Discussion: Is SL's player base growing or contracting?

This is a non-partisan thread to discuss whether or not the SL community at large feels that player base is expanding or contracting.

Personally, I feel the base is in a period of contraction. I believe the intensely buggy new version of SL has led to the loss of players. Additionally, I believe a decent number of players may be in world less (or not at all) due to "back to school" for a large part of the player-base population.

Your thoughts?

Yes, the base is contracting, that is why LL just got an 8 million dollar grant and I still see newbies coming in. The SL map has never been more crowded, and for you to say its contracting is just silly. I really need to ask a question though, your 'market research', what is it based off of?

Well, this player base is certainly expanding. I have got to do something about my diet.

It's growing. Ppl getting private islands in droves. Too bad soo sad land baron. Moohahaha.

http://sl.sdfjkl.org/userdata/birthdate.spy

60-80 people a day, same as a couple months ago, when CNN gave an article about SL.

It's growing. Alot.

And judging by the retention rate (folks who stay past their trial), it would appear to have a near-100% rate of retention. Linden Labs is apparently doing something right.

LF

Actually this game could go thru the roof with the right advertising..."The Sims" did. IT was the best selling game in gaming history except they didn't have the versitality this game does including adult content.

Blake, please please dont tell me your a SIMS refugee.

Oh and btw, the sims expected to hit 150,000 users in the first 3 months they capped out at a mere 55,000 and were on a down swing when I left.

In addition in the defense of LL they have advertised ...they have advertised a lot or they wouldnt be getting an 8mill shot in the arm to keep it going vs being bought out by EA games.

Shadow

blake, you have confused "sims" with "the sims online". the original game was the best selling computer game of all time.

I think he may be referring to the Sims and its many expansion packs, as opposed to the Sims Online. While TSO did not do nearly as well as expected, the Sims (and now the Sims 2) have attracted millions of users, with very creative advertising. Ultimately, the failure of TSO was not allowing customized content, and not responding to players. Any online environment that does not provide new and compelling content on a regular basis, or get out the way and let players provide it is doomed to fail. On both counts, Second Life succeeds beautifully - you can't get more much more user-created than what we have, and Linden Lab has always been incredibly responsive. I am not sure if a general market advertising campaign a la the Sims would work well though - as great as SL is, it is still very complex for the new user - especially the types of new users that a commercial would bring in.

I totaly agree Cris and thats why I left TSO. But if thats what he was refering to was "The Sims" then thats totaly ambigious as those are not "Online" games and cannot be effectively comparied.

Apples to Apples

and

Oranges to Oranges

Apples to Oranges leads to a nasty Juice.

Shadow

Agreed, they are two different markets.

Just as online games and SecondLife are different markets...

I don't have to feed/exercise/mate my avie. I can't get killed by the native rabbits or because the lag was so bad I couldn't see the GIANT HORDE OF SPACEMONSTERS coming at me. Etc, etc.

Hmmm there may be new people coming in but who says they stay for more than trial or 10$ lifer. If you look at the map daily there is less people together cept events most are thinly spread out ..some sims that use to be packed or filled with builds are barren wastes or the people who own the builds have been AFK a very very long time .

Not to say SL is not growing...but look at your Calling Cards Most of the people who have been around 1 yr are on less and less or not at all and conntinues down to 6month range.

Sure lots of people that are new - 4months old but starting to lose alot of the people who believe there is not much more they can do with SL. Other than Build/Tear down wash rinsh repeat...go to club/event after club after club and sell stuff which most look down on now that its a bit harder to sell thier L$.

Sure SL with grow a larger userbase (accounts stay in the system awhile) but it needs things to make people stay. The draw of making RL$ is wearing off some can't make enough L$ to make it worth it and well becomeing harder and harder to sell it and the price keeps dropping.

But hey have fun invite a friend Chrismas is coming.

I agree.

Anshe posted awhile back and it was an excellent subject, sorely ignored.

What can we do to attract more people to SL?

We need to make it compelling beyond mere sex chat. I do not believe entertainment is the Killer APP.

It's got to be education and training. The possibilities there of tackling a trillion dollar world wide education market are practically limitless.

If we could make it all the things everyone wants (voice, swordfighting, classrooms, action-games, RPGs, etc) and advertise that (contest for best mod, like Unreal Tournament 2004's "Make Something Unreal", or some deal with AOL (*shudders and ducks*) or other serious service provider you could get a TON of people, riches, etc.

ask LL they'll answer your question.

when LL is ready they will do more extensive marketing.

remember that LL is going to move to a larger space RSN, and are working on the HAVOK2 engine. both of those are necessary for SL to grow, but while they are in the works making SL grow extensively in that time will not be so good for LL or SL.

the move itself is a big time and energy sink, and having many new users join at that time would make things even more painful for LL.

and it would be better for LL to seek a huge influx of residents after the HAVOK2 update, rather than putting a bunch of new (and uncommitted) users through a major update. established users already have a problem with major updates (just read the forums). the disturbances and difficulties associated with as big a change as HAVOK2 would drive all those new people away - not a desirable result.

LL is not full of people lacking in marketing saavy; rather the opposite. i'm sure they will have a big marketing todo, when they want to do it.

I missed that. RSN? Real Soon Now? Didn't they just do a big move?

I love SL. Everything about it. Except .. that I have no need for it.

LindenLabs and the community can and should make SL so that it's necessary and not just a luxury.

Growing definatly growing always meeting new folks and the majority are very kewl folks eagar to learn everything

Welcome Tom, Wally, Elle, and Dax

I think there are more separate issues being discussed as if they were the same thing.

There is not doubt that SL userbase is growing. There are some people who have not been as active as they were during the summer. This could be the direct result that some people have more activities to take care of in RL when schooltime starts backup in September. Anyone who used to run a BBS (anyone remember those?) will recall that there was always a great surge during the summer months, and right around the Holidays and times when the schools are on vacations/holidays/snow days even. January to Mid Febuary is a hot and heavy time. June through September is probably the biggest. So expansion, if too fast, can be extremely harsh on the current residents as well as people just starting.

Slow steady growth is always going to be better than radical spurts. Word of mouth expansion is good for getting people into the environment because *we the people* have a chance to invite people who we think will enjoy it more. Maybe this will give the Lindens a chance to handle the growth more smoothly and fix the "growing pains" more efficently.

Well, from being here for a while, SL is growing and the amount of individuals who remain within SL is a fairly high amount. Having said that, it comes my own observations and experience. Of four people I have corrupted with SL, three have remained with the game. They infact enjoy it for different reasons. One loves to model and texture, the other models and scripts wacky stuff, and the last is here to just play games and socialize. They are all happy campers. The one that did leave was because of bad performance on his machine (don't worry, I'll get him back )



So not true! There are many things to do within SL that is not based around clubs. Every day I hear of new builds and new attractions within SL. Heck, me and Jack (with the awesome help of Reitsuki) have just opened up Spittoonie this past weekend. I can easily name off 30 other builds of interest that will keep people amused for extended amounts of time and look inside the forums, new projects starting every day!



Well the problem lays in the fact that they came for the wrong reason. If they came here looking for a quick buck, it doesn't exist. Only through effort, imagination and innovation does one have money. One should primarily be coming into SL for the social, creative and fun aspects of the game. Slowly I see the major perps of greed related activities drop as they see their profits dwindling. Quickly, I see the growth of the creators, spectators, consumers and socializers as they see more and more comes to life.

I don't know if I can believe these figures

There is someone born on 1412-01-06 at the bottom of this list

That would be Phoenix Linden.

Ezhar's scanners update the list several times every day. Those are all the people they've detected as of today within the last 30 days.

LF

Why are you worried if SL is growing or contracting? What worries me is that SL is flipping MUTATING! *Runs screaming from the room.*