on a 3rd party site for land cutting received her very own temporary suspension from LL. I wonder how many other people she harrassed. Too bad she's already back with new alts. Wouldn't it be nice if LL would assign "caseworkers" of a sort to monitor the problem children?
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Marianne McCann
Feted Inner Child
Join date: 23 Feb 2006
Posts: 7,145
06-07-2008 12:04
From: SuezanneC Baskerville
I bought a little parcel of land a little while ago. I think that's what really caused the land prices to plummet. That's what happened the last time I bought land. :D


Shoulda done it earlier ;-)

From: Qie Niangao
Yeah, actually, roads still just barely work at sim-crossings anyway, so a "TP-Trail" makes sense. And I could totally get into a "storyline" for each continent, and be inspired to build something theme-appropriate. (Well, as long as it doesn't involve vampires--a theme which always gives me fits of uncontrollable giggling.)


They could do a whole storyline involving an explorer, discovering new lands as they are created -- say, a block of city sime, then a volcanic region, then some snow sims... then a whole continent where you could have a blog describing what you find... ;-)

Mari
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Snowflake Fairymeadow
Registered User
Join date: 21 May 2006
Posts: 704
06-07-2008 19:25
From: Fia Tyne
LOL I guess your memory is failing -- better have that checked out. The comment had nothing to do with land -- it was about some worthless blog post about someone who was banned. Funny how the banned always scream it is unfair. Go do a search, Snowflake, for "mindless twaddle" in the "Resident-Run Websites" forum and see for yourself.

So.... no, my opinion about Linden Labs banning people who deserve it has not changed.


Oh, you are correct, it wasn't about the land market in particular, it was about anyone who chooses to express a negative opinion abput LL in general. It was labeled by you as libel or slander or something when someone chooses to express their opinoin on their own 3rd party blog.

I don't need to do a search for "mindless twaddle" when I can simply search under your username instead.

Anyway, doesn't really matter to me, and I am not surprised that you are squawking now that something affects you personally. Karma is a beeyotch, isn't she?
Cristalle Karami
Lady of the House
Join date: 4 Dec 2006
Posts: 6,222
06-07-2008 19:45
From: Qie Niangao
[in response to discussion about using reclaimed land for Linden content on landlocked sims without roads]Yeah, actually, roads still just barely work at sim-crossings anyway, so a "TP-Trail" makes sense. And I could totally get into a "storyline" for each continent, and be inspired to build something theme-appropriate. (Well, as long as it doesn't involve vampires--a theme which always gives me fits of uncontrollable giggling.)

There is one other big thing they did right at Bay City besides publicity: they prevented parcel subdivision, so no really good opportunities for ad/extortion farms. Lots of hideous builds at the moment, with good reason to suspect the frustrated nth-generation flippers are just extorting the neighbors from full-sized parcels, but that may calm down eventually. Or not... and frankly, I kind of hope not... and that it ends up tanking the Bay City property values, just like it does the rest of Mainland. The Lindens have been spared the pain of ad/extortion schemes in their little Village enclave (the few that ever visit their plots there), but if even their Big New Thing is trashed beyond repair, maybe they'll finally freakin' *do* something.

The prevention of parcel subdivision (under 512?) is good but only if you change the group bonus model. Maybe an extra 512 tier free per 4096 held would be an appropriate model.
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Darien Caldwell
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Join date: 12 Oct 2006
Posts: 3,127
06-07-2008 20:19
From: Fia Tyne
LOL I guess your memory is failing -- better have that checked out. The comment had nothing to do with land -- it was about some worthless blog post about someone who was banned. Funny how the banned always scream it is unfair. Go do a search, Snowflake, for "mindless twaddle" in the "Resident-Run Websites" forum and see for yourself.

So.... no, my opinion about Linden Labs banning people who deserve it has not changed.


Problem is I wasn't banned my friend was, and you acted like a tool when I tried to help him get his very unjust ban reversed, which eventually it was. Go back to your blog Prok.
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Fia Tyne
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Join date: 14 Jun 2005
Posts: 111
06-08-2008 09:01
From: Darien Caldwell
Problem is I wasn't banned my friend was, and you acted like a tool when I tried to help him get his very unjust ban reversed...
In which case, your blog post was still wrong, and still libelous.
Fia Tyne
Registered User
Join date: 14 Jun 2005
Posts: 111
06-08-2008 09:05
From: Snowflake Fairymeadow
Oh, you are correct... It was labeled by you as libel or slander or something when someone chooses to express their opinoin on their own 3rd party blog... Karma is a beeyotch, isn't she?

Calling someone a thief IS actually libel, even on a "3rd party blog", as well as being distasteful. As for Karma -- I'm now $110,000L richer, I guess my Karma's good...

But I'm glad you know I'm right.
Shirley Marquez
Ethical SLut
Join date: 28 Oct 2005
Posts: 788
06-08-2008 09:10
From: Elgyfu Wishbringer
Or put in intermediate banding. If you have 1/2 a sim and just want a tiny bit more, you still have to double your tier - that is harsh.


The way around that is to create another avatar to buy the additional land. But it would be better to have an easier way.
Elanthius Flagstaff
Registered User
Join date: 30 Apr 2006
Posts: 1,534
06-08-2008 09:46
From: Shirley Marquez
The way around that is to create another avatar to buy the additional land. But it would be better to have an easier way.



Don't forget you can also rent pure tier by the sqm direct from certain residents such as myself. It's a pretty simple solution to this problem.
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