Is SL stagnating?

Exactly one month ago (Sep 1st) Ezhar posted:



Today I checked his statistic of Oct 1st:



This mean the past 30 days 8124 users have been spotted while the month ago it was 7823. That is only 299 user more, or about 4%. At the same time, there was 3400 NEW user in database.

Does this mean that more than 3000 people who logged into Second Life in August have no longer played Second Life in September?

This look like *extreme* fluctuation to me. Like almost half the people who log in during one given month are just free trial account who won't stay in SL longer than 30 days. Leaving maybe 5000 real player.

Mmmm, any ideas about this? I am just kinda curious what this number all mean

Maybe the prices people were charging for land scared a good number of them off?

I so want land... but i just can't afford the land i want... and yes anshe i knw its a good price already... just pointing out that most ppl don't have that kind of money.. so maybe the above point is valid and ppl are scared off cos they can't have land

September is back to school for a lot of players ... that might have something to do with it.

Today is the first of September...

How does that factor in for the last 30 days? I would say that this will have an inpact 30 day from now, but something else has happened to stifle the influx of noobies, and affect over all customer retention.

Um u mean 1st october right?

Never mind, It appears that I have misplaced a month. LOL! Where did all the time go already? Fades back into the cracks.

Back to school has probably put a bit of a damper on new signups...

Maybe the issue is with customer retention?

The massive bugs in 1.5 would have something to do with it... you have no idea how many "Help! I'm stuck in limbo! This sucks" messages we get in Live Help every day.

THat and the EXTREMELY expensive land prices would both put a damper on SL's growth.

LF

Alot of stuff is expensive in SL, not just land. I really have to search to find things reasonably priced. There is fortunately alot of SL creators that do price things affordable for most, you just have to hunt for them.

MJ

Out of curosity, what do you think a fair price is for an object purchase in SL? The only reason I ask is because I am about to open a new business, and want to keep the prices affordable.

Well, you guys are discounting LL marketing. During the Month of August, I couldn't go to any of the sites I used to visit frequently and not see a Second Life Banner Ad. It took about 5 days for me to finally give in and click on the damn thing from a Stratics site. I mean, I'm glad I did, but my point is that the banner ad blitz seems to have ended in September. So that probably has something to do with the lower numbers.

It really depends on what it is and the quality or how unique.

With all the sims coming online, maybe we will hit a new low in price-per-square-meter. Under 3L per sq/m anyone? 1L?

Hahaha...its amazing to watch the process.

Action ~ Reaction

I will admit that I regularly played Second life and haven't bothered logging in more than once or twice in the past month.

For me it is the technical issues. Just the other day I had an idea for clothing. I created it and went to upload it to the game. I couldn't get in.

For me SL is about developing projects. These are generally long-term. Or they are brainstorming session. Everything I enjoy about Second Life requires consistency. That has been lacking recently.

I don't know if there are others like me, but I won't continue to frustrate myself waiting for basic stability. I am the kind of person that will sit back and wait for the dust to clear and maybe give it a try when it is fixed.

Hmmm, maybe LL pulled back on their ads a bit because they do want to work on bugs and also give things a chance to catch up (to the new growth). However, if Ezhar's numbers truly reflect the number of players who are frequenting SL, and it's clearly dropping, it's interesting that the Lindens just released a bunch of new land. I think Maxx is right on when he says we may see a return to pre-1.2 era land prices. Ahhhh, L$1/m public land, I remember it well...

One thing not mentioned above i would like to point out, that hopefully will be reduced with an addition done by LL in 1.5.5 is ALT accounts. I have a feeling that they have been gamed quite a bit, Now that accounts/credit card are going to be restrained...i think those join/active numbers will become more realisitic in time. Won't work completely but it will help to some degree.

I'm not in the newbie area often, but I did hear that quite a few people who came here from TSO and There have left.

The feeling was one of overwhelming opportunities and overwhelming software.

They felt that the trial period of one week was not long enough; they felt that the building tools were too complicated (without instruction and/or mentorship) -- and believe it or not, they didn't know what to do -- they were used to having pre-programmed things to do daily.

Some were taken advantage of with land deals -- turning their taste sour.

Some were blown away with the teleport / login bugs that frustrated the hell out of them.

Many were appalled that it would cost them $100USD for a piece of land to call their own -- then the daunting task of building their own home.

Please remember when you meet a newbie -- that SL can be both eye-opening, overwhelming and frustrating. Also remember that they are very easy prey for quite a few people.

Let's hope they come back, find affordable land, find affordable housing, ask the right questions, and decide that they are tired of having others tell them what to do and decide to forge their own path in SL.

We just need to get Slashdotted again.

Thank you for posting this Lynn. It's very enlightening and a good reminder of how the uninitiated see Second Life when they first encounter it. Not only are the residents here responsible for making the content, we are also depended upon (to a certain degree) to provide initiation and instruction to help new residents get their SL legs (and toes hopefully someday!).

I have great respect for the teachers and helpers here, especially those I have encountered:

Lumiere Noir
Shantilly Lily
Loki Pico
Merwan Marker
and others, just to name a few

And your past event Lynn, The Prehistoric SL 3-Day Festival, was a great occasion for newbies and old timers alike to see a wonderful example of what Second Life has to offer. Good on ya!

i don't remember public land being 1L/sm pre-1.2.

i only ever found 3-6L/sm. nobody don't never tell me nothin around here.

The constant dwell events..and various other problems have slowed interest.. Alot of people like to be able to compete in the buisness side of things and if they can't why bother..whats left hanging and chating or go to events?

Some found it too hard to make that RL$ that was promoted. (takes money to make money)

It wasn't the kind of "GAME" they were looking for. Some people like having game driven goals.

Yes school was another thing..college students..and more returning to normal routines. (Weekends are Still Packed in SL)

New Games came out and new Beta tests.. I am aware of a few long time residents that are bored of SL and have gone off to spend time at somthing else.

So who knows...maybe it will turn around during christmas.
Hopefully they realize one day there is more to SL than RL$ if not then only time will tell.

There was a thread a while back about us residents, who were so inclined, creating game driven goals as part of content creation to help address this sort of need. I will search for that thread and post a link here when I find it.

This would be just the thing to address that particular reason of why those types of gamers may not be staying.

Is "stagnation" a question of less people joining/coming? Or is it a question of less original and creative content inworld, and more tired repetition -- given factors such as cost, learning curves, problematic upgrades, alienation, and the general chaos of a far larger world without an exciting and creative direction?

(Understand that "direction" does -not- equal "government."

I don't if this is just me, but when I initially joined SL I became a little consumed with the game and I found that my RL responsibilities fell somewhat by the wayside. I decided I needed to take a little break (about a month) and get back in balance. Since I've returned, I've gotten a bit addicted again (lol). However, I'm striving to "regulate" my use a bit more...hehe.

Many people may being going thru these phases or may just decide to quit altogether due to a "burnout" cycle. That could be why we're seeing a drop after SL's intial marketing blitz got people to sign up. I've read that other people go thru this cycle in other MMPOG's....

Perhaps this is something that could be addressed in the intitial newbie orientation...idk. Sorta like the "drink responsibily" campaign. Although, it'll prob have as much success...lol. But at least people will be aware it can be an issue.

Just my 2 cents.