Joachimsthalers, Archduke Sigismund and the Lösers!

Here we are, yet again in early 2009, with the media foretelling the doom of our little land.

We laugh at that, but, who knows? It's one of those predictions that always comes true, sooner or later. How can one not successfully predict the demise of something?

Ashes to ashes, dust to dust, pixels to pixels...

...it's hard to go wrong foretelling "the End." At very least, one gets to be a Harbinger of Doom if one predicts things a bit early.

You weren't right, right away... but wait! You were in the End! See? See!? Of course you might be 100 years too early and totally off your crock, but, that's another matter entirely.

* * * * *

Predictions are funny things.

Not many people sold short on real estate, foreign currencies, oil companies, or their stock in just about anything at about this time last year. And yet... Doom was Coming! For, ah, real life.

Oddly enough, that prediction was missed by just about everybody. Last year at about this time, Iraq was supposed to be Vietnam all over again. Hillary was going to win. Miley would never be bare backed on the cover of Vanity Fair.

* * * * *

So here's the question, and it's one of those Butterfly Effect questions, but perhaps one that we are uniquely poised in history to answer.

What will our impact upon history be?

That might sound a bit grandiose, but it isn't, really.

Consider that modern day normal sized books, for example, were pretty much the creation of one guy: Aldus Manutius, who lived in the 15th century. It was a Good Idea.

Here's another one: "dollars" as we know them, trace back historically to one town, Joachimsthaler, where they were first minted as silver "thalers" (from Joachimsthaler) in the 14th century.

With more silver, and thus better base value than questionable European currencies of the time, it was a Good Idea.

Others picked up on this idea such as Archduke Sigismund of Tirol, who minted a 'half Guldengroschen' in similar fashion, and thus the idea of a reliable currency was established.

The name "thaler" tended to stick, though, for all such coins; and the big denominations of thalers took on the name "Löser" due to one mammoth gold version of a Thaler minted in Hamburg. Oddly enough, the term Löser didn't quite stick (which I personally find historically disappointing).

So now starting all from one guy minting we had thalers, Dutch daalers, Slovene tolars, and all manner of "dollars" today.

No, it wasn't the invention of money itself, but wow, what an impact!

* * * * *

So here we are in 2009.

There is a global economic collapse, wild fluctuation in currency markets, bank credit collapse, and Bernie Madoff confesses to a Fifty. Billion. Dollar. Ponzi scheme.

Banks are collapsing left and right, other scammers are being caught from here to Antigua, and the global markets have been paralysed by utter distrust.

Into all this comes the rise of the Chinese QQ coin, the 'MMOG gold' currencies, and the $L.

Now, these currencies aren't "real" or backed by governments. But what they *absolutely do* is shatter governmental protectionism, and equalise the labour dollar.

When you work for QQ coin, or MMO gold, or $L on the global stage, the true value of your labour rate is competitively, meritoriously measured against the entire global market. Basically measured against anyone who can get online, and put their goods or services on the virtual table. That includes everyone from committed, skilled amateurs that work to a deadline, to professionals working for free just because they feel like it.

Thus, your efforts and expertise are market~measured against professional programmers in Silicon Valley offices, freelance artists working from home in Germany, and 19 year olds in a Shenzhen internet cafe'.

Sure, it could all have been done without $L or whatnot. But have you ever actually had to *pay* someone for small tasks, who lives 5000 miles away in another country? It's simply, utterly not worth it.

What about Paypal? Well, that's a very good "what about." The issue with paypal is that it deals in *actual currency*, and soon (I am writing this from a USA perspective) paypal transactions will come with 1099 statements.

Most of us using paypal now are already reporting the income properly, 1099 or not (those who don't are going to be in for an incredibly rude surprise later this year, or in 2010).

Virtual worlds have enabled us to be someplace else with people thousands of miles away, communicate and collaborate with them effectively, and what's more... PAY them.

What we are seeing is irrevocable globalisation of the world's information and financial markets; basically all tasks like 'doing your taxes' or 'writing software.'

What's more, it is now for the first time largely outside the control of world governments. Sure, governments could shut down this service or that, or QQ coin or $L or whatever, but not everything. Pandora's box has been opened.

I think five centuries from now, this will be seen as a major watershed moment in world history.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tencent_QQ

http://english.people.com.cn/200701/12/eng20070112_340681.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thaler

I've always thought that SL's micropayment system is the most innovative thing about SL. Anytime people talk about doing away with it, I can only think they must be crazy.

It'll be an interesting day when I can pay for a delivery pizza with L$.

Problem is, you stand half a chance of not getting it......

...and here was me thinking that you were some sort of Engineer, Des, rather than a historian

Interesting point, well made.

.

I remember at one point the Everquest Platinum piece was worth more in terms of US dollars than the Mexican peso.

Pretty soon the L$ will be worth more than Citibank stock.

Linden Dollars are a valid alternative to funds in African bank accounts. Please send any you can spare to me so that I can rescue the brave Nigerian astronaut currently marooned in outer space.

Dan the charitable Man

Absolutely!
A global micropayment system would be the "market~measured" score keeper.



And Desmond's question: "What will our impact upon history be?"
We had a forum in which one of the thread titles was - "Joachimsthalers, Archduke Sigismund and the Lösers!"

Right now Ginko Bonds are worth more than CitiBank stock.

Then you'd become a revered prophet

As cash is on its way into the dustbin of history, yes SL will be fondly remembered for pioneering, now whether they're remembered as pioneers in a Gary Kildall or Bill Gates way is up to the lab, opportunity knocks, they might be giants.

I can already order groceries online with money from Lindens that went directly into my Paypal account. The delivery man comes straight to my door (when I was caring for a sick relative, I did 80% of my shopping this way).

I don't really see your pizza man as too far off, if you think about it.

Is Bill Gates happy?

ok, he's laughing...but is he happy?

I'd have to say, no, the strides which Linden Lab has made with SL will not be remembered.

Bloodlines, on the other hand, will live in infamy!

i believe the same people who are predicting SLs demise are the same ones who have been predicting UO death for the last nine years maybe longer.

UO?

Ultima Online

You wacky gamers and your cute acronymns.

Already here, Pizza Guys has had online ordering for a few weeks now.

The deliverator will get the pizza to you in 30 minutes or less.

it takes roughy 2000L$ to afford a basic carry-out pizza from Dominos.

Thanks to XStreet's speedy paypal cashing out process, and a paypal "mastercard" debit card.. it is actually possible to hand me 2-3k of L$, and within 15 minutes, have that money pay for a pizza.

I've had friends tell me "go to amazon.com, look this item up, and buy it.. here's the L$." (my friend Jad bought me a book this way). My housemates and I have all "gone in together" to get dinner or something, and they've always been willing to accept either L$ or paypal as a method of paying them back.

Heck, I even paid my rent once via paypal.

The trick in SL, of course, is having/making/providing things that people are willing to pay for.. and that's probably the hardest part of business within SL. Supplying a demand.

But I agree, the freely exchangable currency, is probably the one thing that LL really did right.. and whether there's an SL here in a year, or 5 years.. I think we're going to see this economy model crop up again.


P.S. Who says SL is dying, anyways? If my sales are any indication, the soothsayers couldn't be more wrong.

while SL and other online venues virtual cash system can lead to a more balanced division and compensation of labor, I think Des overlooks a few of the major problems that are self defeating to the scheme.

first is that while virtual currencies are not directly regulated by specific governments, they still have to be converted to local currencies at some point to be of real use in the general sense, although trade level transactions mitigate this, in the end they only fuel the company managing them if they don't exit the system. and when they do exit the system, they tend to take some nasty loss percentages in the act of conversion, sometimes from multiple sources, including the local level.

on the note of local currencies, even if the labor pay scale IS balanced within the virtual economies, they see huge disparities in local conversion, where the same amount of virtual cash, does not equate to the same amount of goods and services in all localities. which leads areas where those conversions result in less buying power to potentially be priced out of the game.

furthermore, while the labor value may be equalized in terms of those who are able to access it, it actually would tend towards widening the disparity of those who cannot... the ability to participate is not guaranteed, and given some of the high requirements, participation isn't likely for the vast majority under the current schemes.

and as a final mention, all the current schemes are based heavily in the entertainment sector, which is notoriously unstable to begin with. while the industry as a whole stays viable over a wide range, individual ventures rise and fall like tides.

I can see the leap being made if most of these problems are overcome, but I fear that governmental and middleman sinks really destroy the true hope conveyed in Desmond's post.

I think our impact on history will be in the way we are creating meaningful relationships. I listened to a BBC4 radio discussion a few months ago that assessed human relationships with machines in teh(the) future. It was theorized that humans would slowly develop "other" relationships over the next hundreds of years but that this was beginning now. Robots and computer virtualities would be viable relationships.
When we think about it, sl provides opportunities for many of us to have healthy relationships. For some people, disabilities are barriers in reality but in sl, those disabilities melt away at least temporarily. Loneliness is combatted by a computer screen.
Some of us have such busy lives our only hope for any "immediate" friendship and even sexual pleasure comes with a partner we have met here.
The economy is a doubtful contributor to history. Our human weaknesses, our temptations and our everlasting desire for a partner to share our lives with will be our gift to history.

Bernie Madoff is Nicholas Portocarrero's alt and I claim my 5 L$.

On a serious note: the micropayments system in SL works. Whether it is a sustainable system and/or can expand outside of the confines of SL to become the de facto global internet currency is quite another matter and remains to be seen. No doubt there will be a few contenders along the way in much the same way as we had the old Betamax vs VHS wars. There is defintely a need for an internet micropayments economy. Nature abhors a vacuum and thus it is safe to predict the rise of micropayment-driven global electronic currency.